Search Results (21)

Land use/landcover (LULC) changes and climate variability impact soil erosion; however, their combined long-term effects are poorly studied. Using remote sensing data, this study investigates changes in LULC and rainfall from 1985 to 2022 and their implications for soil erosion in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. The Global Land Cover Fine Classification System (GLC_FCS30D) data were used to analyze LULC changes; Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS-v2) were used to assess rainfall trends; and the RUSLE was used to estimate potential soil erosion. The GLC_FCS30D proved to have an overall accuracy of 77.3% for 2005, 80.2% for 2014, and 80.3% for 2022. The cropland area increased slightly, from 32.9% to 33.3%, while tree cover initially decreased from 31.2% to 27.8% before recovering to 29.9%. Overall, annual rainfall increased by 2.92 mm yr⁻¹, though it exhibited strong spatial variability, and rainfall erosivity rose by 1.25 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Despite seemingly modest changes in landcover and rainfall, the combined effect on potential soil erosion was substantial. Potential soil loss in the Lake Tana Basin showed significant spatial and temporal variation, with a slight increase of 0.9% from 1985 to 1995, followed by a slight decrease of 0.12% from 1995 to 2005, and a more substantial decrease of 2.3% from 2005 to 2015 before a notable increase of 8.2% occurred from 2015 to 2022. By elucidating the intricate interactions between landcover changes and rainfall variability, this study enhances our understanding of landscape dynamics in the Lake Tana Basin. The findings highlight the importance of considering the interaction between rainfall and landcover changes in climate change studies, as well as when targeting soil conservation efforts and promoting sustainable land management and ecosystem resilience in the tropics. Full article

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the groundwater potential of hard rock aquifers in five diverse African case study areas: Lake Tana Basin and Beles Basin in northwestern Ethiopia and Mount Meru in northern Tanzania (comprising volcanic aquifers); the Mekelle area in northern Ethiopia and Jifarah Plain in Libya (consisting of sedimentary aquifers). The evaluation of recharge, transmissivity, and water quality formed the basis of qualitative and quantitative assessment. Multiple methods, including water table fluctuation (WTF), chloride mass balance (CMB), physical hydrological modeling (WetSpass), baseflow separation (BFS), and remote sensing techniques like GRACE satellite data, were employed to estimate groundwater recharge across diverse hydrogeological settings. Topographic contrast, fractured orientation, lineament density, hydro-stratigraphic connections, hydraulic gradient, and distribution of high-flux springs were used to assess IGF from Lake Tana to Beles Basin. The monitoring, sampling, and pumping test sites took into account the high hydromorphological and geological variabilities. Recharge rates varied significantly, with mean values of 315 mm/year in Lake Tana Basin, 193 mm/year in Mount Meru, and as low as 4.3 mm/year in Jifarah Plain. Transmissivity ranged from 0.4 to 6904 m²/day in Lake Tana Basin, up to 790 m²/day in Mount Meru’s fractured lava aquifers, and reached 859 m²/day in the sedimentary aquifers of the Mekelle area. Water quality issues included high TDS levels (up to 3287 mg/L in Mekelle and 11,141 mg/L in Jifarah), elevated fluoride concentrations (>1.5 mg/L) in 90% of Mount Meru samples, and nitrate pollution in shallow aquifers linked to agricultural practice. This study also highlights the phenomenon of inter-basin deep groundwater flow, emphasizing its role in groundwater potential assessment and challenging conventional water balance assumptions. The findings reveal that hard rock aquifers, particularly weathered/fractured basalt aquifers in volcanic regions, exhibit high potential, while pyroclastic aquifers generally demonstrate lower potential. Concerns regarding high fluoride levels are identified in Mount Meru aquifers. Among sedimentary aquifers in the Mekelle area and Jifarah Plain, limestone intercalated with marl or dolomite rock emerges as having high potential. However, high TDS and high sulfate concentrations are quality issues in some of the areas, quite above the WHO’s and each country’s drinking water standards. The inter-basin groundwater flow, investigated in this study of Beles Basin, challenges the conventional water balance assumption that the inflow into a hydrological basin is equivalent to the outflow out of the basin, by emphasizing the importance of considering groundwater influx from neighboring basins. These insights contribute novel perspectives to groundwater balance and potential assessment studies, challenging assumptions about groundwater divides. Full article

