Search Results (68)

Using Hurricane Harvey as a case study, this paper uses the hurricane track, wind velocity and pressure, bathymetry, Manning’s n coefficients, tidal forcing, and storm surge results generated by the ADCIRC+SWAN model as input to construct a uniform spatiotemporal deep learning model for storm surge forecasting. The model transforms inputs into embeddings and performs feature fusion and extraction. The regression layer of the model outputs the predicted values of storm surge water elevation, station water level time series, and hurricane tracks with attributes. To analyze the model’s adaptability and robustness as a surrogate model to ADCIRC, ablation experiments are conducted on up to 10 input variables to investigate the impact of various inputs on the results. Heat maps between 3, 6, 9, and 12 h horizon prediction and targets revealed excellent performance for the large scale of nodes and multiple inputs on the training set, validation set, and test set as the surrogate model. When the model is used to forecast water levels of 12 observation stations, the 9 h forecasting horizon is generally equal to or better than the ADCIRC simulation results. When the model is used to predict hurricane tracks and attributes, the 12 h forecast horizon is relatively close to the observed values, achieving satisfactory results. This model is developed and tested using Hurricane Harvey data and storm surge results as a case study. To develop a generalized prediction model would require a large amount of data and storm surge results from many hurricanes. Full article

This study examines the factors influencing home elevation decisions among participants in Houston’s Homeowner Assistance Program (HoAP) and the Texas General Land Office’s Homeowner Assistance Program (HAP) in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey and other flood events. Using a mixed-methods approach, we conducted surveys and semi-structured interviews with 50 homeowners, supplemented by secondary data analyses of program records and GIS-based flood risk assessments. Additionally, 25 undergraduate students engaged in a structured field trip, conducting site observations, interacting with residents, and discussing home elevation with experts. The findings reveal disparities in home elevation outcomes, with lower completion rates in socially vulnerable neighborhoods despite program eligibility. The study also identifies key factors influencing elevation decisions, including mobility concerns, financial constraints, neighborhood esthetics, and perceptions of long-term flood risk. Homeowners aged 60–79 were more likely to elevate their homes, while individuals with disabilities faced additional barriers. This research highlights the need for targeted policy interventions to improve program equity and ensure that vulnerable populations receive adequate support. Beyond its case study implications, this research contributes to broader discussions on disaster recovery, climate adaptation, and urban resilience. It also serves as a model for integrating student learning into community-based participatory research. While this study is limited in scope, it offers insights into the intersection of social vulnerability and housing adaptation, informing future policy efforts to enhance flood resilience in historically marginalized communities. Full article

This paper presents the Open-Source Intelligence Disaster Event Tracker (ODET), a modular platform that provides customizable endpoints and agents for each processing step. ODET enables the implementation of AI-enhanced algorithms to respond to various complex disaster scenarios. To evaluate ODET, we conducted two case studies using unmodified AI models to demonstrate its base performance and potential applications. Through our case studies on Hurricane Harvey and the 2023 Turkey earthquake, we show how complex tasks can be quickly broken down with ODET while achieving a score of up to 89% using the AlignScore metric. ODET enables compliance with Berkeley protocol requirements by ensuring data privacy and using privacy-preserving processing methods. Our results demonstrate that ODET is a robust platform for the long-term monitoring and analysis of dynamic environments and can improve the efficiency and accuracy of situational awareness reports in disaster management. Full article

Estuarine phytoplankton communities are acclimated to environmental parameters that change seasonally. With climate change, they are having to respond to extreme weather events that create dramatic alterations to ecosystem function(s) on the scale of days. Herein, we examined the short term (<1 month) shifts in phytoplankton communities associated with four pulse disturbances (Tax Day Flood in 2016, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Tropical Storm Imelda in 2019, and Winter Storm Uri in 2021) that occurred in Galveston Bay (TX, USA). Water samples collected daily were processed using an Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB), along with concurrent measurements of temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll-a. Stronger storm events with localized heavy precipitation and flooding had greater impacts on community composition, increasing diversity (Shannon–Weiner and Simpson Indices) while a cold wave event lowered it. Diatoms and dinoflagellates accounted for the largest fraction of the community, cyanobacteria and chlorophytes varied mostly with salinity, while euglenoids, cryptophytes, and raphidophytes, albeit at lower densities, fluctuated greatly. The unconstrained variance of the redundancy analysis models pointed to additional environmental processes than those measured being responsible for the changes observed. These findings provide insights into the impact of pulse disturbances of different magnitudes, durations, and timings on phytoplankton communities. Full article

