Search Results (94)

With the expansion of offshore and subsea infrastructure in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, concerns are rising, driven by climate change and global warming, over the risk of drifting icebergs colliding with these structures in cold waters. Traditional methods for estimating iceberg underwater height and assessing subgouge soil properties, such as costly and time-consuming underwater surveys or centrifuge tests, are still used, but the industry continues to seek faster and more cost-efficient solutions. In this study, the extra tree regression (ETR) algorithm was employed for the first time to simultaneously model iceberg drafts and subgouge soil properties in both sandy and clay seabeds. The ETR approach first predicted the iceberg draft, then simulated subgouge soil reaction forces and deformations. A total of 22 ETR models were developed, incorporating parameters relevant to both iceberg draft estimation and subgouge soil characterization. The best-performing ETR models, along with the most influential input variables, were identified through a combination of sensitivity, error, discrepancy, and uncertainty analyses. The ETR model predicted iceberg draft with a high level of accuracy (R = 0.920, RMSE = 1.081), while the superior model for vertical reaction force in sand achieved an RMSE of 43.95 with 70% of predictions within 16% error. The methodology demonstrated improved prediction capacity over traditional techniques and can serve early-stage iceberg risk management. Full article

The future of marine sustainability depends on public understanding and trust in the policy recommendations that emerge from scientific research. For common pool marine resource decisions made by the people who depend on these resources for their food, employment, and economic future, understanding the current status of these marine systems and change is essential to ensure these resources will persist into the future. As such, the informal learning infrastructure is essential to increasing marine science literacy in a changing world. This mixed-methods research study analyzed the distribution and accessibility of marine science education and research across Alaska’s five geographic regions. Using the PRISMA framework, we synthesized data from 198 institutions and analyzed peer-reviewed literature on marine ecosystems to identify geographic and thematic gaps in access to informal science learning and research focus. In parallel, we undertook geospatial analysis and resource availability to describe the distribution of resources, types of informal learning infrastructure present across the state, regional presence, and resources to support informal marine science learning opportunities. Findings from this multifactor research revealed a concentration of resources in urban hubs and a lack of consistent access to learning resources for rural and Indigenous communities. The configurative literature review of 9549 publications identified topical underrepresentation of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, as well as a lack of research on seabirds across all regions. Considered together, these results recommend targeted investments in rural engagement with marine science programming, culturally grounded partnerships, and research diversification. This review concludes that disparities in learning resource support and government-funded priorities in marine wildlife research have created conditions that undermine the local people’s participation in the sustainability of sensitive resources and are likely exacerbating declines driven by rapid change in Arctic and sub-Arctic waters. Full article

Tropical peatlands store approximately 105 gigatons of carbon (GtC), serving as vital long-term carbon sinks, yet remain critically underrepresented in climate policy. Indonesia peatlands contain 57GtC—the largest tropical peatland carbon stock in the Asia–Pacific. However, decades of drainage, fires, and lax enforcement practices have degraded vast peatland areas, turning them from carbon sinks into emission sources—as evidenced by the 1997 and 2015 peatland fires which emitted 2.57 Gt CO₂eq and 1.75 Gt CO₂eq, respectively. Using system theory validated against historical data (1997–2023), we develop a causal loop model revealing three interconnected feedback loops driving irreversible collapse: (1) drainage–desiccation–oxidation, where water table below −40 cm triggers peat oxidation (2–5 cm subsistence) and fires; (2) fire–climate–permafrost, wherein emissions intensify radiative forcing, destabilizing monsoons and accelerating Arctic permafrost thaw (+15% since 2000); and (2) economy–governance failure, perpetuated by palm oil’s economic dominance and slack regulatory oversight. To break these vicious cycles, we propose a precautionary framework featuring IoT-enforced water table (≤40 cm), reducing emissions by 34%, legally protected “Global Climate Stabilization Zones” for peat domes (>3 m depth), safeguarding 57 GtC, and ASEAN transboundary enforcement funded by a 1–3% palm oil levy. Without intervention, annual emissions may reach 2.869 GtCO₂e by 2030 (Nationally Determined Contribution’s business-as-usual scenario). Conversely, rewetting 590 km²/year aligns with Indonesia’s FOLU Net Sink 2030 target (−140 Mt CO₂e) and mitigates 1.4–1.6 MtCO₂ annually. We conclude that integrating peatlands as irreplaceable climate infrastructure into global policy is essential for achieving Paris Agreement goals and SDGs 13–15. Full article

