Search Results (38)

This study presents a digital twin–based framework for assessing rockfall hazards at the immediate vicinity of the Rumkale Archaeological Site, a geologically sensitive and culturally significant location in southeastern Türkiye. Historically associated with early Christianity and strategically located along the Euphrates, Rumkale is a protected heritage site that attracts increasing numbers of visitors. Here, high-resolution photogrammetric models were generated using imagery acquired from a remotely piloted aircraft system and post-processed with ground control points to produce a spatially accurate 3D digital twin. Field-based geomechanical measurements including discontinuity orientations, joint classifications, and strength parameters were integrated with digital analyses to identify and evaluate hazardous rock blocks. Kinematic assessments conducted in the study revealed susceptibility to planar, wedge, and toppling failures. The results showed the role of lithological structure, active tectonics, and environmental factors in driving slope instability. The proposed methodology demonstrates effective use of digital twin technologies in conjunction with traditional geotechnical techniques, offering a replicable and non-invasive approach for site-scale hazard evaluation and conservation planning in heritage contexts. This work contributes to the advancement of interdisciplinary methods for geohazard-informed management of cultural landscapes. Full article

Revealing the complex system of transboundary conflicts would help to understand the behavior of states and anticipate potential actions that would collectively reflect the state doctrine. However, a specific approach to the state political doctrine (SPD) for governing transboundary water has not been formalized. The core academic contribution of this research is to formalize the structure of the SPD for transboundary water, which might assist in fostering water cooperation and peacebuilding in one of the most conflict-prone regions—the Middle East and South Africa—by examining the upstream countries’ behavior. Case studies include Turkey in the Euphrates–Tigris Basins, Israel in the Jordan River Basin, and Ethiopia in the Nile River Basin. The theoretical framework presents a new paradigm that systematically links a state’s essential drivers, political philosophy, and potential actions, employing the Hegelian dialectic of thesis–antithesis–synthesis and the three Doctrines of Being, Essence, and Concept to articulate the state’s behavior and its indispensable core principles for survival. It is integrated with Arnold Toynbee’s challenge-and-response theory to analyze upstream motives. This study reviewed 328 documents and pieces of literature alongside 105 expert discussions. The key findings include the three upstream countries embracing different SPDs to address specific challenges at the state level, where Turkey employs the Water-Bank Doctrine, Israel utilizes the Identity-Seeking Doctrine, and Ethiopia adopts the Nation Rise Power Doctrine. Besides the critical external challenges that limit water availability, such as the impact of climate change, the time factor is a crucial key to shifting the bargaining power and impacting the adopted SPD, thereby affecting water diplomacy and regional water cooperation. Full article

Conservation of ecologically important freshwater mussels is high on the international agenda, but there is only limited knowledge about the status of rare unionid species in arid and semi-arid areas which are particularly vulnerable. One such example concerns Anodonta vescoiana which was recognized as one of the few endemic species of unionid mussels from Iraq and was restricted to the marshes of southern Mesopotamia and its connected river systems. The last confirmed report of A. vescoiana was in 2009 from the Al-Ezz River. We conducted extensive field surveys during the years 2021 and 2022 at approximately 20 freshwater sites, but we failed to observe any live or dead specimens, suggesting a probable extirpation or severe decline. In contrast, we documented the invasive Sinanodonta woodiana at numerous sites across the Tigris–Euphrates basin including the Al-Ezz River. This documentation of S. woodiana indicates successful establishment of the species and colonization of freshwater systems modified by anthropogenic practices, which include alterations of hydrological dynamics and ecological conditions. Here, we compile existing evidence of the global ecological impacts and development of S. woodiana invasion, while also highlighting Iraq as an important example of the displacement of native unionid mussel species by invasive alien unionids. We assessed the factors that contributed to the disappearance of A. vescoiana in Iraq including biological competition (with S. woodiana), salinity stress, habitat fragmentation, and pollution. The time window to act and prevent the further decline of rare unionid species in Iraq, as well as other arid and semi-arid areas which face similar threats, is short. Urgent actions include systematic monitoring to identify remnant populations, implementing biosecurity policies (for fisheries or habitats), and restoration (of habitats) to secure the long-term persistence of remaining unionid diversity. Full article