The Internet’s development has prompted social media to become an essential channel for disseminating disaster-related information. Increasing the accuracy of emotional polarity recognition in tweets is conducive to the government or rescue organizations understanding the public’s demands and responding appropriately. Existing sentiment analysis models have some limitations of applicability. Therefore, this research proposes an IDBO-CNN-BiLSTM model combining the swarm intelligence optimization algorithm and deep learning methods. First, the Dung Beetle Optimization (DBO) algorithm is improved by adopting the Latin hypercube sampling, integrating the Osprey Optimization Algorithm (OOA), and introducing an adaptive Gaussian–Cauchy mixture mutation disturbance. The improved DBO (IDBO) algorithm is then utilized to optimize the Convolutional Neural Network—Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-BiLSTM) model’s hyperparameters. Finally, the IDBO-CNN-BiLSTM model is constructed to classify the emotional tendencies of tweets associated with the Hurricane Harvey event. The empirical analysis indicates that the proposed model achieves an accuracy of 0.8033, outperforming other single and hybrid models. In contrast with the GWO, WOA, and DBO algorithms, the accuracy is enhanced by 2.89%, 2.82%, and 2.72%, respectively. This study proves that the IDBO-CNN-BiLSTM model can be applied to assist emergency decision-making in natural disasters. Full article

This study evaluates the capability of an unconstrained tomographic algorithm to capture 3D water vapor density variability throughout 2017 in Houston, U.S. The algorithm relies solely on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations and does not require an initial guess or other specific constraints regarding water vapor density variability within the tomographic domain. The test domain, featuring 9 km horizontal, 500 m vertical, and 30 min temporal resolutions, yielded remarkable results when compared to data retrieved from the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) data, and GNSS-Radio Occultation (RO). For the first time, a time series of Precipitable Water Vapor maps derived from the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique was used to validate the spatially integrated water vapor computed by GNSS tomography. Tomographic results clearly indicate the passage of Hurricane Harvey, with integrated water vapor peaking at 60 kg/m² and increased humidity at altitudes up to 7.5 km. Our findings suggest that GNSS tomography holds promise as a reliable source of atmospheric water vapor data for various applications. Future enhancements may arise from denser and multi-constellation networks. Full article

This article focuses on developing models that estimate suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) for the Lower Brazos River, Texas, U.S. Historical samples of SSCs from gauge stations and satellite imagery from Landsat Missions and Sentinel Mission 2 were utilized to develop models to estimate SSCs for the Lower Brazos River. The models used in this study to accomplish this goal include support vector machines (SVMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), extreme learning machines (ELMs), and exponential relationships. In addition, flow measurements were used to develop rating curves to estimate SSCs for the Brazos River as a baseline comparison of the models that used satellite imagery to estimate SSCs. The models were evaluated using a Taylor Diagram analysis on the test data set developed for the Brazos River data. Fifteen of the models developed using satellite imagery as inputs performed with a coefficient of determination R² above 0.69, with the three best performing models having an R² of 0.83 to 0.85. One of the best performing models was then utilized to estimate the SSCs before, during, and after Hurricane Harvey to evaluate the impact of this storm on the sediment dynamics along the Lower Brazos River and the model’s ability to estimate SSCs. Full article

Historically, the Texas Gulf Coast has been affected by many tropical storms and hurricanes. The most recent severe impact was caused by Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in August 2017 on the central Texas coast. We evaluated the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the barrier islands of the central Texas coast, including San Jose Island, Mustang Island, and North Padre Island. We used public data sets, including 1 m resolution bare-earth digital elevation models (DEMs), derived from airborne lidar acquisitions before (2016) and after (2018) Hurricane Harvey, and sub-meter scale aerial imagery pre- and post-Harvey to evaluate changes at a regional scale. Shoreline proxies were extracted to quantify shoreline retreat and/or advance, and DEM differencing was performed to quantify net sediment erosion and accretion or deposition. Unmanned aerial vehicle surveys were conducted at each island to produce high-resolution (cm scale) imagery and topographic data used for morphological and change analyses of beaches and dunes at the local scale. The results show that Hurricane Harvey caused drastic local shoreline retreat, reaching 59 m, and significant erosion levels of beach−dune elements immediately after its landfall. Erosion and recovery processes and their levels were influenced by the local geomorphology of the beach−foredune complexes. It is also observed that local depositional events contributed to their post-storm rebuilding. This study aims to enhance the understanding of major storm impacts on coastal areas and help in future protection planning of the Texas coast. It also has broader implications for coastlines on Earth affected by major storms. Full article

