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Atmosphere
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Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate
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Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 May 2025 | Viewed by 14269

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Masoud Rostami

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Interests: extreme weather; climate modeling; climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue will aim to comprehensively delve into the multifaceted impact and intricate dynamics of extreme weather events within the context of our warming climate. It will serve as a vital platform for researchers, scientists, and experts across various disciplines to conduct in-depth investigations into the escalating frequency and heightened severity of extreme weather phenomena, encompassing heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other pertinent issues. We extend a warm invitation to interdisciplinary studies that meticulously analyze the intricate interactions among atmospheric and environmental variables and introduce groundbreaking mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our overarching goal is to foster a profound and holistic comprehension of these extreme events, thereby contributing significantly to the development of sustainable policies and practices. These policies and practices are crucial in enhancing resilience, promoting ecological balance, and safeguarding human and environmental well-being in the face of the profound and ever-evolving challenges posed by our changing climate.

Dr. Masoud Rostami
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • extreme weather
  • climate change
  • warming climate
  • adaptation strategies
  • environmental variables
  • heatwaves
  • hurricanes
  • droughts
  • resilience

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

25 pages, 8173 KiB  
Article
Advancing Heat Health Risk Assessment: Hotspot Identification of Heat Stress and Risk Across Municipalities in Algiers, Algeria
by Dyna Chourouk Zitouni, Djihed Berkouk, Mohamed Elhadi Matallah, Mohamed Akram Eddine Ben Ratmia and Shady Attia
Atmosphere 2025, 16(4), 484; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040484 - 21 Apr 2025
Viewed by 299
Abstract
With accelerating surface warming trends in urban regions, cities like Algiers are increasingly exposed to extreme heat, contributing to a growing concern over heat-related illnesses. For a comprehensive long-term assessment (2001–2023) of heat-related risks in Algiers, multi-decade satellite, meteorological, and census data were [...] Read more.
With accelerating surface warming trends in urban regions, cities like Algiers are increasingly exposed to extreme heat, contributing to a growing concern over heat-related illnesses. For a comprehensive long-term assessment (2001–2023) of heat-related risks in Algiers, multi-decade satellite, meteorological, and census data were used in this study to map and assess spatial patterns of the Heat Health Risk Index (HHRI) within the framework established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) incorporating hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was then calculated to assess thermal stress levels during the same period. Following this, the study addressed a critical research gap by coupling the HHRI and UTCI and identified hotspots using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistical analysis tool. Our findings reveal that the intensity of HHRI has increased over time since “very-low” risk areas had an outstanding decrease (93%) and a 6 °C UTCI rise over 23 years reaching the “very strong heat stress” level. The coupled index demonstrated greater and different risk areas compared to the HHRI alone, suggesting that the coupling of both indicators enhances the sensitivity of heat risk assessment. Finally, persistently identified hotspots in central and eastern regions call for localized, targeted interventions in those areas and highlight the value of remote sensing in informing policymakers and enhancing climate resilience. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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23 pages, 15722 KiB  
Article
Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwaves in China During July and August
by Jinping Liu and Mingzhe Li
Atmosphere 2025, 16(4), 434; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040434 - 8 Apr 2025
Viewed by 315
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global warming, heatwaves in China have become more frequent, posing serious risks to public health and socio-economic stability. However, existing identification methods lack precision, and the driving mechanisms of heatwaves remain unclear. This study applies the Excess Heat Factor [...] Read more.
