Search Results (1,058)

With increasing energy demands and environmental pressures, hydropower, as a clean and renewable energy source, has attracted widespread attention for its development and utilization. However, hydropower systems are highly sensitive to climate change, significantly impacting generation, management, and safety. This study addresses the stability of hydropower resources in the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan, using digital analysis, snowmelt runoff simulation, and soil erosion assessment to estimate spatial distribution. Under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), hydropower trends were simulated, and soil erosion was quantified. Results show annual hydropower potentials: Garm (55.465 billion kWh/a), Rogun (112.737 billion kWh/a), Nurex (78.853 billion kWh/a). Across all scenarios, runoff and hydropower generation increase (162–328,108 kWh/a), with growth rates following RCP4.5 < RCP2.6 < RCP8.5. Soil erosion simulation results indicate that a one millimeter increase in precipitation could lead to sediment deposition of 1.57 × 10⁶ kWh/year in upstream reservoirs. These results demonstrate that climate change has a significant impact on hydropower development in the Vakhsh River Basin. The research provides technical support for hydropower development under climate change. Full article

This study aims (1) to study the trend and characteristics of monthly air temperature, monthly rainfall, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in Thailand over the mid-21st century (2022–2060) period, and (2) to create a climate pattern map using the New Thornthwaite Climate Classification in Thailand over the same period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using CSIRO-Mk3 in the CMIP5 dataset with Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) statistical downscaling. Spatial analyses of temperature and PET reveal significant warming trends, with temperatures rising by approximately 0.033 °C/year and PET rising by about 10 mm/year, especially in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region due to the urban heat island effect, with temperature values under RCP8.5 remaining consistently higher than those under RCP4.5. Rainfall projections show relatively stable spatial patterns across both scenarios, with higher concentrations along the Andaman coast, the eastern peninsula, and northeastern Thailand; these are areas influenced by the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones. Central Thailand, however, exhibits persistently low rainfall, likely due to rain-shadow effects. PET patterns mirror early 21st-century observations, with the highest values projected in central Thailand and increasing trends under both scenarios, suggesting heightened drought risks. By 2060, The New Thornthwaite Climate Classification indicates that Moist climate zones are projected to disappear nationwide, with Semi-arid and Dry climates dominating under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Annual mean temperature will rise by 0.033 °C/year and PET by ~10 mm/year, while rainfall trends remain nearly stable. The classification’s reliance on minimal parameters—temperature, precipitation, and PET—provides a practical tool for climate monitoring and policy development. Full article

Aircraft emissions are a growing environmental concern due to their contribution to local air pollution and potential health risks, particularly around rapidly expanding airports. In Egypt, rapid urban growth and tourism have driven the construction of new airports, underscoring the need to assess their environmental impacts, particularly those related to aircraft emissions in the surrounding areas. Few studies have assessed aircraft emissions across multiple Egyptian airports, particularly under future capacity and climate scenarios, using dispersion models. This study evaluates the environmental impact of aircraft emissions at four Egyptian airports using the Graz Lagrangian Dispersion Model (GRAL). The analysis accounts for projected increases in airport capacity through 2030 and 2035 and examines how climate change may influence pollutant dispersion. Emissions from 2021 served as a baseline, while future meteorological conditions were simulated with the RegCM4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 scenario. Results show that maximum daily average carbon monoxide concentrations at Administrative Capital Airport increased from ~24.5 µg/m³ in 2021 to ~100.3 µg/m³ in 2035, while nitrogen dioxide concentrations at El-Meliz Airport rose from ~20.3 to ~47.6 µg/m³. Similar upward trends were observed for sulfur dioxide and particulate matter (PM₁₀), although all simulated values remained below the thresholds established by Egyptian Environmental Law. These findings highlight that continued growth in aviation activity, even without breaching national standards, may contribute to long-term health risks for nearby communities. Full article

Mountain catchments in Central Europe are highly susceptible to flash floods. To inform local adaptation, this study quantifies the future flood response of a Polish Carpathian catchment (Upper Skawa, 240.4 km²) to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. A semi-distributed HEC-HMS model was calibrated and validated using observed flood events (2014–2019). Future hydrographs were then simulated using the delta change method for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (near- and long-term horizons). The validated model showed high predictive accuracy. Results indicate a consistent trend towards a polarized hydrological regime, with increased spring/autumn flood peaks and decreased summer flows. This trend is significantly amplified under the RCP8.5 scenario, with long-term peak flood increases approximately double those of RCP4.5. The catchment’s non-linear response further compounds these impacts. These findings suggest a future of heightened seasonal flood risk and emerging summer water scarcity, implying that existing infrastructure, designed for historical stationarity, may be insufficient. This study provides a quantitative evidence base for re-evaluating regional flood risk policies and developing integrated adaptation strategies. Full article

