Next Article in Journal
A 5 km Resolution Regional Climate Simulation for Central Europe: Performance in High Mountain Areas and Seasonal, Regional and Elevation-Dependent Variations
Previous Article in Journal
Dust Heterogeneous Reactions during Long-Range Transport of a Severe Dust Storm in May 2017 over East Asia
Previous Article in Special Issue
Relating Convection to GCM Grid-Scale Fields Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation of a Squall Line Observed during MC3E Field Experiment
Open AccessArticle

The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems

1
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA
2
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(11), 681; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110681
Received: 28 September 2019 / Revised: 25 October 2019 / Accepted: 31 October 2019 / Published: 6 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Convection and Its Impact on Weather)
Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce their occurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe in association with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains. Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convection at Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occur between long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossby wave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstream as an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in some cases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organized deep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems that produce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream. View Full-Text
Keywords: Rossby wave trains; meoscale convective systems; forecast busts; error growth; medium-range numerical weather prediction; convective parameterization; PECAN field campaign Rossby wave trains; meoscale convective systems; forecast busts; error growth; medium-range numerical weather prediction; convective parameterization; PECAN field campaign
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Parsons, D.B.; Lillo, S.P.; Rattray, C.P.; Bechtold, P.; Rodwell, M.J.; Bruce, C.M. The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 681.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop