Search Results (36)

Droughts caused by runoff are an important environmental issue in the context of global climate change, with profound impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and water resource management. To assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological response of watersheds, this study combines the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and MODFLOW (MODular groundwater FLOW model) models to predict future changes in runoff and hydrological drought in watersheds using data from two scenarios under 15 CMIP6 climate models. The results show that: (1) The R² and NSE values of monthly runoff at the Caizuzi station in the Naoli River basin are greater than 0.60 in different periods; (2) the ensemble of climate models after screening can effectively improve the accuracy of runoff simulation and reduce the prediction uncertainty of a single climate model; (3) under different scenarios, the temperature generally increases, the precipitation increases and evapotranspiration increased under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and decreased under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) runoff showed an increasing trend under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the opposite trend under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (5) the frequency of winter runoff droughts decreased in the future period, while the frequency of spring and summer droughts increased, with the change trend being more pronounced under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (6) compared with the baseline period (1965–2014), under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the average annual temperature in the watershed increased by 1.89 °C and 3.22 °C, respectively, and the annual precipitation increased by 32% and 36.19%, respectively, but the summer and autumn runoff decreased; and (7) The SRI-3 model analysis indicates that hydrological droughts will significantly intensify under both future emission scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, droughts will worsen earlier and the abrupt change will occur earlier, while under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, although the abrupt change will occur later, the drought intensity will be higher. The critical drought transition periods are 2030–2047 (SSP5-8.5) and 2045–2055 (SSP2-4.5). This study provides important scientific basis for adaptive water resources management and drought mitigation strategies in cold-region watersheds under future climate scenarios. Full article

In many countries, the irrigation return flow focuses only on surface and subsurface flows. In contrast, South Korea adopts a broader approach, defining the stream return flow as encompassing both quick and delayed return flows, which include subsurface flow and deep percolation. This study proposes redefining the stream return flow to include only the subsurface return flow, excluding deep percolation. We quantified the subsurface return flow and deep percolation using the SWAT-MODFLOW-PADDY (SMP) model, confirming that the current definition overestimated the stream return flow in Korea. The results show that the subsurface return flow accounted for 20% to 60% of the total infiltration, with the remaining 40% to 80% contributing to deep percolation and groundwater recharge. These findings reveal significant regional variations in the subsurface return flow rates, underscoring the limitations of applying a uniform stream return flow rate. We propose that allocated management water, subsurface, and quick return flows should be the primary components considered in stream return flow calculations, as the current practice of including delayed return flow leads to overestimated results. This study highlights the challenges in monitoring the subsurface return flow and the need for region-specific models that account for local conditions such as topography, soil characteristics, and climate. Our findings provide a more accurate approach to estimating the subsurface return flow, which is crucial for improving the efficiency and sustainability of agricultural water management in Korea. Full article

Rapid climate change and increasing water use have led to various problems in small- and medium-sized urban streams during dry periods, such as stream drying, water pollution, and ecological degradation, reducing their physical and ecological functions. Ensuring adequate baseflow and improving water quality during these critical periods are essential for maintaining urban stream health. While previous studies have explored the effects of Low Impact Development (LID) techniques (e.g., green roof, rainwater harvesting system, permeable pavement, infiltration trench) on infiltration and groundwater recharge, they have primarily focused on general flow regimes rather than dry and low-flow periods. This study specifically evaluates the effects of LID techniques on securing baseflow and improving water quality during dry periods, utilizing the SWAT-MODFLOW model and the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) system. The results show that LID techniques reduce peak flow by an average of 27% and secure an additional 43% of baseflow during dry periods. Suspended solids (SS) and total phosphorus (T-P) concentrations were reduced by 15% and 41%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of LID techniques not only in managing stormwater runoff during flood events but also in maintaining baseflow and water quality during dry periods, thus providing valuable insights for sustainable urban watershed management. Full article