The purpose of this study was to enhance the understanding and sustainable groundwater management of volcanic aquifer systems by estimating key hydrogeological parameters. The transmissivity of a volcanic aquifer system was estimated using analytical solutions based on 68 constant rate and recovery data sets collected from various sources. A combination of hydro-lithostratigraphy and diagnostic plots was employed to identify the aquifer types and flow conditions, which facilitated model selection. Transmissivity of the confined aquifer was modeled using both Theis and Cooper–Jacob methods, with the Theis residual drawdown solution utilized for estimation. For the unconfined aquifer, the Neuman method was used, and the Hantush/Jacob method was employed for leaky aquifers. The results showed that the transmissivity of the Tertiary basalt varied from 0.38 m²/d to 860 m²/d, while the Quaternary aquifer system ranged from 2.33 m²/d to 1.8 × 10⁴ m²/d, indicating an increase in transmissivity with younger volcanic flows. Specific capacity (SC) was estimated for 74 wells and the values ranged from 0.62 to 5860 m²/d. This wide variation of specific capacity and transmissivity showed significant heterogeneity within the volcanic aquifers. This study introduces the innovative application of derivative diagnostic plots in groundwater research, offering an efficient approach for analyzing and interpreting pumping test data to characterize aquifer systems in various hydrogeologic units. This study focuses on aquifer characterization in hard rock formation, demonstrating methods that can be applied to similar geological environments globally. For the Blue Nile basin in general and for the Lake Tana basin in particular, the study result of aquifer characterization will contribute to exploration, development, and improved groundwater management in the region. Full article

Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to −4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or −22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100. Full article

Climate change and its impact on surface runoff in the upper Blue Nile basin and sub-basins have been widely studied in future climate projections. However, the impact on extreme flow events of rivers is barely investigated discretely. In this paper, the change in temperature and rainfall under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5) and its impact on the high flow and low flow simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2012) in major watersheds of the Lake Tana Basin has been evaluated by comparing the baseline period (1971–2000) with the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070), and 2080s (2071–2100). The high flows of watersheds were selected by the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) model, whereas the low-flow watersheds were selected by the 7-day sustained mean annual minimum flow method. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 °C to 5.17 °C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. The increment in minimum temperature is also more prominent in the 2080s and it is expected to rise by 4.75 °C. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. The highest increments are expected by 22.37%, 25.58%, and 29.75% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, whereas the projected highest decrease in rainfall dictates the decrease of 6.42%, 7.11%, and 9.26% in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Due to changes in temperature and rainfall, the low flow is likely to decrease by 8.39%, 8.33%, 6.21%, and 5.02% in Ribb, Gumara, Megech, and Gilgel Abay watersheds, respectively, whereas the high flow of Gilgel Abay, Megech, Gumara, and Ribb watersheds are expected to increase by 13.94%, 12.16%, 10.90%, and 10.24%, respectively, every 30 years. Full article

Knowledge of hydrologic connectivity is important to grasp the hydrological response at a basin scale, particularly as changes in connectivity can have a negative effect on the environment. In the context of a changing climate, being able to predict how changes in connectivity will affect runoff and sediment transport is particularly relevant for land-use planning. Many studies on hydrology, geomorphology and climatology have been conducted in the Lake Tana Basin in Ethiopia, which is undergoing rapid development and significant environmental changes. This systematic literature review aims at assessing to what extent the hydrologic connectivity has been taken into account in such research, and to identify research gaps relevant to land and water management. On the Web of Science and Scopus databases, 135 scientific articles covering those topics were identified. Aspects of hydrologic connectivity were mostly implicitly taken into account based on process-based, statistical and descriptive models. Amongst the drivers of changing connectivity, the climate was covered by a large majority of publications (64%). Components of structural hydrologic connectivity were accounted for by considering geomorphology (54%) and soils (47%), and to a lesser extent, hydrography (16%) and geology (12%). Components of functional connectivity were covered by looking at surface water fluxes (61%), sediment fluxes (18%) and subsurface water fluxes (13%). While numerous studies of the Lake Tana Basin accounted for the hydrologic connectivity implicitly, these related predominantly to functional components. The structural components are given less attention, while in the context of a changing climate, better insights into their influence on the hydrologic seem most relevant. Better knowledge of the static aspect of connectivity is particularly important for targeting appropriate soil and water conservation strategies. Being able to explicitly assess the ‘structural connectivity’ is therefore of direct relevance for land management and land-use policy. Full article

Agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan African countries has significantly increased pesticide applications. Information on pesticide residues and their transport in groundwater and streams is needed to properly manage and reduce any harm to the ecosystem and environment. This information is lacking in the volcanic soils of Ethiopian highlands. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess pesticide concentrations in ground and surface water and their risk to humans and aquatic life. The 9 km² rural watershed Robit Bata in the Lake Tana Basin was selected. Crops were grown under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Pesticide use was assessed, and groundwater samples were collected from eight wells and surface water samples at the outlet twice in the rain phase and once in the dry phase. Samples were analyzed for chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, (α and β) endosulfan, profenofos, ${\mathrm{NO}}_3^{-}$, and pH. Chlorpyrifos and endosulfan, which are strongly adsorbed and slowly degrading pesticides, were found in nearly all surface and groundwater samples, with maximum concentrations in surface water of 8 µg L⁻¹ for chlorpyrifos and 3 µg L⁻¹ endosulfan. Maximum groundwater concentrations were only slightly lower. The weakly adsorbed and fast degrading pesticides, dimethoate, and profenofos were detected only in the rain phase after spraying in the groundwater, indicating preferential transport to groundwater at depths of up to 9 m. The average concentration was 0.38 μg L⁻¹ for dimethoate in surface waters and 1.24 μg L⁻¹ in groundwater. Profenofos was not detected in surface water. In the groundwater, the average concentration was 0.05 μg L⁻¹. Surface water concentrations of chlorpyrifos and endosulfan were highly toxic to fish. The World Health Organization banned these pesticides worldwide. It should be phased out for use in Ethiopia to safeguard the ecological health of Lake Tana, which is rich in biodiversity and endemic fish species. Full article

Pesticides are widely used for safeguarding agricultural yields and controlling malaria vectors, yet are simultaneously unintentionally introduced in aquatic environments. To assess the severity of this pressure in the Lake Tana Basin (Ethiopia), we evaluated the occurrence of 17 pesticide residues in the lake, tributary rivers, and associated wetlands during the wet and dry season, followed by a questionnaire. These questionnaires indicated that 35 different compounds were available in the districts surrounding the lake, including pesticides that are banned in Europe, i.e., endosulfan, dicofol, and malathion. Nevertheless, only 7 pesticide residues were detected in the assessed aquatic habitats. Of these, DDE and bifenthrin occurred most often (97.7% and 62.3%, respectively), while alachlor displayed the highest mean concentration (594 ± 468 ng/L). No significant differences were observed in residue concentrations between seasons nor between habitats. Based on an ecotoxicological risk assessment, the observed concentrations of DDE and cypermethrin pose a high risk to aquatic life, while alachlor and DDT-op residues were below the threshold values. Furthermore, a human risk assessment indicated a low risk for the population that directly consumes water from the Tana basin, while acknowledging the potential of indirect exposure through the consumption of fish and locally grown crops. Full article

Despite the fact that rice was only recently brought to Ethiopia, the Ethiopian government has dubbed it the “millennium crop” because of its importance as a food security crop, as well as a source of revenue and job possibilities. Rice production is being practiced on wetland areas and floodplains; however, no attention has been given to the sustainability of these wetlands, or to the integration of different previous indigenous activities, such as livestock rearing and farming of different crops in the area. This study aims to investigate the impact of rice expansion on traditional wetland management in the Fogera floodplain wetlands of the Lake Tana basin. Data were generated via interviews and the application of GIS and remote sensing. The survey questionnaire was administered to 385 rice-producing farmers. The respondents (87%) confirmed that increases in the price of rice encouraged them to shift from the cultivation of conventional crops to rice farming. Subsequently, between the years 1973 and 2014, wetland areas have been reduced from 3114 ha to 1060 ha, accompanied by a high rate of expansion in rice production in the area. Major activities being pursued in the wetlands of the study area do not consider environmental impacts. As a result, the diverse ecosystem services available in the past have been compromised through time. Sense of ownership of wetland resources and their benefit shall be communicated to reduce abusive utilization. Therefore, the policies, strategies, and development activities implementation need to consider environmental issues in rice production enhancement endeavors. Full article

