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Atmosphere
Special Issues
Convection and Its Impact on Weather
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Convection and Its Impact on Weather

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 July 2019) | Viewed by 25769

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Peter Bechtold

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Interests: convection; numerical weather prediction; boundary-layer clouds and turbulence; non-orographic gravity waves

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Atmosphere dedicates this Special Issue to convection and its impact on weather. Convection is one of the most exciting and powerful phenomena in weather, particularly when it manifests in convective storms bearing strong winds, heavy rain, lightning, and hail. Convection is also the dominant vertical transport process in the atmosphere for water vapor and chemical tracers, and it accounts for roughly 75% of the latent heat released in the tropics. This heat is partly converted into the vertical overturning circulations of the Hadley and Walker cells and into horizontal motions, with tropical cyclones as prominent examples. The impact of convection is truly global, not only in the form of convectively coupled equatorial waves but also through teleconnections of tropical modes like the Madden–Julian oscillation with middle latitude circulation patterns.

Convection is probably the most challenging and uncertain process in numerical weather prediction. During the last 50 years, a lot of effort has gone into the development of convection parametrizations covering shallow boundary-layer convection, including cumulus and stratocumulus clouds, deep precipitating convection, and elevated convection in the form of altocumulus. However, processes such as the diurnal cycle of convection, the propagation of mesoscale convective systems, the inland penetration of wintry showers over warmer waters, and the momentum transport by convection have proven to be difficult to represent. With the ever increasing computational ressources, regional and global deep convection permitting simulations have become possible. Together with advances in ensemble predictions and data assimilation methods for convective phenomena assimilating new data from Doppler wind lidar, lightning data, microphysical observations,  as well as infrared and microwave satellite radiances, we will further improve the analysis of the atmospheric state and the role of convection and, eventually, improve its predictions.

We invite you to contribute articles to this Special Issue by reporting on observational, numerical, and analytical studies of convection in weather and weather forecasting including phenomena such as mesoscale convective systems, middle latitude convection in frontal systems and polar lows, as well as tropical cyclones and large-scale tropical modes and their teleconnections. Articles discussing and quantifying processes such as the atmospheric heat engine, the diurnal cycle of convection, convective momentum transport, tracer transport in the troposphere and into the stratosphere, as well as microphysical processes in convective clouds are also encouraged. Finally, we encourage articles that quantify the growth of convective disturbances and/or improve their predictability.

Dr. Peter Bechtold
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • convective processes and severe weather
  • convective-scale observations
  • analysis and theory of convection in larger-scale circulation
  • numerical weather prediction and convection parametrizatio

Published Papers (8 papers)

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Editorial

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2 pages, 155 KiB  
Editorial
Convection and Its Impact on Weather
by Peter Bechtold
Atmosphere 2021, 12(4), 437; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040437 - 29 Mar 2021
Viewed by 1362
Abstract
This Special Issue of Atmosphere is entitled “Convection and its impact on weather comprises seven original papers” [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)

