Search Results (17)

Material degradation is a critical factor in assessing the vulnerability of industrial infrastructure, particularly in the presence of extreme natural events. This study shows that the relation between material degradation and NaTech risk is both bidirectional and systemic, with important implications for industrial safety. Through the analysis of an emblematic case study, it was demonstrated that latent defects, originating during the construction phase, can remain silent for decades and manifest critically under the action of extreme natural events. The objective is to provide a useful methodological tool for the early diagnosis of systemic risk conditions and for planning preventive and resilient strategies. The proposed approach overcomes the traditional separation between degradation analysis and environmental risk assessment, promoting a holistic and adaptive view of vulnerability. Specifically, integrating the concept of structural obsolescence into NaTech risk models allows for a more realistic representation of systemic exposure and supports the planning of more effective prevention strategies. The case study analysis highlights the interaction between latent structural defects and environmental stresses, offering insights for interpreting vulnerability in complex and multifactorial scenarios. The outcome provides perspectives for the integration of quantitative indicators into NaTech risk models. Full article

Urban lifeline Natech events are coupled systems composed of multiple risks and entities with complex dynamic transmission chains. Predicting risk evolution probabilities is the core task for achieving the safety management of urban lifeline Natech events. First, the risk evolution mechanism is analyzed, where urban lifeline Natech events exhibit spatial evolution characteristics, which involves dissecting the parallel and synergistic effects of risk evolution in spatial dimensions. Next, based on fitting marginal probability distribution functions for natural hazard and urban lifeline risk evolution, a Multi-dimensional Copula (MdC) function for the joint probability distribution of urban lifeline Natech event risk evolution is constructed. Building upon the MdC function, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model for predicting risk evolution probabilities of urban lifeline Natech events is developed using the Metropolis–Hastings (M-H) algorithm and Gibbs sampling. Finally, taking the 2021 Zhengzhou ‘7·20’ catastrophic rainstorm as a case study, joint probability distribution functions for risk evolution under Rainfall-Wind speed scenarios are fitted for traffic, electric, communication, water supply, and drainage systems (including different risk transmission chains). Numerical simulations of joint probability distributions for risk evolution are conducted, and visualizations of joint probability predictions for risk evolution are generated. Full article

Natech events, involving multi-hazard coupling and cascading effects, pose serious threats to coal mine safety. This paper addresses flood-induced Natech scenarios in coal mining and introduces a two-stage cascading analysis framework based on hazard systems theory. A tri-layered network—comprising natural hazards, exposed elements, and secondary hazards—models hazard propagation. In Stage 1, an improved adjacency information entropy algorithm with multi-hazard coupling coefficients identifies critical exposed elements. In Stage 2, Dijkstra’s algorithm extracts key risk transmission paths. A dual-dimensional classification method, based on entropy and transmission risk, is then applied to prioritize emergency responses. This method integrates the criticality of exposed elements with the risk levels associated with secondary disaster propagation paths. Case studies validate the framework, revealing: (1) Hierarchical heterogeneity in the network, with surface facilities and surrounding hydrological systems as central hubs; shaft and tunnel systems and surrounding geological systems are significantly affected by propagation from these core nodes, exhibiting marked instability. (2) Strong risk polarization in secondary hazard propagation, with core-node-originated paths being more efficient and urgent. (3) The entropy-risk classification enables targeted hazard control, improving efficiency. The study proposes chain-breaking strategies for precise, hierarchical, and timely emergency management, enhancing coal mine resilience to flood-induced Natech events. Full article

