Concrete Material Variability and Machine Learning Model Performance: A Comprehensive Review
Abstract
1. Introduction
- Investigate effects of different concrete formulations, characterized by differences in compositional components, micro-structural features, curing regimes, and environmental conditions, on model accuracy.
- Review the range of data-driven methods used in the analysis of concrete behavior, which include supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning (RL), and hybrid architectures.
- Focus on the emerging approaches, including deep learning-based defect detection and reinforcement learning, to optimize the construction process.
- Determine existing challenges, such as heterogeneity, lack, and bias of data and suggest future paths to create predictive models that are reliable and transferable to one another.
2. Sources of Variability in Concrete
2.1. Composition
- Types of Cement: The hydration kinetics, strength development, and permeability of different cement formulations, including Portland cement and blended cements with additional cementitious materials (e.g., fly ash or silica fume), depend on the cement type used [44,45,46,47]. As an example, high-volume fly-ash mixes generally have a lower strength gain and better durability [48].
- Aggregates: Aggregates can have an impact on workability, packing density, and crack propagation depending on their size, shape, texture and mineralogical composition. The use of fine and coarse aggregates may lead to the occurrence of varying levels of porosity and mechanical properties.
- W/C Ratio: This ratio is one of the critical determinants of mechanical and durability quality of concrete. Lower water-to-cement ratio tends to pass a stronger and less permeable structural integrity, and higher ratios tend to pass better workability but have high porosities and less resistance. The difference in the W/C ratio of mix designs is another contributor of variations in performance measure, especially compressive strength and chemical attack resistance [49,50].
2.2. Microstructure
- Porosity and Pore Size Distribution: Variations in pore structure influence permeability, durability, and elastic properties. Higher porosity generally correlates with reduced strength and increased susceptibility to ingress of deleterious agents [53].
- Interfacial Transition Zones (ITZ): The weak boundary zone between aggregates and cement paste impacts crack initiation and propagation. Microstructural differences in ITZ thickness and quality can lead to inconsistent mechanical performance [54].
2.3. Curing Conditions
2.4. Environmental Exposure
- Freeze–Thaw Cycles: Repeated freezing and thawing cause internal damage, especially in porous concrete, affecting strength and increasing permeability.
- Thermal Shock Cycles: Sudden and extreme temperature fluctuations, such as those caused by fire exposure or rapid environmental changes, can induce thermal gradients within the concrete mass. These gradients generate internal stresses that promote cracking, spalling, and degradation of mechanical properties.
2.5. Linking ML Input Features to Fundamental Concrete Mechanisms
3. ML Algorithms for Concrete-Related Predictions
3.1. Data Processing, Harmonization, and Normalization of Multi-Source Experimental Datasets
3.2. Supervised Learning
- Neural Network (NN): Neural networks are some computational models based on the structure and functioning of the human brain, made of layers of interconnected nodes (neurons) processing and transmitting information. NNs with more than one hidden layer (Deep Neural Networks, DNNs) have proven to be particularly effective in learning complex, nonlinear relationships over large datasets and are therefore highly effective in making long-term life predictions and in modeling time-dependent degradation processes. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs): This is a class of NN that processes sequential data by storing internal memory of past inputs, and it is amenable to time-dependent behavioral modeling. The CNNs are a particular form of DNNs that are capable of handling grid-like data, like images, and have been successfully used to detect cracks on images and classify surface damage [94,95,96]. Table 2 lists representative studies that have been carried out to compare ANN methods of predicting concrete properties.
| Study | Concrete Application | ML Methods Compared | Key Outcome (Best Performance) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duan et al. [97] | Compressive strength | ANN | ANN model, trained on 146 datasets from 16 studies, effectively predicted compressive strength using 14 input parameters. Results demonstrated ANN’s strong generalization capability across diverse mix designs and recycled aggregate types. |
| Naderpour et al. [98] | Compressive strength | ANN | ANN model, trained on 139 datasets from 14 studies, successfully predicted compressive strength of RAC using six input parameters. The model demonstrated strong performance across a wide range of recycled aggregate types, confirming its utility for sustainable construction planning. |
| Loureiro et al. [6] | Compressive strength | ANN | ANN achieved highest accuracy (R2 ≈ 0.89) with lowest error, closely followed by Gradient Boosting. RF and SVR performed slightly lower. ANN’s advantage was balanced by GB’s greater interpretability |
| Al Yamani et al. [99] | Compressive strength | ANN | NN consistently outperformed other models, with RMSE values indicating highly accurate predictions. The model showed strong agreement between predicted and measured compressive strength, with correlation values above 0.8 after 28 days. |
| Khademi et al. [100] | Compressive strength | ANN, ANFIS, MLR | ANN and ANFIS outperformed MLR in predictive accuracy. MLR was more suitable for preliminary mix design, while ANN and ANFIS are better suited for mix optimization and high-accuracy applications. Including non-dimensional parameters significantly improved model accuracy. |
| Hammoudi et al. [101] | Compressive strength | ANN, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) | Both ANN and RSM effectively modeled compressive strength. ANN showed higher prediction accuracy across all ages (7, 28, 56 days). Strength decreased with higher RCA replacement. Cement content and slump were significant predictors. ANN outperformed RSM in statistical accuracy (R2, RMSE, RPD). |
| Chen et al. [102] | Multiple properties of concrete | Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) | BPNN accurately modeled both material-to-property and property-to-property relationships. Average relative error remained under 7% for both models. A notable trade-off was observed between strength and permeability, supporting its use in predictive evaluations and test cost reduction. |
- Regression: Regression is a statistical process that is employed to model and predict continuous values by approximating a relationship between input variables and a target variable [103,104]. It is extensively used in the analysis and prediction of material behavior, including prediction of concrete strength in terms of mix proportions and curing conditions [23].
