Search Results (39)

Effective fishery management in coastal waters requires accurate assessments of species–environment relationships, particularly in data-rich but zero-inflated contexts (i.e., datasets with an excess of zero catches). Here, we used fishery-independent trawl survey data collected from 2018 to 2019 in the offshore waters of southern Zhejiang Province of China to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of Setipinna taty (scaly hairfin anchovy) and its environmental determinants. Given the high frequency of zero catches, we fitted both zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models and selected the best-performing approach using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Cross-validation indicated that the ZINB model (RMSE: 199.1, R²; 0.25) outperformed ZIP model (RMSE: 239.4, R²; 0.23). Temperature, depth, and salinity were key predictors of S. taty abundance, which generally occurred at depths of 20–40 m and salinities of 26–34 psu. We then applied the optimal ZINB model to predict S. taty distributions in spring, summer, and autumn of 2020. The predictions indicated a summer peak in abundance and a nearshore-to-offshore decreasing gradient, and were broadly consistent with the spatial distribution trends observed in the 2020 survey data. The highest predicted densities were located in nearshore areas off Wenzhou and Taizhou, west of 122° E. By clarifying the key environmental factors shaping S. taty distribution and applying zero-inflated count models to account for an excess of zero catches, which occur more frequently than expected under standard negative binomial models, this study provides an improved basis for effective conservation and sustainable utilization of S. taty resources in the southern offshore waters of Zhejiang; nevertheless, predictive performance could be further improved by incorporating additional environmental and biotic covariates together with extended spatio-temporal data. Full article

We introduce the Symmetric-$\mathbb{Z}$ (Sy-$\mathbb{Z}$) family, a unified class of symmetric discrete distributions on the integers obtained by multiplying a three-point symmetric sign variable by an independent non-negative integer-valued magnitude. This sign-magnitude construction yields interpretable, zero-centered models with tunable mass at zero and dispersion balanced across signs, making them suitable for outcomes, such as differences of counts or discretized return increments. We derive general distributional properties, including closed-form expressions for the probability mass and cumulative distribution functions, bilateral generating functions, and even moments, and show that the tail behavior is inherited from the magnitude component. A characterization by symmetry and sign–magnitude independence is established and a distinctive operational feature is proved: for independent members of the family, the sum and the difference have the same distribution. As a central example, we study the symmetric Poisson model, providing measures of skewness, kurtosis, and entropy, together with estimation via the method of moments and maximum likelihood. Simulation studies assess finite-sample performance of the estimators, and applications to datasets from finance and education show improved goodness-of-fit relative to established integer-valued competitors. Overall, the Sy-$\mathbb{Z}$ framework offers a mathematically tractable and interpretable basis for modeling symmetric integer-valued outcomes across diverse domains. Full article

Usage-Based Insurance (UBI), also referred to as telematics-based insurance, has been experiencing a growing global diffusion. In addition to being well established in countries such as Italy, the United States, and the United Kingdom, UBI adoption is also accelerating in emerging markets such as Japan, South Africa, and Brazil. In Japan, telematics insurance has shown significant growth in recent years, with a steadily increasing subscription rate. In South Africa, UBI adoption ranks among the highest worldwide, with market penetration placing the country among the top three globally, just after the United States and Italy. In Brazil, UBI adoption is expanding, supported by government initiatives promoting road safety and innovation in the insurance sector. According to a MarketsandMarkets report of February 2025, the global UBI market is expected to grow from USD 43.38 billion in 2023 to USD 70.46 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% over the forecast period. This growth is driven by the increasing adoption of both electric and internal combustion vehicles equipped with integrated telematics systems, which enable insurers to collect data on driving behavior and to tailor insurance premiums accordingly. In this paper, we analyze a large dataset consisting of trips recorded over five years from 100,000 policyholders across the Italian territory through the installation of black-box devices. Using univariate and multivariate statistical analyses, as well as Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with Zero-Inflated Poisson distribution, we examine claims frequency and assess the relevance of various synthetic indicators of driving behavior, with the aim of identifying those that are most significant for insurance pricing. Full article