Research

Jump to: Editorial

32 pages, 12917 KiB  
Article
The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems
by David B. Parsons, Samuel P. Lillo, Christopher P. Rattray, Peter Bechtold, Mark J. Rodwell and Connor M. Bruce
Atmosphere 2019, 10(11), 681; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681 - 06 Nov 2019
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3543
Abstract
Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for [...] Read more.
Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce their occurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe in association with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains. Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convection at Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occur between long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossby wave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstream as an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in some cases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organized deep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems that produce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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18 pages, 2880 KiB  
Article
Relating Convection to GCM Grid-Scale Fields Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during MC3E Field Experiment
by Rui Cheng and Guang J. Zhang
Atmosphere 2019, 10(9), 523; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090523 - 05 Sep 2019
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2637
Abstract
In this study, a WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used as a cloud-resolving model to simulate a squall line observed on 20 May 2011 in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States. The model output is then used to [...] Read more.
In this study, a WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used as a cloud-resolving model to simulate a squall line observed on 20 May 2011 in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States. The model output is then used to examine the relationships between convective precipitation and coarse-grained variables averaged over a range of subdomain sizes equivalent to various global climate model horizontal resolutions. The objective is to determine to what extent convection within the subdomains can be related to these “large-scale” variables, thus that they can potentially serve as closure in convective parameterization. Results show that convective precipitation is well correlated with the vertical velocity at 500 hPa, column integrated moisture convergence and CAPE change due to large-scale advective forcing (dCAPE) for various subdomain sizes, but the correlation decreases with decreasing subdomain size. dCAPE leads convective precipitation for all subdomain sizes examined; however, the lead time decreases with decreasing subdomain size. Moisture convergence leads convective precipitation for subdomain sizes greater than 32 km but has no lead time for smaller subdomain sizes. Mid-tropospheric vertical velocity has no lead time or slightly lags convective precipitation. The lead/lag composite analysis with respect to maximum precipitation time indicates that peaks of large-scale variables increase with decreasing subdomain size. The peaks of 500 hPa vertical velocity and column integrated moisture convergence occur at the same time as maximum precipitation, but maximum dCAPE leads maximum precipitation by twelve minutes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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18 pages, 3139 KiB  
Article
Different Representation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterizing NWP Models and Its Implications for Large-Scale Forecast Evolution
by Karsten Peters, Cathy Hohenegger and Daniel Klocke
Atmosphere 2019, 10(9), 503; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090503 - 27 Aug 2019
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3487
Abstract
Representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their multi-scale interaction with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics is still a major challenge in state-of-the-art global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This results in potentially defective forecasts of synoptic-scale dynamics in regions of high MCS activity. Here, [...] Read more.
Representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their multi-scale interaction with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics is still a major challenge in state-of-the-art global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This results in potentially defective forecasts of synoptic-scale dynamics in regions of high MCS activity. Here, we quantify this error by comparing simulations performed with a very large-domain, convection-permitting NWP model to two operational global NWP models relying on parameterized convection. We use one month’s worth of daily forecasts over Western Africa and focus on land regions only. The convection-permitting model matches remarkably well the statistics of westward-propagating MCSs compared to observations, while the convection-parameterizing NWP models misrepresent them. The difference in the representation of MCSs in the different models leads to measurably different synoptic-scale forecast evolution as visible in the wind fields at both 850 and 650 hPa, resulting in forecast differences compared to the operational global NWP models. This is quantified by computing the correlation between the differences and the number of MCSs: the larger the number of MCSs, the larger the difference. This fits the expectation from theory on MCS–mean flow interaction. Here, we show that this effect is strong enough to affect daily limited-area forecasts on very large domains. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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29 pages, 19158 KiB  
Article
Analysis of a Case of Supercellular Convection over Bulgaria: Observations and Numerical Simulations
by Hristo G. Chipilski, Ivan Tsonevsky, Stefan Georgiev, Tsvetelina Dimitrova, Lilia Bocheva and Xuguang Wang
Atmosphere 2019, 10(9), 486; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090486 - 22 Aug 2019
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4479
Abstract
A long-lived supercell developed in Northwest Bulgaria on 15 May 2018 and inflicted widespread damage along its track. The first part of this article presents a detailed overview of the observed storm evolution. Doppler radar observations reveal that the storm acquired typical supercellular [...] Read more.
