Search Results (16)

Monitoring freshwater resources is essential for assessing the impacts of drought, water management and global warming. Spaceborne LiDAR altimeters allow researchers to obtain water height information, while water area and precipitation data can be obtained using different satellite systems. In our study, we examined 5 years (2018–2022) of data concerning the Euphrates–Tigris Basin (ETB), one of the most important freshwater resources of the Middle East, and the water bodies of both the ETB and the largest lake of Türkiye, Lake Van. A multi-sensor study aimed to detect and monitor water levels and water areas in the water scarcity basin. The ATL13 product of the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) was used to determine water levels, while the normalized difference water index was applied to the Sentinel-2 optical imaging satellite to monitor the water area. Variations in both water level and area may be related to the time series of precipitation data from the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) product. In addition, our results were compared with global HydroWeb water level data. Consequently, it was observed that the water levels in the region decreased by 5–6 m in many reservoirs after 2019. It is noteworthy that there was a decrease of approximately 14 m in the water level and 684 km² in the water area between July 2019 and July 2022 in Lake Therthar. Full article

The Euphrates–Tigris Basin is experiencing significant environmental transformations due to climate change, Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), and anthropogenic pressures. This study employs Earth Map, an open-access remote sensing platform, to comprehensively assess climate trends, vegetation dynamics, water resource variability, and land degradation across the basin. Key findings reveal a geographic shift toward aridity, with declining precipitation in high-altitude headwater regions and rising temperatures exacerbating water scarcity. While cropland expansion and localized improvements in land productivity were observed, large areas—particularly in hyperarid and steppe zones—show early signs of degradation, increasing the risk of dust source expansion. LULCC analysis highlights substantial wetland loss, irreversible urban growth, and agricultural encroachment into fragile ecosystems, with Iraq experiencing the most pronounced transformations. Climate projections under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios indicate intensified warming and aridity, threatening hydrological stability. This study underscores the urgent need for integrated water management, Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN), and climate-resilient policies to safeguard the basin’s ecological and socioeconomic resilience. Earth Map is a vital tool for monitoring environmental changes, offering rapid insights for policymakers and stakeholders in this data-scarce region. Future research should include higher-resolution datasets and localized socioeconomic data to improve adaptive strategies. Full article

Revealing the complex system of transboundary conflicts would help to understand the behavior of states and anticipate potential actions that would collectively reflect the state doctrine. However, a specific approach to the state political doctrine (SPD) for governing transboundary water has not been formalized. The core academic contribution of this research is to formalize the structure of the SPD for transboundary water, which might assist in fostering water cooperation and peacebuilding in one of the most conflict-prone regions—the Middle East and South Africa—by examining the upstream countries’ behavior. Case studies include Turkey in the Euphrates–Tigris Basins, Israel in the Jordan River Basin, and Ethiopia in the Nile River Basin. The theoretical framework presents a new paradigm that systematically links a state’s essential drivers, political philosophy, and potential actions, employing the Hegelian dialectic of thesis–antithesis–synthesis and the three Doctrines of Being, Essence, and Concept to articulate the state’s behavior and its indispensable core principles for survival. It is integrated with Arnold Toynbee’s challenge-and-response theory to analyze upstream motives. This study reviewed 328 documents and pieces of literature alongside 105 expert discussions. The key findings include the three upstream countries embracing different SPDs to address specific challenges at the state level, where Turkey employs the Water-Bank Doctrine, Israel utilizes the Identity-Seeking Doctrine, and Ethiopia adopts the Nation Rise Power Doctrine. Besides the critical external challenges that limit water availability, such as the impact of climate change, the time factor is a crucial key to shifting the bargaining power and impacting the adopted SPD, thereby affecting water diplomacy and regional water cooperation. Full article

The Tigris-Euphrates basin hosts a diverse assemblage of native aquatic plants vital to the region’s ecological and cultural heritage. However, decades of hydrological alterations, pollution, salinity intrusion, habitat destruction, and climate change have caused significant declines in aquatic plant species diversity. This review compiles historical and contemporary information on key native aquatic plant species, assesses their current conservation status, identifies major threats, and provides recommendations for their protection. Sensitive submerged and floating species, including Vallisneria spiralis, Najas marina, and Potamogeton spp., have been particularly affected, with many now being rare or locally extinct. Although restoration efforts in the Mesopotamian Marshes have partially restored some wetlands, aquatic plant conservation remains largely overlooked. We propose targeted recovery plans, integration of aquatic plants into wetland management, enhancement of water quality measures, and increased cross-border hydrological cooperation. Protecting native aquatic flora is essential for maintaining the ecological integrity and resilience of the Tigris-Euphrates basin. Full article