Iraq has faced escalating water scarcity over the past two decades, driven by climate change, upstream water withdrawals, and prolonged economic instability. These factors have caused deterioration in irrigation systems, inefficient water distribution, and growing social unrest. As per capita water availability falls below critical levels, Iraq is entering a period of acute water stress. This escalating water scarcity directly impacts water and food security, public health, and economic stability. This study aims to develop a general framework combining decision support systems (DSSs) with Integrated Comprehensive Water Management Strategies (ICWMSs) to support water planning, allocation, and response to ongoing water scarcity and reductions in Iraq. Implementing such a system is essential for Iraq to alleviate its continuing severe situation and adequately tackle its worsening water scarcity that has intensified over the years. This integrated approach is fundamental for enhancing planning efficiency, improving operational performance and monitoring, optimizing water allocation, and guiding informed policy decisions under scarcity and uncertainty. The current study highlights various international case studies that show that DSSs integrate real-time data, artificial intelligence, and advanced modeling to provide actionable policies for water management. Implementing such a framework is crucial for Iraq to mitigate this critical situation and effectively address the escalating water scarcity. Furthermore, Iraq’s water management system requires modifications considering present and expected future challenges. This study analyzes the inflows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from 1933 to 2022, revealing significant reductions in water flow: a 31% decrease in the Tigris and a 49.5% decline in the Euphrates by 2021. This study highlights the future 7–20% water deficit between 2020 and 2035. Furthermore, this study introduces a flexible, tool-based framework supported by a DSS with the DPSIR model (Driving Forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, and Responses) designed to address and reduce the gap between water availability and increasing demand. This approach proposes a multi-hazard risk matrix to identify and prioritize strategic risks facing Iraq’s water sector. This matrix links each hazard with appropriate DSS-based response measures and supports scenario planning under the ICWMS framework. The proposed framework integrates hydro-meteorological data analysis with hydrological simulation models and long-term investment strategies. It also emphasizes the development of institutional frameworks, the promotion of water diplomacy, and the establishment of transboundary water allocation and operational policy agreements. Efforts to enhance national security and regional stability among riparian countries complement these actions to tackle water scarcity effectively. Simultaneously, this framework offers a practical guideline for water managers to adopt the best management policies without bias or discrimination between stakeholders. By addressing the combined impacts of anthropogenic and climate change, the proposed framework aims to ensure rational water allocation, enhance resilience, and secure Iraq’s water strategies, ensuring sustainability for future generations. Full article

Water stress has induced many environmental and developmental conflicts in the arid basins in the Middle East region under the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic influence. Quantifying the anthropogenic influence on water stress at the basin scale is very challenging because of insufficient anthropogenic-related spatial data. Given that climate change is a global impact that is hard to mitigate at the basin scale, quantifying anthropogenic influence is practical to inform strategies for alleviating regional water stress. Thus, this study attempts to quantify the contribution of potential anthropogenic factors driving the water stress in the Tigris–Euphrates river basin (TERB) using pure spatial data. The water stress level in the studied basin was evaluated via the water stress index (WSI), which can be obtained as the ratio of water demand to water availability, from the Aqueduct 4.0 dataset. The driving contributions of social development (population, POP; fine particulate matter, PM2.5), economic development (gross domestic product, GDP; electricity consumption, EC), and landscape modification (urban expansion index, UEI; cultivated land expansion index, CEI) factors were quantitatively evaluated based on a spatial statistical geographical detector model (GDM). Assessment showed that nearly 66.13% of the TERB area was under severe water stress, particularly in Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The q statistic of the GDM, adopted to quantify the contribution of driving factors, revealed that CEI (0.174), EC (0.145), and GDP (0.123) were the dominant factors driving water stress. These individual influences were further enhanced particularly in the interaction between economic development and landscape modification factors such as UEI and CEI (0.566), PM2.5 and UEI (0.350), EC and CEI (0.346), GDP and CEI (0.323), and PM2.5 and GDP (0.312). The findings of this research can provide some beneficial references to alleviate the TERB’s water stress for its future sustainable development. Full article

Transboundary water disputes arise as nations compete over shared water resources, exacerbated by climate change, socio-economic inequalities, and geopolitical tensions. These disputes, prominent in river basins like the Nile, Euphrates–Tigris, and Indus, threaten regional stability, water security, and ecological sustainability. This study investigates the drivers of such conflicts, evaluates the role of historical treaties, and examines the socio-economic and political dynamics, including hydro-hegemony and power imbalances, that influence governance. The research addresses the two following key questions: what factors drive transboundary water disputes, and what lessons from past conflicts and cooperation can guide future governance frameworks? Using a descriptive approach, the study critically analyses the literature and case studies to identify actionable insights. Specific objectives include analyzing drivers of conflict, assessing treaty efficacy, and deriving sustainable water-sharing strategies. Findings reveal that climate variability, population growth, and outdated agreements intensify challenges. In the Nile River Basin, Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) strains relations, while in the Indus Basin, the outdated Indus Waters Treaty struggles to address modern demands. Similarly, unilateral actions in the Euphrates–Tigris River Basin (ETRB) exacerbate socio-political instability. The study underscores the importance of inclusive governance, equitable treaties, and integrated strategies, such as integrated water resources management and climate adaptation, to balance ecological, socio-economic, and geopolitical priorities. Linking these efforts to the Sustainable Development Goals highlights their potential to transform conflict into opportunities for regional stability and shared prosperity. Full article

