Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

A special issue of Economies (ISSN 2227-7099).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 July 2024 | Viewed by 6703

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Via Columbia 2, 00133 Rome, Italy
Interests: fiscal and monetary policy; monetary economics; macroeconomic dynamics; simulation analysis; applied economics

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The nexus between fiscal policy and aggregate stability is a critical issue in the current macroeconomic debate, especially considering the unprecedented, massive surge in public debt-to-GDP ratios to counter the pandemic-induced recession. This Special Issue aims to publish original research on both theoretical and empirical aspects of fiscal policy and their interrelations with macroeconomic stability. Topics include but are not limited to: fiscal policy and economic growth; fiscal policy and economic fluctuations; fiscal multipliers; fiscal policy and dynamic equilibria; interactions between fiscal and monetary policies; fiscal policy and inflation dynamics; macroeconomic aspects of public finance; dynamic analyses of taxes and expenditures; and fiscal policy in open economies.

Dr. Alessandro Piergallini
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • fiscal policy
  • macroeconomic stability
  • economic growth
  • economic fluctuations
  • inflation dynamics

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

14 pages, 645 KiB  
Communication
On the Inflation-Debt-Bubble “Vicious Cycle” in Times of Evolving Money—A Memorandum of Forward-Looking Lessons
by Edoardo Beretta
Economies 2024, 12(2), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12020026 - 23 Jan 2024
Viewed by 1373
Abstract
The global financial crisis (2008–2009) represents a notable example of a generally unpredicted crisis in economic history. Nevertheless, it presented features comparable to almost any previous (monetarily related) crisis episode. For instance, it was characterized by a “vicious cycle” made by over-issued money [...] Read more.
The global financial crisis (2008–2009) represents a notable example of a generally unpredicted crisis in economic history. Nevertheless, it presented features comparable to almost any previous (monetarily related) crisis episode. For instance, it was characterized by a “vicious cycle” made by over-issued money and/or over-granted loans nourishing private and public indebtedness and—eventually—affecting asset prices with stable consumer price indexes. While the post-COVID-19 inflation presents different characteristics because of being a crisis “exogenous” to the economic system, the present Communication claims that future crises (if endogenous to the economic system) are likely to follow usual patterns. The approach used to analyse the transmission channels contributing to economic and financial crises is theoretical. Nevertheless, the present Communication still contains statistical evidence in support of the predictability of such crises as soon as their usual dynamics is understood. The statistical analysis carried out is rather descriptive than causal in nature. Finally, this Communication reminds that “typical” economic and financial crises in advanced economies behave along some consolidated patterns. At their origins, there are mostly over-issued money and/or over-granted loans by central and/or commercial banks financing private and public debt. This phenomenon exacerbates risks in the economy and—while it incentivises money issuers and credit granters in good times to over-issue money and over-grant credits to earn extra-profits—it over-exposes economic agents to the risk of (even greater) economic losses in negative times. As soon as the bubble to be defined as over-proportionally grown prices of specific assets due to over-issued money and over-granted credits pops and funds are rapidly divested, prices collapse and drive the economy into a severe crisis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability)
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25 pages, 2247 KiB  
Article
On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach
by José Carlos Trejo-García, Ramón Valencia-Romero, María De Lourdes Soto-Rosales and Francisco Venegas-Martínez
Economies 2024, 12(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010021 - 17 Jan 2024
Viewed by 1511
Abstract
The effects of various geopolitical tensions, conflicts between countries and the global post-pandemic COVID-19 have caused an acceleration in the price level in many countries around the world. This research focuses on Mexico since its monetary policy has created intricate interactions between inflation [...] Read more.
The effects of various geopolitical tensions, conflicts between countries and the global post-pandemic COVID-19 have caused an acceleration in the price level in many countries around the world. This research focuses on Mexico since its monetary policy has created intricate interactions between inflation and growth in the short and long term, maintaining recently one of the highest real interest rates in Latin America (on average 5.75% vs. the US 2.3%). This paper examines the asymmetric link between the National Consumer Price Index and the Global Economic Activity Index in Mexico during the period 1994–2023. To do this, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Delay (NARDL) model is used with monthly data, which will allow the relationship between both variables to be more adequately investigated. The main empirical finding is that upward or downward shocks to the consumer price index have caused different effects in magnitude and sign on economic growth over time. Finally, several reasonable, practical, and feasible recommendations are provided for the design of the monetary policy considering non-linear effects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability)
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19 pages, 4771 KiB  
Article
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Landscape of Economics Research
by Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez, Juan David Gonzalez-Ruiz and Sergio Botero
Economies 2023, 11(12), 300; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11120300 - 14 Dec 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1902
Abstract
This scientometric analysis delves into the current trajectory and anticipated prospects of assessing fiscal sustainability, emphasizing methodologies, trends, and pivotal literature in this critical economic realm. This study analyzed 324 studies from Scopus and Web of Science databases to generate the dataset through [...] Read more.
This scientometric analysis delves into the current trajectory and anticipated prospects of assessing fiscal sustainability, emphasizing methodologies, trends, and pivotal literature in this critical economic realm. This study analyzed 324 studies from Scopus and Web of Science databases to generate the dataset through scientometric networks, using VOSviewer and Bibliometrix tools. Through a comprehensive review of scientific literature, this research traces the developmental trajectory of fiscal sustainability, trend topics, influential studies, and key contributors employing bibliometric and scientometric tools. The study maps the landscape of fiscal sustainability exploration, underscoring an evolving shift towards interdisciplinary methods encompassing environmental, social, and political factors. Furthermore, the keywords analysis accentuates three emergent trends, mainly (i) the relation between fiscal sustainability and economic growth, (ii) the methodologies and models for assessing fiscal sustainability, and (iii) demographic concerns and their impact on fiscal sustainability. This research provides insights into the evolving terrain of fiscal sustainability exploration and anticipates promising avenues for further studies. The examination reveals the significance of methodologies such as panel data, multicointegration analysis, probabilistic debt analysis, Markov-switching models, and wavelets analysis in assessing fiscal sustainability. By offering a comprehensive overview, this analysis aspires to direct forthcoming inquiries and contribute to the ongoing discussion surrounding the assessment of fiscal stability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability)
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15 pages, 1173 KiB  
Article
Testing the Sustainability of Fiscal Policy during the Portuguese First Republic Using Stationary and Cointegration Tests
by Ricardo Ferraz
Economies 2023, 11(11), 267; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11110267 - 26 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1432
Abstract
The Portuguese First Republic (1910–1926) was marked by significant instability at the most diverse levels. With a special focus on the financial dimension of this period, the objective of this paper is to test the sustainability of the Portuguese fiscal policy, also referred [...] Read more.
The Portuguese First Republic (1910–1926) was marked by significant instability at the most diverse levels. With a special focus on the financial dimension of this period, the objective of this paper is to test the sustainability of the Portuguese fiscal policy, also referred to as the sustainability of public finances itself. The methodology involves testing the stationarity of public debt and budget balance and also the cointegration between state revenue and expenditure. The results obtained shows that the state’s intertemporal budgetary constraint was violated during the First Republic regime, which denotes unsustainability. This conclusion is justified by the existence of a non-stationary budget balance and the absence of cointegration between state revenue and expenditure. These results are manifestly different from those that have already been obtained for other Portuguese regimes, namely for the Estado Novo (1933–1974) and democracy (1974–present), where sustainability existed. This paper is yet another demonstration of how important it is to maintain control of state’s accounts. We hope that this paper can be useful to stimulate new research on Portuguese public finances and also on the important issue of fiscal policy sustainability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability)
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