Conservation of ecologically important freshwater mussels is high on the international agenda, but there is only limited knowledge about the status of rare unionid species in arid and semi-arid areas which are particularly vulnerable. One such example concerns Anodonta vescoiana which was recognized as one of the few endemic species of unionid mussels from Iraq and was restricted to the marshes of southern Mesopotamia and its connected river systems. The last confirmed report of A. vescoiana was in 2009 from the Al-Ezz River. We conducted extensive field surveys during the years 2021 and 2022 at approximately 20 freshwater sites, but we failed to observe any live or dead specimens, suggesting a probable extirpation or severe decline. In contrast, we documented the invasive Sinanodonta woodiana at numerous sites across the Tigris–Euphrates basin including the Al-Ezz River. This documentation of S. woodiana indicates successful establishment of the species and colonization of freshwater systems modified by anthropogenic practices, which include alterations of hydrological dynamics and ecological conditions. Here, we compile existing evidence of the global ecological impacts and development of S. woodiana invasion, while also highlighting Iraq as an important example of the displacement of native unionid mussel species by invasive alien unionids. We assessed the factors that contributed to the disappearance of A. vescoiana in Iraq including biological competition (with S. woodiana), salinity stress, habitat fragmentation, and pollution. The time window to act and prevent the further decline of rare unionid species in Iraq, as well as other arid and semi-arid areas which face similar threats, is short. Urgent actions include systematic monitoring to identify remnant populations, implementing biosecurity policies (for fisheries or habitats), and restoration (of habitats) to secure the long-term persistence of remaining unionid diversity. Full article

Water stress has induced many environmental and developmental conflicts in the arid basins in the Middle East region under the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic influence. Quantifying the anthropogenic influence on water stress at the basin scale is very challenging because of insufficient anthropogenic-related spatial data. Given that climate change is a global impact that is hard to mitigate at the basin scale, quantifying anthropogenic influence is practical to inform strategies for alleviating regional water stress. Thus, this study attempts to quantify the contribution of potential anthropogenic factors driving the water stress in the Tigris–Euphrates river basin (TERB) using pure spatial data. The water stress level in the studied basin was evaluated via the water stress index (WSI), which can be obtained as the ratio of water demand to water availability, from the Aqueduct 4.0 dataset. The driving contributions of social development (population, POP; fine particulate matter, PM2.5), economic development (gross domestic product, GDP; electricity consumption, EC), and landscape modification (urban expansion index, UEI; cultivated land expansion index, CEI) factors were quantitatively evaluated based on a spatial statistical geographical detector model (GDM). Assessment showed that nearly 66.13% of the TERB area was under severe water stress, particularly in Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The q statistic of the GDM, adopted to quantify the contribution of driving factors, revealed that CEI (0.174), EC (0.145), and GDP (0.123) were the dominant factors driving water stress. These individual influences were further enhanced particularly in the interaction between economic development and landscape modification factors such as UEI and CEI (0.566), PM2.5 and UEI (0.350), EC and CEI (0.346), GDP and CEI (0.323), and PM2.5 and GDP (0.312). The findings of this research can provide some beneficial references to alleviate the TERB’s water stress for its future sustainable development. Full article

Transboundary water disputes arise as nations compete over shared water resources, exacerbated by climate change, socio-economic inequalities, and geopolitical tensions. These disputes, prominent in river basins like the Nile, Euphrates–Tigris, and Indus, threaten regional stability, water security, and ecological sustainability. This study investigates the drivers of such conflicts, evaluates the role of historical treaties, and examines the socio-economic and political dynamics, including hydro-hegemony and power imbalances, that influence governance. The research addresses the two following key questions: what factors drive transboundary water disputes, and what lessons from past conflicts and cooperation can guide future governance frameworks? Using a descriptive approach, the study critically analyses the literature and case studies to identify actionable insights. Specific objectives include analyzing drivers of conflict, assessing treaty efficacy, and deriving sustainable water-sharing strategies. Findings reveal that climate variability, population growth, and outdated agreements intensify challenges. In the Nile River Basin, Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) strains relations, while in the Indus Basin, the outdated Indus Waters Treaty struggles to address modern demands. Similarly, unilateral actions in the Euphrates–Tigris River Basin (ETRB) exacerbate socio-political instability. The study underscores the importance of inclusive governance, equitable treaties, and integrated strategies, such as integrated water resources management and climate adaptation, to balance ecological, socio-economic, and geopolitical priorities. Linking these efforts to the Sustainable Development Goals highlights their potential to transform conflict into opportunities for regional stability and shared prosperity. Full article