The synergistic interaction between emergency management departments and enterprises constitutes a fundamental mechanism for mitigating the risks of technological accidents caused by natural disasters (Natech). The efficacy of this collaborative approach is impacted by comprehensive risk analyses and the game between government and enterprise. Predicated on these premises, the evolutionary game analysis of government–enterprise collaboration in coping with Natech risk was carried out. Firstly, an evolutionary game model of government–enterprise collaboration in coping with Natech risk was constructed. Secondly, the evolutionary stability strategy (ESS) was developed. Finally, these strategies were substantiated through numerical simulations. The findings revealed that at lower levels of Natech risk, enterprises will choose low investment in coping capacity building, and emergency management departments will choose delayed disposal. Under moderate Natech risk, enterprises will increase their investments if emergency management departments persist with delayed strategies, and emergency management departments will react proactively if enterprises persist with low investment. Under a high Natech risk, a pattern of strategic misalignment emerges between the two entities. This study contributes a theoretical basis for the optimization of government–enterprise collaboration in coping with Natech risks. Full article

Natech accidents have an increasing relevance due to the growing number of such events and to their severe consequences. Climate change and global warming are intensifying the occurrence and the magnitude of climate-related natural events, further increasing the risk of cascading sequences triggered by natural disasters impacting industrial installations. The present study focuses on Natech triggered by heat waves. The features of this specific category of Natech events were investigated by past accident analysis, collecting an extended dataset of past events. The dataset analysis allowed the identification of the key factors that characterize these accident scenarios, such as the direct causes, the technological scenario that occurred, the substance categories, and the equipment items more frequently involved. The main direct cause of accidents resulted in an internal pressure increase, exceeding equipment design limits. Fire scenarios represent the most important category of technological scenarios that occurred. Besides equipment items handling liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, waste storage and processing systems also resulted frequently in accidents, due to the self-decomposition and self-ignition phenomena. The analysis of past accidents also allowed identifying some lessons learned, useful to identify specific actions aimed at preventing and/or mitigating the possible occurrence of these accident scenarios. Full article

Along with global climate change and industrialization, domino effects caused by Natech events occurred frequently in chemical industrial parks over the past decades. Previous research has not yet proposed a reliable method to obtain all possible paths of Natech domino effects, and moreover, a risk assessment and mitigation system has not been established. The present work aims to develop a quantitative framework for propagation paths of Natech domino effects, which can effectively safeguard the sustainable development of chemical industrial parks. The presentation of this work is divided into two parts: Part I (current paper) proposes a path probability calculation method that can simultaneously consider multiple primary accident scenarios and multi-level domino effects triggered by natural disasters. The proposed method transforms the propagation paths of domino effects into the paths of directed graph by constructing the equipment failure state transition matrix and the equipment failure state transition probability matrix. The depth-first traversal algorithm is used to obtain all possible propagation paths and their propagation probabilities, providing data support for the quantitative risk assessment and prevention and control measures presented in the accompanying paper (Part II). The case study shows that the probability of equipment failure caused by multi-level domino effects triggered by Natech accidents is higher than that of conventional accidents. However, the present work only considers the spatial propagation of domino effects, while their spatio-temporal propagation remains as a further direction for this area of inquiry. Full article

This is the second part of the quantitative framework for the propagation paths of Natech domino effects in chemical industrial parks, which focuses on risk assessment and a mitigation system based on the propagation path probabilities obtained from Part I. In this paper, the risk assessment model for the propagation paths of the domino effects induced by natural disasters are developed, and the risk level is quantitatively analyzed using individual risk and social risk indexes and compared with the risk acceptance standard to determine whether the risk in the plant area is at the risk acceptance level. Furthermore, the chain-cutting disaster mitigation model for domino effects induced by Natech events and the full-life-cycle mitigation system are proposed, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures is also evaluated. The case analysis results show that Natech events and multi-level domino effects can increase the risk to an unacceptable level, and taking corresponding mitigation measures could reduce the risk to an acceptable level. Full article