Against the backdrop of global warming, heatwaves in China have become more frequent, posing serious risks to public health and socio-economic stability. However, existing identification methods lack precision, and the driving mechanisms of heatwaves remain unclear. This study applies the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to characterize heatwaves across China from 2013 to 2023, analyzing their spatiotemporal patterns and exploring key drivers such as atmospheric circulation and soil moisture. Key findings reveal significant regional differences: (1) Frequency and Duration—The southeastern coastal regions (e.g., the Yangtze River Delta) experience higher annual heatwave frequencies (1.75–3.5 events) but shorter durations (6.5–8.5 days). In contrast, the arid northwest has both frequent (1.5–3.5 events per year) and prolonged (8.5–14.5 days) heatwaves, while the Tibetan Plateau sees weaker and shorter events. (2) Driving Factors—Heatwaves in the Yangtze River Delta are primarily driven by an intensified subtropical high, leading to subsidence and clear-sky conditions. In Fujian, anomalous low-level winds enhance heat accumulation, while coastal areas show strong soil moisture–temperature coupling, where drier soils intensify warming. Conversely, soil moisture has a weaker influence on the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting a dominant atmospheric control. It is important to note that the EHF index used in this study does not directly account for humidity, which may limit its applicability in humid regions. Additionally, the ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis data were not systematically validated against ground observations, introducing potential uncertainties. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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22 pages, 9872 KiB  
Article
Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Brazilian Legal Amazon: A Summary of Climatological Patterns and Detected Trends
by Wanderson Luiz-Silva, Anna Carolina Fernandes Bazzanela, Claudine Pereira Dereczynski, Antonio Carlos Oscar-Júnior and Igor Pinheiro Raupp
Atmosphere 2025, 16(2), 222; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16020222 - 16 Feb 2025
Viewed by 624
Abstract
The continuous understanding of extreme weather events in the Amazon is fundamental due to the importance of this biome for the regional and planetary climate system. Climate characterization and the identification of changes in the current climate can be key findings for adaptation [...] Read more.
The continuous understanding of extreme weather events in the Amazon is fundamental due to the importance of this biome for the regional and planetary climate system. Climate characterization and the identification of changes in the current climate can be key findings for adaptation and mitigation measures. This study examined climatology and trends in 20 climate extreme indices associated with air temperature and precipitation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Daily observed data, interpolated at grid points, were analyzed from 1961 to 2020. Statistical tests were employed to determine the trend’s significance and magnitude. The results indicate that prolonged heat, hot days, and annual temperature records have become increasingly frequent in practically all of BLA over the last decades. Warm days and nights are increasing at approximately +11 days/decade. Heat waves have gone from 10 to 20 consecutive days on average in the 1960s to around 30–40 days in recent years. Indices associated with the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation show a reduction, especially in the rainiest portion of the BLA, the western sector. In the east/south region of BLA, where consecutive dry days reach 100 days/year, they continue to increase at a rate of +1.5 days/decade, a fact related to the delay at the beginning of the rainy season. These aspects deserve attention since they impact local circulation, reducing the convergence of humidity not only over the BLA but also in central-southern region of Brazil. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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19 pages, 4180 KiB  
Article
Assessment of the Drought Risk in Constanta County, Romania
by Carmen Elena Maftei, Alina Bărbulescu and Amela Osman
Atmosphere 2024, 15(11), 1281; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111281 - 25 Oct 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 806
Abstract
Drought poses a significant risk in many parts of the world, especially in regions reliant on agriculture. Evaluating this risk is an essential step in preventing and reducing its impact. In this context, we assess the drought intensity at six sites in Constanța [...] Read more.
