Search Results (37)

The Athabasca River flows through the Lower Athabasca Region (LAR) in Alberta, Canada, which is characterized by variable inter-annual weather, long winters and short summers. LAR is important for the extraction of energy resources and industrial activities that lead to environmental concerns, including river pollution and exploitation. This study attempts to forecast the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray and understand the suitability of HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) in cold weather regions, characterized by poorly gauged streams. Daily temperature and precipitation records (1971–2014) were employed in two calibration–validation schemes: (1) a temporally dependent partition (1971–2000 for calibration; 2001–2014 for validation) and (2) a temporally independent partition (alternating years assigned to calibration and validation). The temporally independent approach achieved superior performance, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.88, outperforming previously developed regional models. HEC-HMS successfully reproduced hydrologic dynamics and peak discharge events under conditions of sparse hydroclimatic data and limited computational inputs, underscoring its robustness for operational forecasting in data-scarce, cold-climate catchments. However, long-term projections may be subject to uncertainty due to the exclusion of anticipated changes in land use and climate forcing. These results substantiate the applicability of HEC-HMS as a cost-effective and reliable tool for hydrological modeling and flow forecasting in support of water resource management, particularly in regions subject to industrial pressures and associated environmental impacts. Full article

Temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) are of critical importance for sustainable aquatic ecosystem and biodiversity in the river systems. This study aims to develop a data-driven model for forecasting water quality in the Athabasca River using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) for forecasting monthly DO and water temperature. DO and water temperature observed at Fort McMurray and Athabasca from 1960 to 2023 were used to train and test the model. The results show the satisfied model performance of DO with a coefficient of determination (R²) value of 0.76 and an RMSE value of 0.79 for training and 0.67 and 0.92 for testing, respectively, at the Fort McMurray station. At the Town of Athabasca station, the RMSE and R² of DO were 0.92 and 0.72 for training and 0.77 and 0.86 for testing, respectively. For the modeled temperature, RMSE and R² were 2.7 and 0.87 for training and 2.2 and 0.95 for testing, respectively, at Fort McMurray and were 2.0 and 0.93 for training and 1.8 and 0.97 for testing, respectively, in the Town of Athabasca. The results show that DO concentration is inversely proportional to the temperature. This implies that the DO could be related to water temperature, which, in turn, is correlated with air temperature. Therefore, the SARIMA model performed reasonably well in representing the dynamics of water temperature and DO in the cold climate river. Such a model can be used in practice to reduce the risk of low DO events. Full article

This review paper investigates the landscape of wildfire-related studies with a focus on infrastructure and evacuations across Canadian provinces, revealing a predominant focus on Alberta, particularly after the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire. The aftermath of this event has heightened attention to the unique challenges faced during evacuations, emphasizing the urgent need for heightened awareness and preparedness, especially in the vulnerable northern communities of Alberta. Studies beyond Alberta contribute to understanding Canadian wildfire dynamics. However, a noticeable research gap in British Columbia raises concerns about research prioritization and resource allocation despite heightened wildfire activity. The fact that some provinces are contributing less than 4.2%, such as Quebec, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Northwest Territories, Yukon, and the Prairies, might be attributed to regional variations influenced by historical wildfire frequency and population density. Thematic analysis categorizing studies into “community support/resilience”, “evacuation efficiency”, and “infrastructure protection/raising awareness” provides nuanced insights. The dominance of the “community support/resilience” category, comprising over 40% of studies, signifies a societal shift towards proactive community engagement. Balanced representation in the “evacuation efficiency” and “infrastructure protection/raising awareness” categories, each contributing over 29%, reflects a collective effort to glean lessons from past evacuations and enhance community preparedness. Temporal trends and thematic analyses spotlight a commitment to continuous improvement, adaptability to emerging challenges, and a growing recognition of the multifaceted aspects of wildfire management. The evolving emphasis on community involvement, responsiveness to changing evacuation dynamics, and heightened awareness of infrastructure protection underscores the proactive stance of the research community, providing insights for shaping future research priorities, policy frameworks, and community resilience strategies in the face of evolving wildfire threats in Canada. Full article