Clostridioides difficile is an obligate anaerobe and is primarily transmitted via the fecal–oral route. Data characterizing the microbiome changes accompanying transitions from non-colonized to C. difficile colonized subjects are currently lacking. In this retrospective cohort study, we examined 16S rRNA gene sequencing data in a total of 481 fecal samples belonging to 107 patients. Based on C. difficile status over time, patients were categorized as Negative-to-Positive, Negative Control, and Positive Control. A linear mixed effects model was fitted to investigate the changes in the Shannon α-diversity index over time. Zero-inflated negative binomial/Poisson mixed effects models or generalized linear mixed models with negative binomial/Poisson distribution were used to investigate the changes in taxon counts over time among different groups. A total of 107 patients were eligible for the study. The median number of stool samples per patient was 3 (IQR 2–4). A total of 42 patients transitioned from C. difficile negative to positive (Negative-to-Positive), 47 patients remained negative throughout their tests (Negative Control) and 18 were always C. difficile positive (Positive Control). A significant difference in microbiome composition between the last negative samples and the first positive samples were shown in Negative-to-Positive patients, ANOSIM p = 0.022. In Negative-to-Positive patients, the phylum Pseudomonadota and family Enterobacteriaceae increased significantly in the first positive samples compared to the last negative samples, p = 0.0075 and p = 0.0094, respectively. Within the first 21 days, Actinomycetota decreased significantly over time in the Positive Control group compared to the other two groups (p < 0.001) while Bacillota decreased in both the Negative-to-Positive group and Positive Control. These results demonstrate that the transition from C. difficile negative to C. difficile positive is associated with alterations in gut microbial communities and their compositional patterns over time. Moreover, these changes play an important role in both the emergence and intensification of the gut microbiome dysbiosis in patients who transitioned from C. difficile negative to positive and those who always tested positive. Full article

The analysis of high-dimensional count data presents a unique set of challenges, including overdispersion, zero-inflation, and complex nonlinear relationships that traditional generalized linear models and standard machine learning approaches often fail to adequately address. This study introduces and validates a novel Random Forest framework specifically developed for high-dimensional Poisson and Negative Binomial regression, designed to overcome the limitations of existing methods. Through comprehensive simulations and a real-world genomic application to the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study, we demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve superior predictive accuracy, quantified by lower root mean squared error and deviance, and critically produced exceptionally stable and interpretable feature selections. Our theoretical and empirical results show that these distribution-optimized ensembles significantly outperform both penalized-likelihood techniques and naive-transformation-based ensembles in balancing statistical robustness with biological interpretability. The study concludes that the proposed frameworks provide a crucial methodological advancement, offering a powerful and reliable tool for extracting meaningful insights from complex count data in fields ranging from genomics to public health. Full article

Lifetime reproductive output (LRO), also called lifetime reproductive success (LRS) is often described by its mean (total fertility rate or net reproductive rate), but it is in fact highly variable among individuals and often positively skewed. Several approaches exist to calculating the variance and skewness of LRO. These studies have noted that a major factor contributing to skewness is the fraction of the population that dies before reaching a reproductive age or stage. The existence of that fraction means that LRO has a zero-inflated distribution. This paper shows how to calculate that fraction and to fit a zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial distribution to the LRO. We present a series of applications to populations before and after demographic transitions, to populations with particularly high probabilities of death before reproduction, and a couple of large mammal populations for good measure. The zero-inflated distribution also provides extinction probabilities from a Galton-Watson branching process. We compare the zero-inflated analysis with a recently developed analysis using convolution methods that provides exact distributions of LRO. The agreement is strikingly good. Full article