Drought poses a significant risk in many parts of the world, especially in regions reliant on agriculture. Evaluating this risk is an essential step in preventing and reducing its impact. In this context, we assess the drought intensity at six sites in Constanța County (Romania) using the de Martonne aridity index. The risk of aridity and vulnerability to drought were evaluated by the Drought Hazard Index (DHI) and Drought Risk Index (DRI), computed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The de Martonne index indicates a variation between the slightly arid and semi-arid climates for Adamclisi station, with periodic changes from semi-arid to arid. At Cernavodă station, we notice a passage from an arid period towards a moderately humid one (in 2005), followed by a movement in the opposite direction to the limit of the arid zone (in 2011), and a return inside the “limits” of the semi-arid to moderately arid climate. A similar variation for 2000–2018 is noticed at Medgidia, Hârșova, and Mangalia. DRI classifies two stations in the low risk to drought category and one in the moderate risk to drought class. The other two locations experience a high or very high risk of drought. The drought intensities varied in the intervals 0.503–1.109 at Constanța, 0.473–1.363 at Mangalia, 0.511–1.493 at Adamclisi, 0.438–1.602 at Hârșova, 0.307–1.687 at Medgidia, and 0.463–1.307 at Cernavodă, and the prolonged drought periods were over 99 months at all stations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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16 pages, 5700 KiB  
Article
Projection of Extreme Summer Precipitation over Hubei Province in the 21st Century
by Abrar Mubark, Qian Chen, Mohamed Abdallah, Awad Hussien and Monzer Hamadalnel
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 983; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080983 - 16 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1051
Abstract
The link between the escalation of global warming and the increase in extreme precipitation events necessitates a deeper understanding of future trends. This study focused on the dynamics of extreme rainfall in Hubei Province throughout the 21st century, a region already sensitive to [...] Read more.
The link between the escalation of global warming and the increase in extreme precipitation events necessitates a deeper understanding of future trends. This study focused on the dynamics of extreme rainfall in Hubei Province throughout the 21st century, a region already sensitive to climatic shifts and extreme weather occurrences. Using the high-resolution global climate model RegCM4 driven by another high-resolution model, HadGEM2-ES, and based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario, this research predicted the changes in rainfall patterns in Hubei Province during the summer of the 21st century. The accuracy of the adjusted model was confirmed through the use of five extreme rainfall indices (EPIs), namely maximum 5-day amount of precipitation (RX5day), number of heavy rain days (R10), the simple daily intensity index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and consecutive wet days (CWD), that measured the intensity and frequency of such events. In particular, excluding the index for continuous dry days (CDD), there was an anticipated increase in extreme rainfall during the summer in the mid-21st century. The number of heavy rain days (R10mm) increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the southeastern parts, especially for Wuhan, Xiantao, Qianjiang, Jinzhou, and Ezhou. The EPI values were higher in southeastern Hubei. Consequently, areas such as Wuhan, Xiantao, and Qianjiang in Hubei Province are projected to face more frequent and severe extreme rainfall episodes as the century progresses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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25 pages, 6747 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Patterns of Typhoon-Induced Extreme Precipitation in Hainan Island, China, 2000–2020, Using Satellite-Derived Precipitation Data
by Mengyu Xu, Yunxiang Tan, Chenxiao Shi, Yihang Xing, Ming Shang, Jing Wu, Yue Yang, Jianhua Du and Lei Bai
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 891; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080891 - 25 Jul 2024
Viewed by 1657
Abstract
Extreme precipitation events induced by tropical cyclones have increased frequency and intensity, significantly impacting human socioeconomic activities and ecological environments. This study systematically examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of these events across Hainan Island and their influencing factors using GsMAP satellite precipitation data and [...] Read more.
Extreme precipitation events induced by tropical cyclones have increased frequency and intensity, significantly impacting human socioeconomic activities and ecological environments. This study systematically examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of these events across Hainan Island and their influencing factors using GsMAP satellite precipitation data and tropical cyclone track data. The results indicate that while the frequency of typhoon events in Hainan decreased by 0.3 events decade−1 from 1949 to 2020, extreme precipitation events have increased significantly since 2000, especially in the eastern and central regions. Different typhoon tracks have distinct impacts on the island, with Track 1 (Northeastern track) and Track 2 (Central track) primarily affecting the western and central regions and Track 3 (Southern track) impacting the western region. The impact of typhoon precipitation on extreme events increased over time, being the greatest in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Incorporating typhoon precipitation data shortened the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation in the central and eastern regions. Diurnal peaks occur in the early morning and late evening, primarily affecting coastal areas. Typhoon duration (CC_max = 0.850) and wind speed (CC_max = 0.369) positively correlated with extreme precipitation, while the pressure was negatively correlated. High sea surface temperature areas were closely associated with extreme precipitation events. The atmospheric circulation indices showed a significant negative correlation with extreme precipitation, particularly in the western and central regions. ENSO events, especially sea surface temperature changes in the Niño 1 + 2 region (−0.340 to −0.406), have significantly influenced typhoon precipitation characteristics. These findings can inform region-specific disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for Hainan Island. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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17 pages, 5118 KiB  
Article
Estimating Concurrent Probabilities of Compound Extremes: An Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Events in the Limpopo Lowveld Region of South Africa
by Caston Sigauke and Thakhani Ravele
Atmosphere 2024, 15(5), 557; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050557 - 30 Apr 2024
Viewed by 1486
Abstract
In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the joint modelling of compound extreme events such as high temperatures and low rainfall. The increase in the frequency of occurrence of these events in many regions has necessitated the development of models for [...] Read more.