Climate change has led to a variety of disasters that have caused damage to infrastructure and the economy with societal impacts to human living. Understanding people’s emotions and stressors during disaster times will enable preparation strategies for mitigating further consequences. In this paper, we mine emotions and stressors encountered by people and shared on Twitter during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 as a showcase. In this work, we acquired a dataset of tweets from Twitter on Hurricane Harvey from 20 August 2017 to 30 August 2017. The dataset consists of around 400,000 tweets and is available on Kaggle. Next, a BERT-based model is employed to predict emotions associated with tweets posted by users. Then, natural language processing (NLP) techniques are utilized on negative-emotion tweets to explore the trends and prevalence of the topics discussed during the disaster event. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling, we identified themes, enabling us to manually extract stressors termed as climate-change-related stressors. Results show that 20 climate-change-related stressors were extracted and that emotions peaked during the deadliest phase of the disaster. This indicates that tracking emotions may be a useful approach for studying environmentally determined well-being outcomes in light of understanding climate change impacts. Full article

Private wells are susceptible to contamination from flooding and are exempt from the federal requirements of the Safe Drinking Water Act. Consequently, well users must manage (e.g., disinfect) and maintain (e.g., regularly test) their own wells to ensure safe drinking water. However, well user practices and perceptions of well water quality in the years following a natural disaster are poorly characterized. An online follow-up survey was administered in October 2020 to private well users who had previously experienced Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The survey was successfully sent to 436 participants, and 69 surveys were returned (15.8% return rate). The survey results indicate that well users who had previously experienced wellhead submersion or a positive bacteria test were more likely to implement well stewardship practices (testing and disinfection) and to report the feeling that their well water was safe. While the majority of well users believed that their water was safe (77.6%), there was a significant decrease in well water being used for drinking, cooking, and for their pets after Hurricane Harvey. Generally, these well users tend to maintain their wells at higher rates than those reported in other communities, but there continues to be a critical need to provide outreach regarding well maintenance practices, especially before natural disaster events occur. Full article

This paper examines the integration of climate risks into structural credit risk models. We focus on applications in housing finance and argue that mortgage defaults due to climate disasters have different statistical features than default due to household-specific reasons. We propose two models incorporating climate risk based on two separate default definitions. The first focuses on default as a response to a decrease in home value, and the second defines default as a consequence of missed mortgage payments. Using mortgage performance data during Hurricane Harvey, we conduct an empirical study whose results suggest that climate events are potentially another source of undiversifiable credit risk affecting homeowners’ ability to make contractual monthly payments. We also show that incorporating this climate-specific default process may capture additional uncertainty in default probability assessments. Full article

Hurricane storm surges are influenced by wind intensity, forward speed, width and slope of the ocean bottom, central pressure, angle of approach, shape of coastal lines, local features, and storm size. A numerical experiment is conducted using the Advanced Circulation + Simulation and Simulating Waves Nearshore (ADCIRC + SWAN) coupled model for understanding the effects of wind intensity, forward speed, and wave on the storm surges caused by Hurricane Harvey. The ADCIRC + SWAN is used to simulate hurricane storm surges and waves. The wind fields of Hurricane Harvey were reconstructed from observed data, aided by a variety of methodologies and analyses conducted by Ocean Weather Inc (OWI) after the event. These reconstructed wind fields were used as the meteorological forcing in the base case in ADCIRC+SWAN to investigate the storm surges caused by the hurricane. Hurricane Harvey was the second most costly hurricane in the United States, causing severe urban flooding by dropping more than 60 inches of rainfall in Texas. The hurricane made three landfalls, with its first landfall as a Category 4 based on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), with wind intensities of 212.98 km/h (59 m/s). The storm surges caused by Hurricane Harvey were unique due to the slow speed, crooked tracks, triple landfalls in the USA, and excessive rain. The model’s storm surge and wave results were compared against observed data. High water marks at 21 locations and time series at 12 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gauges were compared with the generated results. Several cases were investigated by increasing or decreasing the wind intensity or hurricane forward speed by 25% of the OWI wind and pressure data. The effects of the wave were analyzed by comparing the results obtained from ADCIRC + SWAN (with waves) and ADCIRC (without waves) models. The study found that the changes in wind intensity had the most significant effect on storm surges, followed by wave and forward speed changes. This study signifies the importance of considering these factors to enhance accuracy in predicting storm surges. Full article