Seismic lines are cleared corridors for the location mapping of subsurface bitumen. After use, the lines can be left to regenerate naturally with varying success. Wildfires, another prominent disturbance in the Boreal region, are propagated by continuous fuel distribution (coarse/fine), meteorological variables (e.g., wind speed, temperature, and precipitation), and the moisture content of the fuel and soil. However, little is known about seismic lines and the potential risk and severity of wildfires. This work presents a case study of wildfire variables on two paired (seismic line and adjacent natural area) sites near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. Wind speed was increased on seismic lines, and the dominant wind direction changed. Higher precipitation, air temperature, and soil moisture and reduced water table depths were observed on seismic lines. Coarse fuel distribution was not continuous on seismic lines; however, fine fuels were. Although the Fire Weather Index (FWI) indicated an enhanced wildfire potential on one line (NS orientation), peat smouldering and ignition models (H_comb/H_ign) showed increased smouldering potential on both seismic lines compared to adjacent natural areas. Future work should focus on expanding the diversity of seismic line characterization, working towards the landscape-scale modelling of these variables. Full article

Background: The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a global health crisis that has affected the psychological well-being of individuals across the world. The persistence of the pandemic and measures to curtail it have tested people’s ability to cope successfully and bounce back from the pandemic, otherwise referred to as resilience. The present study examined resilience levels among residents of Fort McMurray and identified the demographic, clinical and social factors associated with resilience. Methods: The study used a cross-sectional survey design and collected data from 186 participants using online questionnaires. The survey included questions assessing sociodemographic information, mental health history and COVID-19-related variables. The main study outcome was resilience measured using the six-item Brief Resilience Scale (BRS). The data from the survey were analyzed using chi-squared tests and binary logistic regression analyses in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), version 25. Results: The results showed that seven independent variables (age, history of depression, history of anxiety, willingness to receive mental health counselling, support from the government of Alberta and support from employer) were statistically significant within the context of the logistic regression model. A history of an anxiety disorder was demonstrated to best predict low resilience. Participants who had a history of anxiety disorder were five times more likely to show low resilience compared to those without such a history. Participants with a history of depression showed a three-fold likelihood of having low resilience in comparison to those who did not have a history of depression. Individuals who expressed a desire to receive mental health counselling had a four-times likelihood of having low resilience than those who did not express a desire to receive mental health counselling. The results also showed that younger participants were more prone to low resilience compared to older participants. Receiving support from the government and one’s employer is a protective factor. Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of examining resilience and its associated factors during a pandemic such as COVID-19. The results demonstrated that a history of anxiety disorder, depression and being younger were important predictors of low resilience. Responders who reported the desire to receive mental health counselling also reported expressing low resilience. These findings could be used to design and implement interventions aimed at improving the resilience of individuals affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Full article

Stream and river monitoring have an influential role in agriculture, the fishing industry, land surveillance, the oil and gas industry, etc. Recognizing sudden changes in the behavior of streamflow could also provide tremendous insight for decision-making and administration purposes. The primary purpose of this study is to offer a new robust Regime Shift Change Detection (RSCD) algorithm which can identify periods and regime changes without any assumptions regarding the length of these periods. A regime shift algorithm using two different refined method approaches is proposed in this article. The RSCD with Relative Difference (RSCD-RD) and RSCD with Growth Rate (RSCD-GR) are the two main specializations of this regime shift algorithm. We compared these two specializations on train and test datasets and commented on the advantages and each specialization. RSCD-GR and RSCD-RD were equally effective in detecting regime changes when thresholds were pinpointed for each station and season. However, RSCD-RD outperformed RSCD-GR when general thresholds were used for cold and warm months. A strength of RSCD-GR is the ability to investigate newly observed data separately, while RSCD-RD may require re-investigation of historical data in some cases. A regime change was detected in the monthly streamflow data of the Athabasca River at Athabasca (07BE001) in May 2007, while no such change was observed in the monthly streamflow data of the Athabasca River below Fort McMurray (07DA001). The discrepancy could be attributed to factors such as the clarity of the river water from Saskatchewan or the utilization of industrial water. Additional investigation might be required to determine the underlying causes. Full article

Background: Resilience after natural disasters is becoming an increasingly key area of research. In April 2020, parts of Fort McMurray were affected by severe floods. The flooding caused the loss of properties, evacuation of some residents, and effects on their mental health. Objective: This study explores the prevalence and associated factors between flood experience and low resilience a year after the 2020 floods in Fort McMurray. Method: Data collection was accomplished one year after the flood, from 24 April to 2 June 2021, using an online survey. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 25 using univariate analysis with the chi-squared test and binary logistic regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of low resilience was 37.4%. Respondents under 25 years were nearly 26 times more likely to show low resilience (OR = 0.038; 95% CI 0.004–0.384) than respondents 40 years and above. Responders with a history of depression (OR = 0.258 95% CI: 0.089–0.744) and a history of anxiety (OR = 0.212; CI 95% 0.068–0.661) were nearly four to five times more likely to show low resilience than those without a history. Similarly, respondents willing to receive mental health counselling (OR = 0.134 95% CI: 0.047–0.378) were 7.5 times more likely to show low resilience. Participants residing in the same house before the flood were almost 11 times more likely to show low resilience (OR = 0.095; 95% CI 0.021–0.427) than those who relocated. Participants who received support from the Government of Alberta were less likely to express low resilience than those who received no or limited support (OR = 208.343; 95% CI 3.284–13,218.663). Conclusion: The study showed a low resilience rate among respondents following the 2020 flooding in Fort McMurray. Factors contributing to low resilience include age, history of depression or anxiety, and place of residence after the flood. After the flood, receiving support from the government was shown to be a protective factor. Further studies are needed to explore robust risk factors of low resilience and measures to promote normal to high resilience among flood victims in affected communities. Full article