The UNESCO site of Arslantepe is located in Eastern Anatolia in the Malatya Plain (Türkiye) about 10 km from the Euphrates River. Here for about a century archaeological excavations have been carried out, reconstructing a long sequence of human frequentation starting from 5000 years BC up to the Middle Ages. The settlement, one of the most important and largest in the region, has undergone numerous changes over time, resulting in a complex superposition of structures, palaces, temples, and burials concentrated on the hill. With the aim of extending the knowledge of the site, in 2022, geophysical surveys were carried out through the application of electrical resistivity tomography, covering a surface of approximately 4300 m² in an unexplored area at the foot of the hill. In this paper, the Extended data-adaptive Probability-based Electrical Resistivity Tomography Inversion approach (E-PERTI), recently published as a development of the probability tomography imaging approach, has been applied to a large apparent resistivity field dataset, providing the best estimate of the most probable estimate of the resistivity distribution through an intrinsic linear regression model implementing standard least squares routines. The results seem to prove the effectiveness of the E-PERTI approach in noise dejection, enhancing associated resistivity highs that can be ascribable to the trace of a potential fortification. The obtained information represents new, unexpected data that open new frontiers of archaeological research, adding value to the knowledge of the site. Full article

The Arabian Desert is characterised by very low rainfall and high evaporation, yet over 210 springs are on its northeastern edge in central Iraq along the Abu Jir lineament, which represents the western depositional margin of a foreland basin infilled by the floodplain sediments of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; there is little evidence of faulting. The springs discharge from gently east-dipping Paleocene–Eocene limestones, either where groundwater flowpaths intersect the ground surface or where groundwater flow is forced to the surface by confining aquitards. Calculated annual recharge to the aquifer system across the Arabian Desert plateau (130–500 million m³) is significant, largely due to rapid infiltration through karst dolines, such that karst porosity is the primary enabler of groundwater recharge. The recharge is enough to maintain flow at the Abu Jir springs, but active management of groundwater extraction for agriculture is required for their long-term sustainability. The hydrochemistry of the springs is determined by evaporation, rainfall composition (high SO₄ concentrations are due to the dissolution of wind-blown gypsum in rainfall), and plant uptake of Ca and K (despite the sparse vegetation). Limestone dissolution has relatively little impact; many of the springs are undersaturated with respect to calcite and lack tufa/travertine deposits. The springs at Hit-Kubaysa contain tar and high levels of H₂S that probably seeped upwards along subvertical faults from underlying oil reservoirs; this is the only location along the Abu Jir lineament where deep-seated faults penetrate to the surface. The presence of hydrocarbons reduces the Hit-Kubaysa spring water and converts the dissolved SO₄ to H₂S. Full article

Water scarcity is an important threat to food security in the Euphrates–Tigris river. Water scarcity is a huge worldwide problem that results from the rapid increase in water demand, which exceeds the amount of available water. The most significant problems currently affecting countries are food insecurity water scarcity. The Euphrates–Tigris river countries suffer from different political issues, such as the Syrian war and internal civil conflicts in Iraq. In addition, this area consists of only three countries: Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, but it affects the entire Middle East. Turkey has established many irrigation projects compared to Iraq, which still suffers from the previous American invasion. Therefore, this study examines the Euphrates–Tigris river (using two countries) to examine the relationship between water scarcity and food security from 1992 to 2020. This study will be conducted using a fixed and random regression approach over 18 years. The results show a negative relationship between water scarcity and food security in the short run, at a 10% significance level, and a long-term positive relationship of 1%. Thus, the use of research and development and the encouragement of investments will help policymakers to develop a nexus between water scarcity and food security. Full article

