Search Results (56)

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, climate moisture index (CMI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 2011–2100 using the superior modelling skill of seven regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). These projections show an average 6 °C annual temperature increase for 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5 relative to 1971–2000. Resulting increases in evapotranspiration may be partially offset by an average 0.3 mm/day annual precipitation increase. The projected precipitation increases are in the winter, spring, and autumn, with declines in summer. CORDEX RCMs project a slight increase (0.04 mm/day) in annual averaged runoff, with a shift to an earlier springtime melt pulse. However, these are countered by projected declines in summer and early autumn runoff. There will be significant decreases in annual and summertime CMI and annual SPEI. We conclude that there will be increasingly stressed ARB water availability, particularly in summer, doubtless resulting in repercussions on ARB industrial activities with their extensive water allocations and withdrawals. Full article

As the global shift toward renewable energy accelerates, large-scale energy storage is essential to balance intermittent supply and growing demand. While conventional Pumped Hydro Storage remains dominant, Underground Pumped Hydro Storage (UPHS) offers a promising alternative, particularly in flat regions with ample subsurface space. Southern Ontario, Canada, underlain by thick salt formations and a history of salt mining, presents favorable conditions for UPHS development, yet relative studies remain limited. This work presents the first UPHS-specific geomechanical feasibility assessment in the Canadian Salina Group, introducing a paired-cavern layout tied to Units B and A2 and explicitly capturing both elasto-plastic and creep behavior. Using COMSOL Multiphysics 6.3, a three-dimensional numerical model was developed featuring two vertically separated cylindrical caverns located in Unit B and the lower part of Unit A2. A 24 h operating cycle was simulated over a 10-year period, incorporating elasto-plastic deformation and salt creep. Minimum working pressures were varied to evaluate long-term cavern stability. The results show that a minimum pressure of 0.3 σ_v balances structural integrity and operational efficiency, with creep strain and volumetric convergence remaining within engineering limits. Beyond previous salt-cavern studies focused on hydrogen or CAES, this study provides the first coupled elasto-plastic and creep simulation tailored to UPHS operations in bedded salt, establishing a safe operating-pressure guideline and offering site-relevant design insights for modular underground energy storage systems in sedimentary basins. Full article

Variability in the Laptev Sea–East Siberian Sea circulation system modulates freshwater circulation in the Arctic Ocean, yet details of these wind-driven mechanisms remain poorly understood. Based on in situ observations from the 2018 Sino-Russian joint Arctic expedition, this study investigates the modulatory influence of wind on circulation structures and freshwater transport in the study area and examines the long-term variation characteristics of this circulation and its inherent connection with the Arctic wind. In situ measurements confirm two freshwater transport pathways: a coastal-current route and a geostrophic slope-current route. As the Beaufort High moves toward the Canadian Basin, it shifts wind patterns from anticyclonic to cyclonic, which regulates the transport of shelf water by influencing the prevailing wind direction. Furthermore, our analysis identifies two main modes of long-term changes in summer surface circulation: the first mode characterizes the coastal-current architecture, while the second mode delineates slope-current configurations. Crucially, large-scale modes of the Arctic wind play an important role in regulating circulation. Its first mode corresponds to the summer anticyclonic circulation pattern of the Arctic Ocean Oscillation, which drives the eastward strengthening of the coastal current, while the third mode presents a mechanism similar to the Arctic Dipole, which promotes the development of the slope current by enhancing the convergence of the polar current and wind. This has led to the long-term strengthening of the slope current. Full article