Background: Based on the most common psychological difficulties of the evacuees from the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta, Canada, a therapist-guided cognitive behavioral self-treatment was developed. This study aimed to explore how gender influences the usage and subjective appreciation of the RESILIENT online treatment. Methods: Our study included 81 English-speaking evacuees with significant posttraumatic symptoms, or with some posttraumatic symptoms accompanied by at least mild depression symptoms or subclinical insomnia, and who logged into the platform at least once. Various usage and subjective appreciation variables were analyzed, including number of completed sessions, number of logins, number of words per session, perceived efforts, perception of usefulness and intention to continue using the different strategies. Results: No difference was detected in most objective usage indicators. The number of words written in sessions 7 and 10 was significantly greater for women than for men. Regarding subjective appreciation, men had a greater perception of having put strong efforts in the cognitive restructuring strategy, while women reported in a greater proportion that they wanted to continue using physical exercise as a behavioral activation strategy. Conclusions: Our study offers a first look into how women and men use online treatments, and what their preferences are. Full article

Suicidal ideation and thoughts of self-harm continue to be challenging public health problems. It is presently unknown what the prevalence and correlates of suicidal thoughts and self-harm are in female residents of Fort McMurray, a city that has endured wildfires, flooding, and the COVID-19 pandemic in the last five years. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation and thoughts of self-harm among female residents of Fort McMurray. A cross-sectional study using an online survey questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic and clinical information from the residents of Fort McMurray between 24 April and 2 June 2021. Suicidal ideation and thoughts of self-harm among females were assessed using the ninth question of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, a validated screening tool used to assess depression symptoms. Likely generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive disorder (MDD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and low resilience were measured using standardized rating scales. Data were analyzed with SPSS version 25 using chi-squared tests and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among Fort McMurray residents, 249 accessed the online survey, while 186 ultimately completed it, yielding a survey completion rate of 74.7%. Of these, 159 (85%) were females. After controlling for other variables in the regression model, respondents who expressed a desire to receive mental health counselling were more than seven times more likely to report suicidal ideation and thoughts of self-harm compared to the respondents who did not desire to receive mental health counselling (OR: 7.29; 95% CI: 1.19–44.58). Similarly, respondents who reported having abused alcohol in the past year were nearly four times more likely to report suicidal ideation or thoughts of self-harm compared to the respondents who said they had not abused alcohol in the past year (OR: 3.91; 95% CI: 1.05–14.57). A high prevalence of suicidal thoughts and thoughts of self-harm were reported among female residents of Fort McMurray. Timely access to adequate mental health support should be offered to female residents of communities impacted by multiple natural disasters, particularly residents who self-report alcohol abuse or desire to receive mental health counselling. Full article

Pre- and post-fire airborne lidar data provide an opportunity to determine peat combustion/loss across broad spatial extents. However, lidar measurements of ground surface elevation are prone to uncertainties. Errors may be introduced in several ways, particularly associated with the timing of data collection and the classification of ground points. Ground elevation data must be accurate and precise when estimating relatively small elevation changes due to combustion and subsequent carbon losses. This study identifies the impact of post-fire vegetation regeneration on ground classification parameterizations for optimal accuracy using TerraScan and LAStools with airborne lidar data collected in three wavelengths: 532 nm, 1064 nm, and 1550 nm in low relief boreal peatland environments. While the focus of the study is on elevation accuracy and losses from fire, the research is also highly pertinent to hydrological modelling, forestry, geomorphological change, etc. The study area includes burned and unburned boreal peatlands south of Fort McMurray, Alberta. Lidar and field validation data were collected in July 2018, following the 2016 Horse River Wildfire. An iterative ground classification analysis was conducted whereby validation points were compared with lidar ground-classified data in five environments: road, unburned, burned with shorter vegetative regeneration (SR), burned with taller vegetative regeneration (TR), and cumulative burned (both SR and TR areas) in each of the three laser emission wavelengths individually, as well as combinations of 1550 nm and 1064 nm and 1550 nm, 1064 nm, and 532 nm. We find an optimal average elevational offset of ~0.00 m in SR areas with a range (RMSE) of ~0.09 m using 532 nm data. Average accuracy remains the same in cumulative burned and TR areas, but RMSE increased to ~0.13 m and ~0.16 m, respectively, using 1550 nm and 1064 nm combined data. Finally, data averages ~0.01 m above the field-measured ground surface in unburned boreal peatland and transition areas (RMSE of ~0.19 m) using all wavelengths combined. We conclude that the ‘best’ offset for depth of burn within boreal peatlands is expected to be ~0.01 m, with single point measurement uncertainties upwards of ~0.25 m (RMSE) in areas of tall, dense vegetation regeneration. The importance of classification parameterization identified in this study also highlights the need for more intelligent adaptative classification routines, which can be used in other environments. Full article

