Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 September 2022) | Viewed by 47765

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Geography, University of the Aegean, Lesbos, Greece
Interests: synoptic climatology with particular emphasis on the Mediterranean region; relationships between atmospheric circulation processes and surface climate conditions; climate change and socio-economic impacts; climate extreme events; climate models and climate indices
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Guest Editor
Department of Urban-Regional Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece
Interests: geographic information science; remote sensing; spatial statistics; land change science; environmental monitoring and modelling; spatial and environmental planning; climate change impacts
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The change of earth’s climate has gained increasing attention mainly due to the potential impacts it might induce. Climate change is expected to trigger disruptive environmental events with impacts that could pose significant risks to societies and economies.

This special issue focuses on the multidisciplinary nature of  climate change research which employs, apart from the natural sciences, scientists from social, political, and economic fields. The scientific basis for climate change is now established and many studies focus on the potential impacts on a variety of socio-economic sectors such as, human health, food security, ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, fishery, tourism, water resources, and energy demand. The rise of interdisciplinary research on climate change and its effects, highlighted the need for available data on several spatial scales, from local and regional to global scales.

Moreover, modern technologies that facilitate data availability and analysis are of particular interest. Advances in database technology allow researchers and end-users to manage large databases. Technology improvements generate better sets of data in terms of accuracy, resolution, coverage and allow the implementation of innovative methods to evaluate or/and combat the effects of climate change including the risk assessment for natural disasters. Application of global and regional climate data are used to study atmospheric processes and the changes in global and regional climate. Many applications require data at finer scales, setting the priorities for the development of novel downscaling techniques.

Nowadays, significant amount of climate data, useful in climate change research, become available from satellites, as satellite imagery provides valuable information for the atmospheric and surface climate conditions. Satellite observations are essential for improving the understanding of climate change and assessing its impacts. Among the priorities of this special issue, are the use of geospatial technologies, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems, for monitoring and modeling the climate system, and evaluating the effects of climate change on natural systems/resources.

Well prepared review papers are also welcomed.

Kind regards,

Dr. Effie Kostopoulou
Dr. Sotirios Koukoulas
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • satellite derived essential climate variables
  • climatic indices
  • climate monitoring and analysis
  • vulnerability assessment and mapping
  • climate change and water resources
  • climate change and food security
  • climate change and natural disasters
  • climate change and socio-economic impacts
  • climate change and land use changes
  • climate change and ecosystems
  • climate change and energy demand
  • adaptation strategies
  • scenario analysis
  • mitigation

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Published Papers (12 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 5440 KiB  
Article
Projected Changes in Extreme Wet and Dry Conditions in Greece
by Effie Kostopoulou and Christos Giannakopoulos
Climate 2023, 11(3), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030049 - 21 Feb 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3262
Abstract
Earth’s changing climate may have different effects around the planet. Regional changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are associated with damaging natural hazards. Decreases in precipitation are expected to occur in some places at mid-latitudes, for instance the Mediterranean, which has been classified [...] Read more.
Earth’s changing climate may have different effects around the planet. Regional changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are associated with damaging natural hazards. Decreases in precipitation are expected to occur in some places at mid-latitudes, for instance the Mediterranean, which has been classified as a climate change hotspot. Droughts are among the most damaging natural hazards with severe consequences in the socio-economic sectors, the environment, and living beings. In contrast, extreme heavy precipitation events may become more frequent. This study aims to project changes in precipitation extremes and assess drought variability and change across Greece. A better knowledge of the potential changes in drought variability under climate change is vital for managing potential risks and impacts associated with dry conditions. The spatiotemporal characteristics of heavy precipitation and drought events in Greece are investigated using extreme precipitation indices such as consecutive wet/dry days, total wet-day precipitation, fraction of total wet-day rainfall, maximum daily precipitation, and heavy precipitation days. The standardized precipitation index and the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index are also calculated to assess seasonal dryness variability. The analysis is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution simulations from EURO-CORDEX, under two different representative concentration pathway scenarios. The results show that the region is subject to future dry conditions. Total annual precipitation is found to decrease in most of the country, with western and southern parts tending to be the most vulnerable areas. The annual precipitation is estimated to decrease by 5–20% and 5–25% (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) toward the period 2041–2070 and by 10–25% and 15–40% (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) toward 2071–2100. Drought-related indices reveal positive trends, particularly under the high greenhouse-gas emission scenario, with the number of consecutive dry days increasing by 20–50% and 40–80% (during 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively). On the contrary, extreme precipitation events tend to decrease in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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12 pages, 4204 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Kriging for Days without Rainfall in a Region of Northeastern Brazil
by Elias Silva de Medeiros, Renato Ribeiro de Lima and Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos
Climate 2023, 11(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11010021 - 9 Jan 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1934
Abstract
Climate change has had several negative effects, including more severe storms, warmer oceans, high temperatures and, in particular, increased drought, directly affecting the water availability in a region. The Northeast Region of Brazil (NEB) is known to have scarce rainfall, especially in the [...] Read more.
