Search Results (132)

Economically, all countries seek sustained growth driven by domestic demand, investment, and exports; however, COVID-19 revealed the vulnerability of interconnected economic systems and a sharp contraction in global trade. The objective of this research is to analyze through an econometric model the effect of traditional exports on Peru’s economic growth during the 2012–2023 period. The study employed a quantitative approach with a non-experimental, longitudinal design, using quarterly data from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which were transformed into natural logarithms. Unit root tests, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and a two-stage least squares (2SLS) model were applied to correct for endogeneity. The results show that mining accounts for 81.7% of total traditional exports from Peru. The model indicated that a 1% increase in traditional exports leads to a 0.29% increase in GDP, confirming a positive impact. However, the high dependence of the mining sector exposes the economy to external risks. Therefore, a productive diversification strategy, alongside the modernization of the mining sector, is recommended to strengthen Peru’s economic resilience in the face of global crises and external fluctuations. Full article

This paper analyzes how two major economic downturns—a recession and a stagflation—affected convergence in the European Union (EU). Absolute and conditional convergence rates are estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) semilog regressions based on cross-sectional data from 2004 to 2022. The study tests two hypotheses: there was no absolute convergence in the EU during either the recession or the stagflation period, and conditional convergence occurred during the recession but not during stagflation. The regression results indicate that neither hypothesis can be rejected. External variables—economic openness, inflation, and investment—were more influential during stable periods, whereas internal variables—debt, unemployment, and the control of corruption—had a greater impact during crises. These findings suggest that the EU was more institutionally prepared for the stagflation due to mechanisms developed after the financial crisis, but these tools proved less effective in addressing supply-side shocks. Full article

This study empirically examines whether Brazil’s remarkable economic growth from 2003 to 2010 was primarily driven by Lula’s policies or favorable global economic conditions using the Synthetic Control Method—a robust causal inference technique for assessing policy effects when randomized controlled trials are infeasible and only one treated unit exists. Our analysis suggests that Brazil’s economic performance was largely attributable to external circumstances, while the policies of Lula’s administration may not have significantly enhanced growth. This study demonstrates the robustness of the results through leave-one-out distribution, the ratio of postintervention-period root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) to preintervention-period RMSPE, and in-space placebo tests. Full article

This study develops a multidimensional classification of Latin American and Caribbean countries based on a multidimensional set of economic, social, technological, and environmental indicators. This study develops a multidimensional assessment of the performance of Latin American and Caribbean countries, taking into account the following indicators for the period 2017–2022: education expenditure (% of GDP), health expenditure (% of GDP), GDP per capita (constant USD), CO₂ emissions per capita (metric tons), energy consumption per capita (kWh), internet users (% of population), mobile phone subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants), and the Global Innovation Index (GII). Initially, through the application of principal component analysis (PCA), the objective was to reduce the complexity of the data set and reveal the main structural dimensions. Subsequently, cluster analysis was used to classify countries according to shared development patterns. To achieve this, the average of the indicators for the 2017–2022 period was used as a basis, which enabled the reduction in short-term distortions and the capture of structural trends. The results reveal the existence of distinct groups, with countries with higher levels of digital connectivity, investment in human capital, and economic dynamism experiencing more favorable development conditions. Full article

Many countries worldwide share borders that offer several benefits, such as easier access, faster knowledge transfer, and more efficient trade diplomacy. However, reliance on land-border trade alone has not been consistently shown to increase GDP per capita or vice versa. This study investigates the relationship between trade and GDP per capita by distinguishing trade between land-border countries and non-land-border countries. The analysis applied two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation using data from 87 countries with land borders covering 2010 to 2021. The share of trade to land and non-land borders around the world was dominated by China, Germany, and the United States, with a share of more than 10%. The results revealed a negative relationship between trade with land-border countries and GDP per capita, while trade with non-land-border countries showed a positive effect. To enhance the benefits of land-border trade, improving governance and infrastructure are essential to sustain its impacts in the future. Full article

