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Article

Projected Hydroclimate Changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models

1
Instituto Geográfico Universitario, Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo, Santo Domingo 10103, Dominican Republic
2
Research Laboratory in Atmospherical Science, University of Puerto Rico at Carolina, Carolina 00984, Puerto Rico
3
Institute of Meteorology, Loma de Casa Blanca, Regla, La Habana 11700, Cuba
4
Department of Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
5
Instituto de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo, Santo Domingo 51122, Dominican Republic
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010006
Received: 1 November 2020 / Revised: 19 December 2020 / Accepted: 20 December 2020 / Published: 23 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
Climate change might increase the frequency and severity of longer-lasting drought in the Caribbean, including in Hispaniola Island. Nevertheless, the hydroclimate changes projected by the state-of-the-art earth system models across the island remain unknown. Here, we assess 21st-century changes in hydroclimate over Hispaniola Island using precipitation, temperature, and surface soil moisture data from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The resulting analysis indicates, as with the previous 5th Phase of CMIP (CMIP5) models, that Hispaniola Island might see a significant drying through the 21st century. The aridity appears to be robust in most of the island following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.6, which assumes the “worst case” greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. We find a significant reduction in both annual mean precipitation and surface soil moisture (soil’s upper 10 cm), although it appears to be more pronounced for precipitation (up to 26% and 11% for precipitation and surface soil moisture, respectively). Even though we provide insights into future hydroclimate changes on Hispaniola Island, CMIP6’s intrinsic uncertainties and native horizontal resolution precludes us to better assess these changes at local scales. As such, we consider future dynamical downscaling efforts that might help us to better inform policy-makers and stakeholders in terms of drought risk. View Full-Text
Keywords: Hispaniola Island; Caribbean; climate change; climate models; CMIP6; drought Hispaniola Island; Caribbean; climate change; climate models; CMIP6; drought
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MDPI and ACS Style

Herrera, D.A.; Mendez-Tejeda, R.; Centella-Artola, A.; Martínez-Castro, D.; Ault, T.; Delanoy, R. Projected Hydroclimate Changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010006

AMA Style

Herrera DA, Mendez-Tejeda R, Centella-Artola A, Martínez-Castro D, Ault T, Delanoy R. Projected Hydroclimate Changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(1):6. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010006

Chicago/Turabian Style

Herrera, Dimitris A., Rafael Mendez-Tejeda, Abel Centella-Artola, Daniel Martínez-Castro, Toby Ault, and Ramón Delanoy. 2021. "Projected Hydroclimate Changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models" Atmosphere 12, no. 1: 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010006

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