A significant constraint in water resource development in developing countries is the lack of accurate river discharge data. Stage–discharge measurements are infrequent, and rating curves are not updated after major storms. Therefore, the objective is to develop accurate stage–discharge rating curves with limited measurements. The Lake Tana basin in the upper reaches of the Blue Nile in the Ethiopian Highlands is typical for the lack of reliable streamflow data in Africa. On average, one stage–discharge measurement per year is available for the 21 gaging stations over 60 years or less. To obtain accurate and unique stage–discharge curves, the discharge was expressed as a function of the water level and a time-dependent offset from zero. The offset was expressed as polynomial functions of time (up to order 4). The rating curve constants and the coefficients for the polynomial were found by minimizing the errors between observed and predicted fluxes for the available stage–discharge data. It resulted in unique rating curves with R² > 0.85 for the four main rivers. One of the river bottoms of the alluvial channels increased in height by up to 3 m in 60 years. In the upland channels, most offsets changed by less than 50 cm. The unique rating curves that account for temporal riverbed changes can aid civil engineers in the design of reservoirs, water managers in improving reservoir management, programmers in calibration and validation of hydrology models and scientists in ecological research. Full article

There is an increasing need globally to establish relationships among flow, ecology, and livelihoods to make informed decisions about environmental flows. This paper aimed to establish the ecological foundation for a holistic environmental flow assessment method in the Gumara River that flows into Lake Tana in Ethiopia and the Blue Nile River. First, the ecological conditions (fish, macro-invertebrate, riparian vegetation, and physicochemical) of the river system were characterized, followed by determining the hydrological condition and finally linking the ecological and hydrological components. The ecological data were collected at 30 sites along the Gumara River on March 2016 and 2020. River hydrology was estimated using the SWAT model and showed that the low flow decreased over time. Both physico-chemical and macroinvertebrate scores showed that water quality was moderate in most locations. The highest fish diversity index was in the lower reach at Wanzaye. Macroinvertebrate diversity was observed to decrease downstream. Both the fish and macroinvertebrate diversity indices were less than the expected maximum, being 3.29 and 4.5, respectively. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for 30 m and 60 m buffer distances from the river decreased during the dry season (March–May). Hence, flow conditions, water quality, and land-use change substantially influenced the abundance and diversity of fish, vegetation, and macroinvertebrate species. The pressure on the ecology is expected to increase because the construction of the proposed dam is expected to alter the flow regime. Thus, as demand for human water consumption grows, measures are needed, including quantification of environmental flow requirements and regulating river water uses to conserve the ecological status of the Gumara River and Lake Tana sub-basin. Full article

The Lake Tana Basin, comprising the largest natural lake in Ethiopia, is the source and the uppermost part of the Upper Blue Nile Basin. In this review paper, research papers, mainly on the rainfall-runoff modeling and lake water balance, and on the hydrogeology, have been reviewed. The earlier water balance estimation attempts used simple conceptual and statistical approaches and calculate on a monthly timescale. More recent research has been using advanced semi-physically or physically based distributed hydrological models. Accordingly, mean annual precipitation over the lake was estimated in the range 36.1–53.1%; lake evaporation at 45.3–57.5%; river inflow (all gauged and estimated ungauged) at 43.6–63.9%; and river (lake) water outflow at 0–9.2%. With the few isotope studies, groundwater inflow and outflow are found insignificant. Different studies had estimated groundwater recharge, ranging from 57 mm to 850 mm. The basin has a heterogenous aquifer system consisting of different volcanic rocks and alluvio-lacustrine sediments. Generally, groundwater with low TDS, Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type, isotopically relatively enriched, and high TDS, Na–HCO₃ type, isotopically relatively depleted, water types have been identified. In this paper, major research gaps such as aquifer hydraulic characterization, surface-groundwater interaction, groundwater flow and groundwater balance have been identified. Hence, future research shall focus on the groundwater resources, so that existing surface water studies are updated and future water usage options are explored. Full article