Global climate change is expected to alter characteristics of flood events. This study evaluates the rising flood risk and damage potential in the lower Vipava River valley—a transboundary catchment between Slovenia and Italy—under climate scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The area has experienced multiple floods in recent decades, indicating high vulnerability. Using hydraulic modeling for current and future conditions, flood hazard zones were identified and integrated into the KRPAN model to estimate expected annual damage (EAD). The findings show that EAD escalates from €0.97 million under current conditions to €1.97 million under the most extreme scenario. A 20% rise in flood peaks leads to a 1.4-fold increase in damage, while a 40% rise results in losses that are more than double. Buildings show a 2.5-fold increase in EAD, and water infrastructure EAD rises by a factor of 1.9. These results underscore the substantial economic consequences of climate change on flood risk. The study highlights the urgent need to incorporate climate scenarios into flood risk assessments and spatial planning to support adaptive strategies and reduce future damage. These insights are essential for making informed decisions and achieving long-term resilience. Full article

Alexandrium spp., globally recognized as harmful algal bloom (HAB) species, pose severe threats to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and public health. Based on 469 occurrence records and 24 marine environmental variables, this study employed the Biomod2 ensemble modeling framework to predict the potential distribution of Alexandrium spp. under current and future climate scenarios, and to assess the role of key environmental factors and the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat centroid shifts. The results revealed that (1) the ensemble model outperformed single models (AUC = 0.998, TSS = 0.977, Kappa = 0.978), providing higher robustness and reliability in prediction; (2) salinity range (bio18, 19.1%) and mean salinity (bio16, 5.8%) were the dominant factors, while minimum temperature (bio23) also showed strong constraints, indicating that salinity determines “whether persistence is possible,” while temperature influences “whether blooms occur”; (3) under present conditions, high-suitability habitats are concentrated in Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River estuary to the Fujian coast, and parts of Guangdong; (4) climate change is predicted to drive a southward shift of suitable habitats, with the most pronounced expansion under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), leading to the emergence of new high-risk areas in the South China coast and adjacent South China Sea; (5) centroid analysis further indicated a pronounced southward migration under RCP8.5 by 2100, highlighting a regional reconfiguration of ecological risks. Collectively, salinity and temperature are identified as the core drivers shaping the ecological niche of Alexandrium spp., and future warming is likely to exacerbate HAB risks in southern China. This study delineates key prevention regions and proposes a shift from reactive to proactive management strategies, providing scientific support for HAB monitoring and marine ecological security in China’s coastal waters. Full article

The Watershed Sustainability Index (WSI) is a widely used parameter that provides an integrated assessment of the baseline state of watershed management, considering hydrology, environment, life, and policy. The impacts of climate change on sustainability are becoming increasingly evident. These impacts are discussed in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study refines the Watershed Sustainability Index (WSI) by embedding climate discontinuities from the IPCC AR6, applying dual climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and incorporating comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The approach provides a transferable basis for basin-scale management tools that integrate climate stressors, explore alternative futures, and support adaptive water governance. The impacts of climate change on watershed sustainability have been developed from hydrological, environmental, life, and policy perspectives with an innovative approach. The new WSI assessment methodology is implemented for the Central North Aegean Basin, Türkiye. The WSI was applied to two periods, including five years of baseline condition (2016–2020) and ten years of projected future condition (2021–2030). The future condition was assessed with climate change impacts. The study shows how WSI assessment under climate change considerations may support coordination among all relevant institutions and stakeholders responsible for natural resource management. This approach can be a valuable resource for decision-makers and provide an effective management tool for the basin, considering future conditions. Full article

As climate variability intensifies, its impacts are increasingly visible through disrupted agricultural systems and rising food insecurity, especially in climate-sensitive regions. This study explores the complex relationships between environmental stressors, such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and soil degradation, with food insecurity outcomes in selected districts of Uttarakhand, India. Using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, this study analyzes 19 stressors affecting the food supply chain and identifies the nine most influential factors. An Environmental Stressor Index (ESI) is constructed, integrating climatic, hydrological, and land-use dimensions. The ESI is applied to three districts—Rudraprayag, Udham Singh Nagar, and Almora—to assess their vulnerability. The results suggest that Rudraprayag faces high exposure to climate extremes (heatwaves, floods, and droughts) but benefits from a relatively stronger infrastructure. Udham Singh Nagar exhibits the highest overall vulnerability, driven by water stress, air pollution, and salinity, whereas Almora remains relatively less exposed, apart from moderate drought and connectivity stress. Simulations based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate increasing stress across all regions, with Udham Singh Nagar consistently identified as the most vulnerable. Rudraprayag experiences increased stress under the RCP 8.5 scenario, while Almora is the least vulnerable, though still at risk from drought and pest outbreaks. By incorporating crop yield models into the ESI framework, this study advances a systems-level tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change. This research holds global relevance, as food supply chains in climate-sensitive regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America face similar compound stressors. Its novelty lies in integrating a Fuzzy DEMATEL-based Environmental Stressor Index with crop yield modeling. The findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed food system planning and policies that integrate environmental and social vulnerabilities. Full article