The Arctic is the fastest-warming region on Earth, exhibiting a pronounced “amplifying effect”, which has triggered widespread permafrost thaw and increased the risk of surface deformation. In the Arctic coastal lowlands, permafrost is also affected by shoreline retreat. The impact of these dual stressors on surface deformation processes in the Arctic coastal lowlands remains poorly understood, particularly in terms of how permafrost thaw and shoreline retreat interact to influence surface stability. To address this gap, we employed PS-InSAR technology to monitor surface deformation from 2017 to 2021 at Tiksi Airport, the northernmost airport on the Siberian mainland, situated adjacent to the Laptev Sea. The results show that Tiksi Airport experiences localized significant surface subsidence, with deformation velocity ranging from −42 to 39 mm/yr. The near-coastal area of Tiksi Airport is strongly influenced by the ocean. Specifically, for extreme subsidence deformation (around –40 mm/yr), the surface subsidence velocity increases by 0.2 mm/yr for every 100 m closer to the coastline. Analysis of these deformation characteristics suggests that the primary causes of subsidence are land surface temperature (LST) warming and erosion by the Laptev Sea, which together lead to increased permafrost thaw. By revealing the combined effects of climate warming and coastal erosion on permafrost stability, this study contributes to enhancing the understanding of infrastructure safety and quality of life for residents in Arctic coastal subsidence areas. Full article

The Arctic is undergoing unprecedented transformations with implications for regional ecosystems, Indigenous communities, and global climate systems. Ocean heat transport, permafrost thawing, and ice–albedo interactions are some of the feedback mechanisms that contribute to the increase in average temperatures in the Arctic. These processes increase the risks associated with climate change globally by speeding up the loss of sea ice, changes in biodiversity, and greenhouse gas emissions. This review synthesises recent advances in Arctic climate science, focusing on the drivers and feedback mechanisms of Arctic amplification, its cascading impacts on ecosystems and socioeconomic systems, and emerging governance challenges. It highlights critical knowledge gaps, specifically regarding the importance of Indigenous knowledge and interdisciplinary approaches in climate adaptation strategies. This study emphasises the need for inclusive, transformative, and collaborative approaches by analysing governance frameworks, climate policies, and community resilience initiatives. Innovative adaptation strategies are suggested, such as ecosystem-based adaptations, climate-resilient infrastructure, and the switch to renewable energy to address these issues. Arctic-specific governance recommendations are proposed to develop sustainable solutions that preserve its ecology while reducing its global effects by filling research gaps and promoting international collaboration. The future of the Arctic is not merely a regional issue but also a global one, requiring swift and coordinated action to address climate challenges. Full article

Understanding lagoon behavior is crucial for both scientific research and engineering decisions, especially in delicate Arctic environments. Lagoons are vital to coastal areas, often bolstering infrastructure resilience. Since spring 2019, we have monitored the Longyearbyen lagoon (Spitsbergen), vital for coastal erosion defense and serving as a natural laboratory. The location’s well-developed infrastructure and accessible logistics make it an ideal testing site available at any time. It can be used for many natural scientific studies. The lagoon continually changes due to the primary action of waves and tides. This article focuses on gravel spit movement, accelerating in recent years to several meters monthly. Using methods of aerial and satellite images, laser scanning, and hydrodynamic measurements, we have delineated processes, rates, and mechanisms behind this movement. The measurements revealed an accelerating eastward movement of the lagoon spit, from 8 m in the first year to 86 m in the fourth year of observation. This can be explained by a combination of the reconstruction of the Longyearbyen riverbed and increased flow because of climate change. Notably, the expansion does not only occur in the summer months: from September 2022 to February 2023, the spit moved by 40 m, and then, by 19 m from February to June 2023. We found that the bed-load transport along the spit coupled with gravel slides are the primary drives of lagoon expansion and growth. We also investigated movements of groundwater in the spit and changes in gravel contents along the spit, influencing the water saturation of the gravel. Modelling these processes aids in forecasting lagoon system development, crucial for informed management and engineering decisions in Arctic coastal regions. Full article