Hydropower is becoming an important renewable energy source in Turkey, but the ever-changing atmospheric and climatic conditions of Turkey make it very difficult to be projected efficiently. Thus, an efficient estimation technique is crucial for it to be adopted as a reliable energy source in the future. This study evaluates Turkey’s hydropower potential in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin under changing climatic conditions. We adapted an empirical equation to model reservoir outflows, considering the site-specific characteristics of 14 major dams. Initial results from employing a model with a constant empirical coefficient, α, yielded moderate predictive accuracy, with R² values ranging from 0.289 to 0.612. A polynomial regression identified optimal α values tailored to each dam’s surface area, significantly improving model performance. The adjusted α reduced predictive bias and increased R² values, enhancing forecast reliability. Seasonal analysis revealed distinct hydropower trends: Ataturk Dam showed a notable decrease of 5.5% in hydropower generation up to 2050, while Birecik and Keban Dams exhibited increases of 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. By putting these discoveries into practice, water resource management may become more robust and sustainable, which is essential for meeting Turkey’s rising energy needs and preparing for future climatic challenges. This study contributes valuable insights for optimizing reservoir operations, ensuring long-term hydropower sustainability, and enhancing the resilience of water resource management systems globally. Full article

The Arabian Desert is characterised by very low rainfall and high evaporation, yet over 210 springs are on its northeastern edge in central Iraq along the Abu Jir lineament, which represents the western depositional margin of a foreland basin infilled by the floodplain sediments of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; there is little evidence of faulting. The springs discharge from gently east-dipping Paleocene–Eocene limestones, either where groundwater flowpaths intersect the ground surface or where groundwater flow is forced to the surface by confining aquitards. Calculated annual recharge to the aquifer system across the Arabian Desert plateau (130–500 million m³) is significant, largely due to rapid infiltration through karst dolines, such that karst porosity is the primary enabler of groundwater recharge. The recharge is enough to maintain flow at the Abu Jir springs, but active management of groundwater extraction for agriculture is required for their long-term sustainability. The hydrochemistry of the springs is determined by evaporation, rainfall composition (high SO₄ concentrations are due to the dissolution of wind-blown gypsum in rainfall), and plant uptake of Ca and K (despite the sparse vegetation). Limestone dissolution has relatively little impact; many of the springs are undersaturated with respect to calcite and lack tufa/travertine deposits. The springs at Hit-Kubaysa contain tar and high levels of H₂S that probably seeped upwards along subvertical faults from underlying oil reservoirs; this is the only location along the Abu Jir lineament where deep-seated faults penetrate to the surface. The presence of hydrocarbons reduces the Hit-Kubaysa spring water and converts the dissolved SO₄ to H₂S. Full article

In this study, the resilience of designed water systems in the face of limited streamflow gauging stations and escalating global warming impacts were investigated. By performing a regression analysis, simulated meteorological data with observed streamflow from 1971 to 2020 across 33 stream gauging stations in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin were correlated. Utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares regression method, streamflow for 2020–2100 using simulated meteorological data under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in CORDEX-EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were also predicted. Streamflow variability was calculated based on meteorological variables and station morphological characteristics, particularly evapotranspiration. Hierarchical clustering analysis identified two clusters among the stream gauging stations, and for each cluster, two streamflow equations were derived. The regression analysis achieved robust streamflow predictions using six representative climate variables, with adj. R² values of 0.7–0.85 across all models, primarily influenced by evapotranspiration. The use of a global model led to a 10% decrease in prediction capabilities for all CORDEX models based on R² performance. This study emphasizes the importance of region homogeneity in estimating streamflow, encompassing both geographical and hydro-meteorological characteristics. Full article

This paper presents two hydrological models developed for the Euphrates–Tigris Basin in Turkey. The first model is a linear regression-based model allowing the estimation of streamflow based on available hydroclimatic data (precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, etc.) with the use of clustering analysis. The second model consists of an elevation-based semi-distributed hydrological model (HBV model), allowing process-based modelling of the watershed. A set of performance metrics identified the HBV model as the best performance in terms of predicting streamflow (NSE = 0.752), while the RCA4-EU regression model of CORDEX showed the most robust performance. The results show the potential of regression models from a computational and data point of view in being integrated into physically based models wherein a hybrid approach might be beneficial. The comparison of conceptual models with statistical analyses of streamflow shows the potential of regression analysis when the regions are clustered in hydro-meteorologically homogeneous groups. The employment of the conceptual model HBV also provides significantly robust streamflow estimation for the region, which is especially important in estimating the hydropower potential of the region’s near future. Full article