Background: Over 90,000 residents had to be evacuated from Fort McMurray (FMM), Alberta, Canada due to the wildfire that engulfed the city in May 2016. Overall, about 2400 homes or 10% of the housing stock in Fort McMurray were destroyed. The fire consumed about 200,000 hectors of forest, reaching into Saskatchewan. During major disasters, communities’ infrastructure is disrupted, and psychological, economic, and environmental effects are felt for years afterwards. Objective: Five years after the wildfire disaster, this study assessed the prevalence rate of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Fort McMurray residents and determined the demographic, clinical, and other risk factors of probable MDD and PTSD. Methodology: A quantitative cross-sectional survey was conducted to collect data through an online questionnaire administered via REDCap between 24 April and 2 June 2021. The Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used to assess the presence of MDD symptoms in respondents. The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-C) was used to assess likely PTSD in respondents. Descriptive, univariate, and multivariate regression analyses were employed. Results: 186 out of 249 individuals who accessed the survey link completed it (74.7% response rate). The median age of the subscribers was 42. The sample included a majority of 159 (85.5%) females; 98 (52.7%) > 40 years of age; 175 (94.1%) employed; and 132 (71%) in a relationship. The overall prevalence of MDD symptoms in our study sample was 45.0% (76). Four variables independently predicted MDD symptoms in the multivariate logistic regression model, including: unemployed (OR = 12.39; 95% CI: 1.21–126.37), have received a mental diagnosis of MDD (OR = 4.50; 95% CI: 1.57−12.92), taking sedative-hypnotics (OR = 5.27; 95% CI: 1.01−27.39), and willingness to receive mental health counseling (OR = 4.90; 95% CI: 1.95–12.31). The prevalence of likely PTSD among our respondents was 39.6% (65). Three independent variables: received a mental health depression diagnosis from a health professional (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.40–14.44), would like to receive mental health counseling (OR = 4.36, 95% CI: 1.54–12.34), and have only limited or no support from family (OR = 11.01, 95% CI: 1.92–63.20) contributed significantly to the model for predicting likely PTSD among respondents while controlling the other factors in the regression model. Conclusions: According to this study, unemployment, taking sleeping pills, having a prior depression diagnosis, and the willingness to receive mental health counseling significantly increase the odds of having MDD and PTSD following wildfires. Family support may protect against the development of these conditions. Full article

Background: Natural disasters happen in an increased frequency, and telemental health interventions could offer easily accessible help to reduce mental health symptoms experienced by survivors. However, there are very few programs offered to natural disaster survivors, and no research exists on therapists’ experiences with providing blended interventions for natural disaster survivors. Aims: Our qualitative case study aims to describe psychologists’ experiences with an online, therapist-assisted blended intervention for survivors of the Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta, Canada. Method: The RESILIENT intervention was developed in the frames of a randomized controlled trial to promote resilience after the Fort McMurray wildfires by providing survivors free access to a 12-module, therapist-assisted intervention, aiming to improve post-traumatic stress, insomnia, and depression symptoms. A focus group design was used to collect data from the therapists, and emerging common themes were identified by thematic analysis. Results: Therapists felt they could build strong alliances and communicate emotions and empathy effectively, although the lack of nonverbal cues posed some challenges. The intervention, according to participating therapists, was less suitable for participants in high-stress situations and in case of discrepancy between client expectations and the intervention content. Moreover, the therapists perceived specific interventions as easy-to-use or as more challenging based on their complexity and on the therapist support needed for executing them. Client engagement in the program emerged as an underlying theme that had fundamental impact on alliance, communication, and ultimately, treatment efficiency. Therapist training and supervision was perceived as crucial for the success of the program delivery. Conclusions: Our findings provided several implications for the optimalization of blended interventions for natural disaster survivors from our therapists’ perspective. Full article