Arctic Alaska is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the nation, severely impacting infrastructure built on permafrost. As winters warm, the effectiveness of thermosyphons used to stabilize foundations diminishes, increasing the risk of infrastructure failure. Because thermosyphons operate with the highest efficiency during winter cold snaps, studying the variation trends and patterns of winter cold snaps in Alaska is particularly important. To address this issue, this study analyzes the historical temperature data of four selected locations in Subarctic and Arctic Alaska, including Bethel, Fairbanks, Nome, and Utqiagvik. The winter cold snap is defined as a period when the average daily temperature drops below a specific site’s mean winter air temperature. The frequency, duration, and intensity of the winter cold snaps are computed to reveal their trends. The results indicate that the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) shows a warming trend, accompanied by sudden warming after 1975 for all study sites. The long-term average monthly air temperature also indicates that the most significant warming occurs in the winter months from December to March. While the frequencies of winter cold snaps remain relatively unchanged, the mean intensity and duration of cold snaps show a declining trend. Most importantly, the most intense cold snap during which the thermosyphons are the most effective is becoming much milder over time for all study sites. This study focuses specifically on the impact of changes in winter cold spells on thermosyphon effectiveness while acknowledging the complexity of other influencing factors, such as temperature differences, design features, coolant properties, and additional climatic parameters (e.g., wind speed, precipitation, and humidity). The data for this study were obtained from the NOAA NCEI website. The findings of this study can serve as a valuable reference for the retrofit or design of foundations and for decision making in selecting appropriate foundation stabilizing measures to ensure the long-term stability and resilience of infrastructure in permafrost regions. Moreover, the insights gained from this research on freeze–thaw dynamics, which are also relevant to black soils, align with the journal’s focus on sustainable soil utilization and infrastructure resilience. Full article

The Arctic presents various challenges for a transition to electric vehicles compared to other regions of the world, including environmental conditions such as colder temperatures, differences in infrastructure, and cultural and economic factors. For this study, academic researchers partnered with three rural communities: Kotzebue, Galena, and Bethel, Alaska, USA. The study followed a co-production process that actively involved community partners to identify 21 typical vehicle use cases that were then empirically modeled to determine changes in fueling costs and greenhouse gas emissions related to a switch from an internal combustion engine to an electric vehicle. While most use cases showed decreases in fueling costs and climate emissions from a transition to electric versions of the vehicles, some common use profiles did not. Specifically, the short distances of typical commutes, when combined with low idling and engine block heater use, led to an increase in both fueling costs and emissions. Arctic communities likely need public investment and additional innovation in incentives, vehicle types, and power systems to fully and equitably participate in the transition to electrified transportation. More research on electric vehicle integration, user behavior, and energy demand at the community level is needed. Full article

The Arctic region is known for its harsh and remote environment. Some of the significant system problems in that region include solving communication issues and building a high-capacity terrestrial infrastructure. This study presents an innovative solution leveraging SWARM Technologies’ low-bandwidth satellite connectivity, Sustainable Distributed Cloud Infrastructure (HIVE) cloud, and devices that are used to develop an automated system for data transfer over any distance without reliance on the Internet. Using this technology, we constructed a solution that integrates SWARM devices with Amazon Web Services (AWS), utilizing an Application Programming Interface (API) for automated notification handling, data storage, and other key functionalities. This paper presented an innovative approach utilizing AWS and the HIVE cloud for easy communication and data transfer between the SWARM device and scientists around the world. This research will help provide a cost-effective method to address the issue of collecting and transferring any type of small data without the Internet in isolated areas like the Arctic region. Full article

