- Article
Newborn Screening for Spinal Muscular Atrophy in the UK: Use of Modelling to Identify Priorities for Ongoing Evaluation
- Praveen Thokala,
- Alice Bessey and
- Silvia Lombardo
- + 4 authors
Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a genetic condition that causes the degeneration of motor neurons in the spinal cord. Newborn blood spot (NBS) screening can potentially enable diagnosis before symptoms, and presymptomatic treatment is considered to be more effective than symptomatic treatment. In this paper, we present an overview of a cost-effectiveness model of NBS screening for SMA in the UK, informed by key clinical trials and the relevant published literature. Our analyses suggest that implementing screening could result in better outcomes and lower costs compared to the current approach of no screening plus treatment. However, several uncertainties and limitations of the model remain. These include uncertainty in the reimbursement status of nusinersen and risdiplam in the future; the ‘actual’ costs of treatments, as they are under confidential commercial agreements; uncertainty in the long-term effectiveness of presymptomatic and symptomatic treatment; and uncertainty around the incidence of SMA and the costs and the accuracy of NBS screening. An SMA in-service evaluation (ISE) that could capture data specific to the UK is under consideration, and an appropriately designed ISE with ongoing data collection could support periodic updates of clinical and cost-effectiveness estimates of NBS screening for SMA in the UK.
13 January 2026





![Simplified model structure of NBS screening for SMA. The model begins with the population (a hypothetical cohort of newborns in the UK). The population in the no NBS screening arm is the same as in the NBS screening arm in terms of the incidence of SMA and the proportions of different genotypes and phenotypes (i.e., the different SMA types). The box labelled “short-term module” represents a 3-year short-term model which incorporates the motor function milestones gained (i.e., sitting, walking with assistance, and broad range of normal development), the need for permanent ventilation, the time to death, and the treatment effectiveness based on clinical study data. In the short-term module box, the “baseline”, “published data”, and “end of follow-up” in the different columns relate to the 6-monthly time intervals, where data on the proportions of patients in the different health states are sourced from the key clinical studies of the different treatments. The long-term model on the right involves the extrapolation of the motor function milestones, the need for permanent ventilation, and mortality, which are assumed to be conditional on the health states reached by the end of the 3-year model. The long-term model uses 6-monthly time cycles to estimate the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years. Although not depicted in the figure, a BSC scenario was also included as a comparator. Abbreviations: BSC: best supportive care; NBS: newborn blood spot; SMA: spinal muscular atrophy; SMN: survival motor neuron. Source: [40].](https://mdpi-res.com/cdn-cgi/image/w=470,h=317/https://mdpi-res.com/IJNS/IJNS-12-00003/article_deploy/html/images/IJNS-12-00003-g001-550.jpg)