The increasing trend towards the global use of Information Technology (IT) is currently determining the need for more and better infrastructures (both physical and digital) for processing, storing and transferring large amounts of data. As Critical Infrastructure (CI) that is potentially exposed and vulnerable to the impact of different types of phenomena (natural, technological, na-tech, etc.), data centers have to guarantee higher levels of security (physical, logical and operational), reliability and efficiency in the provision of services. Starting from a discussion of the main evidence related to this topic, considering both the most recent cases of failure and serious damage to data centers and the evolution of international and European regulation and standards, the authors propose an analytical methodology to assess the territorial risk factors for data centers by a multirisk, multi-dimensional and systemic approach. This proposal leads not only to a more explicit definition of exposure and vulnerable components, but also to the recognition of resources that—in the case of accidental events involving (directly or indirectly) data center infrastructures—may be implemented at different territorial levels as “protection” factors to ensure business continuity by considering the entire resilience cycle, from the prevention phase to the response and recovery phases. Full article

With the increase in industrial accidents induced by natural disasters, the study of earthquake risk assessment has been widely considered by scholars. However, the cascade evolution of Natech (natural–technological) disasters has not been thoroughly studied, especially in chemical parks with complex technological processes. From the perspective of scenario deduction, combined with cross-impact analysis and a damping interpretation structural model, this paper analyzes the evolution process of cascade disaster in a chemical industrial park after the Wenchuan earthquake. At the same time, a visual network risk assessment model is constructed to identify the impact of earthquake cascade disasters on the park. The simulation results show that the scenario-driven risk assessment method proposed in this paper can directly reflect the coupling relationship and propagation path among the derived events and realize dynamic, intuitive and structured disaster expression to deal with the earthquake Natech (natural–technological) disaster scenario effectively and quickly. Full article

Accidents in port areas in the Gulf of Mexico have had great economic costs, since this is an area exposed to extreme phenomena. Tropical cyclones or cold fronts, also known as Tehuantepecers, result in intense winds and waves that impact the coastal infrastructure. The chemical risk associated with extreme winds and waves for the fuel storage tanks of the facility of the Port of Veracruz, the main Mexican port in the Gulf of Mexico, was evaluated with a historical analysis of accidents as a tool to identify significant factors in disasters and establish risk acceptance criteria. It was found that the critical hazard threshold for Veracruz corresponds to winds stronger than 160 km/h (44 m/s) that may result in coastal waves of more than 5 m high. The vulnerability to these phenomena was calculated with the vulnerability index (VI), considering the structural, functional, and chemical factors in the infrastructure, including exposure levels. By means of a risk matrix, it was determined that gasoline storage tanks have a moderate chemical risk, since exposure to the extreme wind wave hazard is low, and diesel tanks are at low risk. These assessments are important elements to consider in the expansion plans for the Port of Veracruz. Full article

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the design, development and commercialization of nuclear power Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Actual SMR designs cover the full spectrum of nuclear reactor technologies, including water-, gas-, liquid-metal-, and molten-salt-cooled. Despite physical and technological differences, SMRs share some relevant design features, such as small size, modularity, inherent and passive safety systems. These features are expected to enhance availability, recoverability, promptness and robustness, thereby contributing to the resilience of power supply. Thanks to the peculiar design features of SMRs, they are likely to satisfy a number of Functional Requirements (FRs) for this objective, namely: (i) low vulnerability to external hazards; (ii) natural circulation of primary coolant; (iii) prompt, unlimited and independent core cooling under shutdown conditions; (iv) shutdown avoidance in response to variations of the offsite power supply quality and electrical load; (v) island mode operation; (vi) robust load-following; (vii) independent, self-cranking start. These make advanced Nuclear Power Plants (aNPPs) comprised of SMRs perfect candidates to withstand a broader range of natural disruptions and to recover faster from them, compared to conventional Nuclear Power Plants (cNPPs), thus rendering them a major potential asset for guaranteeing resilience and security of power supply. The review focuses on Natural Technological (NaTech) events that impact a typical Integrated Energy System (IESs) within which SMRs are embedded: IESs are, indeed, being developed to integrate different power generation plants with gas facilities, through gas and electricity infrastructures, because they are expected to bring increased security and resilience of power supply, as shown in the qualitative case study presented. Full article