The Sverdrup Basin, Arctic Canada, is ideally situated to contain an archive of tectono-magmatic and climatic events that occurred within the wider Arctic region, including the exhumation of the adjacent (northeastern) part of the Canadian-Greenlandic Shield. To test this, a multi-analytical provenance study of Middle Jurassic to Cretaceous sandstones from the eastern Sverdrup Basin was undertaken. Most of the samples analysed were recycled from sedimentary rocks of the Franklinian Basin, with possible additional contributions from the Mesoproterozoic Bylot basins and metasedimentary shield rocks. The amount of high-grade metamorphic detritus in samples from central Ellesmere Island increased from Middle Jurassic times. This is interpreted to reflect exhumation of the area to the southeast/east of the Sverdrup Basin. Exhumation may have its origins in Middle Jurassic extension and uplift along the northwest Sverdrup Basin margin. Rift-flank uplift along the Canadian–West Greenland conjugate margin and lithospheric doming linked with the proximity of the Iceland hotspot and/or the emplacement of the Cretaceous High Arctic Large Igneous Province may have contributed to exhumation subsequently. The southeast-to-northwest thickening of Jurassic to Early Cretaceous strata across the Sverdrup Basin may be a distal effect of exhumation rather than rifting in the Sverdrup or Amerasia basins. Full article

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas with a significant impact on short- and medium-term climate forcing, and its atmospheric concentration has been increasing rapidly in recent decades. This study aims to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric methane concentrations between 2019 and 2025, focusing on comparisons between regions characterized by high and low emission intensities. Level-3 XCH₄ data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite were used, which were aggregated into seasonal and annual composites. High-emission regions, such as the Mekong Delta, Nile Delta, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Central Thailand, Lake Victoria Basin, and Eastern Arkansas, were contrasted with low-emission areas including Patagonia, the Mongolian Steppe, Northern Scandinavia, the Australian Outback, the Sahara Desert, and the Canadian Shield. The results show that high-emission regions exhibit substantially higher seasonal amplitude in XCH₄ concentrations, with an average seasonal variation of approximately 30.00 ppb, compared to 17.39 ppb in low-emission regions. Methane concentrations generally peaked at the end of the year (Q4) and reached their lowest levels during the first half of the year (Q1 or Q2), particularly in agriculturally dominated regions. Principal component and cluster analyses further confirmed a strong spatial differentiation between high- and low-emission regions based on both temporal trends and seasonal behavior. These findings demonstrate the potential of satellite remote sensing to monitor regional methane dynamics and highlight the need for targeted mitigation strategies in major agricultural and wetland zones. Full article

This paper applied the fuzzy function approach, combined with the ridge regression model, to produce daily rainfall projections from large-scale climate variables. This study developed a statistical downscaling model based on principal components, c-means fuzzy clustering, Volterra series, and ridge regression. The model is known, hereafter as SDC²R². In the developed downscaling model, the use of ridge regression, instead of multiple linear regression, is proposed to downscale daily rainfall with wide range (WR) predictors. The WR predictors were applied to sufficiently incorporate climate change signals. The developed model also captured the non-linear interactions of the climate variables by applying the transformation of Volterra series realization over WR predictors. This transformation was performed by applying principal components as orthogonal filters. Further, these principal components were clustered by using c-means clustering and non-linear transformations were applied on these membership functions, to improve the prediction ability of the model. The reanalysis of climate data from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was used to develop the model and was validated by using the Global Climate Model (GCM) for four locations in the Manawatu River basin. The developed model was used to obtain future daily rainfall projections from three Representative Concentrative Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) scenarios from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) GCM. The performance of the model was compared with a widely used statistical downscaling model (SDSM). It was observed that the model performed better than SDSM in downscaling rainfall on a daily basis. Every scenario indicated that there is a probability of obtaining high future rainfall frequency. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision-makers since climate change may potentially impact the Manawatu basin. Full article

Despite the elevated heat flow known in the Western part of the South Slave Region (Northwest Territories, Canada), a continuous and equilibrium geothermal gradient was never measured in boreholes below the communities where geothermal energy could be developed. This paper aims to predict the geothermal gradient and assess the Earth’s natural heat flow below the communities of Fort Providence, Kakisa, Hay River, and Enterprise. Temperatures from drill-stem tests and bottom well logs were corrected for drilling disturbance and paleoclimate. The thermal conductivity and heat generation rate of the geological formations were determined from the literature and with new laboratory measurements. Original 1D models were developed to evaluate subsurface temperature through the sedimentary formations based on a thermostratigraphic assessment. The results indicate a geothermal gradient that varies from 44.1 ± 10.6 °C km⁻¹ to 59.1 ± 14.9 °C km⁻¹ and heat flow that varies from 105.5 mW m⁻² to 160.2 mW m⁻² below the communities. These estimates were in agreement with the equilibrium geothermal gradients measured in Cameron Hills, south of the four communities, and were used to verify our predictions. The highest geothermal gradient (59.1 ± 14.9 °C km⁻¹) was estimated at Hay River, which, therefore, has the most favorable geological conditions for geothermal development. Full article

