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Toward Better Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal...
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Toward Better Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal for Agricultural Sectors

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Biometeorology and Bioclimatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (1 March 2022) | Viewed by 7220

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Eunjin Han

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Guest Editor
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, NY 10027, USA
Interests: climate risk management; agriculture; decision support tool; seasonal and subseasonal climate forecast
Dr. Carlo Montes

E-Mail
Guest Editor
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Carretera México-Veracruz km 45, El Batán, Texcoco 56237, México
Interests: monsoons; climate variability

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Rainfed agricultural systems over monsoon regions strongly depend on rainfall during the monsoon season, but also on the onset and withdrawal timing. The complexity of monsoon systems and the high interannual variability of the onset and withdrawal dates hinder the development of reliable services in terms of operational monsoon timing monitoring and forecasting. Consequently, it is still difficult for farming communities to have information for decision-making regarding optimal planting dates, cultivar selection, and insurance to deal with critical yield loss and planning logistics before harvesting. This Special Issue aims to provide advances in the understanding of monsoon systems and their characteristics as well as the improvement of forecasting methodologies in the context of agricultural applications. Some potential topics include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Methods to detect or define monsoon onset/withdrawal dates at multiple scales
  • New findings on monsoon characteristics from historical data analysis and implication for agriculture
  • Methodologies for forecasting monsoon onset/withdrawal dates
  • Agricultural and/or economic impacts of interannual variability in monsoon features
  • Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector to cope with interannual variability of monsoon onset/withdrawal dates

Dr. Eunjin Han
Dr. Carlo Montes
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • agricultural meteorology
  • onset and withdrawal of rainy season
  • climate variability
  • agricultural impact of monsoon characteristics
  • predictability of monsoon onset and demise

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

14 pages, 5336 KiB  
Article
Planting Rice at Monsoon Onset Could Mitigate the Impact of Temperature Stress on Rice–Wheat Systems of Bihar, India
by Carlo Montes, Anton Urfels, Eunjin Han and Balwinder-Singh
Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010040 - 26 Dec 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3519
Abstract
The rice–wheat rotation is the dominant cropping system in Bihar, where food security of the rural population depends heavily on the production of rice and wheat. In Bihar, farmers plant rice after the first significant rains, and climatic shocks induced by low temperatures [...] Read more.
The rice–wheat rotation is the dominant cropping system in Bihar, where food security of the rural population depends heavily on the production of rice and wheat. In Bihar, farmers plant rice after the first significant rains, and climatic shocks induced by low temperatures and terminal heat stress at the end of the corresponding season can significantly affect rice and wheat yields. The present work evaluates the benefit of using an earlier date for planting rice, following the monsoon onset, in reducing thermal stress on rice–wheat systems. High-resolution gridded crop simulations using the APSIM model were performed to simulate potential yields using the monsoon onset and the farmers’ practice as planting dates. The monsoon onset was calculated using an agronomic definition, and farmers’ practice dates were estimated using satellite data. The results were analyzed in terms of planting dates, yields, and the incidence of temperature stress on rice and wheat by means of the APSIM yields limiting factors. The results show that the rice planting and harvest dates using the monsoon onset are, in general, 20–30 days earlier, which translates into higher and more stable potential yields, which can be up to 50% higher in wheat and 29% in rice. The incidence of thermal stress can be, on average, 12% lower in rice and 25% in wheat. These results can help design mitigation strategies for the impacts of temperature-induced shock events in the context of the advances in sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, targeting climate services for farmers in Bihar. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toward Better Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal for Agricultural Sectors)
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18 pages, 7166 KiB  
Article
Evaluating Agronomic Onset Definitions in Senegal through Crop Simulation Modeling
by Eunjin Han, Adama Faye, Mbaye Diop, Bohar Singh, Komla Kyky Ganyo and Walter Baethgen
Atmosphere 2022, 13(12), 2122; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122122 - 17 Dec 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2482
Abstract
Rainfed agriculture in Senegal is heavily affected by weather-related risks, particularly timing of start/end of the rainy season. For climate services in agriculture, the National Meteorological Agency (ANACIM) of Senegal has defined an onset of rainy season based on the rainfall. In the [...] Read more.
Rainfed agriculture in Senegal is heavily affected by weather-related risks, particularly timing of start/end of the rainy season. For climate services in agriculture, the National Meteorological Agency (ANACIM) of Senegal has defined an onset of rainy season based on the rainfall. In the field, however, farmers do not necessarily follow the ANACIM’s onset definition. To close the gap between the parallel efforts by a climate information producer (i.e., ANACIM) and its actual users in agriculture (e.g., farmers), it is desirable to understand how the currently available onset definitions are linked to the yield of specific crops. In this study, we evaluated multiple onset definitions, including rainfall-based and soil-moisture-based ones, in terms of their utility in sorghum production using the DSSAT–Sorghum model. The results show that rainfall-based definitions are highly variable year to year, and their delayed onset estimation could cause missed opportunities for higher yields with earlier planting. Overall, soil-moisture-based onset dates determined by a crop simulation model produced yield distributions closer to the ones by semi-optimal planting dates than the other definitions, except in a relatively wet southern location. The simulated yields, particularly based on the ANACIM’s onset definition, showed statistically significant differences from the semi-optimal yields for a range of percentiles (25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th) and the means of the yield distributions in three locations. The results emphasize that having a good definition and skillful forecasts of onset is critical to improving the management of risks of crop production in Senegal. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toward Better Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal for Agricultural Sectors)
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