In the last decades, the frequency and severity of Natural-Technological events (i.e., industrial accidents triggered by natural phenomena or Na-Techs) increased. These could be more severe than simple technological accidents because the natural phenomenon could cause the prevention/mitigation/emergency systems fail. The dynamic assessment of the risk associated with these events is essential for a more effective prevention and mitigation of the consequences and emergency preparation. The main goal of this study is the development of a fast and dynamic tool for the risk manager. An approach supporting the management of the consequence is presented. It is based on the definition of a risk-related index, presented in the form of a discrete variable that combines frequency and magnitude of the events and other factors contributing to the worsening of Na-Tech. A properly designed Geographical Information System (GIS) allows the collection and processing of territorial information with the aim to create new data contributing to the quantification of the Na-Tech risk index. A Bayesian network has been built which efficiently lends in including within the model multiple elements with a direct or indirect impact on the distribution of risk levels. By means of this approach, a dynamic updating of the risk index is made. The proposed approach has been applied to an Italian case-study. Full article

(1) Background: We aim to examine whether people activate initial protection behavior, adopt evacuation behavior, worry about the possibility of a tsunami, and consider natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) situations in a sudden-onset earthquake. The literature suggests that risk perception is a significant predictor of people’s response to potential Natech threats. We aim to empirically verify the variables relating to people’s responses. (2) Methods: We conducted a household survey following a January 2018 earthquake in Indonesia. (3) Results: Immediately after the earthquake, almost 30% of the respondents assembled at the evacuation point. However, sequential steps of people’s response were not observed: evacuation immediately after the earthquake was due to worry about the possibility of a tsunami, but this worry was not related to Natech damage estimation. The relevant factors for evacuation behavior were information access, worry about the possibility of a tsunami, and knowledge of groups and programs related to disaster risk reduction (DRR). The survey location (two villages), perceived earthquake risk, and DRR activity participation are less relevant to the behavior of assembling at the evacuation point. (4) Conclusions: Contrary to the existing literature, our results do not support that higher risk perception is associated with evacuation behavior, or that immediate evacuation is related to foreseeing cascading sequential consequences. Full article

Untreated hexamethylenetetramine (HMT) was discharged into the Tone River in the central area of Japan, and the risk management plan in the watershed area has been strengthened because HMT is the precursor of formaldehyde (FA) regulated by Japanese water supply law. The release of HMT could occur not only in steady but also in unsteady environmental conditions. In this context, no quantitative environmental risk assessments have dealt with the combined events of FA precursor outflow and natural disasters, such as a massive tsunami attack. In this study, we estimated the time course changes of HMT concentrations at the near water treatment plant (WTP) intakes due to tsunami run-up in the river after HMT discharge from facilities along the river during a massive tsunami attack, then potential ecological and health impacts were estimated. This method has a strong analytical ability to reveal the relationship between wave source and inland water run-up in consideration of 3D density flow. For ecological risk, the half maximal effective concentration (EC₅₀) was employed. We found that HMT concentration would not reach a level of concern even after the accident. For potential health risk in terms of the possible maximum inlet concentration of HMT at the WTP, the FA formation amount was 5.3 × 10⁻² mg/L, which was below the water quality standard. Full article

The occurrence of Natech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) accidents has generated a reflection about the need to manage adequately the risk to people, to the environment, and to the infrastructures subjected to natural events. For this reason, academia and industry have increased research in the process safety area in the last decade, strengthening quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methodologies for Natech events. However, these methodologies have some gaps that must be closed for a better decision-making process. In this communication a comparative analysis of the existing Natech QRA approaches is done, to highlight features and differences and to identify main gaps that should be addressed in future research. It can be mentioned that all the analyzed methodologies, which have been applied to floods, earthquakes, and lightning, are based on an initial one developed in 2007. The critical gap is that in all these methodologies, the final step is the risk calculation based on fatalities, and they do not consider the area-wide as an essential element in the risk analysis process. Full article