In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the joint modelling of compound extreme events such as high temperatures and low rainfall. The increase in the frequency of occurrence of these events in many regions has necessitated the development of models for estimating the concurrent probabilities of such compound extreme events. The current study discusses an application of copula models in predicting the concurrent probabilities of compound low rainfall and high-temperature events using data from the Lowveld region of the Limpopo province in South Africa. The second stage discussed two indicators for monitoring compound high temperature and low rainfall events. Empirical results from the study show that elevations ranging from 100–350 m, 350–700 m and 700–1200 m exhibit varying probabilities of experiencing drought, with mild droughts having approximately 64%, 66%, and 65% chances, moderate droughts around 36%, 39%, and 38%, and severe droughts at approximately 16%, 19%, and 18%, respectively. Furthermore, the logistic regression models incorporating the southern oscillation index as a covariate yielded comparable results of copula-based models. The methodology discussed in this paper is robust and can be applied to similar datasets in any regional setting globally. These findings could be useful to disaster management decision makers, helping them formulate effective mitigation strategies and emergency response plans. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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10 pages, 3686 KiB  
Communication
Vegetation and Evapotranspiration Responses to Increased Atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit across the Global Forest
by Rihong Wen, Meiou Qin, Peng Jiang, Feiyun Yang, Bin Liu, Mengyuan Zhu, Yuan Fang, Yichen Tian and Bo Shang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(4), 408; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040408 - 26 Mar 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2501
Abstract
A forest is vulnerable to drought and plays important roles in the regulation of carbon and water cycling in a terrestrial ecosystem. Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been identified as an increasingly major factor in plant functioning and has been established as [...] Read more.
A forest is vulnerable to drought and plays important roles in the regulation of carbon and water cycling in a terrestrial ecosystem. Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been identified as an increasingly major factor in plant functioning and has been established as a main contributor to recent drought-induced plant mortality, independent of other drivers associated with climate change. However, most previous studies have focused on the effects of climate warming and CO2 enrichment on vegetation growth, without considering the effects of an increased VPD on vegetation growth and evapotranspiration (ET) in forest ecosystems. This could lead to a large uncertainty in estimating the variability in forest carbon sinks. Based on the long-term satellite data, we investigated the response of the leaf area index (LAI) and ET to the VPD via a partial correlation analysis in this study. We also examined the temporal variability in the partial coefficients within a ten-year moving window. The results showed that over 50% of the region displayed a negative partial correlation between the LAI, ET, and VPD, and those pixels were mainly concentrated in North America and the plains of Eastern Europe. Regions with a negative trend of partial correlation in both the LAI and ET are mostly located in the plains of Eastern Europe and the Siberian Plain of western Russia, while the positive trend is mainly in South America. The plains of Eastern Europe are becoming drier, which was proved by the interannual trend of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and soil water content (SWC). Additionally, the LAI and ET in those areas exhibited a significant positive correlation with the SWC based on the moving window average. This study suggests that the role of the VPD on vegetation will become increasingly prominent in the context of future climate change for the forest ecosystem. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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15 pages, 5436 KiB  
Article
Research on the Terrain Characteristics of Changbai Mountain and Their Impact on Precipitation and Wind Distribution
by Li Liang, Wanxiu Ai, Xiaodan Yang and Luqiang Zhao
Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 272; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030272 - 24 Feb 2024
Viewed by 1330
Abstract
The terrain of Changbai Mountain has great influence on the distribution of atmospheric flows and the occurrence and development of precipitation. However, quantitative studies on the real terrain characteristics and the terrain effect on precipitation distribution in this region are scant at present. [...] Read more.
