Tropical Monsoon Circulation and Dynamics

Dear Colleagues,

Recent studies on tropical monsoon circulation and dynamics have revealed that there are significant changes in monsoon behavior, particularly in the context of climate change. Previous research has shown a doubling of summer monsoon depressions (MDs) over the North Arabian Sea from 2001 to 2022 compared to the previous two decades. This increase is attributed to alterations in mid-latitude circulation patterns, specifically the Silk Road Pattern, which influences rainfall distribution across northwestern India and the Arabian Sea. Concurrently, research indicates that the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is projected to weaken due to enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which affects low-level westerly winds over the northern tropical Indian Ocean. This weakening trend raises concerns about future precipitation patterns and their implications for water resources in South Asia, where millions of people depend on monsoon rains for agriculture and their livelihoods.

Future studies are essential in order to deepen our understanding of these dynamics and their broader implications. Research should focus on quantifying the impacts of regional aerosol loading on monsoon systems, as increased aerosols may shift monsoons toward drier states, complicating rainfall patterns. Additionally, systematic observational and modeling approaches are needed to assess the interactions between anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in monsoon behavior. Investigating the role of the Tibetan Plateau as a thermal driver in monsoon dynamics will also be crucial, particularly how it influences atmospheric circulation under varying climate scenarios. Addressing these gaps will enhance predictive capabilities regarding monsoon responses to ongoing climate changes and help inform adaptation strategies for vulnerable regions.

Dr. Debashis Nath
Dr. Rizwan Karim
Guest Editors

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