Populus euphratica Oliv., an indicator species for eco-environmental change in arid areas, plays a key role in maintaining the stability of fragile oasis–desert ecosystems. Owing to human interference as well as to the harshness of the natural environment, P. euphratica forests have suffered severe damage and degradation, with trunk cavities (i.e., hollows) becoming increasingly pronounced, and thus posing a great threat to the growth, health, and survival of the species. Currently, there is a gap in our understanding of cavity formation and its distribution in P. euphratica. Here, cavities in the trunks and branches of a P. euphratica in a typical transect (Arghan) along the lower Tarim River were studied based on field positioning observations combined with laboratory analysis. The results revealed a large number of hollow-bearing P. euphratica stands in the study area; indeed, trees with hollows accounted for 56% of the sampled trees, with approximately 159 trees/ha. Sixty-six percent of hollow trees exhibited large (15 cm ≤ cavity width (CW) < 30 cm) or very large (CW > 30 cm) hollows. The main types of cavities in the trees were trunk main (31.3%), trunk top (20.7%), branch end (19.5%), and branch middle (19.5%). Tree parameters, such as diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height (TH), east–west crown width (EWCW), height under branches (UBH), and crown loss (CL) were significantly different between hollow and non-hollow trees. Both cavity height and width were significantly and positively correlated with DBH and CL, as well as with average crown width (ACW) (p < 0.001) and the distance from the tree to the river. The proportion of P. euphratica trees with cavities showed an overall increasing trend with increasing groundwater depth. Our findings show that cavities in P. euphratica varied with different tree architectural characteristics. Water availability is a major environmental factor influencing the occurrence of hollowing in desert riparian forests. The results provide scientific support for the conservation and sustainable management of existing desert riparian forest ecosystems. Full article

The Sivrice earthquake (Mw 6.8) occurred on 24 January 2020 along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) zone of Türkiye, and epicentral information and focal mechanism solutions were published by two national and six international seismic stations. Here, we analyzed epicentral locations and the major fault trace using aerial photogrammetric images taken two days after, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry. Although the focal mechanism solutions were similar, the epicenters were largely displaced. Several bright lineaments with a stair-like geometry were observed in aerial images of the Euphrates River channel along the fault trace. These lineaments, also called en echelon fractures in structural geology, are like right-lateral segments of a fault plane aligning the river channel, cut and offset by those similar in trend with the EAF and with alignments of a left lateral sense, as is the EAF motion sense. We interpret that the river local channel follows a right-lateral fault structure. The traces were lost a few days later, which proves the essentiality of remote sensing technologies for obtaining precise information in large regions. The time series analysis for one year period from Sentinel-1 SAR data also illustrated the displacements in the region sourced from the earthquake. Full article

With global warming and increasing human activities, exploring the impact of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and climate change on forest ecosystems is crucial. In this study, we focus on Euphrates poplar (Populus euphratica Oliv.) in the upper reaches of the Tarim River in the Alaer region of Xinjiang. We use dendrochronological methods, tree-ring width, and stable carbon isotope series to explain basal area increment (BAI) and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) changes. We further explore the influence of past climate change and human activities on the radial growth and iWUE of P. euphratica through stable oxygen isotope analysis combined with historical literature records. The results showed that relative humidity had an essential effect on Δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fractionation in P. euphratica tree rings, whereas the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was considered the main factor influencing the inter-annual variability of the iWUE and BAI. Since 1850, long-term variations in iWUE have exhibited an upward trajectory correlated with rising atmospheric CO₂ levels. Approximately 13% of this iWUE increase can be attributed to changes in carbon-concentration-induced water use efficiency (^cciWUE). Although Δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O were generally uncorrelated between 1850 and 2018, around 1918, their relationship changed from being weakly correlated to being significantly negatively correlated, which may record changes related to the upstream Tarim River diversion. During the period from 1850 to 2018, both the BAI and iWUE showed an increasing trend for P. euphratica growth; however, the relationship between them was not stable: during 1850–1958, both variables were mainly influenced by climatic factors, while during 1959–2018, the most important influence was due to human activities, specifically agricultural development and irrigation diversions. An abrupt surge in the BAI was observed from 1959 to 1982, reaching its peak around 1982. Surprisingly, post-1983, the escalating iWUE did not correspond with a continuation of this upward trajectory in the BAI, highlighting a divergence from the previous trend where the enhanced iWUE no longer facilitated the growth of P. euphratica. Despite P. euphratica having adapted to the continuously rising C_a, improving its iWUE and growth capacity, this adaptive ability is unstable and may easily be affected by human activities. Overall, the increase in C_a has increased the iWUE of P. euphratica and promoted its growth at a low frequency, while human activities have promoted its development at a high frequency. Full article