Climate change has had several negative effects, including more severe storms, warmer oceans, high temperatures and, in particular, increased drought, directly affecting the water availability in a region. The Northeast Region of Brazil (NEB) is known to have scarce rainfall, especially in the northeastern semiarid region. Droughts and high temperatures in the NEB negatively affect water resources in the region, resulting in a gradual decrease in the storage volume in the reservoirs and contributing to unprecedented water scarcity. The objective of this research was to investigate the spatiotemporal behavior of the number of days without rain (DWR) in a region of northeastern Brazil, making use of the spatiotemporal geostatistical methodology. Cross-validation resulted in an R2 of 71%, indicating a good performance of spatiotemporal kriging for predicting DWRs. The results indicate a spatial dependence for a radius of up to 39 km and that the DWR observations in a certain location influence its estimates in the next 2.8 years. The projection maps from 2021 to 2030 identified a growing trend in the DWRs. With the results presented in our study, it is expected that they can be used by government agencies for the adoption of public policies aiming to minimize the possible damage caused by long periods of drought. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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19 pages, 8411 KiB  
Article
Analyzing Sensitive Aerosol Regimes and Active Geolocations of Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds over the Global Oceans by Using Long-Term Operational Satellite Observations
by Xuepeng Zhao and Michael J. Foster
Climate 2022, 10(11), 167; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110167 - 3 Nov 2022
Viewed by 2671
Abstract
Long-term satellite climate data records of aerosol and cloud along with meteorological reanalysis data have been used to study the aerosol effects on deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the global oceans from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying sensitive aerosol regimes [...] Read more.
Long-term satellite climate data records of aerosol and cloud along with meteorological reanalysis data have been used to study the aerosol effects on deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the global oceans from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying sensitive aerosol regimes and active geolocations of the aerosol effects on DCCs by using statistical analyses on long-term averaged aerosol and cloud variables. We found the aerosol effect tends to manifest relatively easily on the long-term mean values of observed cloud microphysical variables (e.g., cloud particle size and ice water amount) compared to observed cloud macrophysical variables (e.g., cloud cover and cloud top height). An increase of aerosol loading tends to increase DCC particle size and ice water amount in the tropical convergence zones but decrease them in the subtropical subsidence regions. The aerosol effect on the cloud microphysical variables is also likely to manifest over the northwestern Pacific Ocean and central and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. The aerosol effect manifested on the microphysical cloud variables may also propagate to cloud cover but weakly to cloud top height since the latter is more susceptible to the influence of cloud dynamical and thermodynamic processes. Our results, based on the long-term averaged operational satellite observation, are valuable for the evaluation and improvement of aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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22 pages, 4438 KiB  
Article
Variation Patterns of the ENSO’s Effects on Dust Activity in North Africa, Arabian Peninsula, and Central Asia of the Dust Belt
by Zhi-Yong Yin, Anne Maytubby and Xiaodong Liu
Climate 2022, 10(10), 150; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10100150 - 13 Oct 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1916
Abstract
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events produce anomalous oceanographic and atmospheric conditions in regions far from the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, which modulate the atmospheric and surface processes that influence the dust emission, transport, and deposition in many places on Earth. In this study, we [...] Read more.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events produce anomalous oceanographic and atmospheric conditions in regions far from the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, which modulate the atmospheric and surface processes that influence the dust emission, transport, and deposition in many places on Earth. In this study, we examined the MERRA-2 dust column mass density data in five subregions of the “dust belt”: eastern and western Arabian Peninsula, western and eastern Central Asia, and North Africa-Sahara during 1980–2021. We discovered that, while there is a common dust season from April to July, the specific dust seasons in these subregions are different with the peaks of dust activity occurring at different times of the year. In the meantime, the modulating effects of ENSO also peak at different times within the respective dust seasons. For example, ENSO has a persistent effect on dust activity during April-August in the eastern Arabian Peninsula, while its influence in eastern Central Asia lasts from February to November. For different well-recognized factors of dust activities, such as precipitation/humidity, wind, vegetation, and soil moisture, their responses to ENSO are also different in these subregions. For precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture, their responses to ENSO are mostly positive in winter and spring/early summer months during El Niño years, while mean daily maximum wind responded positively in spring, but it did so negatively in summer. During the three months when the ENSO’s effects were strongest, these factors could explain 25.1–58.6% of the variance in the dust column mass density in combination with the ENSO’s modulation effects. However, the highest model-explained variance was obtained for the North Africa–Sahara subregion where the intensity of dust activity was not statistically correlated with ENSO. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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19 pages, 7864 KiB  
Article
Unravelling Precipitation Trends in Greece since 1950s Using ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data
by George Varlas, Konstantinos Stefanidis, George Papaioannou, Yiannis Panagopoulos, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Petros Katsafados, Anastasios Papadopoulos and Elias Dimitriou
Climate 2022, 10(2), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10020012 - 18 Jan 2022
Cited by 20 | Viewed by 5752
Abstract
Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters, as it is determined by many physical processes. The spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation have been significantly affected by climate change during the past decades. Analysis of precipitation trends is challenging, especially in regions such [...] Read more.
Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters, as it is determined by many physical processes. The spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation have been significantly affected by climate change during the past decades. Analysis of precipitation trends is challenging, especially in regions such as Greece, which is characterized by complex topography and includes several ungauged areas. With this study, we aim to shed new light on the climatic characteristics and inter-annual trends of precipitation over Greece. For this purpose, we used ERA5 monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 to estimate annual Theil–Sen trends and Mann–Kendall significance over Greece and surrounding areas. Additionally, in order to analyze and model the nonlinear relationships of monthly precipitation time series, we used generalized additive models (GAMs). The results indicated significant declining inter-annual trends of areal precipitation over the study area. Declining trends were more pronounced in winter over western and eastern Greece, but trends in spring, summer and autumn were mostly not significant. GAMs showcased that the trends were generally characterized by nonlinearity and precipitation over the study area presented high inter-decadal variability. Combining the results, we concluded that precipitation did not linearly change during the past 7 decades, but it first increased from the 1950s to the late 1960s, consequently decreased until the early 1990s and, afterwards, presented an increase until 2020 with a smaller rate than the 1950–1960s. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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15 pages, 3785 KiB  
Article
Integrated Water Vapor during Rain and Rain-Free Conditions above the Swiss Plateau
by Klemens Hocke, Leonie Bernet, Wenyue Wang, Christian Mätzler, Maxime Hervo and Alexander Haefele
Climate 2021, 9(7), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9070105 - 25 Jun 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3022
Abstract
Water vapor column density, or vertically-integrated water vapor (IWV), is monitored by ground-based microwave radiometers (MWR) and ground-based receivers of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). For rain periods, the retrieval of IWV from GNSS Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) neglects the atmospheric propagation [...] Read more.
Water vapor column density, or vertically-integrated water vapor (IWV), is monitored by ground-based microwave radiometers (MWR) and ground-based receivers of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). For rain periods, the retrieval of IWV from GNSS Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) neglects the atmospheric propagation delay of the GNSS signal by rain droplets. Similarly, it is difficult for ground-based dual-frequency single-polarisation microwave radiometers to separate the microwave emission of water vapor and cloud droplets from the rather strong microwave emission of rain. For ground-based microwave radiometry at Bern (Switzerland), we take the approach that IWV during rain is derived from linearly interpolated opacities before and after the rain period. The intermittent rain periods often appear as spikes in the time series of integrated liquid water (ILW) and are indicated by ILW ≥ 0.4 mm. In the present study, we assume that IWV measurements from radiosondes are not affected by rain. We intercompare the climatologies of IWV(rain), IWV(no rain), and IWV(all) obtained by radiosonde, ground-based GNSS atmosphere sounding, ground-based MWR, and ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) at Payerne and Bern in Switzerland. In all seasons, IWV(rain) is 3.75 to 5.94 mm greater than IWV(no rain). The mean IWV differences between GNSS and radiosonde at Payerne are less than 0.26 mm. The datasets at Payerne show a better agreement than the datasets at Bern. However, the MWR at Bern agrees with the radiosonde at Payerne within 0.41 mm for IWV(rain) and 0.02 mm for IWV(no rain). Using the GNSS and rain gauge measurements at Payerne, we find that IWV(rain) increases with increase of the precipitation rate during summer as well as during winter. IWV(rain) above the Swiss Plateau is quite well estimated by GNSS and MWR though the standard retrievals are limited or hampered during rain periods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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21 pages, 3929 KiB  
Article
Multisector Risk Identification to Assess Resilience to Flooding
by Maria do Céu Almeida, Maria João Telhado, Marco Morais and João Barreiro
Climate 2021, 9(5), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9050073 - 30 Apr 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2773
Abstract
Climate trends suggest an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events and the aggravation of existing conditions in terms of flooding in urban areas. In coastal areas, conditions are aggravated by coexistence with coastal overtopping. Flood risk control is complex, and the [...] Read more.
Climate trends suggest an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events and the aggravation of existing conditions in terms of flooding in urban areas. In coastal areas, conditions are aggravated by coexistence with coastal overtopping. Flood risk control is complex, and the interdependencies among the services and sectors in urban areas imply the need for adoption of approaches that embrace the interplay between service providers to ensure critical urban functions. Flooding incorporates several hazards. Assessment of resilience to multiple hazards in complex environments benefits from integrated and multi-sectoral approaches. A common constraint resides in the limited data and tools available for undertaking these complex assessments. This paper proposes a risk-based methodology to assess urban areas’ resilience to flooding by addressing sectors’ interdependencies in a context of limited data and ready-to-use tools. Multisector flood risk identification is pursued with the support of a geographic information system and is applied to Lisbon with a focus on the cascading effects of drainage system failures on buildings, populations, mobility, waste management, and electricity supply. The results demonstrate the potential for combining data and knowledge from different sources with dual modelling approaches, thus allowing one to obtain trends of exposure and vulnerability to flooding for current and climate change scenarios. This methodology facilitates dialogue among stakeholders and decision levels by contributing to capacity building, and it contributes to sustainable development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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11 pages, 3286 KiB  
Article
Impact of the Strong Downwelling (Upwelling) on Small Pelagic Fish Production during the 2016 (2019) Negative (Positive) Indian Ocean Dipole Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean off Java
by Jonson Lumban-Gaol, Eko Siswanto, Kedarnath Mahapatra, Nyoman Metta Nyanakumara Natih, I Wayan Nurjaya, Mochamad Tri Hartanto, Erwin Maulana, Luky Adrianto, Herlambang Aulia Rachman, Takahiro Osawa, Berri Miraz Kholipah Rahman and Arik Permana
Climate 2021, 9(2), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020029 - 2 Feb 2021
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 4358
Abstract
Although researchers have investigated the impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases on human lives, only a few have examined such impacts on fisheries. In this study, we analyzed the influence of negative (positive) IOD phases on chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations as an [...] Read more.
Although researchers have investigated the impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases on human lives, only a few have examined such impacts on fisheries. In this study, we analyzed the influence of negative (positive) IOD phases on chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations as an indicator of phytoplankton biomass and small pelagic fish production in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java. We also conducted field surveys in the EIO off Palabuhanratu Bay at the peak (October) and the end (December) of the 2019 positive IOD phase. Our findings show that the Chl-a concentration had a strong and robust association with the 2016 (2019) negative (positive) IOD phases. The negative (positive) anomalous Chl-a concentration in the EIO off Java associated with the negative (positive) IOD phase induced strong downwelling (upwelling), leading to the preponderant decrease (increase) in small pelagic fish production in the EIO off Java. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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20 pages, 3682 KiB  
Article
Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over West Africa under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios: Results from CORDEX RCMs
by Obed M. Ogega, Benjamin A. Gyampoh and Malcolm N. Mistry
Climate 2020, 8(12), 143; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8120143 - 6 Dec 2020
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3748
Abstract
This study assessed the performance of 24 simulations, from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), in representing spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation over West Africa, compared to observations. The top five performing RCM simulations were used [...] Read more.
This study assessed the performance of 24 simulations, from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), in representing spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation over West Africa, compared to observations. The top five performing RCM simulations were used to assess future precipitation changes over West Africa, under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs), following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The performance evaluation and future change assessment were done using a set of seven ‘descriptors’ of West African precipitation namely the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the consecutive wet days (CWD), the number of wet days index (R1MM), the number of wet days with moderate and heavy intensity precipitation (R10MM and R30MM, respectively), and annual and June to September daily mean precipitation (ANN and JJAS, respectively). The performance assessment and future change outlook were done for the CORDEX–Africa subdomains of north West Africa (WA-N), south West Africa (WA-S), and a combination of the two subdomains. While the performance of RCM runs was descriptor- and subregion- specific, five model runs emerged as top performers in representing precipitation characteristics over both WA-N and WA-S. The five model runs are CCLM4 forced by ICHEC-EC-EARTH (r12i1p1), RCA4 forced by CCCma-CanESM2 (r1i1p1), RACMO22T forced by MOHC-HadGEM2-ES (r1i1p1), and the ensemble means of simulations made by CCLM4 and RACMO22T. All precipitation descriptors recorded a reduction under the two warming levels, except the SDII which recorded an increase. Unlike the WA-N that showed less frequency and more intense precipitation, the WA-S showed increased frequency and intensity. Given the potential impact that these projected changes may have on West Africa’s socioeconomic activities, adjustments in investment may be required to take advantage of (and enhance system resilience against damage that may result from) the potential changes in precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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20 pages, 6071 KiB  
Article
Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA
by Manashi Paul, Sijal Dangol, Vitaly Kholodovsky, Amy R. Sapkota, Masoud Negahban-Azar and Stephanie Lansing
Climate 2020, 8(12), 139; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8120139 - 25 Nov 2020
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 5040
Abstract
Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States [...] Read more.
Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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18 pages, 3229 KiB  
Article
Climatic Trends in Different Bioclimatic Zones in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal
by Dol Raj Luitel, Pramod K. Jha, Mohan Siwakoti, Madan Lall Shrestha and Rangaswamy Munniappan
Climate 2020, 8(11), 136; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8110136 - 20 Nov 2020
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 4363
Abstract
The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones [...] Read more.
The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970–2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 °C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999–2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 °C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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18 pages, 4232 KiB  
Article
Ecological Niche Models Reveal Climate Change Effect on Biogeographical Regions: The Iberian Peninsula as a Case Study
by Diana Sousa-Guedes, Salvador Arenas-Castro and Neftalí Sillero
Climate 2020, 8(3), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8030042 - 13 Mar 2020
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 7084
Abstract
How species are distributed on Earth depends largely on climate factors. Whenever these environmental conditions change, species tend to shift their distributions to reach more favourable conditions. Distinct sets of species similarly distributed (i.e., chorotypes) occur in biogeographical regions with homogeneous environmental conditions. [...] Read more.
How species are distributed on Earth depends largely on climate factors. Whenever these environmental conditions change, species tend to shift their distributions to reach more favourable conditions. Distinct sets of species similarly distributed (i.e., chorotypes) occur in biogeographical regions with homogeneous environmental conditions. Here, we analysed whether biogeographical regions are unstable over time (from the past to the future). We modelled the realised niche of amphibians and reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula in the present, and several past and future climate scenarios. Then, we used Jaccard’s index and the unweighted pair group method (UPGMA) to define the biogeographical regions. Our results suggest that the biogeographical regions of Iberian amphibians and reptiles changed greatly over time, due to the climatic changes between periods. Biogeographical regions composed of species with Atlantic affinities changed particularly, overall gaining suitable areas in past colder periods and losing suitable areas in warmer periods. The areas of refugia for amphibians over time corresponded to the most humid regions (north-west of the peninsula), while the most important areas for reptiles occur in the south and on the Atlantic coast. The identification of biogeographical patterns considering past climate changes is essential to better apply conservation measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)
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