In this paper, based on high-resolution satellite images near an ice bridge in the Canadian Basin, we extracted floe size parameters and analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the parameters through image processing techniques. The floe area shows a decreasing trend over time, while the perimeter and mean clamped diameter (MCD) exhibit no obvious pattern of change. In addition, the roundness of floes, reflected by shape parameters, generally decreases initially and then increases, and the average roundness of small floes is smaller than that of large floes. To correct the deviations from power law behaviour when assessing the floe size distribution (FSD) with the traditional power law function, the upper-truncated power law distribution function and the Weibull function are selected. The four parameters of the two functions are important parameters for describing the floe size distribution, and $L_r$ and $L_0$ are roughly equal to the maximum calliper diameter and the average calliper diameter of the floes in the region. $D$ in the upper-truncated power law distribution function represents the fractal dimension of the floes, and $r$ in the Weibull function represents the shape parameter of the floes, both of which increase and then decrease with time. In this paper, we investigate the response of the rate of change in the FSD parameter to the differences in the monthly average temperature and find that $D$, $r$ and air temperature are positively correlated, which verifies the influence of air temperature on the floe size distribution. Full article

The marine environment of the Arctic Ocean has changed rapidly in recent decades. We used reanalysis data and observational data to explore the variations in the upper ocean heat content (OHC) of the Canadian Basin (CB) and the variations in the temperature profiles of the Southern Canadian Basin (SCB). Both the reanalysis data and observational data show increasing trends for the OHC of the CB from 1993 to 2023. Compared to the World Ocean Atlas data (WOA 18/23), the reanalysis data (ORAS5 or GLORYS12V1) significantly underestimated the values of the upper OHC of the Canadian Basin. To explain the OHC differences, the Ice-Tethered Profiler (ITP) observational data were used to analyze the variations in the vertical temperature profiles. We found that the reanalysis data remarkably underestimated the maximum temperatures of the subsurface Pacific warm water and its increasing trend. Based on the short-term prediction results from the Bi-LSTM neural network, we forecasted that the upper OHC will continue to increase in the SCB, mainly due to the warming of the intermediate Atlantic warm water. The research results provide a valuable reference for assessing and improving climate-coupled models. Full article

Surface waters, particularly rivers, are paramount in serving as the primary global water source and a pivotal economic driver. Various pollution sources can negatively impact water quality. The Water Framework Directive has established regulations that define specific chemical and ecological statuses for rivers. Consequently, there is an ongoing commitment to monitor their quality closely. This study involved the collection of samples from two watersheds (Laspias and Lissos) within the Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Region. The two rivers flow along regions characterized by notable environmental stressors, including WWTP, landfills, industrial zones, and agricultural areas, which also constitute substantial contributors to the local economy. This study’s outcomes, covering from springs to coast, are presented and analyzed using various indices, including the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment Water Quality Index (CCME-WQI), discriminate analysis, and the trophic status index (TRIX). Water quality assessment included the measurement of physicochemical parameters, common pollutants, and major ions. The analysis revealed “bad” water quality status along most of the Laspias and in specific sectors of the Lissos, with parameters exceeding the thresholds set by legislation. The rivers demonstrated significant organic and nutrient pollution. Given that water quality in these rivers is significantly influenced by urban, agricultural, and industrial runoff, the imperative need for change necessitates interventions to improve water quality. Observations and measurements are fundamental prerequisites for raising awareness among citizens and stakeholders and for finding effective management measures for the two river basins. Full article