In the face of mounting global challenges stemming from population growth and climate fluctuations, the sustainable management of water resources emerges as a paramount concern. This scientific endeavor casts its gaze upon the Upper Euphrates basin, homing in on the Tunceli Munzur water sub-basin and the Sakarya Basin’s Kütahya Porsuk Stream Beşdeğirmen rivers. The investigation unfolds through the intricate analysis of daily average flow data, total daily precipitation, and daily average air temperature values, with the objective of unraveling the complexities of future water potential estimation. Central to our exploration are a series of well-established techniques including linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extra trees regression (ETR). We employ these methodologies diligently to decipher patterns woven within the dataset, fostering an informed understanding of water dynamics. To ascend the pinnacle of estimation accuracy, we introduce a groundbreaking hybrid approach, wherein the enigmatic wavelet transform (WT) technique assumes a pivotal role. Through systematic stratification of our dataset into training, validation, and test sets, comprising roughly 65%, 15%, and 20% of the data, respectively, a comprehensive experiment takes shape. Our results unveil the formidable performance of the ETR method, achieving a striking 88% estimation accuracy for the Porsuk Stream Beşdeğirmen, while the RF method garners a commendable 85.2% success rate for the Munzur water Melekbahçe. The apex of innovation unfolds within our hybrid model, a harmonious fusion of methodologies that transcends their individual capacities. This composite entity elevates estimation success rates by a remarkable 20% for the Munzur water Melekbahçe and an appreciable 11% for the Porsuk Stream Beşdeğirmen. This amalgamation culminates in an extraordinary overall success rate of 97.7%. Our findings transcend mere insights, resonating as guiding beacons for navigating the intricate maze of water resource management in an era marked by uncertainties. This study underscores the indispensability of advanced mathematical paradigms and machine learning frontiers, fortifying the bedrock of sustainable water resource management for the generations to come. By harnessing the fusion of federated learning and a constellation of innovative techniques, we endeavor to illuminate the path towards deciphering the complex tapestry of water resource estimation and management, facilitating a resilient and enduring aquatic world. Full article

Microscopic understanding of tree xylogenesis processes and their relationships with environmental factors is important for tree conservation. To assess the relationship between Euphrates poplar (Populus euphratica) radial growth and environmental factors on short time scales, micro-core samples were collected in the lower Tarim River in northwest China in 2020. We analyzed the intra-annual radial variation in P. euphratica and its relationship with the environment. Our results showed that P. euphratica started to manifest stem radial variations in late April (around DOY (day of year) 114) and stopped displaying stem radial variations in early to mid-September (around DOY255), with an annual stem radial increment of 2620.89 μm and a maximum stem radial variation rate of 22.42 μm/d. The stem radial variation rate was positively correlated with the mean temperature (R² = 0.55, p < 0.01), the maximum temperature (R² = 0.45, p < 0.01), the minimum temperature (R² = 0.49, p < 0.01), the surface temperature (R² = 0.64, p < 0.01), and the vapor pressure deficit (R² = 0.49, p < 0.01), and negatively correlated with the mean atmospheric pressure (R² = 0.41, p < 0.01) and the groundwater depth (R² = 0.45, p < 0.01). The stem radial variations of P. euphratica are mainly influenced by groundwater during the main growing period, and its stem radial variation rate was positive when the fluctuation range of the groundwater depth was 4.17~5.38 m. Therefore, the stem radial variations of P. euphratica in the lower reaches of the Tarim River are mainly influenced by groundwater, which has a reasonable range of 4.17~5.38 m. Full article

Multi-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) change analysis is essential for environmental planning and recourses management. Various global LULC datasets are available now. However, they do not show strong consistency on a regional scale and are mainly time limited. Therefore, high-quality multi-temporal LULC mapping with reasonable consistency on a regional scale is still demanding. In this study, using the Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and the NASA digital elevation model (DEM), LULC mapping of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers basin (TEB) was performed by random forest (RF) classifier in the Google Earth Engine platform during 2000–2022. The spectral bands, spectral indices, morphological, and textural features were applied in the developed procedure. The results indicated that the proposed approach had accurate performance (accuracy = 0.893 and an F score = 0.820) with a good consistency with previous studies. The feature importance evaluation was carried out using Gini index, and spectral indices were identified as the most important features in LULC mapping. Overall, severe LULC change has happened in the TEB during the last two decades. Our results revealed the expansion of water and built-up classes while trees class has experienced a decreasing trend. From a regional perspective, three main areas in the east and south-east of Iraq, north-west of Iraq, and east of Syria were identified where LULC change was intense. These areas are prone to land degradation and dust storms emission problems, and it is necessary to take steps to prevent severe LULC changes in them. Full article