Rapid climate change has exacerbated global ecosystem degradation, leading to habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity loss. Constructing ecological networks (EN) with resilient conduction functions and conservation priorities is crucial for maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. However, the spatiotemporal modeling and dynamic resilience assessment of EN under the combined impacts of future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes remain underexplored. This study focuses on the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA), China, and integrates landscape ecology with complex network theory to develop a dynamic resilience assessment framework that incorporates multi-scenario LULC projections, multi-temporal EN construction, and node-link disturbance simulations. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios, we quantified spatiotemporal variations in EN resilience and identified resilience-based conservation priority areas. The results show that: (1) Future EN patterns exhibit a westward clustering trend, with expanding habitat areas and enhanced connectivity. (2) From 2000 to 2040, EN resilience remains generally stable, but diverges significantly across scenarios—showing steady increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, while slightly declining under SSP2-4.5. (3) Approximately 20% of nodes and 40% of links are identified as critical components for maintaining structural-functional resilience, and are projected to form conservation priority patterns characterized by larger habitat areas and more compact connectivity under future scenarios. The multi-scenario analysis provides differentiated strategies for EN planning and ecological conservation. This framework offers adaptive and resilient solutions for regional ecosystem management under climate change. Full article

The temperature-based indicators heating and cooling degree days, are frequently utilized to quantitatively link indoor energy demand and outdoor thermal conditions, especially in the context of climate change. We present a comprehensive study of the heating and cooling degree-days and the degree-days categories for the near past (1976–2005), and the AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario-driven future (2066–2095) over Southeast Europe based on an elaborated methodology and performed using a 19 combinations of driving global and regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX with horizontal resolution of 0.11°. Alongside the explicit focus of the degree-days categories and the finer grid resolution, the study benefits substantially from the consideration of the monthly, rather than annual, time scale, which allows the assessment of the intra-annual variations of all analyzed parameters. We provide evidences that the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is capable of simulating the spatiotemporal patterns of the degree-days and degree-day categories for the near past period. Generally, we demonstrate also a steady growth in cooling and a decrease in heating degree-days, where the change of the former is larger in relative terms. Additionally, we show an overall shift toward warmer degree-day categories as well as prolongation of the cooling season and shortening of the heating season. As a whole, the magnitude of the projected long-term changes is significantly stronger for the ’pessimistic’ scenario RCP8.5 than the ’realistic’ scenario RCP4.5. These outcomes are consistent with the well-documented general temperature trend in the gradually warming climate of Southeast Europe. The patterns of the projected long-term changes, however, exhibit essential heterogeneity, both in time and space, as well as among the analyzed parameters. This finding is manifested, in particular, in the coexistence of opposite tendencies for some degree-day categories over neighboring parts of the domain and non-negligible month-to-month variations. Most importantly, the present study unequivocally affirms the significance of the anticipated long-term changes of the considered parameters over Southeast Europe in the RCP scenario-driven future with all subsequent and far-reaching effects on the heating, cooling, and ventilation industry. Full article

With climate change, the Qinghai–Tibet Highway (QTH) is facing increasingly severe risks of natural hazards, posing a significant threat to its normal operation. However, the types, distribution, and future risks of hazards along the QTH are still unclear. In this study, we established an inventory of multi-hazards along the QTH by remote sensing interpretation and field validation, including landslides, debris flows, thaw slumps, and thermokarst lakes. The QTH was segmented into three sections based on hazard distribution and environmental factors. Susceptibility modelling was performed for each hazard within each section using machine learning models, followed by further evaluation of hazard susceptibility under future climate change scenarios. The results show that, at present, approximately 15.50% of the area along the QTH exhibits high susceptibility to multi-hazards, with this proportion projected to increase to 20.85% and 23.32% under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 distant future scenarios, respectively. Variations in hazard-prone environments dominate the spatial heterogeneity of multi-hazard distribution. Gravity hazards demonstrate limited sensitivity to climate change, whereas thermal hazards exhibit a more pronounced response. Our geomorphology-based segmented assessment framework effectively enhances evaluation accuracy and model interpretability. The results can provide critical insights for the operation, maintenance, and hazard risk management of the QTH. Full article