Lakes hold most of the freshwater resources in the world. Safeguarding these in a changing environment is a major challenge. The 3000 km² Lake Tana in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is one of these lakes. It is situated in a zone destined for rapid development including hydropower and irrigation. Future lake management requires detailed knowledge of the water balance of Lake Tana. Since previous water balances varied greatly this paper takes a fresh look by calculating the inflow and losses of the lake. To improve the accuracy of the amount of precipitation falling on the lake, two new rainfall stations were installed in 2013. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation Version two (CHIRPS-v2) dataset was used to extend the data. After reviewing all the previous studies and together with our measurements, it was found that the period of 1990–1995 likely had the most accurate gauged discharge data. During some months in this period, the lake water balance was negative. Since the river inflow to the lake cannot be negative, water was either lost from the lake via the subsurface through faults, or the outflow measurements were systematically underestimated. Based on the evaporation rate of 1650 mm, we found that unaccounted loss was 0.6 km³ a⁻¹, equivalent to 20 cm of water over the lake area each year. This implies the need for reliable rainfall data and improved river discharge measurements over a greater portion of the basin both entering and exiting the lake. Also, integrated hydrological and geologic investigations are needed for a better understanding of the unaccounted water losses and quantifying the amount of subsurface flow leaving the lake. Full article

Water hyacinth originated from the Amazon Basin and has expanded to other parts of the world since the 1800s. In Ethiopia, the weed is affecting the socio-economic activities of the people whose livelihood is directly or indirectly dependent on Lake Tana. Still, the area covered by water hyacinth and the impact of water level fluctuation on the expansion of water hyacinth has not been known clearly. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of water hyacinth and relation with lake-level fluctuation. The area covered by water hyacinth was determined using monthly Sentinel-2 images, which were collected from November 2015 to December 2019. The impact of water level fluctuation on the expansion of water hyacinth was evaluated using hourly water level data converted to a monthly average to correlate with the area covered by the water hyacinth. In addition, MOD13Q1.006 data was used to evaluate the trend of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and its linkage with the weed. The maximum areas covered by water hyacinth were 278.3, 613.6, 1108.7, 2036.5, and 2504.5 ha in Feb 2015, October 2016, September 2017, December 2018, and in December 2019, respectively. Its areal coverage was declining from the northern corridors and increasing in eastern shores of the lake. The lake-level fluctuation was observed in the range of 1.5 to 3.98 m in this study. The annual mean maximum spatial values of the NDVI were in the range of 0.27 and 0.47. The area covered by water hyacinth was increasing significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the seasonal lake-level fluctuation. High water level enabled the expansion of the weed by extending its suitable habitat of shallow water to the flood plain. Based on the results of this study, lake-level fluctuations can have an adverse impact on the expansion of the weed. Full article

Understanding the complex relationships between rainfall and runoff processes is necessary for the proper estimation of the quantity of runoff generated in a watershed. The surface runoff was simulated using the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) for the Gilgel Abay Catchment (1609 km²), Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The catchment was delineated and its properties were extracted from a 30 m × 30 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Lake Tana Basin. The meteorological model was developed within HEC-HMS from rainfall data and the control specifications defined the period and time step of the simulation run. To account for the loss, runoff estimation, and flow routing, Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN), Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph (SCS-UH) and Muskingum methods were used respectively. The rainfall-runoff simulation was conducted using six extreme daily time series events. Initial results showed that there is a clear difference between the observed and simulated peak flows and the total volume. Thereafter, a model calibration with an optimization method and sensitivity analysis was carried out. The result of the sensitivity analysis showed that the curve number is the sensitive parameter. In addition, the model validation results showed a reasonable difference in peak flow (Relative Error in peak, RE_P = 1.49%) and total volume (Relative Error in volume, RE_V = 2.38%). The comparison of the observed and simulated hydrographs and the model performance (NSE = 0.884) and their correlation (R² = 0.925) showed that the model is appropriate for hydrological simulations in the Gilgel Abay Catchment. Full article