The SWAT model primarily investigates sources of water pollution and conducts ecological assessments of surface water in contemporary hydrology and water resources research. To date, there have been limited accomplishments in the study of groundwater resources in China. The MODFLOW model currently primarily simulates groundwater levels and the migration of water quality, depending on the hydrological surface water data in the relevant area. This study aims to investigate the groundwater distribution characteristics of the middle and lower reaches of the Songhua River, a significant agricultural and grain production region in China. The research focuses on the middle and lower reaches of the Songhua River basin in Northeast China and employed the SWAT distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff. The monthly recorded runoff at Tongjiang Station in Jiamusi City was utilized to calibrate the model parameters. Consequently, the MODFLOW model was introduced to compare and assess the simulation outcomes of the SWAT model, ultimately ascertaining the distribution characteristics of shallow groundwater, groundwater recharge, recoverable volume, and groundwater levels in the Songhua River Basin. The findings indicate that: (1) The SWAT model demonstrates efficacy in the study region, achieving R² and NS values of 0.81 and 0.76, respectively, thereby fulfilling the fundamental criteria for scientific research. The MODFLOW model exhibits strong performance in the study region, achieving a periodic R² of 0.98 and a verification R² of 0.97, with the discrepancy between simulated and actual groundwater levels confined to 0.6 m, thereby satisfying the criteria for scientific research. (2) In 2011, 2014, and 2016, the groundwater recharge in the middle and lower sections of the Songhua River was 24.33 × 10⁸ m³, 30.79 × 10⁸ m³, and 32.25 × 10⁸ m³, respectively, aligning closely with the SWAT simulation results, while the average annual groundwater level depth was 8.17 m. (3) In the research area, groundwater recharging occurs primarily by atmospheric precipitation, while drainage predominantly transpires via groundwater as base flow, constituting 81.46%. Secondly, the recharge of shallow groundwater to deep aquifers is around 7.14%, with a minimal share attributed to vadose zone loss, constituting merely 2.1%. (4) From 2010 to 2016, the average groundwater runoff modulus of the middle and lower reaches of the Songhua River basin was 1.005 L/(s·km²), with a total recharge of 216.58 × 10⁸ m³ and a total recoverable amount of 105.11 × 10⁸ m³. The mean yearly supply was 25.11 × 10⁸ m³. The total groundwater recharge was 26.54 × 10⁸ m³ in the driest year (2011) and 33.25 × 10⁸ m³ in the year of most ample water (2016). Full article

To keep groundwater levels stable, Jinan’s government has implemented several water management measures. However, considerable volumes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can enter groundwater via water exchange, impacting groundwater stability. In this study, a SWAT-MODFLOW-RT3D model designed specifically for the Yufu River Basin is developed, and part of the code of the RT3D module is modified to simulate changes in DOC concentrations in groundwater under different artificial recharge scenarios. The ultimate objective is to offer valuable insights into the effective management of water resources in the designated study region. The modified SWAT-MODFLOW-RT3D model simulates the variations of DOC concentration in groundwater under three artificial recharge scenarios, which are (a) recharged by Yellow River water; (b) recharged by Yangtze River water; and (c) recharged by Yangtze River and Yellow River water. The study shows that the main source of groundwater DOC in the basin is exogenous water. The distribution of DOC concentration in groundwater in the basin shows obvious spatial variations due to the influence of infiltration of surface water. The area near the upstream riverbank is the earliest to be affected. With the prolongation of the artificial recharge period, the DOC concentration in groundwater gradually rises from upstream to downstream, and from both sides of the riverbank to the surrounding area. By 2030, the maximum level of DOC in the basin will exceed 6.20 mg/l. The Yellow River water recharge scenario provides more groundwater recharge and less DOC input than the other two scenarios. The findings of this study indicate that particularly when recharge water supplies are enhanced with organic carbon, DOC concentrations in groundwater may alter dramatically during artificial recharge. This coupled modeling analysis is critical for assessing the impact of recharge water on groundwater quality to guide subsequent recharge programs. Full article

Groundwater is a primary source of drinking water; however, groundwater depletion constitutes a common phenomenon worldwide. The present research aims to quantify groundwater depletion in three aquifers in Greece, including the porous aquifers in the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf, Mouriki, and the Marathonas basin. The hypothesis is to reverse the phenomenon by adopting an environmentally acceptable methodology. The core of the suggested methodology was the simulation of groundwater using MODFLOW-NWT and the application of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) by using water from small dams after the generation of hydropower. Surface run-off and groundwater recharge values were obtained from the ArcSWAT simulation. The predicted future climatic data were obtained from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and the climate model REMO2009. Groundwater flow simulations from 2010 to 2020 determined the existing status of the aquifers. The simulation was extended to the year 2030 to forecast the groundwater regime. In all three sites, groundwater depletion occurred in 2020, while the phenomenon will be exacerbated in 2030, as depicted in the GIS maps. During 2020, the depletion zones extended 11%, 28%, and 23% of the aquifers in Mouriki, the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf, and the Marathonas basin, respectively. During 2030, the depletion zones will increase to 50%, 42%, and 44% of the aquifers in Mouriki, the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf, and the Marathonas basin, respectively. The simulation was extended to 2040 by applying MAR with the water from the existing dams as well as from additional dams. In all sites, the application of MAR contributed to the reversal of groundwater depletion, with a significant amount of hydropower generated. Until 2040, the application of MAR will reduce the depletion zones to 0.5%, 9%, and 12% of the aquifers in Mouriki, the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf, and the Marathonas basin, respectively. Apart from over-pumping, climatic factors such as long periods of drought have exacerbated groundwater depletion. The transformation of dams to mini-scale hydropower facilities combined with MAR will benefit clean energy production, save CO₂ emissions, and lead to an economically feasible strategy against groundwater depletion. Full article