We propose a novel deep learning framework for counterfactual inference on the COMPAS dataset, utilizing a multi-task CNN-LSTM architecture. The model jointly predicts multiple outcome types: (i) count outcomes with zero inflation, modeled using zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and negative binomial (NB) distributions; (ii) time-to-event outcomes, modeled via the Cox proportional hazards model. To effectively leverage the structure in high-dimensional tabular data, we integrate functional data analysis (FDA) techniques by transforming covariates into smooth functional representations using B-spline basis expansions. Specifically, we construct a pseudo-temporal index over predictor variables and fit basis expansions to each subject’s feature vector, yielding a low-dimensional set of coefficients that preserve smooth variation while reducing noise. This functional representation enables the CNN-LSTM model to capture both local and global temporal patterns in the data, including treatment-covariate interactions. Our approach estimates both population-average and individual-level treatment effects (ATE and CATE) for each outcome and evaluates predictive performance using metrics such as Poisson deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE), and the concordance index (C-index). Statistical inference on treatment effects is supported via bootstrap-based confidence intervals and hypothesis testing. Overall, this comprehensive framework facilitates flexible modeling of heterogeneous treatment effects in structured, high-dimensional data, advancing causal inference methodologies in criminal justice and related domains. Full article

We propose the zero-inflated Polynomially Adjusted Poisson (zPAP) model. It extends the usual zero-inflated Poisson by multiplying the Poisson kernel with a nonnegative polynomial, enabling the model to handle extra zeros, overdispersion, skewness, and even multimodal counts. We derive the maximum-likelihood framework—including the log-likelihood and score equations under both general and regression settings—and fit zPAP to the zero-inflated, highly dispersed Fish Catch data as well as a synthetic bimodal mixture. In both cases, zPAP not only outperforms the standard zero-inflated Poisson model but also yields reliable inference via parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. Overall, zPAP is a clear and tractable tool for real-world count data with complex features. Full article

It is frequent for real-life count data to show inflation in lower values; however, most of the well-known count distributions cannot capture such a feature. The present paper introduces a new distribution for modeling inflated count data in small values based on a conflation of distributions approach. The new distribution inherits some properties from Poisson distribution (PD) and logarithmic distribution (LD), making it a powerful modeling tool. It can serve as an alternative to PD, LD, and zero-truncated distributions. The new distribution is worth considering theoretically, as it belongs to the weighted PD family. With zero as a support point, two additional models are suggested for the new distribution. These modifications yield distributions that demonstrate overdispersion models comparable to the negative binomial distribution (NBD) while retaining essential PD properties, making them suitable for accurately representing count data with frequent events of low frequency and high variance. Furthermore, we discuss the superior performance of three new distributions in modeling real count data compared to traditional count distributions such as PD and NBD, as well as other discrete distributions. This paper examines the key statistical properties of the proposed distributions. A comparison of the novel and other distributions in the literature is shown employing real-life data from some domains. All of the computations shown in this study are generated using the R programming language. Full article

The problem of estimating the ratio of the means of a two-component Poisson mixture model is considered, when each component is subject to zero-inflation, i.e., excess zero counts. The resulting zero-inflated Poisson mixture (ZIPM) model can be viewed as a three-component Poisson mixture model with one degenerate component. The EM algorithm is applied to obtain frequentist estimators and their standard errors, the latter determined via an explicit expression for the observed information matrix. As an intermediate step, we derive an explicit expression for standard errors in the two-component Poisson mixture model (without zero-inflation), a new result. The ZIPM model is applied to simulated data and real ecological count data of frigatebirds on the Coral Sea Islands off the coast of Northeast Australia. Full article

The number of chromosomal aberrations induced by a whole-body uniform exposure to ionizing radiation is typically assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. If this exposure is partial, the zero-inflated Poisson model is appropriate to describe the yield of chromosomal aberrations. In this work, two different Bayesian posterior approaches (numerical integration and Laplace’s approximation) for zero-inflated Poisson responses are studied for cytogenetic biodosimetry dose estimation purposes. They are evaluated using two experiments from the literature, both of which include data for dose–response calibration and the simulation of partial-body exposure. Laplace’s approximation demonstrates strong performance, delivering rapid results with a loss of precision that may not significantly impact clinical measurements compared to those obtained through the more computationally intensive numerical integration approach. Full article