- Decision Trees (DTs): Decision trees divide the data into branches depending on the value of the feature to make a decision or prediction. They are also intuitive and simple to interpret and can be used in classification and regression tasks including the detection of the types of defects or structural health evaluation [105,106]. They are, however, subject to overfitting unless they are checked.
- Regression Trees: Regression trees are decision tree models applied to the prediction of the continuous numerical values by dividing data according to the feature thresholds. They are preferred due to their interpretability and capability of modeling complex and nonlinear relationships between mixed components and target properties. As an example, the regression trees can estimate the concrete compressive strength depending on the proportion of cement, water–cement ratio, and size of aggregate [83,84,85,86,87,88,89].
- Support Vector Machines (SVMs): Support vector machines identify the optimum boundary (hyper-plane) to divide the various classes in the data. They are very useful in categorization works like that of detecting defective and non-defective concrete or the classification of structural integrity. SVMs can handle high-dimensional data and are resistant to overfitting, when they are tuned well [19,90,91,92,93].
- Ensemble methods: Ensemble methods are those approaches that consolidate the forecasts of numerous base models, with the goal of improving accuracy and stability. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF) are two commonly used ensemble algorithms [107,108]. XGBoost constructs a sequence of decision trees, with each tree correcting the errors committed by the preceding trees using gradient boosting which has proven to be efficient and highly predictive, thus making it especially useful in the prediction of nonlinear relationships in concrete property prediction and mix design optimization [107]. Random Forests, on the other hand, are the aggregation of the several decision trees that are trained on random samples of data and features, and this assists in lowering overfitting and capturing different patterns. Random Forests have been widely used in classification and regression, as well as in defect detection applications [109,110] and durability prediction [111,112] in engineering.
- Long short-term memory (LSTM): LSTM is a particular model of recurrent neural network that can learn longer-range dependencies and temporal patterns in sequential data. LSTM addresses the issue of vanishing gradient which is inherent to traditional RNNs by storing memory cells and gating mechanisms that allow the model to learn complex time-series data. Structural health monitoring and predictive maintenance [113,114] are among the many applications of LSTM networks in which the importance of time dynamics is essential.
3.3. Unsupervised and Clustering Methods
- Clustering Algorithms: These are algorithms that cluster together similar concrete samples using common properties and indicate natural clusters of performance, such as concrete classes or performance clusters. K-means divides data into a set number of clusters by minimizing the distance between the points and the center of the cluster. In hierarchical clustering, a tree-based hierarchy of nested clusters is formed by merging or splitting clusters based on similarity. Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) identifies clusters using the density of data points and is able to identify clusters of any shape as well as isolate noise data [136]. Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) classify the data by assuming that it is a characteristic of a mixture of Gaussian distributions, where a point can be part of a cluster with different probabilities. The GMM can model overlapping and irregularities of clusters, unlike K-means [137,138]. The clustering techniques can be used to optimize mix designs by finding mixes with similar mechanical behavior formation [115,116,117,118,119,120,121,122].
- Dimensionality Reduction Techniques: Techniques are methods used to reduce the high dimension data to allow the analysis and visualization of the data. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performs reduction in dimensionality that converts the data into a group of orthogonal principal components that represent the highest quantification of the variance to isolate the key variables that affect concrete performance, including the admixture quantities of individual minerals or moisture content. t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) is a nonlinear algorithm which maintains local relations and achieves the visualization of complex patterns in the reduced-dimensional space. Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) is similarly a dimensionality reduction algorithm that preserves local and global data structure and usually is faster and more scalable. Those methodologies make visualization easier and aid in selection of features [123,124,125,126,127,128].