The terrain of Changbai Mountain has great influence on the distribution of atmospheric flows and the occurrence and development of precipitation. However, quantitative studies on the real terrain characteristics and the terrain effect on precipitation distribution in this region are scant at present. This study quantitatively analyzes the regional characteristic of topographic perturbations and the relationship between terrain, wind, and precipitation in Changbai Mountain region by using a spectral analysis of the two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Three domains with relatively heavy summer precipitation are selected as the study region. The results indicate that the overall terrain of the Changbai Mountain region exhibits anisotropic characteristics. The terrain spectra of domain B are less than those of domains A and C across the whole wavelength (λ) bands, indicating that the large-scale topographic perturbations of domain B are relatively weak. The largest topographic spectral peak of domain C shows the most pronounced undulation of terrain among the three domains. The dominant wavelengths of terrain height variance for domains A and C, both close to the respective maximum wavelengths, indicate more prominent large-scale topographic perturbations. For domain A, the variation of the precipitation spectra is consistent with that of the wind spectra at the wavelength bands of λ < 390 km, showing a high correlation between wind field and the occurrence of rainfall. The inverse relationship at larger wavelengths indicates that multiple factors contribute to the occurrence of rainfall. For domain B, there is consistency in the fluctuations of terrain spectra, precipitation spectra, and wind spectra at the wavelength bands of λ < 278.3 km, implying that the smaller-scale terrain has an important effect on the occurrence of summer precipitation. For domain C, the variations of terrain spectra, precipitation spectra, and wind spectra are almost consistent across the whole wavelength bands, indicating that the large-scale terrain and minor terrain both play a crucial role in atmospheric uplift and the occurrence and development of summer rainfall. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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17 pages, 5747 KiB  
Article
El Niño-Induced Drought Impacts on Reservoir Water Resources in South Africa
by Fhumulani I. Mathivha, Lufuno Mabala, Selelo Matimolane and Nkanyiso Mbatha
Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 249; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030249 - 20 Feb 2024
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2884
Abstract
The ENSO phenomenon is associated with below average rainfall and influences the climate regime of southern Africa. With the advent of climate change, drought frequencies and magnitudes have worsened in the developing world and this in turn negatively impacts the natural environment and [...] Read more.
The ENSO phenomenon is associated with below average rainfall and influences the climate regime of southern Africa. With the advent of climate change, drought frequencies and magnitudes have worsened in the developing world and this in turn negatively impacts the natural environment and communities’ livelihoods. This study evaluated the relationship between El Niño-induced drought and reservoir water levels over the Albasini Dam Catchment (ADC) areas in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Standardised indices (i.e., SPI and SSI) were used to define drought events over the study area. Mann–Kendall and Sequential Mann–Kendall were used for trends analysis as well as correlation and wavelet coherence to evaluate the relationship between variables of interest. There exists a relationship between El Niño-induced drought event and reservoir water levels. This was shown by the correlation between drought indices and reservoir water levels with the coefficient of determination being stronger at the 12th timescale (i.e., 0.743 and 0.59) compared to the 6th timescale (i.e., 0.07 and 0.44) for both precipitation and streamflow indices, respectively. Wavelet analysis further showed that there existed a phased relationship between the two variables. Although there are other factors that may affect reservoir water resources, these study findings show that El Niño-induced drought also negatively affect water resources. Therefore, this study recommends the development of multidimensional and multiscale management strategies to minimise drought impacts and adaptation in the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events in a Warming Climate)
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