A long-lived supercell developed in Northwest Bulgaria on 15 May 2018 and inflicted widespread damage along its track. The first part of this article presents a detailed overview of the observed storm evolution. Doppler radar observations reveal that the storm acquired typical supercellular signatures and maintained reflectivity values in excess of 63 dBZ for more than 4 h. The thunderstorm was also analyzed through lightning observations that highlighted important characteristics of the overall supercell dynamics. In its second part, the study investigates the predictability of the severe weather outbreak. In the medium forecast ranges, the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble indicated the presence of favorable conditions for the development of deep moist convection 4 days prior to the event. A set of three convection-allowing ensemble simulations also demonstrated that the practical predictability of the supercell was approximately 12 h, which is considerably higher than some previously reported estimates. Nevertheless, the skill of the convective forecasts appears to be limited by the presence of typical model errors, such as the timing of convection initiation and the development of spurious convective activity. The relevance of these errors to the optimal ensemble size and to the design of future convection-allowing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is further discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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20 pages, 5779 KiB  
Article
Simulations of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation Using Climate Forecast System Version 2: Insight for Horizontal Resolution and Moist Processes Parameterization
by Snehlata Tirkey, P. Mukhopadhyay, R. Phani Murali Krishna, Ashish Dhakate and Kiran Salunke
Atmosphere 2019, 10(8), 429; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080429 - 26 Jul 2019
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2809
Abstract
In the present study, we analyze the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model in three resolutions, T62, T126, and T382. We evaluated the performance of all three resolutions of CFSv2 in simulating the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) of the Indian summer monsoon [...] Read more.
In the present study, we analyze the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model in three resolutions, T62, T126, and T382. We evaluated the performance of all three resolutions of CFSv2 in simulating the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by analyzing a suite of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters. Results reveal a slower northward propagation of MISO in all models with the characteristic northwest–southeast tilted rain band missing over India. The anomalous moisture convergence and vorticity were collocated with the convection center instead of being northwards. This affected the northward propagation of MISO. The easterly shear to the north of the equator was better simulated by the coarser resolution models than CFS T382. The low level specific humidity showed improvement only in CFS T382 until ~15° N. The analyses of the vertical profiles of moisture and its relation to rainfall revealed that all CFSv2 resolutions had a lower level of moisture in the lower level (< 850 hPa) and a drier level above. This eventually hampered the growth of deep convection in the model. These model shortcomings indicate a possible need of improvement in moist process parameterization in the model in tune with the increase in resolution. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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18 pages, 12772 KiB  
Article
Impact of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillations on the Heavy Rainfall Events in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu Season
by Wan-Ru Huang, Pin-Yi Liu, Jen-Her Chen and Liping Deng
Atmosphere 2019, 10(4), 205; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10040205 - 18 Apr 2019
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3591
Abstract
During May and June (the Meiyu season) of 2017, Taiwan was affected by three heavy frontal rainfall events, which led to large economic losses. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, this study investigates the impact of boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillations (BSISOs, including a [...] Read more.
During May and June (the Meiyu season) of 2017, Taiwan was affected by three heavy frontal rainfall events, which led to large economic losses. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, this study investigates the impact of boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillations (BSISOs, including a 30–60 day ISO mode named BSISO1 and a 10–30 day ISO mode named BSISO2) on the heavy rainfall events in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu season. Our examinations show that BSISO2 is more important than BSISO1 in determining the formation of heavy rainfall events in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu season. The heavy rainfall events generally formed in Taiwan at phases 4–6 of BSISO2, when the enhanced southwesterly wind and moisture flux convergence center propagate northward into the Taiwan area. In addition, we examined the forecast rainfall data (at lead times of one day to 16 days) obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEPgfs) and the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Global Forecast System (CWBgfs). Our results show that the better the model’s capability in forecasting the BSISO2 index is, the better the model’s capability in forecasting the timing of rainfall formation in Taiwan during the 2017 Meiyu season is. These findings highlight the importance of BSISO2 in affecting the rainfall characteristics in East Asia during the Meiyu season. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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14 pages, 2046 KiB  
Article
Robust Nocturnal and Early Morning Summer Rainfall Peaks over Continental East Asia in a Global Multiscale Modeling Framework
by Yi Zhang, Haoming Chen and Dan Wang
Atmosphere 2019, 10(2), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10020053 - 29 Jan 2019
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3002
Abstract
The diurnal cycle of convection and precipitation is an important atmospheric feature. It also poses a great challenge to global numerical atmospheric modeling. Over continental East Asia, most global models cannot well capture the nocturnal and early morning peaks of summer rainfall. This [...] Read more.
The diurnal cycle of convection and precipitation is an important atmospheric feature. It also poses a great challenge to global numerical atmospheric modeling. Over continental East Asia, most global models cannot well capture the nocturnal and early morning peaks of summer rainfall. This problem may lead to dry biases and limit the modeling skills. This study investigates this problem using a global multiscale modeling framework (Super-Parameterized CAM5; SPCAM5). The nocturnal and early morning peaks, which are almost absent in CAM5 and a coarser-resolution SPCAM5, can be successfully captured by SPCAM5 with a moderate increase in the horizontal resolution. On the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau, SPCAM5 generates robust eastward propagating rainfall signals, which correspond to the moving convective systems, as revealed by the heating and drying profiles. Over the eastern plain of China, the early morning peaks become more evident, corresponding to a stratiform-type heating structure in the midlevel. A sensitivity experiment with altered grid-scale forcing also suggests the important preconditioning role of the vertical moisture advection in regulating the early morning peaks. These results highlight the added value of representing multiscale processes to the successful simulation of the diurnal cycle over continental East Asia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
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