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Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species

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A special issue of Ecologies (ISSN 2673-4133).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2024) | Viewed by 28628

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Prof. Dr. Valery E. Forbes

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Charles E. Schmidt College of Science, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA
Interests: environmental risk assessment; aquatic ecotoxicology; statistics; invertebrate zoology; marine ecology; functional ecology of benthic invertebrates; evolution; oceanography

Dr. Sandy Raimondo

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US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecosystem Measurement and Modeling Division, Gulf Breeze, FL 32561, USA
Interests: population ecology; environmental risk assessment; effects modelings; aquatic ecotoxicology; endangered species
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Dear Colleagues,

The scientific basis for using population models to assess, manage, and conserve species is well established. However, concerns related to model complexity, model uncertainty, endpoint utility, added investment, data availability, and general scepticism of models has impeded the acceptance of such models as standard practice across the spectrum of potential applications. In an effort to facilitate the use of population modeling in ecological risk assessment, a comprehensive guide was recently published called Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE; Raimondo et al. 2020, IEAM). Pop-GUIDE provides a systematic process for model development that is applicable across taxa and serves as a documentation of the model development process. It makes the process of model development transparent, and decisions and assumptions taken during development are made explicit. In this Special Issue, we provide case studies developed for different taxa and model applications to demonstrate how Pop-GUIDE works in practice and show its usefulness as a tool for consistent and transparent model development, evaluation, and communication.

Prof. Dr. Valery E. Forbes
Dr. Sandy Raimondo
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Ecological risk assessment
Endangered species
Environmental regulation
Good modeling practice
Population viability analysis

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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25 pages, 4562 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling Trophic Cascades to Identify Key Mammalian Species for Ecosystem Stability

by Idung Risdiyanto, Yanto Santosa, Nyoto Santoso and Arzyana Sunkar

Ecologies 2024, 5(4), 585-609; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies5040035 - 1 Nov 2024

Viewed by 898

Abstract

The role of keystone species in maintaining ecosystem stability is a crucial aspect of ecology. Identifying key mammalian species within an ecosystem requires a systematic approach, utilizing criteria and indicators derived from species characteristic variables. This study presents a framework to identify key mammalian species based on various ecological, structural, and functional factors. By developing a mechanistic model of energy flow in food webs and trophic levels, the model aims to pinpoint each species’ role in the stability and sustainability of biomass flow within the ecosystem. Known as KVT version 1.0, the model explains the role of each characteristic variable of mammalian species, predicts population growth, elucidates species interactions at trophic levels, and assesses species-specific dietary compositions, including food requirements, reproduction, and activity. Factor analysis of model outputs has produced equations to determine the value of keystone species (K_v), indicating the role of mammalian species in the stability and sustainability of biomass flow in the ecosystem. Keystone species, as identified by this model, are primarily small mammals of the families Muridae, Sciuridae, Tupaiidae, Ptilocercidae, Hystricidae, Viverridae, and Herpestidae, demonstrating omnivorous and herbivorous trophic levels. This model can serve as a valuable framework for conservation management of biodiversity in an ecosystem, with potential for expansion to include characteristics of non-mammalian species in future research. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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24 pages, 1302 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Using Pop-GUIDE to Assess the Applicability of MCnest for Relative Risk of Pesticides to Hummingbirds

by Matthew A. Etterson, Elizabeth A. Paulukonis and S. Thomas Purucker

Ecologies 2023, 4(1), 171-194; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4010013 - 3 Mar 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2347