Background: Accurate, real-time data about response technologies, capabilities, and availabilities are key to effective emergency response logistics; this is particularly important in remote settings, such as in the Arctic, where limited infrastructure, logistics, and technologies occasion the need for careful planning and immediate response in a fragile, pristine, and rapidly changing ecosystem. Despite persistent calls for improved data quality, processing, and analysis capabilities to support Arctic emergency response logistics, these issues have not been addressed and advanced analytical methods available in other safety-critical and oil and gas settings, such as machine learning, artificial intelligence (AI), or emergent, self-aware, and self-healing databases, have not been widely adopted. Methods: This work explores this research gap by presenting a machine learning algorithm and self-healing database approach, describing its application in Arctic logistics and emergency response. Results: The self-healing algorithm could be applied to other safety-critical databases that could benefit from technology that automatically detects, diagnoses, and repairs data anomalies and inconsistencies, with or without human intervention. Conclusions: The results show significant improvements in data cleaning and analysis, and for emergency response logistics data, planning, and analysis, along with future research and research needs in remote and infrastructure-poor settings. Full article

We explore a new approach for the parsimonious, generalizable, efficient, and potentially automatable characterization of spectral diversity of sparse targets in spectroscopic imagery. The approach focuses on pixels which are not well modeled by linear subpixel mixing of the Substrate, Vegetation and Dark (S, V, and D) endmember spectra which dominate spectral variance for most of Earth’s land surface. We illustrate the approach using AVIRIS-3 imagery of anthropogenic surfaces (primarily hydrocarbon extraction infrastructure) embedded in a background of Arctic tundra near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Computational experiments further explore sensitivity to spatial and spectral resolution. Analysis involves two stages: first, computing the mixture residual of a generalized linear spectral mixture model; and second, nonlinear dimensionality reduction via manifold learning. Anthropogenic targets and lakeshore sediments are successfully isolated from the Arctic tundra background. Dependence on spatial resolution is observed, with substantial degradation of manifold topology as images are blurred from 5 m native ground sampling distance to simulated 30 m ground projected instantaneous field of view of a hypothetical spaceborne sensor. Degrading spectral resolution to mimicking the Sentinel-2A MultiSpectral Imager (MSI) also results in loss of information but is less severe than spatial blurring. These results inform spectroscopic characterization of sparse targets using spectroscopic images of varying spatial and spectral resolution. Full article

Social determinants of health (SDHs) and the impact of colonization can make Canadian Arctic Indigenous communities susceptible to infectious diseases, including the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This scoping review followed the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews and studied what is known about selected pandemics (COVID-19, tuberculosis, and H1N1 influenza) and SDHs (healthcare accessibility, food insecurity, mental health, cultural continuity, housing, community infrastructure, and socioeconomic status (SES)) for Canadian Arctic Indigenous communities. Original studies published in English and French up to October 2024 were located in databases (PubMed, Medline, and CINAHL), AlterNative: An International Journal of Indigenous Peoples, and through reference tracking. We included 118 studies: 6 relating to COVID-19, 5 to influenza, 5 to TB, 27 to food insecurity, 26 to healthcare access, 22 to mental health, 9 to SES, 8 to housing, 7 to cultural continuity, and 3 to community infrastructure. SDHs affecting Indigenous individuals include food insecurity, limited healthcare access, mental health challenges, low SES, suboptimal housing, and limited cultural continuity. These findings are relevant to other Arctic regions. It is crucial to understand how SDHs impact the health of Arctic communities and to utilize this information to inform policy and practice decisions for pandemic prevention, management, and treatment. Many SDHs pose challenges for preventing and managing infectious diseases. Full article