- Anomaly Detection Models: These are models that detect outliers that strongly deviate in normal patterns, including unusual curing conditions, unusual mix ratios, or unusual microsequences. The models help to identify such irregularities in the early stages of development of possible defects, material inconsistencies, or the non-compliance with quality, resulting in better quality management, safety, and reduction in the risk of structural failures in concrete use [129,130,131,132,133,134].
3.4. Reinforcement Learning Algorithm
- Algorithmic Approaches: RL is based on a number of fundamental algorithmic approaches. The value-based approaches like Q-learning and Deep Q-Networks (DQN) are aimed at determining the value of expected reward of actions to make decisions. Policy-gradient approaches, like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), in contrast, modify agent behavior to achieve long-term rewards. Such approaches are generally used in the context of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) that views the environment as a sequence of states, actions, and rewards [148,149]. The actor–critic models have the advantages of both policy-based and value-based approaches, using a single network to find actions (actor) and another to analyze them (critic).
- Real-World Implementation Challenges:
- Limitations:
3.5. Hybrid and Physics-Informed Models
4. Comparative Evaluation of Established ML Methods in Concrete Research
4.1. Mix Design Modeling and Optimization
4.2. Hardened Concrete Properties Prediction
4.3. Fresh Concrete Behavior and Processability
5. General Trends
- Ensemble and boosting models consistently outperform single-learner models on heterogeneous concrete datasets.
- Model performance is strongly constrained by dataset diversity rather than algorithmic complexity alone.
- Curing- and environment-driven variability remains a dominant source of prediction uncertainty.
- Physics-informed approaches improve robustness under extrapolative conditions.
5.1. Key Insights and Cross-Study Lessons
Contrasting ML Paradigms Under Different Variability Regimes
6. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| AI | Artificial Intelligence |
| NN | Artificial Neural Network |
| BNN | Bayesian Neural Network |
| CNN | Convolutional Neural Network |
| DBSCAN | Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise |
| DNN | Deep Neural Network |
| DT | Decision Trees |
| GMM | Gaussian Mixture Model |
| XGBoost | Extreme Gradient Boosting |
| GAN | Generative Adversarial Network |
| GGBS | Ground Granulated Blast-Furnace Slag |
| ITZ | Interfacial Transition Zones |
| KNN | K-Nearest Neighbors |
| LSTM | Long Short-Term Memory |
| MDP | Markov Decision Process |
| ML | Machine Learning |
| MLPNN | Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network |
| NN | Neural Network |
| PCA | Principal Component Analysis |
| PPO | Proximal Policy Optimization |
| RF | Random Forests |
| RL | Reinforcement Learning |
| RNN | Recurrent Neural Network |
| SVM | Support Vector Machine |
| t-SNE | t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding |
| UMAP | Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection |
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| Source of Variability | Examples | Impact on Concrete Properties | Implications for ML Models | Suggested Strategies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composition | Cement type, water-to-cement ratio, SCMs, admixtures [65,66,67] | Controls strength, permeability, workability | Shifts in statistical distributions reduce generalization; models may overfit specific mix ranges | Expand dataset diversity; feature normalization; transfer learning |
| Microstructure | Porosity, ITZ quality, hydration products [68,69,70] | Governs stiffness, toughness, durability | Microstructural data often sparse → underrepresented features | Physics-informed ML; imaging-based ML; hybrid models |
| Curing Conditions | Temperature, humidity, curing duration, curing method [71,72,73] | Affects strength development, shrinkage, cracking | Time-dependent behaviors often ignored → inaccurate predictions | Use time-series models (RNN, LSTM); explicit encoding of curing regimes |
| Environmental Exposure | Freeze–thaw, carbonation, chloride/sulfate attack [24,74,75,76,77,78,79] | Long-term durability and degradation | Highly nonlinear degradation patterns difficult to capture | Ensemble learning; anomaly detection; coupling with mechanistic models |
| Ref | Concrete | Inputs | ML Model(s) | Optimization | Objectives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [160] | Silica fume concrete | Cement, SF, W/B, CA, FA, SP, age | Biogeography-based programming (BBP) | Constrained biogeography-based optimization (CBBO) | Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) ≥ req, Cost ↓ |