To detect the degradation of clean water, it is necessary to characterize its quality through water quality indices using seasonal water sampling and analysis. In the present study, the initialization of the monitoring by surface and dam water sampling was conducted in multiple areas of Greece, including the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf, Mouriki, and Marathonas basins, during both the dry and wet periods of 2022. The dam reservoirs were also monitored by capturing their orthomosaic mapping. The classification of the samples according to the Canadian Council of Ministers of Environment Water Quality Index (CCME WQI) showed that all dam water samples examined and Mouriki area samples have excellent water quality in terms of physical and chemical characteristics. However, some samples from the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf and Marathonas basins suffer from seawater intrusion, which is indicated by the high concentration levels of Na⁺ and Cl⁻, and anthropogenic activities shown by the elevated concentrations of NO₃⁻. Moreover, the high concentration of As in samples from the Eastern Thermaikos Gulf is attributed to geothermal fluids. The importance of Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, and As presence in water quality at the studied areas is also verified by the sensitivity analysis performed, pointing out the requirement of sustainable management. Full article

The Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) of central Canada plays a crucial role in the Canadian Prairies. Yet, climate change and human action constitute a real threat to its hydrological processes. This study aims to evaluate and analyze groundwater spatial and temporal dynamics in the SRB. Groundwater information was derived and compared using two different approaches: (1) a mathematical modeling framework coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Modular hydrologic model (MODFLOW) and (2) gravimetric satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its follow-on (GRACE-FO). Both methods show generalized groundwater depletion in the SRB that can reach −1 m during the study period (2002–2019). Maximum depletion appeared especially after 2011. The water balance simulated by SWAT-MODFLOW showed that SRB could be compartmented roughly into three main zones. The mountainous area in the extreme west of the basin is the first zone, which is the most dynamic zone in terms of recharge, reaching +0.5 m. The second zone is the central area, where agricultural and industrial activities predominate, as well as potable water supplies. This zone is the least rechargeable and most intensively exploited area, with depletion ranging from +0.2 to −0.4 m during the 2002 to 2011 period and up to −1 m from 2011 to 2019. Finally, the third zone is the northern area that is dominated by boreal forest. Here, exploitation is average, but the soil does not demonstrate significant storage power. Briefly, the main contribution of this research is the quantification of groundwater depletion in the large basin of the SRB using two different methods: process-oriented and satellite-oriented methods. The next step of this research work will focus on the development of artificial intelligence approaches to estimate groundwater depletion from a combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO and a set of multisource remote sensing data. Full article

In the context of global warming, the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship has been widely used as an indicator of the evolution of the precipitation regime, including daily and sub-daily extremes. This study aims to verify the existence of links between precipitation extremes and 2 m air temperature for the Ottawa River Basin (ORB, Canada) over the period 1981–2010, applying an exponential relationship between the 99th percentile of precipitation and temperature characteristics. Three simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5), at three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.11°), one simulation using the recent CRCM version 6 (CRCM6) at “convection-permitting” resolution (2.5 km), and two reanalysis products (ERA5 and ERA5-Land) were used to investigate the CC scaling hypothesis that precipitation increases at the same rate as the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity (i.e., 6.8%/°C). In general, daily precipitation follows a lower rate of change than the CC scaling with median values between 2 and 4%/°C for the ORB and with a level of statistical significance of 5%, while hourly precipitation increases faster with temperature, between 4 and 7%/°C. In the latter case, rates of change greater than the CC scaling were even up to 10.2%/°C for the simulation at 0.11°. A hook shape is observed in summer for CRCM5 simulations, near the 20–25 °C temperature threshold, where the 99th percentile of precipitation decreases with temperature, especially at higher resolution with the CRCM6 data. Beyond the threshold of 20 °C, it appears that the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity is not the only determining factor for generating precipitation extremes. Other factors need to be considered, such as the moisture availability at the time of the precipitation event, and the presence of dynamical mechanisms that increase, for example, upward vertical motion. As mentioned in previous studies, the applicability of the CC scaling should not be generalised in the study of precipitation extremes. The time and spatial scales and season are also dependent factors that must be taken into account. In fact, the evolution of precipitation extremes and temperature relationships should be identified and evaluated with very high spatial resolution simulations, knowing that local temperature and regional physiographic features play a major role in the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes. As precipitation extremes have important effects on the occurrence of floods with potential deleterious damages, further research needs to explore the sensitivity of projections to resolution with various air temperature and humidity thresholds, especially at the sub-daily scale, as these precipitation types seem to increase faster with temperature than with daily-scale values. This will help to develop decision-making and adaptation strategies based on improved physical knowledge or approaches and not on a single assumption based on CC scaling. Full article