Abstract

Hummingbirds are charismatic fauna that provide important pollination services, including in the continental US, where 15 species regularly breed. Compared to other birds in North America, hummingbirds (family Trochilidae) have a unique exposure route to pesticides because they forage on nectar. Therefore, hummingbirds may be exposed to systemic pesticides borne in nectar. They also may be particularly vulnerable to pesticide exposure due to their small size and extreme metabolic demands. We review relevant factors including hummingbird life history, nectar residue uptake, and avian bioenergetic considerations with the goal of clearly identifying and articulating the specific modeling challenges that must be overcome to develop and/or adapt existing modeling approaches. To help evaluate these factors, we developed a dataset for ruby-throated hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris) and other avian species potentially exposed to pesticides. We used the systemic neonicotinoid pesticide imidacloprid as an illustration and compared results to five other common current use pesticides. We use the structure of Pop-GUIDE to provide a conceptual modeling framework for implementation of MCnest and to compile parameter values and relevant algorithms to predict the effects of pesticide exposure on avian pollinators. Conservative screening assessments suggest the potential for adverse effects from imidacloprid, as do more refined assessments, though many important limitations and uncertainties remain. Our review found many areas in which current USEPA avian models must be improved in order to conduct a full higher-tier risk assessment for avian pollinators exposed to neonicotinoid insecticides, including addition of models suitable for soil and seed treatments within the MCnest environment, ability to include empirical residue data in both nectar and invertebrates rather than relying on existing nomograms, expansion of MCnest to a full annual cycle, and increased representation of spatial heterogeneity. Although this work focuses on hummingbirds, the methods and recommendations may apply more widely to other vertebrate pollinators. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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15 pages, 11704 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Investigating Vernal Pool Fairy Shrimp Exposure to Organophosphate Pesticides: Implications for Population-Level Risk Assessment

by David H. Miller, Matthew Etterson, Leah Oliver, Elizabeth Paulukonis, Nathan Pollesch, S. Thomas Purucker, D. Christopher Rogers, Sumathy Sinnathamby and Sandy Raimondo

Ecologies 2022, 3(3), 308-322; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3030024 - 2 Aug 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3462

Abstract

Vernal pool fairy shrimp, Branchinecta lynchi, is a freshwater crustacean endemic to California and Oregon, including California’s Central Valley. B. lynchi is listed as a Federally Threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act, and as a vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List. Threats that may negatively impact vernal pool fairy shrimp populations include pesticide applications to agricultural land use (e.g., agrochemicals such as organophosphate pesticides) and climate changes that impact vernal pool hydrology. Pop-GUIDE (Population model Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment) is a comprehensive tool that facilitates development and implementation of population models for ecological risk assessment and can be used to document the model derivation process. We employed Pop-GUIDE to document and facilitate the development of a population model for investigating impacts of organophosphate pesticides on vernal pool fairy shrimp populations in California’s Central Valley. The resulting model could be applied in combination with field assessment and laboratory-based chemical analysis to link effects from pesticide exposure to adverse outcomes in populations across their range. B. lynchi has a unique intra-annual life cycle that is largely dependent upon environmental conditions. Future deployment of this population model should include complex scenarios consisting of multiple stressors, whereby the model is used to examine scenarios that combine chemical stress resulting from exposure to pesticides and climate changes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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17 pages, 1330 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Simulating the Effects of Pesticides on Honey Bee (Apis mellifera L.) Colonies with BeePop+

by Kristina Garber, Gloria DeGrandi-Hoffman, Robert Curry, Jeffrey M. Minucci, Daniel E. Dawson, Cameron Douglass, Joseph P. Milone and S. Thomas Purucker

Ecologies 2022, 3(3), 275-291; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3030022 - 25 Jul 2022

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4624

Abstract

The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) employs a tiered process for assessing risks of pesticides to bees. The model discussed in this paper focuses on honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). If risks to honey bees are identified at the first tier based on exposure and toxicity data for individual adult and larval honey bees, then effects are evaluated in higher-tier studies using honey bee colonies. Colony-level studies require large amounts of resources (to conduct and review) and can yield data complicated by the inherent variability of colonies, which are influenced by factors that cannot readily be controlled, including weather, pests, diseases, available forage, and bee management practices. To better interpret these data, the USEPA and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) developed a simulation model, BeePop+, that assesses potential honey bee colony-level effects of pesticides. Here, we describe this model using the population model guidance, use, interpretation, and development for ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE) framework, which is a conceptual framework for the development and evaluation of population models. Within the context of Pop-GUIDE, BeePop+ is considered a “realistic-precise” model and reflects the inherent variability of colony response to pesticide exposure by simulating many outcomes. This model meets the desired features needed for use in pesticide risk assessments as its required data inputs are typically available, it is applicable to different US locations, and the outputs are both relevant to USEPA’s protection goals for honey bees and are consistent with the outcomes of empirical studies. This model has also been evaluated using available empirical colony-level data; however, additional evaluation with other studies may still be done in the future prior to completing implementation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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14 pages, 1381 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Climate and Hydroregime Variability Constrain Ephemeral Wetland-Dependent Amphibian Populations in Simulations of Southern Toads

by Jill A. Awkerman and Cathryn H. Greenberg

Ecologies 2022, 3(2), 235-248; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3020018 - 17 Jun 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2201

Abstract

Amphibian populations are threatened globally by stressors, including diminishing availability of suitable wetland breeding sites, altered hydroregimes driven by changing weather patterns, and exposure to contaminants. Ecological risk assessment should encompass spatial and temporal scales that capture influential ecological processes and demographic responses. Following the PopGUIDE framework of population model development for risk assessment, we used matrix population models, in conjunction with existing hydroregime predictions, under a climate change scenario to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity and aquatic pesticide exposure on amphibians that are dependent on ephemeral wetlands. Using southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) as an example, we simulated population dynamics with breeding success dependent on hydroregime suitability. Years were defined as optimal, marginal, or insufficient for successful toad recruitment, based on the duration of their potential breeding season and rate of larval development to metamorphosis. We simulated both probabilistic and chronologically specific population projections, including variable annual fecundity, based on hydroregime suitability and reduced larval survival from carbaryl exposure. In our simulations, populations were more negatively impacted by prolonged drought, and consequently multiple sequential years of reproductive failure, than by aquatic pesticide exposure. These results highlight the necessity of reliable climate projections to accurately represent the effects of altered hydroregimes on amphibian populations. Risk assessment approaches could be improved with flexible modifications that allow inclusion of various extrinsic stressors and identification of demographic and ecological vulnerabilities when precise data are lacking. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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23 pages, 1815 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling Pesticide Effects on Multiple Threatened and Endangered Cyprinid Fish Species: The Role of Life-History Traits and Ecology

by Chiara Accolla, Amelie Schmolke, Andy Jacobson, Colleen Roy, Valery E. Forbes, Richard Brain and Nika Galic

Ecologies 2022, 3(2), 183-205; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3020015 - 6 Jun 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3021

Abstract

Mechanistic models are invaluable in ecological risk assessment (ERA) because they facilitate extrapolation of organism-level effects to population-level effects while accounting for species life history, ecology, and vulnerability. In this work, we developed a model framework to compare the potential effects of the fungicide chlorothalonil across four listed species of cyprinid fish and explore species-specific traits of importance at the population level. The model is an agent-based model based on the dynamic energy budget theory. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic sub-models were used for representing direct effects, whereas indirect effects were described by decreasing food availability. Exposure profiles were constructed based on hydroxychlorothalonil, given the relatively short half-life of parent chlorothalonil. Different exposure magnification factors were required to achieve a comparable population decrease across species. In particular, those species producing fewer eggs and with shorter lifespans appeared to be more vulnerable. Moreover, sequentially adding effect sub-models resulted in different outcomes depending on the interplay of life-history traits and density-dependent compensation effects. We conclude by stressing the importance of using models in ERA to account for species-specific characteristics and ecology, especially when dealing with listed species and in accordance with the necessity of reducing animal testing. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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14 pages, 454 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Realism, Conservatism, and Tiered Ecological Risk Assessment

by Matthew A. Etterson

Ecologies 2022, 3(2), 131-144; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3020011 - 26 May 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2234