Advances in deep learning and computer vision are making significant contributions to flood mapping, particularly when integrated with remotely sensed data. Although existing supervised methods, especially deep convolutional neural networks, have proved to be effective, they require intensive manual labeling of flooded pixels to train a multi-layer deep neural network that learns abstract semantic features of the input data. This research introduces a novel weakly supervised approach for pixel-wise flood mapping by leveraging multi-temporal remote sensing imagery and image processing techniques (e.g., Normalized Difference Water Index and edge detection) to create weakly labeled data. Using these weakly labeled data, a bi-temporal U-Net model is then proposed and trained for flood detection without the need for time-consuming and labor-intensive human annotations. Using floods from Hurricanes Florence and Harvey as case studies, we evaluated the performance of the proposed bi-temporal U-Net model and baseline models, such as decision tree, random forest, gradient boost, and adaptive boosting classifiers. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conducted a comprehensive assessment that (1) covered multiple test sites with varying degrees of urbanization, and (2) utilized both bi-temporal (i.e., pre- and post-flood) and uni-temporal (i.e., only post-flood) input. The experimental results showed that the proposed framework of weakly labeled data generation and the bi-temporal U-Net could produce near real-time urban flood maps with consistently high precision, recall, f1 score, IoU score, and overall accuracy compared with baseline machine learning algorithms. Full article

The primary objective of this study was to examine the quality of volunteered geographic information (VGI) data for flood mapping of Hurricane Harvey. As a crowdsourcing platform, the U-Flood project mapped flooded streets in the Houston metro area. This research examines the following: (1) If there are any significant differences in water depth (WD) among the hydraulic and hydrologic (H&H) model, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reference floodplain map, and the VGI? (2) Are there any significant differences in the inundated areas between the floodplain modeled by the VGI and hydraulic simulation? This study used HEC-RAS to simulate flood inundation maps and validated the results with high water marks (HWM) and the FEMA-modeled floodplain after Hurricane Harvey. The statistical results showed that there were significant differences in the WD, the inundated road count, and the length inside/outside of HEC-RAS-modeled floodplain. The results also showed that a less consistent decreasing trend between the U-Flood data and the modeled floodplain over time and space. This study empirically evaluated the data quality of the VGI based on observed and modeled data in flood monitoring. The findings from this study fill the gaps in the literature by assessing the uncertainty and data quality of VGI, providing insights into using supplementary data in flood mapping research. Full article

Many radar-gauge merging methods have been developed to produce improved rainfall data by leveraging the advantages of gauge and radar observations. Two popular merging methods, Regression Kriging and Bayesian Regression Kriging were utilized and compared in this study to produce hourly rainfall data from gauge networks and multi-source radar datasets. The authors collected, processed, and modeled the gauge and radar rainfall data (Stage IV, MRMS and RTMA radar data) of the two extreme storm events (i.e., Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and Tropical Storm Imelda in 2019) occurring in the coastal area in Southeast Texas with devastating flooding. The analysis of the modeled data on consideration of statistical metrics, physical rationality, and computational expenses, implies that while both methods can effectively improve the radar rainfall data, the Regression Kriging model demonstrates its superior performance over that of the Bayesian Regression Kriging model since the latter is found to be prone to overfitting issues due to the clustered gauge distributions. Moreover, the spatial resolution of rainfall data is found to affect the merging results significantly, where the Bayesian Regression Kriging model works unskillfully when radar rainfall data with a coarser resolution is used. The study recommends the use of high-quality radar data with properly spatial-interpolated gauge data to improve the radar-gauge merging methods. The authors believe that the findings of the study are critical for assisting hazard mitigation and future design improvement. Full article