| [161] | Silica fume concrete (SFC) | Cement, SF, W/B, FA, CA, SP, age, Maximum size of coarse aggregate | NN | multi-objective beetle antennae search (MOBAS) | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [162] | Sustainable concrete | Cement, SCM, W/B, CA, FA, SP, Age | ANN, SVM, regression | Genetic algorithm (GA), water cycle algorithm (WCA), soccer league comp. | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓, Energy ↓ |
| [163] | Rubbercrete | Cement (MC), W/B, CA, FA, SP, SF, waste coarse rubber (WCR), waste fine rubber (WFR), Age | M5P + MGEP (ensemble) | Grey wolf optimization (GWO) | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓, WR use ↑ |
| [164] | Lightweight aggregate concrete | Fine LECA, Coarse LECA, SP, W/B, cement, SF, Powder stone | DBN | GA + LCA | Strength ↑, Cost ↓, Env. footprint ↓ |
| [165] | Conventional concretes | Cement, agg., W/B, SP | ANN, RF, DT, Polynomial Regression | NSGA-II | UCS ↑, Cost–CS balance |
| [166] | SCM concretes (5 SCMs) | Cement, FA, slag, SF, WMP, WGP, agg., SP, W/B | Multiple linear regression (MLR), K nearest neighbors (KNN), SVM, Gaussian process (GP), RF, ANN, GBM, XGBM (best) | Multicollinearity-aware MOO (MA-MOO) | UCS ≈ target, Cost ↓, Env. ↓ |
| [167] | Fly ash–slag geopolymer | Slag, FA, NaOH, Na2SiO3, SP, CA, FA, W/B | Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), RF, GB, BPNN | PSO | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [168] | Fly ash–slag geopolymer | FA, slag, Na-silicate, curing | RF, extremely randomized tree (ERT), GBR, XGBR | Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm 2 (NSGA-II) | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [169] | Recycled brick aggregate (RBA) concrete | Cement, W/B, RBA, crushed tile ratio (CT), crushed brick ratio (CB), and natural aggregate (NA) ratio. | NN, SVM, RF, Extreme learning machine (ELM), Generalized regression neural network (GRNN), XGB, GWO-BP (best) | MOO (swarm) | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [170] | UHPC | SF, FA, slag, FA., CA, W/B, steel fiber, W/B, SP | XGBoost (best), RF, GBR, LR, NN, DT. | AHP | UCS ↑, Flexural ↑, Workability ↑, Shrinkage ↓, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [171] | Fly ash-based geopolymer | Fly ash chem. composition, mix proportions, curing conditions | NN | NSGA-II (MODO) | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [172] | Cold-region durability | Cement, FA, CA, SP, W/B | RF | NSGA-II | Durability ↑, Cost ↓ |
| [173] | Recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) | Cement, sand, W/B, CA, FA, Strength grade of cement, RCA, curing, admixtures | NN, GPR, RF, Classification and regression tree (CART), gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT), XGB (best) | CMOPSO | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓, Energy ↓ |
| [174] | Blended-cement concrete (Opt-bcc) | OPC + 5 SCMs + func. reqs | Pre-bcc ML | GA (Opt-bcc) | Strength, Workability, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [175] | Conventional concrete (industrial DB) | Cement, FA, slag, sand, CA, admixtures, W/B | Gradient Boosting (best) | NSGA-III, C-TAEA | UCS ↑, Binder efficiency ↑, Cost ↓ |
| [176] | Recycled aggregate concrete | Cement, FA, Slag, SF, RA, RWA, SP, TA | Elastic Net regression, KNN, NN, SVM, DT, RF, XGBoost, Light Gradient Boosting (LGBoost), Category Boosting (CatBoost), and Stacking methods | MOWCA, Monte Carlo + SHAP | UCS ↑, Cost ↓, CO2 ↓ |
| [177] | Conventional concrete | 28- and 90-day UCS, slump, size, CA, W | Elastic Net (best), ANN, RF, DT | Regression-based cement prediction | Cement ↓ (~10%), CO2 ↓ (~10%), UCS maintained |
| [178] | Manufactured sand concrete (MSC) | Cement, FA, M-sand, CA, SP, W/B | NN, RF, SVR, XGBoost (best) | NSGA-II | UCS ↑, Durability ↑, Cost ↓ |
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Bahmani, H.; Mostafaei, H.; Santos, P.; Ferrández, D. Concrete Material Variability and Machine Learning Model Performance: A Comprehensive Review. Buildings 2026, 16, 556. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16030556
Bahmani H, Mostafaei H, Santos P, Ferrández D. Concrete Material Variability and Machine Learning Model Performance: A Comprehensive Review. Buildings. 2026; 16(3):556. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16030556
Chicago/Turabian StyleBahmani, Hadi, Hasan Mostafaei, Paulo Santos, and Daniel Ferrández. 2026. "Concrete Material Variability and Machine Learning Model Performance: A Comprehensive Review" Buildings 16, no. 3: 556. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16030556
APA StyleBahmani, H., Mostafaei, H., Santos, P., & Ferrández, D. (2026). Concrete Material Variability and Machine Learning Model Performance: A Comprehensive Review. Buildings, 16(3), 556. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16030556