This research delves into the crucial role of groundwater in underpinning ecosystems and human resilience amidst drastic and unpredictable climate change, particularly as water resources face increasing sustainability concerns due to population surges and climate change. Utilizing a combined approach of SWAT-MODFLOW models, we estimate the streamflow discharge and groundwater recharge in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan. These models allow evaluation of the distribution and proportion of recharge areas as well as the accuracy and the potential influence of future climate change scenarios on groundwater recharge. The findings show a strong correlation between the simulation and actual observations, evidenced by the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) of 0.920 and 0.846 for calibration and validation in the Choushui River, and 0.549 and 0.548 for the Pei-Kang River, respectively. The model demonstrates a reliable representation of the watershed response, supported by robust statistical performance. The analysis reveals the variable impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge, dependent on the chosen scenario and period. Some scenarios indicate that the maximum observed increase in groundwater recharge is 66.36% under the RCP2.6 scenario in the long-term period (2061–2080), while the minimum observed increase is 29.67% under the RCP4.5 scenario in the initial time frame; however, all demonstrate a decrease ranging from 23.05% to 41.92% across different RCPs in the impact of climate change over time, suggesting a potential long-term decrease in the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge. This study provides indispensable insights into the spatial hotspots in the top fan and the potential range of impact rates of climate change on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of continuous research and the thorough evaluation of multiple scenarios. Moreover, we establish a primary framework for using a top-ranked MIROC5 projection of general circulation models (GCMs) to delineate an essential premise that facilitates the advanced exploration of alternative scenario augmentations, bolstering the comprehensive investigation of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge. It is proposed that these findings serve as a guidepost for sustainable water resource management and policy-making in the face of climate change and escalating water demand. Full article

To address the issue of seasonal water resource shortages in Nanchang City, a multi-system coupling socio-hydrology simulation method was proposed. This approach involves dynamically integrating a centralized socio-economic model with a distributed surface water groundwater numerical model to explore the intricate relationships between the socio-economic system, the surface water–groundwater integrated system, and the outcomes related to seasonal water resource shortages. Taking Nanchang City as an example, this study conducted research on the water resource supply and demand balance, as well as the groundwater emergency supply, using the multi-system coupling model. Three scenarios were established: status quo, developing, and water-saving. The results show that with the increasing total water demand of social and economic development, the severity of the water resource shortage will be most pronounced in 2030. The minimum water resources supply and demand ratios for the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios are projected to be 0.68, 0.52, and 0.77, respectively. To meet residents’ water needs during drought conditions, emergency groundwater supply efforts are investigated. According to the simulation results, groundwater emergency supply would increase the total population by 24.0 thousand, 49.4 thousand, and 11.2 thousand people, respectively, in the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios. In the water-saving scenario, the Youkou and Xiebu water sources can serve as suitable emergency water sources. In the status quo scenario, the Youkou water source is the most viable emergency water source. However, in the developing scenario, relying solely on any single water source for emergency supply could have an irreversible impact on the aquifer. Therefore, considering the simultaneous use of multiple water sources is recommended, as it can fulfill water demands while ensuring the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources. Full article

In recent years, due to various anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture and livestock, the presence of nitrogen-associated contaminants has been increasing in surface- and groundwater resources. Among these, the main compounds present in groundwater are ammonia, nitrite, and nitrate. However, it is sometimes difficult to assess such effects given the scarcity or lack of information and the complexity of the system. In the current study, a methodology is proposed to assess nitrate in groundwater from diffuse sources considering spatiotemporal patterns of hydrological systems using a coupled SWAT/MODFLOW/MT3DMS model. The application of the model is carried out using a simplified simulation scheme of hydrological and agricultural systems because of the limited spatial and temporal data. The study area includes the Cuitzeo Lake basin in superficial flow form and the Morelia–Querendaro aquifer in groundwater flow form. The results within the methodology are surface runoff, groundwater levels, and nitrate concentrations present in surface- and groundwater systems. The results indicate that the historical and simulated nitrate concentrations were obtained within acceptable values of the statistical parameters and, therefore, are considered adequate. Full article