This research investigates the multiplier effect of ferry transportation development on the medium-term economy of Samosir Island from 2016 to 2022. The study will provide insights into the implications of ferry transportation for the economies of rural or remote regions like Samosir Island. The analysis was conducted by comparing the multiplier effects before and after the development, utilizing the input–output approach, which encompassed the output multiplier, the multiplier on gross value added (GVA), and the household income multiplier. The findings from the input–output analysis indicate that the average output multiplier for 37 industries on Samosir Island has declined by 0.84% annually, with the average output multiplier recorded at 1.80 in 2016, decreasing to 1.71 by 2022. This suggests that, overall, the advancement of ferry transportation in the medium term is comparatively ineffective in promoting economic growth in rural or remote regions such as Samosir Island. Conversely, the average GVA multiplier rose by 1.04% annually. Similarly, the household income multiplier index experienced an increase of 1.91% each year. This indicates that ferry transportation seems to exert a notable influence on both GVA and the household income multiplier, albeit the effect is comparatively modest. Full article

This essay aims to address the existing theoretical gap regarding the in-depth study of institutional change and its relationship with the endogenous development potential of regions. The intersection of these two theoretical approaches offers an understanding of how changes in formal and informal institutions can influence local development, especially when internal resources and local capacities drive this progress. The research was conducted using a bibliographic method and adopts a qualitative approach, seeking an in-depth understanding of the topic. Relevant assumptions about endogenous development were presented and articulated with the institutional change by Douglass North. The contribution of this theoretical approach was to highlight the role of institutional change as a driving force behind regional endogenous development, defining, from the perspective of endogenous development, the institutions that are determinants of the development process of economies. Based on our theoretical construction, we suggest future studies that are concerned with illustrating empirical cases of how formal and informal institutions can promote endogenous development. Full article

Foreign remittances have become a crucial component of the Nepalese economy. This study investigates the impact of remittances on household consumption patterns in rural Nepal using data from the World Bank’s Nepal Household Risk and Vulnerability (NHRV) Survey Panel, covering the period from 2016 to 2018. Employing an instrumental variable regression approach, we estimate the elasticity of remittances to various consumption categories. Our findings indicate that foreign remittances significantly affect total consumption expenditure. Disaggregated results reveal that remittances positively influence spending on food items and non-food categories such as education and healthcare, highlighting their role in enhancing nutrition and human capital development. However, remittances do not contribute to unproductive expenditures like tobacco, alcohol, or rituals. Therefore, other things remaining the same, remittance is enhancing welfare in rural Nepali households. Full article

This study investigates the environmental effects of agricultural trade, renewable energy use, and economic growth in a panel of 14 selected countries for the period 2000–2021. Per capita CO₂ emissions are modeled as the dependent variable using a second-generation panel data method, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The analysis reveals that the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption significantly reduces carbon emissions, emphasizing the role of green energy policies in environmental improvement. In contrast, economic growth is found to increase emissions, indicating the validity of only the initial phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Additionally, agricultural imports—and in certain cases, exports—exert upward pressure on emissions, likely due to logistics and production-related externalities embedded in the trade process. Group-specific results highlight distinct dynamics across countries: while renewable energy adoption plays a stronger role in emission mitigation in developing economies, trade composition and production technology drive environmental outcomes in developed ones. The findings underscore the need to redesign trade and energy strategies with explicit consideration of environmental externalities to align with long-term sustainability objectives. Full article

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between economic indicators, law enforcement mechanisms, and property-related crimes in Mongolia using a time-series econometric approach. Relying on the theoretical frameworks of Becker’s economic model of crime and Cantor and Land’s motivation–opportunity hypothesis, the study explores the effects of unemployment, detection probability, and incarceration rates on four crime categories: total crime, theft, robbery, and fraud. An error correction model (ECM) is employed to capture both short-run fluctuations and long-run equilibrium relationships over the period 1992–2022. The empirical findings reveal that detection rates exert a statistically significant deterrent effect on robbery in the short term, while incarceration rates are effective in reducing theft. Unemployment shows a positive and significant long-run effect on theft prior to 2009 but weakens thereafter due to methodological changes in labor statistics. Fraud demonstrates a distinct response pattern, exhibiting negative associations with both incarceration and unemployment, and showing no sensitivity to detection probability. Diagnostic tests support the model’s robustness, with heteroskedasticity in the theft model addressed using robust standard errors. This study contributes to the literature by providing the first country-specific empirical evidence on crime determinants in Mongolia. It highlights the heterogeneous impact of economic and institutional factors on different crime types in a transition economy. The findings underscore the need for integrated policy responses that combine improvements in law enforcement with inclusive economic and social development strategies. Full article

