Vulnerability to Climate- and Weather-Related Extremes in the Mediterranean: Past, Present, and Future

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (22 May 2026) | Viewed by 1257

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
1. Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
2. Accademia Mediterranea Euracea di Scienze, Lettere e Arti, Termini Imerese, Palermo, Italy
Interests: historical climatology; climate change and variability; anthopogenic geomorphology; urban geology

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Guest Editor
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
Interests: morphotectonics; landslides process analysis; urban geomorphology

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The Mediterranean Sea, between Africa and Eurasia, is particularly prone to extreme weather and climate events, to the extent that it is considered a "hotspot" in this regard. These extreme events have a significant impact on both natural systems and anthropogenic activities. To reliably manage and mitigate the risks arising from such occurrences, it is essential to study past and present extreme events to develop appropriate predictive models for their potential future impacts.

Recently, notable upward trends in many climate indicators, as well as significant increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, have been observed using a wide variety of datasets and methodologies. These trends are key features of global climate change and represent some of the most serious challenges facing humanity.

This Special Issue invites potential contributors to submit original research papers that highlight important scientific findings related to the multifaceted Mediterranean region and focus on climate- and weather-related extreme events. These include cold/heat waves, extreme precipitation, flash floods, storms, rain-induced landslides, droughts, and famines.

We welcome a broad perspective that explores various aspects of extreme hydrometeorological events, including analyses of flood frequencies and trends, as well as hydrological assessments of droughts.

We are particularly interested in studies that address the current status and emerging challenges in the Mediterranean region, which provide a deeper understanding of these extreme events. This understanding is crucial for developing effective management and mitigation strategies, as well as for examining how these catastrophic events influence local and regional climate dynamics.

Contributions that utilize interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches are strongly encouraged. We welcome studies that integrate modern technologies for monitoring and forecasting extreme events, such as remote sensing and satellite data, and that investigate their characteristics and associated processes. Through an application of various methodologies, we aim to improve our understanding of the atmospheric factors underlying extreme weather events and their impacts, thus minimizing potential risks and contributing to the careful and planned management of climate change adaptation strategies.

Dr. Antonio Contino
Prof. Dr. Cipriano Di Maggio
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • climate variabilities and changes
  • extreme weather and climate-related natural vulnerabilities and hazards
  • projected changes in climate extremes
  • adaptation strategies
  •  Mediterranean

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

28 pages, 12700 KB  
Article
Enhancing Drought Prediction in Semi-Arid Climates: A Synthetic Data and Neural Network Approach Applied to Karaman Region, Turkey
by Akin Duvan and Sadik Alper Yildizel
Atmosphere 2026, 17(2), 172; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020172 - 6 Feb 2026
Viewed by 667
Abstract
This study develops a practical framework for forecasting long-term drought conditions in Karaman Province, a semi-arid region of Turkey, where accurate climate information is vital for water planning and agriculture. Since the area has limited rainfall records and strong year-to-year fluctuations, traditional modeling [...] Read more.
This study develops a practical framework for forecasting long-term drought conditions in Karaman Province, a semi-arid region of Turkey, where accurate climate information is vital for water planning and agriculture. Since the area has limited rainfall records and strong year-to-year fluctuations, traditional modeling approaches often fall short. To better capture local conditions, drought intensity was defined using a simple monthly wetness anomaly measure based directly on precipitation; here, positive values indicate wetter months and negative values indicate drier ones. This makes the method suitable for regions where detailed hydrological data are scarce. Rainfall observations from 1965 to 2011 were expanded using a combination of kernel density estimation and Cholesky-based correlation reconstruction. These steps preserved the main statistical and temporal patterns of the original data while increasing sample diversity. The enriched dataset was then used to train artificial neural networks to predict both precipitation and drought intensity. The models reached R2 values of 0.76 and 0.72, with mean absolute errors of 12.8 mm and 28.4%, which represents an improvement of roughly 10–15% over traditional statistical methods. They were also able to capture the seasonal and year-to-year variability that strongly affects drought conditions in the region. To understand what drives the predictions, the model was examined with LIME, which consistently highlighted lagged rainfall and seasonal indicators as the most influential inputs. A walk-forward validation approach was also used to mimic real forecasting conditions and demonstrated that the model remains stable when projecting into the future. Overall, the proposed framework offers a reliable and practical basis for early-warning efforts and drought-management strategies in semi-arid regions like Karaman. Full article
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