Tourism in Greece is directly influenced by bioclimatic conditions, with thermal comfort being a key determinant of destination suitability. This study quantifies projected changes in outdoor thermal stress across 25 representative Greek tourism locations using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) index. The analysis employs daily outputs from four EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations at ~11 km spatial resolution, covering the period 1970–2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Predominant PET classes were derived for a reference period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2031–2060, 2071–2100) to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of thermal comfort. The results reveal a consistent upward shift toward higher PET classes, indicating intensifying thermal stress. During the baseline, moderate to strong heat stress (29–35 °C) dominated summer months, with cold stress (<8 °C) restricted to northern and high-altitude stations. By mid-century, even under RCP2.6, summer PET values increasingly exceed 35–41 °C, while RCP8.5 simulations show the first occurrence of extreme PET (>41 °C). By late century, RCP2.6 stabilizes heat stress, whereas RCP4.5 exhibits widespread dominance of strong stress classes and elimination of cold stress. Under RCP8.5, July–August are uniformly categorized as extreme (>41 °C) across nearly all stations, and transitional months shift toward high stress, leading to a homogenization of summer conditions. These findings underscore the high sensitivity of Greek tourism destinations to climate change, highlighting both the critical benefits of global emissions mitigation and the urgent need for locally tailored adaptation strategies. Full article

Urban flooding represents a growing concern on a global scale, particularly in regions characterized by rapid urbanization and increased climate variability. This study concentrates on the Rangsit area in Pathum Thani Province, Thailand, an urbanizing peri-urban area north of Bangkok and within the Chao Phraya River Basin where transitions in land use and the intensification of rainfall induced by climate change are elevating flood risks. A physically based hydrodynamic model was developed utilizing PCSWMM to assess current and future flood scenarios that considered future build-out plans and climate change scenarios. The model underwent calibration and validation using a continuous modeling approach that conservatively focused on wet year conditions, based on available rainfall and water level data. In assessing future scenarios, we considered land use projections based on regional development plans and climate projections downscaled under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. Results indicate that both urban expansion and intensifying rainfall are likely to increase flood magnitudes, durations, and impacted areas, although in this rapidly developing peri-urban area, land use change was the most important driver. The findings suggest that a physically based modeling approach could support a smart-control framework that could effectively inform evidence-based urban planning and infrastructure investments. These insights are of paramount importance for flood-prone regions in Thailand and Southeast Asia, where dynamic modeling tools must underpin governance, climate adaptation, and risk communication. Furthermore, given the greater impact of future build-out on flood risk, as compared to climate change, there is an opportunity to effectively and proactively improve flood resilience through the implementation of integrated Nature-based Solution and hard engineering approaches, in combination with effective flood management policy. Full article

Community Earth System Model-Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations are used to partition the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) trends over East Asia into the contribution of external forcing factors and internal variability. In the historical period (1966–2005), the summer SAT trends display a considerable diversity (≤−2 °C to ≥2 °C) across the 35 member ensembles, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the region is mostly dominated by a strong warming trend (~1.5–2.5 °C/51 years) and touches the ~4 °C mark by the end of the 21st century. In the historical period, the warming is prominent over the Yangtze River basin of China, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming pattern shifts northward towards Mongolia. In the historical period, the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) is less than 1, while it is higher than 4 under the RCP8.5 scenario, which indicates that, in the early period, internal variability overrides the forced response and vice versa under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, over much of the East Asian region, the chances of cooling are relatively high in the historical period, which partially counteracted the warming trend due to external forcing factors. In contrast, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the chances of warming reach ~100% over East Asia due to contributions from the external forcing factors. The novel aspect of the current study is that, in the negative phase (from the mid-1960s to ~2000), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) accounts for ~70–80% of the cooling trend or the SAT variability over East Asia, and thereafter, natural variability exhibits a slow increasing trend in the future. However, the contribution of external forcing factors increases from ~55% in 2000 to 95% in 2075 at a rate much faster than natural variability, which is primarily due to increasing downward solar radiation fluxes and albedo feedback on SAT over East Asia. Full article

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, climate moisture index (CMI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 2011–2100 using the superior modelling skill of seven regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). These projections show an average 6 °C annual temperature increase for 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5 relative to 1971–2000. Resulting increases in evapotranspiration may be partially offset by an average 0.3 mm/day annual precipitation increase. The projected precipitation increases are in the winter, spring, and autumn, with declines in summer. CORDEX RCMs project a slight increase (0.04 mm/day) in annual averaged runoff, with a shift to an earlier springtime melt pulse. However, these are countered by projected declines in summer and early autumn runoff. There will be significant decreases in annual and summertime CMI and annual SPEI. We conclude that there will be increasingly stressed ARB water availability, particularly in summer, doubtless resulting in repercussions on ARB industrial activities with their extensive water allocations and withdrawals. Full article