Modelling and Forecast of Future Growth for Shandong’s Small Industrial Towns: A Scenario-Based Interactive Approach

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The authors are claiming that Most quantitative studies exclude the objective impact of policy changes and regional collaboration from the analysis of the small town's development. Consequentially, the research findings lack adaptability. However, there is no genuine reference has been cited that can support the author's claim. I would recommend citing at least 5 articles with quantitative analysis.

According to the authors, small industrial towns are vulnerable to uncertain external disturbances. What are those external factors? List them and discuss those factors individually.

Apply ANOVA to see if there is a significant difference among all the time zones such as 1969-1979, 1979-2009, and 2009 to 2019.

Can we generalize this model and research for the whole of China? What are the limitations of this study?

Author Response

Thank you for your comments. Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

The reviewed article presents a growth model based on regressions and the dynamic behavior of different elements over time. This model is used in the analysis of the evolution of a small city in the province of Jinan since 1969 and its development forecast in 2040. The manuscript has scientific validity to be published in the Sustainability journal. However, in the opinion of this reviewer, some changes could be made, that I put forward to the authors as suggestions:
- Change the title of the article, I think it does not correspond to what the text offers. The present title is too broad and theoretical, when the article is an empirical analysis of a theoretical model applied in a small Chinese town.
- Define the methodological bases of the work in a specific section. What is a small town for authors? What objectives do you intend to achieve by modeling its evolution? Why has only one type of small city been chosen when speaking of three different categories? What is the research question?
- I think the number of figures in the article could be increased. Surely the authors can include more maps and projections of the area under study that would complete the manuscript.

Author Response

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Reviewer 3 Report

Intro

"As part of the regional production chain, industrial 68 small towns are most vulnerable to the impact of external uncertain disturbances." (68-69) Why?

 

3. Analysis of the characteristics of small towns in Shandong and selection of applicable models

This chapter lacks basic information about what the word "small town" means (population? area?), how many small industrial cities there are in Shandong, where Shandong is located, and most importantly, what Shandong is. I am from Europe and to me the name 'Shandong' means nothing. In this context, I propose to complete and expand the information about the study area and the criteria for qualifying an administrative (?) unit as 'small town'.

My next question is why the authors analyze Shandong in particular. What makes them choose this specific place? I suggest completing the background about the criteria for selecting the case study.

3.2. Prerequisites for constructing a model of small town growth in Shandong

"The former module represents the passive adaptation of small towns to the established objective conditions and can simulate the bottom-up growth process of small towns. The last module expresses the goals of town planning participants and can simulate the top-down growth process of small towns" (line 174-179) - What do the authors mean by 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' growth process in this context?

"Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the financial support for small town planning is limited" (181-182) Why?

 

4.3. Classification of small town growth patterns

"Among the above three kinds of small towns, small 264 industrial towns are most obviously affected by the regional collaborative production 265 mode and the development strategy of urban agglomeration." (264-266) WHY?

"This essay selects small industrial  towns in Shandong as the research object and collects data from small towns in multiple regions to build the model. This essay, from the perspective of model research, selecting a single category of small towns as the research object is conducive to improving the system by focusing on the model structure. From the perspective of planning practice, this essay's selection of small industrial towns as the research object is beneficial to improve  the application probability of the model by specifying research objects." (267-273) These arguments do not appeal to me, especially the "planning practice" argument is refutable. I suggest a better justification.

 

5.1. Status of the case

I notice another methodological shortcoming here - again, the criteria for selecting a case study are not given. Because I do hope it is not an argument "According to a Diao Town government work report, the development goal of the town was "adhere to the strong industrial town does not waver" (286-287). 

5.3. Analysis of statistical results

Why do the authors generalize the results obtained from the analysis of one town (Diao Town) to all small industrial towns (where in Shandong? China?)

Examples:

"Continuously significant: distance from industrial areas, distance from built-up areas, distance from highways, and distance from traffic nodes

For small industrial towns, the same elements that influence industrialization also  influence urbanization." (318-320)

 

"Progressively significant: distance from water bodies, urban agglomeration gravity, and distance from main roads

The distance from open water on urbanization is gradually significant, indicating  that water sources' impact on industrial activities is significant and residents prefer to live in areas along the water for a better living environment. The gradually significant factor of urban agglomeration gravitational influence means that the influence of urban agglomeration development strategy is prevalent. It also means that the production mode of small 336 towns transitions from independent production to specialized production as a link of the  regional industrial chain with the central town as the core. In addition, the influence of the main roads of towns on urbanization has significance due to the imperfection of the road system"(330-339)

In conclusion, numerous methodological shortcomings, excessive generalizations of results, lack of description of the case study cause the text to require major revisions and improvements.

 

Author Response

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Reviewer 4 Report

Very well-presented clear and coherent. The objectives are defined, and the paper has provided the reader with important information about how one can be responding to the growth processes of small industrial towns. Although the topic is very much relevant for today’s practice in dealing with the uncontrolled growth of some small industrial towns, the manuscript in this forum should be refined for the publication purposes. The paper has selected an interesting case study represented by Shandong’s industrial towns. However, there are comments that should be considered by the authors.

 

-         The abstract should be more comprehensive and included the research novelty, research question[s], methodology, and measurement processes. The abstract should state briefly the purpose of the research, the principal results and major conclusions. An abstract is often presented separately from the article, so it must be able to stand alone.

-         The novelty of the work relative to previously published works should be emphasized in the abstract, introduction, and conclusions parts. This is not clear.

-         The methodological part has not been mentioned in the literature review.

-         A flowchart should be added to the article to show the research methodology steps.

-         It is suggested to present the structure of the article at the end of the introduction, after the three limitations in page 2.

-         The quality of figures/maps is weak. The original source of the figures/ maps should be used into the manuscript.

-         Please make sure your conclusions' section underscore the scientific value added of your paper, and the applicability of your findings/results, as indicated previously. Please revise your conclusion part into more details. Basically, you should enhance your contributions, underscore the scientific value added of your paper, and the applicability of your findings/results and future study in this session as well.

Author Response

Thank you for your comments. Please see the attachment.

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Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

The authors have made a substantial improvement in the article by following all the raised points. 

Author Response

Thanks for your suggestion.

Reviewer 3 Report

"Response 4: 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' are tactical words in the field. top-down switched to government-led, bottom-up switched to market-oriented"  I'm not convinced. Top-down is created and implemented by the government (national/regional) - OK, but bottom-up is initiated by local/regional government and non-government stakeholders. And the goal of this cooperation is not only market-oriented. Explain that issue.

5.1. Status of the case

"Diao Town's GDP ranks among small towns nationwide and 31 in Shandong Province" (line 348-349). I repeat my question - how many small towns are there in China and Shandong province? The authors add information in response 3, but not in the text! Why?

Add literature to endorse information about Diao Town (340-350 line)

 

Responce 6 - the information should be included in the text because it is very important to understand the background of the problem for the non-Chinese reader. I suggest adding the information, perhaps in an abbreviated version, and with a reference to the literature.

Technical drawbacks

Figure 3 - add a legend. What do the arrows mean? Add a red dot to show the location of Diao Town

Figure 4 - Jinan or JI' NAN? - Diao Zhen or Diao Town? spelling should be consistent 

Author Response

Thanks gor your suggestion, Please see the attachment

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf