Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (7 March 2023) | Viewed by 4996

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, CEDEX BP17, 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
Interests: statistics of extremes; risk; multi-hazard; compound effect; aggregation

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Guest Editor
U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL), Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA
Interests: coastal storm hazards; probabilistic hazard analysis; flood risk assessment; coastal-inland compound flooding; extreme storm climatology; climate change; stochastic engineering design

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Guest Editor
EDF/R&D 7 boulevard Gaspard Monge, 91120 Palaiseau, France
Interests: climate sciences; weather and climate forecasts; climate change impact; natural hazards characterization

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

It is commonly known today that weather and climate extremes are at the top of the list of global risks in terms of their likelihood and their impact on both the environment and human activity. Weather and climate variables such as temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure are drivers for hazards such as floods, tropical and extratropical cyclones, heat spells, droughts and fires, etc. The extreme state can be due to a single variable, but in some—if not most—cases, it is the result of a combination of variables, not all of which are necessarily extreme. Here, the combination of events/hazards that lead to an extreme impact is referred to as a compound event/multi-hazard. It is therefore useful to examine the safety of strategic structures and facilities based on a multi-hazard approach, considering the extreme events the structures and facilities could be subjected to during their lifetime. The probabilistic multi-hazard assessment of the risk is therefore a key issue in structural and environmental safety.

The overall aim of this Special Issue is to investigate and bring together the most recent research studies and models focused on multi-hazard and compound weather events (e.g., coastal–fluvial–pluvial floods, heat spells–droughts–fires, etc.).

Obviously, the impact of climate change and variability makes this especially challenging. The warming observed over the past few decades is unprecedented in climate records all over the world and some recent observational studies point to increasing trends in weather mean and extreme events, while projections seem to indicate that the frequency, intensity and duration of climate and hydrometeorological hazards will increase in the future.

Research, applications, technology, and innovation in the field of weather and climate multi-hazards are therefore needed now more than ever to mitigate and solve this issue. For this Special Issue, we invite hydrologists and scientists working in climatology hydrometeorology to contribute original research articles, as well as reviews, relating to extreme weather and climate events in a multi-hazard framework. This Special Issue aims to gather contributions in the areas of understanding and modeling the compound events. Submissions are encouraged to cover a wide range of topics, which may include (but are not limited to) the following:

  1. Extreme temperatures and heat spells;
  2. Droughts;
  3. Coastal, fluvial and pluvial floods;
  4. Combining surges and waves to characterize coastal risks;
  5. High wind.

Dr. Yasser Hamdi
Dr. Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo
Dr. Sylvie Parey
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • weather and climate extremes
  • compound event
  • multi-hazard
  • climate change

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 11785 KiB  
Article
A Bivariate Nonstationary Extreme Values Analysis of Skew Surge and Significant Wave Height in the English Channel
by Antoine Chapon and Yasser Hamdi
Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1795; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111795 - 30 Oct 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1150
Abstract
Coastal flooding compound events can be caused by climate-driven extremes of storm surges and waves. To assess the risk associated with these events in the context of climate variability, the bivariate extremes of skew surge (S) and significant wave height (HS) [...] Read more.
Coastal flooding compound events can be caused by climate-driven extremes of storm surges and waves. To assess the risk associated with these events in the context of climate variability, the bivariate extremes of skew surge (S) and significant wave height (HS) are modeled in a nonstationary framework using physical atmospheric/oceanic parameters as covariates (atmospheric pressure, wind speed and sea surface temperature). This bivariate nonstationary distribution is modeled using a threshold-based approach for the margins of S and HS and a dynamic copula for their dependence structure. Among the covariates considered, atmospheric pressure and related wind speed are primary forcings for the margins of S and HS, but temperature is the main positive forcing of their dependence. This latter relation implies an increasing risk of compound events of S and HS for the studied site in the context of increasing global temperature. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment)
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13 pages, 1671 KiB  
Article
Multi-Hazard Assessment of a Flood Protection Levee
by Mbarka Selmi, Yasser Hamdi and Denis Moiriat
Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1741; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101741 - 21 Oct 2022
Viewed by 1434
Abstract
Earthquake-induced liquefaction is one of the main causes of levee breaches that can threaten human life and property. Conventionally, liquefaction hazard has been assessed in terms of the factor of safety FoS against liquefaction which ignores the potential variability of groundwater [...] Read more.
Earthquake-induced liquefaction is one of the main causes of levee breaches that can threaten human life and property. Conventionally, liquefaction hazard has been assessed in terms of the factor of safety FoS against liquefaction which ignores the potential variability of groundwater table (GWT) due to precipitation events. A probabilistic methodology, taking into account these GWT variations over time, is therefore presented in this study to assess the liquefaction hazard of an earthen flood protection levee. A frequency analysis based on the Annual Maxima/Generalised Extreme Value (AM/GEV) approach is first used to characterize the distribution of GWT extreme values. The CPT-based method is then applied with the provided GWT scenarios to predict liquefaction and display the hazard curves. Assuming a single constant GWT estimate during an earthquake revealed a certain liquefaction hazard within a sandy layer. Considering GWT variations during earthquakes showed, however, that liquefaction is unlikely to occur with an FoS threshold set at 1.0. These findings highlight: (1) the conservatism of the conventional approach that overestimates the liquefaction hazard, (2) the importance of the proposed probabilistic approach as a complementary tool for more reliable decision-making, and (3) the dependency of liquefaction hazard predictions on the degree of uncertainty in GWT estimates and FoS threshold. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment)
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21 pages, 4915 KiB  
Article
Versatile Modelling of Extreme Surges in Connection with Large-Scale Circulation Drivers
by Lisa Baulon, Emma Imen Turki, Nicolas Massei, Gaël André, Yann Ferret and Nicolas Pouvreau
Atmosphere 2022, 13(5), 850; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050850 - 23 May 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1571
Abstract
In this article, we investigate the dependence of extreme surges on the North Atlantic weather regime variability across different timescales using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian blocking (SCAND) indices. The analysis was done using time series of surges along the North [...] Read more.
In this article, we investigate the dependence of extreme surges on the North Atlantic weather regime variability across different timescales using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian blocking (SCAND) indices. The analysis was done using time series of surges along the North French Coast, covering long time periods (43 to 172 years of data). Time series that exhibited gaps were filled using linear interpolation to allow spectral analyses to be conducted. First, a continuous wavelet analysis on monthly maxima surges in the North French Coast was conducted to identify the multi-timescale variability. Second, a wavelet coherence analysis and maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) were used to study the timescale-dependent relationships between maxima surges and NAO or SCAND. Finally, NAO and SCAND were tested as physical covariates for a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to fit monthly maxima surge series. Specific low-frequency variabilities characterizing these indices (extracted using MODWT) were also used as covariates to determine whether such specific variabilities would allow for even better GEV fitting. The results reveal common multi-annual timescales of variability between monthly maxima surge time series along the North French coasts: ~2–3 years, ~5–7 years, and ~12–17 years. These modes of variability were found to be mainly induced by the NAO and the SCAND. We identified a greater influence of the NAO on the monthly maxima surges of the westernmost stations (Brest, Cherbourg, Le Havre), while the SCAND showed a greater influence on the northernmost station (Dunkirk). This shows that the physical climate effects at multi-annual scales are manifested differently between the Atlantic/English Channel and the North Sea regions influenced by NAO and SCAND, respectively. Finally, the introduction of these two climate indices was found to clearly enhance GEV models as well as a few timescales of these indices. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment)
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