Prior elicitation is an important issue in both subjective and objective Bayesian frameworks, where prior distributions impose certain information on parameters before data are observed. Caution is warranted when utilizing noninformative priors for hypothesis testing or model selection. Since noninformative priors are often improper, the Bayes factor, i.e., the ratio of two marginal distributions, is not properly determined due to unspecified constants contained in the Bayes factor. An adjusted Bayes factor using a data-splitting idea, which is called the intrinsic Bayes factor, can often be used as a default measure to circumvent this indeterminacy. On the other hand, if reasonable (possibly proper) called intrinsic priors are available, the intrinsic Bayes factor can be approximated by calculating the ordinary Bayes factor with intrinsic priors. Additionally, the concept of the integral prior, inspired by the generalized expected posterior prior, often serves to mitigate the uncertainty in traditional Bayes factors. Consequently, the Bayes factor derived from this approach can effectively approximate the conventional Bayes factor. In this article, we present default Bayesian procedures when testing the zero inflation parameter in a zero-inflated Poisson distribution. Approximation methods are used to derive intrinsic and integral priors for testing the zero inflation parameter. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate theoretical outcomes, and two real datasets are analyzed to support the results found in this paper. Full article

The rapid development and widespread application of artificial intelligence (AI) and robots have profoundly impacted the economy, society, and the environment. This article focuses on the relationship between industrial robots and green sustainable transformation in high-energy-consuming industries. Through the Poisson distribution fixed effect, the negative binomial fixed-effect model, and the two-way fixed-effect model, we found that the penetration of industrial robots in high-energy-consuming enterprises (HEEs) has a significant and positive effect on green innovation. In particular, we verified that total factor productivity and ESG, included in the zero-inflation model, have a breakthrough-accelerating role in the application of industrial robots to promote green sustainable transformation. Further analysis indicated that the adoption of industrial robots is also positively correlated with the improvement of corporate green sustainable transformation in non-state-owned enterprises, but state-owned enterprises are not sensitive. In the classification of segmented industries, only the metallurgical industry demonstrates the empowering role of green sustainable transformation. This article provides a new avenue for reshaping the low-carbon green sustainable transformation strategy of HEEs, as well as useful insights, supporting the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality by promoting the application of industrial robots and further improving total factor productivity and ESG performance. Full article

Researchers are often interested in how changes in one variable influence changes in a second variable, requiring the repeated measures of two variables. There are several multivariate statistical methods appropriate for this research design, including generalized estimating equations (GEE) and latent growth curve modeling (LGCM). Both methods allow for variables that are not continuous in measurement level and not normally distributed. More recently, researchers have begun to employ area under the curve (AUC) as a potential alternative when the nature of change is less important than the overall effect of time on repeated measures of a random variable. The research showed that AUC is an acceptable alternative to LGCM with repeated measures of a continuous and a zero-inflated Poisson random variable. However, less is known about its performance relative to GEE and LGCM when the repeated measures are ordinal random variables. Further, to our knowledge, no study has compared AUC to LGCM or GEE when there are two longitudinal processes. We thus compared AUC to LGCM and GEE, assessing the effects of repeated measures of psychological distress on repeated measures of smoking. Results suggest AUC performed equally well with both methods, although missing data management is an issue with both AUC and GEE. Full article

In the insurance sector, Zero-Inflated models are commonly used due to the unique nature of insurance data, which often contain both genuine zeros (meaning no claims made) and potential claims. Although active developments in modeling excess zero data have occurred, the use of Bayesian techniques for parameter estimation in Zero-Inflated Poisson models has not been widely explored. This research aims to introduce a new Bayesian approach for estimating the parameters of the Zero-Inflated Poisson model. The method involves employing Gamma and Beta prior distributions to derive closed formulas for Bayes estimators and predictive density. Additionally, we propose a data-driven approach for selecting hyper-parameter values that produce highly accurate Bayes estimates. Simulation studies confirm that, for small and moderate sample sizes, the Bayesian method outperforms the maximum likelihood (ML) method in terms of accuracy. To illustrate the ML and Bayesian methods proposed in the article, a real dataset is analyzed. Full article