This paper presents the results of a survey that was undertaken to examine homeowners’ FireSmart mitigation practices and investigate existing incentives and barriers to uptake of FireSmart Canada’s recommended wildfire mitigation activities in the Urban Service Area of Fort McMurray Alberta. Single-family residential property owners, the large majority of whom were affected by the Horse River wildfire, were invited to participate in an online survey. A total of 496 surveys were completed, with a response rate of 38%. We found that most of the participants generally perceive a low to moderate wildfire risk to their properties: they felt there was a low chance of a catastrophic fire happening soon and/or ‘enough’ had already been done to reduce the immediate risk. Although about half of the participants searched for information about FireSmart, having information or knowledge of FireSmart did not translate into substantial adoption of recommended mitigation actions. Survey participants generally preferred and implemented more of the low-cost, low effort mitigation measures such as cutting grasses and cleaning debris, likely for reasons other than wildfire risk reduction. With regard to structural measures, we found asphalt shingles and vinyl siding were present on the majority of homes; although this was not a choice but was provided by the builder or on the home when it was purchased. Very few respondents were willing to replace their siding or roof––the cost was the single biggest factor. In addition, we identified several other factors as negatively influencing homeowners’ mitigation actions, including the tendency to shift responsibility to the municipal government and social pressure such as neighbors not being as proactive in completing FireSmart mitigation measures. Recommendations that may help promote positive wildfire mitigation behaviors are discussed. Full article

Background: The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has produced adverse health consequences, including mental health consequences. Studies indicate that residents of Fort McMurray, a community which has experienced trauma from flooding and wildfires in the past, may be more vulnerable to the mental health effects of the pandemic. Objective: This study aimed to examine the prevalence and predictors of likely Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) among residents of Fort McMurray during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A cross-sectional approach was adopted utilizing an online survey questionnaire to gather sociodemographic data, COVID-19 related data, and clinical information, including likely MDD using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) scale, from the residents of Fort McMurray between the period of 24 April to 2 June 2021. Results: Overall, 186 individuals completed the survey out of 249 residents who accessed the online survey, yielding a completion rate of 74.7%. The prevalence of likely MDD among respondents was 45%. Respondents willing to receive mental health counselling were five times more likely to experience MDD during the COVID-19 pandemic (OR = 5.48; 95% CI: 1.95–15.40). Respondents with a history of depression were nearly five folds more likely to report MDD during the era of the pandemic than residents without a history of depression (OR = 4.64; 95% CI: 1.49–14.44). Similarly, respondents with a history of taking hypnotics (sleeping tablets) were nearly six-fold more likely to express MDD than respondents with no history of receiving sleeping tablets (OR = 5.72; 95% CI: 1.08–30.30). Finally, respondents who reported receiving only partial support from the employer had three times higher odds of having likely MDD than those who received absolute support from the employer (OR = 3.50; 95% CI: 1.24–9.82). Conclusion: In addition to the effect of the pandemic and other measures taken to curb the psychopathological impact of the pandemic, policymakers need to implement policies to manage individuals with preexisting mental health conditions and provide strong employer support. Full article

Background: Natural disasters adversely impact individuals living in places where they occur, resulting in emotional distress. The wildfire that occurred in Fort McMurray (FMM), Alberta in 2016 is no different. Objective: This study aims to identify the prevalence and predictors of Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) symptoms in residents of FMM five years after the devastating wildfires. Methods: Data for the study were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted online from the 24th of April to the 2nd of June 2021. A validated instrument, the GAD-7 scale, was used to collect information on anxiety. Results: This study involved 186 residents of FMM, of which the majority were females (85.5%), employed (94.1%), working at school boards (50.0%), and were either married, cohabiting, or partnered (71.0%). The prevalence of likely GAD among the study sample was 42.5%. Unemployed respondents were seventeen times more likely to develop GAD symptoms (OR = 16.62; 95% C.I. 1.23–223.67) while respondents who would like to receive mental health counseling were five times more likely to experience GAD symptoms (OR = 5.35; 95% C.I. 2.03–14.15). Respondents who suffered a loss of property because of the wildfire were two times more likely to develop GAD symptoms (OR = 2.36; 95% C.I. 1.01–22.62). Conclusion: Policymakers may mitigate GAD symptoms, particularly after natural disasters, by making long-term mental health counseling available and a key component of post-disaster management, and by investing in the social capital of the people to build resilience and support to deal with the post-disaster mental health effects. Full article