Multi-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) change analysis is essential for environmental planning and recourses management. Various global LULC datasets are available now. However, they do not show strong consistency on a regional scale and are mainly time limited. Therefore, high-quality multi-temporal LULC mapping with reasonable consistency on a regional scale is still demanding. In this study, using the Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and the NASA digital elevation model (DEM), LULC mapping of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers basin (TEB) was performed by random forest (RF) classifier in the Google Earth Engine platform during 2000–2022. The spectral bands, spectral indices, morphological, and textural features were applied in the developed procedure. The results indicated that the proposed approach had accurate performance (accuracy = 0.893 and an F score = 0.820) with a good consistency with previous studies. The feature importance evaluation was carried out using Gini index, and spectral indices were identified as the most important features in LULC mapping. Overall, severe LULC change has happened in the TEB during the last two decades. Our results revealed the expansion of water and built-up classes while trees class has experienced a decreasing trend. From a regional perspective, three main areas in the east and south-east of Iraq, north-west of Iraq, and east of Syria were identified where LULC change was intense. These areas are prone to land degradation and dust storms emission problems, and it is necessary to take steps to prevent severe LULC changes in them. Full article

In recent years, the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and the hydrologic cycle have gained importance especially for snow-dominated mountainous basins. Within this scope, the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, a snow-fed transboundary river with several large dams, was selected to investigate the effects of changing climate on seasonal snow and runoff. In this study, two headwater basins of the Euphrates River, ranging in elevation between 1500–3500 m, were assigned and SWAT was employed as a hydrological modeling tool. Model calibration and validation were conducted in a stepwise manner for snow and runoff consecutively. For the snow routine, model parameters were adjusted using MODIS daily snow-covered area, achieving hit rates of more than 95% between MODIS and SWAT. Other model parameters were calibrated successively and later validated according to daily runoff, reaching a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.64–0.82 in both basins. After the modeling stage, the focus was drawn to the impacts of climate change under two different climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in two 30-year projection periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2099). From the results, it is estimated that on average snow water equivalent decreases in the order of 30–39% and snow-covered days shorten by 37–43 days for the two basins until 2099. In terms of runoff, a slight reduction of at most 5% on average volume is projected but more notably, runoff center-time is expected to shift 1–2 weeks earlier by the end of the century. Full article

Due to increasing water use, diversion and salinization, along with subsidence and sea-level rise, deltas in arid regions are shrinking worldwide. Some of the most ecologically important arid deltas include the Colorado, Indus, Nile, and Tigris-Euphrates. The primary stressors vary globally, but these deltas are threatened by increased salinization, water storage and diversion, eutrophication, and wetland loss. In order to make these deltas sustainable over time, some water flow, including seasonal flooding, needs to be re-established. Positive impacts have been seen in the Colorado River delta after flows to the delta were increased. In addition to increasing freshwater flow, collaboration among stakeholders and active management are necessary. For the Nile River, cooperation among different nations in the Nile drainage basin is important. River flow into the Tigris-Euphrates River delta has been affected by politics and civil strife in the Middle East, but some flow has been re-allocated to the delta. Studies commissioned for the Indus River delta recommended re-establishment of some monthly water flow to maintain the river channel and to fight saltwater intrusion. However, accelerating climate impacts, socio-political conflicts, and growing populations suggest a dire future for arid deltas. Full article

Developing water technology and management systems is not sufficient to cope with the water shortage, where political decisions might be considered as a critical element in this context. The Euphrates–Tigris basin has been suffering for decades from political instability and mismanagement. The tension over the water allocation that was on the negotiating table since the 1960s ended with no substantial agreement between the riparian countries (Iraq, Turkey and Syria). The objective is to evaluate the impact of the political dimension by creating a conceptual model for the hydropolitical cycle, addressing the importance of the negotiation concepts to reach an agreement; the research also aims to develop a strategy that might support the transformation from conflict to collaboration. The approaches of situation map and systems thinking have been implemented to build the model. The tools of negotiation skills have been adopted to assist the water conflict. The results describe the challenges within different levels and demonstrating the hydropolitical cycle and adding a sustain toolkit to the theory of water conflict and transformation management. Moreover, the paper produces the structure and workflow of establishing the Global Water Security Council. Full article