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Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates
Article

Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

1
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
2
Wupperverband, Untere Lichtenplatzer Str. 100, 42289 Wuppertal, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(12), 3314; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123314
Received: 27 September 2020 / Revised: 21 November 2020 / Accepted: 23 November 2020 / Published: 25 November 2020
To explicitly account for asymptotic dependence between rainfall intensity maxima of different accumulation duration, a recent development for estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves involves the use of a max-stable process. In our study, we aimed to estimate the impact on the performance of the return levels resulting from an IDF model that accounts for such asymptotical dependence. To investigate this impact, we compared the performance of the return level estimates of two IDF models using the quantile skill index (QSI). One IDF model is based on a max-stable process assuming asymptotic dependence; the other is a simplified (or reduced) duration-dependent GEV model assuming asymptotic independence. The resulting QSI shows that the overall performance of the two models is very similar, with the max-stable model slightly outperforming the other model for short durations (d10h). From a simulation study, we conclude that max-stable processes are worth considering for IDF curve estimation when focusing on short durations if the model’s asymptotic dependence can be assumed to be properly captured. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme value statistics; extreme precipitation; intensity-duration-frequency curve; max-stable process; duration-dependent GEV extreme value statistics; extreme precipitation; intensity-duration-frequency curve; max-stable process; duration-dependent GEV
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MDPI and ACS Style

Jurado, O.E.; Ulrich, J.; Scheibel, M.; Rust, H.W. Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves. Water 2020, 12, 3314. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123314

AMA Style

Jurado OE, Ulrich J, Scheibel M, Rust HW. Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves. Water. 2020; 12(12):3314. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123314

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jurado, Oscar E.; Ulrich, Jana; Scheibel, Marc; Rust, Henning W. 2020. "Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves" Water 12, no. 12: 3314. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123314

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