In regions with arid and semi-arid climates, water consumption for agricultural irrigation is much higher than that used for urban and industrial purposes. Intensive irrigation plays a vital role in influencing the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Understanding the impact of irrigation on the local hydrological cycle is of great significance for maintaining regional food production and -security. In order to study the impact of irrigation on the regional hydrological cycle, the present study employed the SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model to analyze the Weigan River Basin from 2002 to 2016. In the modeling process, detailed agricultural management measures were considered, including the zoning of crop types, amount of irrigation water for different crops, irrigation methods, and different sources of irrigation water. Before coupling, each model was set, calibrated, and validated separately. After coupling, the irrigation pumps and drainage units were mapped with the SWAT automatic irrigation and subbasins. Calibration and validation studies showed that the SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model could simulate the river flow and groundwater levels in the Weigan River Basin well. The model simulation results showed that the sources of water in the soil included groundwater irrigation (1147.5 mm) and surface water irrigation (68.4 mm), as well as precipitation and snowmelt recharge (97.62 mm). The groundwater balance was influenced by the river leakage (75.6 mm), lateral inflow from surrounding areas (3.6 mm), unsaturated zone infiltration (197.7 mm), and irrigation pumping (1275 mm). When compared with the scenario without irrigation, the surface runoff, groundwater infiltration, soil moisture content, and evapotranspiration increased by 7.9%, 3.2%, 4.1%, and 2.3%, respectively. Irrigation activities increased the soil moisture content and permeability, resulting in more groundwater recharge and evaporation, as well as a higher surface runoff. This model provides guidance for evaluating drought irrigation systems in future sustainable water resource management. Full article

The Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) of central Canada plays a crucial role in the Canadian Prairies. Yet, climate change and human action constitute a real threat to its hydrological processes. This study aims to evaluate and analyze groundwater spatial and temporal dynamics in the SRB. Groundwater information was derived and compared using two different approaches: (1) a mathematical modeling framework coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Modular hydrologic model (MODFLOW) and (2) gravimetric satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its follow-on (GRACE-FO). Both methods show generalized groundwater depletion in the SRB that can reach −1 m during the study period (2002–2019). Maximum depletion appeared especially after 2011. The water balance simulated by SWAT-MODFLOW showed that SRB could be compartmented roughly into three main zones. The mountainous area in the extreme west of the basin is the first zone, which is the most dynamic zone in terms of recharge, reaching +0.5 m. The second zone is the central area, where agricultural and industrial activities predominate, as well as potable water supplies. This zone is the least rechargeable and most intensively exploited area, with depletion ranging from +0.2 to −0.4 m during the 2002 to 2011 period and up to −1 m from 2011 to 2019. Finally, the third zone is the northern area that is dominated by boreal forest. Here, exploitation is average, but the soil does not demonstrate significant storage power. Briefly, the main contribution of this research is the quantification of groundwater depletion in the large basin of the SRB using two different methods: process-oriented and satellite-oriented methods. The next step of this research work will focus on the development of artificial intelligence approaches to estimate groundwater depletion from a combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO and a set of multisource remote sensing data. Full article

Accurate hydrological simulations are crucial for managing water resources and promoting sustainable agriculture in submerged paddy agricultural watersheds. The SWAT-MODFLOW, which couples the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Modular Groundwater Flow (MODFLOW) model, is a widely used tool for hydrologic simulations that consider surface water and groundwater (SW-GW) interactions. However, it falls short of effectively simulating the hydrological processes of submerged rice paddy field areas. To address this, we developed the hourly SWAT-MODFLOW-PADDY model, which enables integrated surface and groundwater simulations and effectively represents the hydrological responses of submerged paddy fields to high-resolution rainfall data. Our findings demonstrated that the hourly SWAT-MODFLOW-PADDY model could dynamically simulate soil moisture and runoff patterns in submerged paddy fields. Notably, the developed model showed enhanced performance throughout the entire period for hourly flow in the watershed, with an average coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.75, Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.76, and percent bias (PBIAS) of 13.22 compared to the original model (R² = 0.62, NSE = 0.70, PBIAS = 48.21). The model’s performance in predicting water quality was improved, and it highlighted the significant impact of complex hydrological mechanisms within submerged paddy fields on the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge and stream water volumes exchanged through SW-GW interactions. Given these promising results, the SWAT-MODFLOW-PADDY model could be a valuable resource for managing submerged paddy-dominated agricultural watersheds across various climates and regions. Full article