Weathering of soil minerals provides base cations that buffer against acidity, and nutrients that support plant growth. In general, direct observations of soil minerals are rare; however, their abundance can be determined indirectly through soil geochemistry using normative-calculation procedures. This study compiled a data set of major oxide content from published and archived soil geochemical observations for 1170 sites across Canada (averaged over the soil profile [A, B, and C horizons], weighted by depth and bulk density to a maximum depth of 50 cm). Quantitative soil mineralogy (wt%) was systematically determined at each site using the normative method, ‘Analysis to Mineralogy’ (A2M); the efficacy of the approach was evaluated by comparison to X-ray Diffraction (XRD) mineralogy available for a subset of the study sites. At these sites, predicted A2M mineralogy was significantly related to estimated XRD, showing a strong linear relationship for plagioclase, quartz, and K-feldspar, and a moderate linear relationship for chlorite and muscovite. Further, the predicted A2M plagioclase content was almost identical to the estimated XRD soil mineralogy, showing no statistical difference. The Canada-wide predicted quantitative soil mineralogy was consistent with the underlying bedrock geology, such as in north-western Saskatchewan and north-eastern Alberta, which had high amounts of quartz due to the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Other soil minerals (plagioclase, potassium feldspar, chlorite, and muscovite) varied greatly in response to changing bedrock geology across Canada. Normative approaches, such as A2M, provide a reliable approach for national-scale determination of quantitative soil mineralogy, which is essential for the assessment of soil weathering rates. Full article

Hydrosystems in the Saskatchewan River Basin of the Canadian Prairies are subject to natural and socioeconomic pressures. Increasingly, these strong pressures are exacerbating problems of water resource accessibility and depletion. Unfortunately, the geometric heterogeneity of the aquifers and the presence of lithologically varied layers complicate groundwater flow studies, hydrodynamic characterization, and aquifer storativity calculations. Moreover, in recent hydrogeological studies, hydraulic conductivity has been the subject of much more research than storativity. It is in this context that the present research was conducted, to establish a 3D hydrostratigraphic model that highlights the geological (lithology, thickness, and depth) and hydrodynamic characteristics of the aquifer formations and proposes a new uncertainty framework for groundwater storage estimation. The general methodology is based on collecting and processing a very fragmentary and diverse multi-source database to develop the conceptual model. Data were harmonized and entered into a common database management system. A large quantity of geological information has been implemented in a 3D hydrostratigraphic model to establish the finest geometry of the SRB aquifers. Then, the different sources of uncertainty were controlled and considered in the modeling process by developing a randomized modeling system based on spatial random bagging simulation (SRBS). The results of the research show the following: Firstly, the distribution of aquifer levels is controlled by tectonic activity and erosion, which further suggests that most buried valleys on the Prairies have filled over time, likely during multiple glaciations in several depositional environments. Secondly, the geostatistical study allowed us to choose optimal interpolation variographic parameters. Finally, the final storativity maps of the different aquifer formations showed a huge potential of groundwater in SRB. The SRBS method allowed us to calculate the optimal storativity values for each mesh and to obtain a final storativity map for each formation. For example, for the Paskapoo Formation, the distribution grid of groundwater storage shows that the east part of the aquifer can store up to 5920 × 10³ m³/voxel, whereas most areas of the west aquifer part can only store less than 750 × 10³ m³/voxel. The maximum storativity was attributed to the Horseshoe Canyon Formation, which contains maximal geological reserves ranging from 107 to 111 × 10⁹ m³. The main contribution of this research is the proposed 3D geological model with hydrogeological insights into the study area, as well as the use of a new statistical method to propagate the uncertainty over the modeling domain. The next step will focus on the hydrodynamic modeling of groundwater flow to better manage water resources in the Saskatchewan River Basin. Full article