Recent Advances in Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictability

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2025) | Viewed by 1827

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Interests: sub seasonal to seasonal prediction; monsoons; climate change and variability; impact based weather forecasting and warnings, extreme weather events, and flood modeling; drought risk forecasts; machine learning methods for bias correction of forecast; air pollution studies and regional and global modelling; Indian summer monsoon

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Guest Editor
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Interests: numerical weather prediction modeling; post-processing methods; machine learning techniques; climate change and climate variability; prediction of weather and climate extremes such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, cold waves, atmospheric rivers; subseasonal to seasonal predictions; monsoon dynamics; crop modeling; development of tools for climate risk management in various sectors like agriculture

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

We invite submissions to our upcoming issue, which will focus on recent advances in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. This area of research is crucial for improving medium- to long-term forecasts that bridge the gap between weather and climate prediction. We seek original papers that explore innovative methodologies, modeling techniques, and case studies aimed at enhancing our understanding of S2S predictability. Topics of interest include but are not limited to the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions, teleconnections, and data assimilation. We also encourage papers that showcase the application of artificial intelligence and machine learning in enhancing forecast accuracy and reliability across the S2S time scale. We encourage studies on Impact-based Forecasting (IbF) that explore the application of S2S predictions in decision-making processes across various sectors, such as agriculture, water management, public health, and disaster preparedness. Emphasis should be placed on translating forecast data into actionable insights. Additionally, we welcome studies discussing operational challenges and practical applications in fields like agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness. Lastly, we invite research from social science perspectives, examining the societal implications of S2S forecasts, including public perception, communication strategies, and the integration of social sciences into the development and dissemination of S2S forecasts.

This issue aims to foster interdisciplinary dialog and collaboration between atmospheric scientists, social scientists, and practitioners to enhance the utility and impact of S2S forecasts.

Submit your manuscript to contribute to this important and rapidly evolving field, helping to shape the future of predictive science and its application to real-world challenges.

Dr. Seshagiri Kolusu
Dr. Murali Nageswara Rao Malasala
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • subseasonal to seasonal (S2S)
  • numerical weather modeling
  • impact based forecasting warnings
  • post-processing methods including AI and ML
  • social science perspectives
  • multi-sectors

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

28 pages, 11993 KB  
Article
Transitions Between Circulation Regimes: The Role of Tropical Heating
by Ralph D. Getzandanner and David M. Straus
Atmosphere 2026, 17(2), 201; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020201 - 13 Feb 2026
Viewed by 279
Abstract
Four Euro-Atlantic (EA) circulation regimes are identified using cluster analysis applied to 500 hPa geopotential heights from the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis. These are the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+, NAO−), Scandinavian Blocking (SB), and the Atlantic Ridge (AR). [...] Read more.
Four Euro-Atlantic (EA) circulation regimes are identified using cluster analysis applied to 500 hPa geopotential heights from the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis. These are the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+, NAO−), Scandinavian Blocking (SB), and the Atlantic Ridge (AR). This paper studies transitions between these four regimes, the signature of tropical heating preceding these transitions, and the identification of transitions for which this forcing plays a role. The findings can further our understanding of when transitions occur. To address these questions, we examine the relationship of heating to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and possible stratospheric influences. Mid-latitude diabatic heating is also examined to determine shifts in the storm tracks. We use the ERAI reanalysis to estimate diabatic heating, streamfunction, Rossby wave activity, and stratospheric zonal winds. We find that Indian Ocean tropical heating enhances the transition from the SB regime to the NAO+ regime. In contrast, western Pacific heating seems to force transitions from all other regimes into the NAO− regime. The flux of Rossby wave activity indicates that in some transitions, mid-latitudes play a role in forcing tropical heating. The majority of the transitions examined show indications of tropically forced behavior. Less than half showed evidence that mid-latitude dynamics were the primary cause of the transition. Nearly half of the transitions appeared to be related to phases of the MJO. We also found that intensification of heating in the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic (ITCZ) plays a role. Transitions during the early and late parts of the season, along with the role of ENSO, are found to be modest factors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictability)
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