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Atmosphere
Special Issues
Tropical Monsoon Circulation and Dynamics
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Tropical Monsoon Circulation and Dynamics

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 March 2026 | Viewed by 670

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Debashis Nath

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650000, China
Interests: tropical monsoon: stratosphere–troposphere interaction; climate change and climate extremes; physical mechanism; stretched polar vortex; jet meandering flow; Rossby wave propagation and impact on weather extremes
Dr. Rizwan Karim

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG) of the Chinese Academy of Science, Menglun Town, Xishunagbanna Prefecture, China
Interests: CMIP6; climate change and variability; climate change impacts

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Recent studies on tropical monsoon circulation and dynamics have revealed that there are significant changes in monsoon behavior, particularly in the context of climate change. Previous research has shown a doubling of summer monsoon depressions (MDs) over the North Arabian Sea from 2001 to 2022 compared to the previous two decades. This increase is attributed to alterations in mid-latitude circulation patterns, specifically the Silk Road Pattern, which influences rainfall distribution across northwestern India and the Arabian Sea. Concurrently, research indicates that the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is projected to weaken due to enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which affects low-level westerly winds over the northern tropical Indian Ocean. This weakening trend raises concerns about future precipitation patterns and their implications for water resources in South Asia, where millions of people depend on monsoon rains for agriculture and their livelihoods.

Future studies are essential in order to deepen our understanding of these dynamics and their broader implications. Research should focus on quantifying the impacts of regional aerosol loading on monsoon systems, as increased aerosols may shift monsoons toward drier states, complicating rainfall patterns. Additionally, systematic observational and modeling approaches are needed to assess the interactions between anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in monsoon behavior. Investigating the role of the Tibetan Plateau as a thermal driver in monsoon dynamics will also be crucial, particularly how it influences atmospheric circulation under varying climate scenarios. Addressing these gaps will enhance predictive capabilities regarding monsoon responses to ongoing climate changes and help inform adaptation strategies for vulnerable regions.

Dr. Debashis Nath
Dr. Rizwan Karim
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • monsoon
  • tropics
  • circulation
  • natural variability
  • anthropogenic forcings
  • prediction
  • South and East Asia

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

19 pages, 6121 KB  
Article
Natural Variability and External Forcing Factors That Drive Surface Air Temperature Trends over East Asia
by Debashis Nath, Reshmita Nath and Wen Chen
Atmosphere 2025, 16(10), 1113; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16101113 - 23 Sep 2025
Viewed by 148
Abstract
Community Earth System Model-Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations are used to partition the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) trends over East Asia into the contribution of external forcing factors and internal variability. In the historical period (1966–2005), the summer SAT trends display a considerable diversity [...] Read more.
Community Earth System Model-Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations are used to partition the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) trends over East Asia into the contribution of external forcing factors and internal variability. In the historical period (1966–2005), the summer SAT trends display a considerable diversity (≤−2 °C to ≥2 °C) across the 35 member ensembles, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the region is mostly dominated by a strong warming trend (~1.5–2.5 °C/51 years) and touches the ~4 °C mark by the end of the 21st century. In the historical period, the warming is prominent over the Yangtze River basin of China, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming pattern shifts northward towards Mongolia. In the historical period, the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) is less than 1, while it is higher than 4 under the RCP8.5 scenario, which indicates that, in the early period, internal variability overrides the forced response and vice versa under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, over much of the East Asian region, the chances of cooling are relatively high in the historical period, which partially counteracted the warming trend due to external forcing factors. In contrast, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the chances of warming reach ~100% over East Asia due to contributions from the external forcing factors. The novel aspect of the current study is that, in the negative phase (from the mid-1960s to ~2000), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) accounts for ~70–80% of the cooling trend or the SAT variability over East Asia, and thereafter, natural variability exhibits a slow increasing trend in the future. However, the contribution of external forcing factors increases from ~55% in 2000 to 95% in 2075 at a rate much faster than natural variability, which is primarily due to increasing downward solar radiation fluxes and albedo feedback on SAT over East Asia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Monsoon Circulation and Dynamics)
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