Abstract

Recent research has provided valuable momentum for the development and use of population models for ecological risk assessment (ERA). In general, ERA proceeds along a tiered strategy, with conservative assumptions deployed at lower tiers that are relaxed at higher tiers with ever more realistic models. As the tier increases, so do the levels of time and effort required by the assessor. When faced with many stressors, species, and habitats, risk assessors need to find efficiencies. Conservative lower-tier approaches are well established, but higher-tier models often prioritize accuracy, and conservative approaches are relatively unexplored at higher tiers. A principle of efficiency for ecological modeling for population-level ecological risk assessment is articulated and evaluated against a conceptual model and an existing set of avian models for chemical risk assessment. Here, four published avian models are reviewed in increasing order of realism (risk quotient → Markov chain nest productivity model → endogenous lifecycle model → spatially explicit population model). Models are compared in a pairwise fashion according to increasing realism and evaluated as to whether conservatism increases or decreases with each step. The principle of efficiency is shown to be a challenging ideal, though some cause for optimism is identified. Strategies are suggested for studying efficiency in tiered ecological model deployment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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18 pages, 767 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating the Efficacy of Approaches to Control Invasive Populations: A Conceptual Model Development for the Signal Crayfish

by Sandra Hudina, Ivana Maguire, Paula Dragičević and Nika Galic

Ecologies 2022, 3(2), 78-95; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3020008 - 5 May 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3881

Abstract

Invasive crayfish are among the major threats to freshwater ecosystems, with the signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus, being one of the most successful crayfish invaders in Europe. Approaches to invasive crayfish control range from manual and physical to biological and biocidal control methods. However, all of these approaches have their drawbacks and have limited efficacy. Among traditional approaches with minimal impacts on environment and non-target species, manual control via trapping is the most frequently applied. More innovative approaches comprise, among others, usage of sterile male release technique, whose efficacy in the field is yet to be fully tested, especially how it combines with more traditional approaches. A good alternative to costly and logistically challenging field comparisons of these approaches and their combinations is population modeling. Population models can integrate all relevant species-specific biological and ecological information and can be applied to identify management scenarios of highest impact on invasive crayfish abundances. In this study, we developed a conceptual population model of the invasive P. leniusculus following the Pop-GUIDE framework. In addition, we expanded on the framework to increase its applicability to other fields beyond environmental risk assessment. Finally, we discuss potential application of the model and its future use as a management tool. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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16 pages, 1369 KiB

Open AccessPerspective

Moving beyond Risk Quotients: Advancing Ecological Risk Assessment to Reflect Better, More Robust and Relevant Methods

by Sandy Raimondo and Valery E. Forbes

Ecologies 2022, 3(2), 145-160; https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies3020012 - 27 May 2022

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3435

Abstract

Under standard guidance for conducting Ecological Risk Assessments (ERAs), the risks of chemical exposure to diverse organisms are most often based on deterministic point estimates evaluated against safety-factor-based levels of concern (LOCs). While the science and guidance for mechanistic effect models (e.g., demographic, population, and agent-based) have long been demonstrated to provide more ecologically relevant effect endpoints upon which risk can be evaluated, their application in ERAs has been limited, particularly in the US. This special issue highlights the state of the science in effect modeling for ERAs through demonstrated application of the recently published Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for ERA (Pop-GUIDE). We introduce this issue with a perspective on why it is critical to move past the current application of deterministic endpoints and LOCs. We demonstrate how the current, widely used approaches contain extensive uncertainty that could be reduced considerably by applying models that account for species life histories and other important endogenous and exogenous factors critical to species sustainability. We emphasize that it is long past time to incorporate better, more robust, and ecologically relevant effect models into ERAs, particularly for chronic risk determination. The papers in this special issue demonstrate how mechanistic models that follow Pop-GUIDE better inform ERAs compared to the current standard practice. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Population Modeling for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Species)

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