The availability of natural resources drives the exploration and transformation of remote regions in the Arctic and beyond. Extractive infrastructure is one of the major sources of industrial development and environmental impact on landscapes. For Indigenous people, these landscapes are homely environments full of sentient beings, and for other local communities, they provide a wide variety of subsistence and hunting resources. While extractive infrastructure violence is the evident issue for many Indigenous communities, there are more complicated situations where extractive infrastructure is adopted and utilized for the subsistence and support of other human and more-than-human relations in local and Indigenous communities. Based on materials from interviews and observations with Evenki communities in Eastern Siberia in 2013–2021, the authors discuss the complex relations and sustainability issues entangled around infrastructure objects’ creation, use, maintenance, and transformations. The results demonstrate a wide variety of relations between obshchinas (non-governmental organizations of Indigenous peoples) and extractive companies constructed with infrastructure development of the latter. The paper discusses the shortcomings of the top-down approach in infrastructure planning and the need for contextualization and meaningful engagement with affected communities, some examples of which have already taken place in specific locales. The study concludes by calling for the support of environmentally and socially just infrastructure defined by Indigenous people and local communities as a way to increase sustainability. Full article

The Arctic region, including vast shelf zones, has enormous resource and transport potential and is currently key to Russia’s strategic development. This region is promising and attractive for the intensification of global economic activity. When developing this region, it is very important to avoid emergency situations that could result in numerous negative environmental and socio-economic consequences. Therefore, when designing and constructing critical infrastructure facilities in the Arctic, it is necessary to conduct high-quality studies of potential geohazards. This paper reviews and summarizes the scattered information on the main geohazards in the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean, such as earthquakes, underwater landslides, tsunamis, and focused fluid discharges (gas seeps), and discusses patterns of their spatial distribution and possible relationships with the geodynamic setting of the Arctic region. The study revealed that the main patterns of the mutual distribution of the main geohazards of the Russian sector of the Arctic seas are determined by both the modern geodynamic situation in the region and the history of the geodynamic evolution of the Arctic, namely the formation of the spreading axis and deep-sea basins of the Arctic Ocean. The high probability of the influence of seismotectonic activity on the state of subsea permafrost and massive methane release is emphasized. This review contributes toward better understanding and progress in the zoning of seismic and other geological hazards in the vast Arctic seas of Russia. Full article

Amidst the backdrop of growing great power competition, heightened United States presence via military bases has manifested in the Arctic. However, the then design and implementation have hampered the resilience of these bases in a region warming at nearly four times the rate of the rest of the globe. Two-thirds of the United States’ 79 military bases in the Arctic remain underprepared against permafrost thaw and rising sea levels despite rampant calls for sustainable strategies. Damages emanating from climate-related failures will continue to cost the U.S. billions of dollars and render crucial infrastructure unusable. The objective of this study is to present a comprehensive literature review of the extent of Arctic warming and its significance for U.S. bases, the negative implications of military infrastructure deterioration, and methods to adapt both existing and forthcoming bases to a rapidly warming atmosphere. Eighty published papers that directly or indirectly referenced U.S. military bases or climate-oriented engineering in the aforementioned contexts were identified and analyzed over a 20-year period from 2004 to 2024. The literature review concludes that warming concerns were often not taken into much account by civil engineers during initial base construction, an oversight that now jeopardizes runways, docks, and highways. Other nations that have a sizeable footprint in the Arctic Circle, such as Canada and Russia, have demonstrated progress by utilizing pile-driven substructures, thawing permafrost before construction, and ventilated crawlspaces. Alternative solutions, such as cooling permafrost via thermosiphons or refrigeration systems, employing spatially oriented foundations composed of specific materials, and preventative measures such as floodwalls and revetments, have also shown considerable promise in simulations and practice. A table illustrating a holistic literature summary of sustainable strategies to current conditions and climate change at U.S. Military Bases in the Arctic region is also developed. Modeling successful engineering concepts and incorporating existing innovations into military infrastructure should be at the forefront of the United States’ sustainable policy. Full article