Recharge is a crucial section of water balance for both surface and subsurface models in water resource assessment. However, quantifying its spatiotemporal distribution at a regional scale poses a significant challenge. Empirical and numerical modeling are the most commonly used methods at the watershed scales. However, integrated models inherently contain a vast number of unknowns and uncertainties, which can limit their accuracy and reliability. In this work, we have proposed integrated SWAT-MODFLOW and Transient Water Table Fluctuation Method (TWTFM) to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater recharge in Anyang watershed, South Korea. Since TWTFM also uses SWAT model percolation output data, calibration was performed for individual models and a coupled model. The coupled model was calibrated using daily streamflow and hydraulic head. The SWAT-MODFLOW model performed well during the simulation of streamflow compared to the SWAT model. The study output showed that the study watershed had significant groundwater recharge variations during the simulated period. A significant amount of recharge happens in the wet season. It contributes a significant amount of the average annual precipitation of the region. The direct flow components (surface and lateral) showed significant contributions when the water balance components were evaluated in the region. TWTFM showed a glimpse to estimate recharge, which requires representative monitoring wells in the study region. Comprehensively, the SWAT-MODFLOW model estimated groundwater recharge with reasonable accuracy in the region. Full article

The availability of sufficient water resources is critical for sustainable social and economic development globally. However, recurrent drought has been a precursor to inadequate water supply in the case of Borkena Catchment, Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support the conjunctive use and management of surface water and groundwater in Borkena Catchment, an integrated model was developed using the SWAT–MODFLOW model. The model was designed to operate on a monthly time scale. The change in the water balance obtained from the SWAT–MODFLOW model provides a quantitative means to assess the effect of the climate variability and changes, as well as the impact of human activities, on water resources. To advance the understanding at the regional and local scales, surface water–groundwater interactions in the Borkena Catchment geochemical information and piezometer maps were integrated. The results show that the groundwater recharge in the study area is approximately 122 mm/a. The surface water–groundwater interaction results show that the areas around Harbu and Dessie are characterized as losing rivers, while the areas around Kemisse-Chefa and the highlands of Kutaber, where the Borkena River originates, are characterized as gaining rivers. A geochemical analysis indicated that there is an inter-basin groundwater transfer from the Abbay to the Awash basin. The integrated model generated key temporal and spatial information that is useful for the sustainable conjunctive management of surface and groundwater in Borkena Catchment for climate resilience in the face of climate variability and increasing demand. Full article

Urban aquifers are experiencing increasing pressures from climate change, land-use change, and abstraction, consequently, altering groundwater levels and threatening sustainable water availability, consumption, and utilization. Sustainability in such areas requires the adaptation of groundwater resources to these stressors. Consequently, this research made projections about future climate, land use, and abstraction, examines how these drives will affect groundwater levels, and then proposes adaptation strategies to reduce the impact on Lahore’s groundwater resources. The objectives are achieved using an integrated modeling framework involving applications of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models. The results indicated a projected rise in T_min by ~2.03 °C and T_max by ~1.13 °C by 2100 under medium (RCP 4.5) and high-end (RCP 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Future precipitation changes for mid, near and far periods are projected to be −1.0%, 25%, and 24.5% under RCP4.5, and −17.5%, 27.5%, and 29.0% under RCP8.5, respectively. The built-up area in the Lahore division will dominate agricultural land in the future with an expansion from 965 m² to 3716 km² by the year 2100 under R1S1 (R2S2) land-use change scenarios (significant at p = 5%). The future population of the Lahore division will increase from 6.4 M to 24.6 M (28.7 M) by the year 2100 under SSP1 (SSP3) scenarios (significant at p = 5%). Groundwater level in bult-up areas will be projected to decline from 185 m to 125 m by 2100 due to increasing groundwater abstraction and expansion in the impermeable surface under all scenarios. In contrast, agricultural areas show a fluctuating trend with a slight increase in groundwater level due to decreasing abstraction and multiple recharge sources under combined scenarios. The results of this study can be a way forward for groundwater experts and related institutions to understand the potential situation of groundwater resources in the Lahore division and implement adaptation strategies to counteract diminishing groundwater resources. Full article