Special Issue "Extreme Value Analysis of Short-Duration Rainfall and Intensity–Duration–Frequency Models"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology and Hydrogeology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 April 2021.

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Hans Van de Vyver
Website
Guest Editor
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Ringlaan 3, Uccle, Brussels B1180, Belgium
Interests: extreme value analysis; weather and climate extremes; IDF-models; spatial precipitation extremes; drought; past and future climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme rainfall events have a large impact on society and can lead to loss of life and property, for example, by causing landslides or flooding due to dike breach or dam failures. For planning, design, and operation of water resources projects, the estimation of flood risks often relies on the statistics of extreme precipitation.

The main aim is to develop methodologies and applications for the assessment of past and future characteristics of (short-duration) rainfall extremes. In particular, we welcome research findings in the form of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) models. The research is not only relevant at the local scale, but also at the catchment or the global scales.

The research activities include a wide range of expertise, and may focus on (i) analysis of temporal or spatial trends in extreme rainfall intensities, (ii) the estimation of the impact of climate change on future climate IDF relationships, with associated uncertainties, (iii) the estimation of IDF curves at ungauged sites by means of spatial extreme value models, scale invariance properties, or any other methodology or framework, (iv) the conversion of IDF characteristics at the local scale to catchment-average rainfall intensity, (v) the use of alternative rainfall datasets, i.e., other than rain gauge measurements, such as remote sensing rainfall records, and (vi) any other advanced statistical methodology such as multivariate extreme value theory to estimate joint probabilities between extreme rainfall intensities and other meteorological conditions.

Dr. Hans Van de Vyver
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • intensity–duration–frequency curves
  • design storms
  • subdaily precipitation extremes
  • scale invariance
  • extreme value theory
  • past and future precipitation extremes
  • spatial extremes
  • downscaling
  • uncertainty analysis

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

Open AccessArticle
A Rainfall Intensity Data Rescue Initiative for Central Chile Utilizing a Pluviograph Strip Charts Reader (PSCR)
Water 2020, 12(7), 1887; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071887 - 01 Jul 2020
Abstract
To develop intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, it is necessary to calculate annual maximum rainfall intensities for different durations. Traditionally, these intensities have been calculated from the analysis of traces recorded by rain gauges on pluviograph strip charts (PSCs). For many years, these charts have [...] Read more.
To develop intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, it is necessary to calculate annual maximum rainfall intensities for different durations. Traditionally, these intensities have been calculated from the analysis of traces recorded by rain gauges on pluviograph strip charts (PSCs). For many years, these charts have been recorded and analyzed by the personnel who operate and maintain the pluviograph gauges, thus the reliability of the observational analysis depends exclusively on the professional experience of the person performing the analysis. Traditionally, the analyzed PSCs are physically stored in data repository centers. After storing rainfall data on aging paper for many years, the risk of losing rainfall records is very high. Therefore, the conversion of PSC records to digital format is crucial to preserve and improve the historical instrumental data base of these records. We conducted the first “Data Rescue Initiative” (DRI) for central Chile using a pluviograph strip charts reader (PSCR), a tool that uses a scanner-type device combined with digital image processing techniques to estimate maximum rainfall intensities for different durations for each paper band (>80,000 paper bands). On the paper bands, common irregularities associated with excess ink, annotations, or blemishes can affect the scanning process; this system was designed with a semi-automatic module that allows users to edit the detected trace to improve the recognition of the data from each PSC. The PSCR’s semi-automatic characteristics were designed to read many PSCs in a short period of time. The tool also allows for the calculation of rainfall intensities in durations ranging between 15 min to 1 h. This capability improves the value of the data for water infrastructure design, since intense storms of shorter duration often have greater impacts than longer but less intense storms. In this study, the validation of the PSCR against records obtained from observational analysis showed no significant differences between maximum rainfall intensities for durations of 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Estimating Rainfall Design Values for the City of Oslo, Norway—Comparison of Methods and Quantification of Uncertainty
Water 2020, 12(6), 1735; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061735 - 17 Jun 2020
Abstract
Due to its location, its old sewage system, and the channelling of rivers, Oslo is highly exposed to urban flooding. Thus, it is crucial to provide relevant and reliable information on extreme precipitation in the planning and design of infrastructure. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves [...] Read more.
Due to its location, its old sewage system, and the channelling of rivers, Oslo is highly exposed to urban flooding. Thus, it is crucial to provide relevant and reliable information on extreme precipitation in the planning and design of infrastructure. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are a frequently used tool for that purpose. However, the computational method for IDF curves in Norway was established over 45 years ago, and has not been further developed since. In our study, we show that the current method of fitting a Gumbel distribution to the highest precipitation events is not able to reflect the return values for the long return periods. Instead, we introduce the fitting of a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for annual maximum precipitation in two different ways, using (a) a modified Maximum Likelihood estimation and (b) Bayesian inference. The comparison of the two methods for 14 stations in and around Oslo reveals that the estimated median return values are very similar, but the Bayesian method provides upper credible interval boundaries that are considerably higher. Two different goodness-of-fit tests favour the Bayesian method; thus, we suggest using the Bayesian inference for estimating IDF curves for the Oslo area. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Web-Based Tool for the Development of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves under Changing Climate at Gauged and Ungauged Locations
Water 2020, 12(5), 1243; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051243 - 27 Apr 2020
Abstract
Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are among the most essential datasets used in water resources management across the globe. Traditionally, they are derived from observations of historical rainfall, under the assumption of stationarity. Change of climatic conditions makes use of historical data for development [...] Read more.
Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are among the most essential datasets used in water resources management across the globe. Traditionally, they are derived from observations of historical rainfall, under the assumption of stationarity. Change of climatic conditions makes use of historical data for development of IDFs for the future unreliable, and in some cases, may lead to underestimated infrastructure designs. The IDF_CC tool is designed to assist water professionals and engineers in producing IDF estimates under changing climatic conditions. The latest version of the tool (Version 4) provides updated IDF curve estimates for gauged locations (rainfall monitoring stations) and ungauged sites using a new gridded dataset of IDF curves for the land mass of Canada. The tool has been developed using web-based technologies and takes the form of a decision support system (DSS). The main modifications and improvements between version 1 and the latest version of the IDF_CC tool include: (i) introduction of the Generalized Extreme value (GEV) distribution; (ii) updated equidistant matching algorithm (QM); (iii) gridded IDF curves dataset for ungauged location and (iv) updated Climate Models. Full article
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Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

Dr. Rodrigo Marcelo Valdes, Dr. Roberto Pizarro Tapia, Dr. Fernando Gonzalez Leiva are interested in sending some of the studies they have done regarding IDF curves:

(1) Development of a Pluviograph's Strip Charts Reader to digitize rainfall intensity data in Chile. This is the result of a 4-year project.
(2) Recent and Historical trends of Daily Rainfall Intensity in Chile. This is a study under development.
(3) IDF.m A simple matlab-based tool o calculate IDF curves under changing conditions. The tool and the manuscript are done. 
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