The Spatial Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of the Barkhor Historic Area, Lhasa, Tibet, China: A Case Study of a Religious–Cultural Historic Area

In this study, we investigate the spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of the Barkhor Historic Area in Lhasa, Tibet, China, in the context of rapid urbanization and heritage conservation. Using multi-temporal spatial data, an integrated analytical framework combining a geographical information system, spatial design network analysis, and GeoDetector software 2015 is employed to examine land use, road network structure, and building morphology. The results show that the overall spatial structure remains highly continuous within a stable pilgrimage-based spatial framework, with spatial evolution occurring primarily through functional reorganization and incremental adjustment within the existing structure. Land use shifts from relatively single functions to mixed patterns, with commercial and public services increasingly concentrated along pilgrimage routes. The road network maintains a stable structural backbone centered on the pilgrimage system, while building morphology evolves through small-scale infill and localized transformation, preserving traditional spatial scales. Driving factor analysis reveals a transition from single-factor dominance to multi-factor coupling. Socio-economic factors dominate early-stage changes, spatial structure provides a persistent organizational framework, and cultural heritage increasingly shapes spatial continuity and functional adaptation. This study highlights a form of pilgrimage-oriented spatial adaptation in religious–cultural historic areas, characterized by structural continuity, functional embedding, and multi-factor coupling, and provides new perspectives for adaptive conservation and spatial governance in historic urban areas.