This study examines the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in South and Southeast Asia from 2006 to 2022, using a comprehensive panel dataset and multiple econometric techniques. The baseline estimation employs Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), with robustness checks using Fixed Effects with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The results consistently show that FDI and Gross Capital Formation (GCF) significantly promote growth, while the Human Capital Index (HCI), Trade Openness (TO), and Inflation (I) have limited or adverse effects. Government spending (GS) is negatively associated with growth, suggesting inefficiencies in public resource allocation. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing absorptive capacity through investments in education, institutional quality, and trade facilitation. Policy recommendations include adopting performance-based budgeting and independent audits, drawing on Malaysia’s anti-corruption and audit reforms. To address the weak impact of human capital, this study advocates for expanding public–private partnerships in technical and vocational education, modelled on Singapore’s SkillsFuture initiative. Additionally, digital investment platforms like Indonesia’s Online Single Submission (OSS) system and infrastructure upgrades are recommended to reduce trade costs and improve the investment climate. Finally, the study calls for deeper regional integration through harmonized investment regulations under the ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) and the development of cross-border special economic zones (SEZs). These recommendations are grounded in empirical evidence and tailored to the region’s structural characteristics, offering actionable insights for policy-makers. Full article

Pakistan is one of the largest recipients of remittances globally and has substantial remittance inflow fluctuations; thus, finding the remittance–gross domestic product (GDP) ratio threshold is expedient. This study examined the macroeconomic impacts of emigrant remittances in Pakistan using a vector autoregressive estimation framework and investigated the threshold of the remittance–GDP ratio that has real effects on the economy in terms of Dutch Disease and capital accumulation. The empirical results showed that, regarding the Dutch Disease effect, a remittance–GDP ratio greater than 6% leads to a decrease in the manufacturing–services ratio, whereas as for the capital accumulation effect, a remittance–GDP ratio greater than 5% leads to a decrease in the investment–consumption ratio. These outcomes suggested that emigrants’ remittance inflows in Pakistan that exceed certain levels relative to the GDP aggravate industrialisation (Dutch Disease effect) and capital accumulation. Full article

This paper examines the electoral cycle and the conduct of the central government’s fiscal policy. It uses a panel database with disaggregated spending and revenue series for 34 middle-income countries over 2000–2022. A dynamic panel approach was used to look at overall government spending and income, and their parts, to find budget patterns during election seasons. The analytical methodology employs the two-step system generalized method of moments to address endogeneity concerns. The dynamic effect captured by the first lag of budgetary indicators suggests that the widening of that indicator is persistent. There is evidence that the current government is opportunistic, which suggests that the electoral cycle affects fiscal performance, especially when it comes to spending on economic matters and taxes on income, profits, and capital gains. Policymakers should be more aware of the government’s opportunistic impact during the electoral period. To keep the budget stable, regulating corruption and having a democratic attitude might lessen the effects of the electoral cycle. Full article

Poverty is a global problem associated with deprivation; it is marked by the lack of access to the minimum social needs for people’s integration and well-being. This work aims to measure the relationships between multidimensional poverty and unidimensional poverty in Brazil from 2016 to 2022. The research methodology used microdata from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey of the IBGE, multidimensional and unidimensional poverty measures, and multinomial logit regression. The results show a reduction in poverty in its different approaches. However, in 2022, 2.5% of the Brazilian population still lived in chronic poverty, 0.8% in structural poverty, and 25.7% in situational poverty, while the rest enjoyed their basic freedoms. Women, children and young people, non-whites, those with less education, and those living in the North and Northeast regions are more vulnerable. Based on the research results, it is recommended to enhance public policies to housing, education, employment inclusion, and food stability. Full article

Understanding the drivers of regional economic growth requires examining the mesoeconomic conditions that influence the ability of small firms to scale. This study investigates how the local composition of firms—by size and sector—along with socio-economic and geographic characteristics, affects the prevalence of Scaled Firms across U.S. labor market areas. Using cross-sectional data from 2022, the analysis applies a log-linear regression model to examine the relationship between the density of micro, midsize, and large firms and the share of Scaled Firms (defined as employing 5–99 workers) within industry sectors. Covariates include household wealth, educational attainment, unemployment, population diversity, and metropolitan classification. The results show that the presence of midsize and large firms, along with regional human capital and economic context, is significantly associated with higher levels of small firm scaling. These findings suggest that the mesoeconomic context plays an important role in shaping regional economic growth outcomes and that the composition of local firm ecosystems may influence a region’s capacity for resilience and inclusive development. Full article