Search Results (27)

Exposure to antibiotic-resistant microbial communities in coastal waters is an important threat to human health. Through a ten-year coastal time series, we used metagenomics from 236 time points to provide a comprehensive understanding of the seawater resistome, temporal distribution, and factors influencing frequencies of specific resistance types. Here, we predicted that antibiotic resistance gene frequencies would increase during the winter due to increased rainfall, with terrestrial and enteric taxa serving as the primary carriers of resistance genes in coastal waters. We found that seasonal and interannual trends of antibiotic resistance genes vary by gene and the taxa carrying them, as opposed to a general increase in most resistance genes during specific seasons. However, we found that precipitation and Enterococcus levels may be accurate indicators for total antibiotic resistance gene levels in Newport Beach coastal water. Resistance genes were primarily carried by marine taxa, though some terrestrial taxa and opportunistic pathogens also harbored these genes. Non-marine taxa can be introduced through rain, human activity, or sewage spills. By using metagenomics, we were able to elucidate the antibiotic-resistant bacterial communities in Newport Beach coastal water and demonstrate both seasonal and multiannual trends in their abundance with important implications for local health and safety. Full article

A deeper understanding of growth–climate relationships in natural forests (NFs) and planted forests (PFs) is crucial for the prediction of climate change impacts on forest productivity. Yet, the mechanisms and divergences in climatic responses between these forest types remain debated. This study investigated P. tabulaeformis NFs and PFs in China using tree-ring chronologies to analyze their radial growth responses to climatic factors and associated temporal–spatial dynamics. The results reveal significant negative correlations between radial growth and mean temperatures (Tmean) in August of the previous year and June of the current year, and positive correlations were observed with the September standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) of the previous year and May precipitation (PPT) and SPEI of the current year. Compared with NFs, PFs exhibited a heightened climatic sensitivity, with stronger inhibitory effects from prior- and current-year growing-season temperatures and greater SPEI influences during the growing season. Moving window analysis demonstrated higher temporal variability and more frequent short-term correlation shifts in PF growth–climate relationships. Spatially, NFs displayed latitudinal divergence, autumn Tmean shifted from growth-suppressive in southern regions to growth-promotive in the north, and winter SPEI transitioned from positive to negative correlations along the same gradient. However, PFs showed no significant spatial patterns. Relative importance analysis highlighted water availability (PPT and SPEI) as the dominant driver of NF growth, whereas temperature, moisture, and solar radiation co-regulated PF growth. These findings provide critical insights into climate-driven growth divergences between forest types and offer scientific support for the optimization of NF conservation and PF management under accelerating climate change. Full article

Winter mixed-phase precipitation (P) impacts transportation, electric power grids, and homes. Forecasting winter precipitation such as freezing precipitation (ZP), freezing rain (ZR), freezing drizzle (ZL), ice pellets (IPs), and the snow (S) and rain (R) boundary remains challenging due to the complex cloud microphysical and dynamical processes involved, which are difficult to predict with the current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding these processes based on observations is crucial for improving NWP models. To aid this effort, Environment and Climate Change Canada deployed specialized instruments such as the Vaisala FD71P and OTT PARSIVEL disdrometers, which measure P type (PT), particle size distributions, and fall velocity (V). The liquid water content (LWC) and mean mass-weighted diameter (${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{m}}$) were derived based on the PARSIVEL data during ZP events. Additionally, a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and an OTT Pluvio2 P gauge were used as part of the Winter Precipitation Type Research Multi-Scale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) field campaign at Sorel, Quebec. The dataset included manual measurements of the snow water equivalent (SWE), PT, and radiosonde profiles. The analysis revealed that the FD71P and PARSIVEL instruments generally agreed in detecting P and snow events. However, FD71P tended to overestimate ZR and underestimate IPs, while PARSIVEL showed superior detection of R, ZR, and S. Conversely, the FD71P performed better in identifying ZL. These discrepancies may stem from uncertainties in the velocity–diameter (V-D) relationship used to diagnose ZR and IPs. Observations from the MRR, radiosondes, and surface data linked ZR and IP events to melting layers (MLs). IP events were associated with colder surface temperatures (Ts) compared to ZP events. Most ZR and ZL occurrences were characterized by light P with low LWC and specific intensity and ${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{m}}$ thresholds. Additionally, snow events were more common at warmer T compared to liquid P under low surface relative humidity conditions. The Pluvio2 gauge significantly underestimated snowfall compared to the optical probes and manual measurements. However, snowfall estimates derived from PARSIVEL data, adjusted for snow density to account for riming effects, closely matched measurements from the FD71P and manual observations. Full article

Site and climate conditions are the key determinants controlling dominant height growth and forest productivity, both independently and interactively. Secondary natural oak forests are a typical forest type in China, especially in Hunan Province, but little is known about the site index of this forest under the complex site and climate variables in the subtropics. Based on survey data of dominant trees and site variables from 101 plots in Hunan oak natural secondary forests and climate data obtained using spatial interpolation, we used the random forest method, correlation analysis, and the analysis of variance to determine the main site and climate factors affecting oak forest dominant height and proposed a modeling method of an oak natural secondary forest site index based on the random effect of site–climate interaction type. Of the site variables, elevation affected stand dominant height the most, followed by slope direction and position. Winter precipitation and summer mean maximum temperature had the greatest impact on stand dominant height. To develop the modeling method, we created 10 popular base models but found low performance (R² ranged from 0.1731 to 0.2030). The optimal base model was Mitscherlich form M3 (R² = 0.1940) based on parameter significance tests. Since site and climate factors affect the site index curve, the dominant site and climate factors were combined into site types and climate types, respectively, and a nonlinear mixed-effects approach was used to simulate different site types, climate types, site–climate interaction types, and their combinations as random effects. Site–climate interaction type as a random factor enhanced model (M3.4) performance and prediction accuracy (R² from 0.1940 to 0.8220) compared to the optimum base model. After clustering the 62 site–climate interaction types into three, five, and eight groups using hierarchical clustering, a mixed-effects model with the random effects of eight groups improved model performance (R² = 0.8265) and applicability. The modeling method developed in this study could be used to assess a regional secondary natural oak forest site index under complex site and climate variables to evaluate the forest productivity. Full article

This systematic review, based on an adaptation of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement from 2020, focuses on studies of the atmospheric mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal, as well as observed trends and projections. The 54 selected articles cover the period from 2000 to 2024, in which the most used keywords are “portugal” and “extreme precipitation”. Of the 54, 23 analyse trends and climate projections of precipitation events, confirming a decrease in total annual precipitation, especially in autumn and spring, accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in autumn, spring and winter. Several articles (twelve) analyse the relationship between synoptic-scale circulation and heavy precipitation, using an atmospheric circulation types approach. Others (two) establish the link with teleconnection patterns, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and still others (three) explore the role of atmospheric rivers. Additionally, five articles focus on evaluating databases and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, and nine articles focus on precipitation-related extreme weather events, such as tornadoes, hail and lightning activity. Despite significant advances in the study of extreme precipitation events in Portugal, there is still a lack of studies on hourly or sub-hourly scales, which is critical to understanding mesoscale, short-lived events. Several studies show NWP models still have limitations in simulating extreme precipitation events, especially in complex orography areas. Therefore, a better understanding of such events is fundamental to promoting continuous improvements in operational weather forecasting and contributing to more reliable forecasts of such events in the future. Full article

The viewpoint and reaction of a country towards climate change are shaped by its political, cultural, and scientific backgrounds, in addition to the distinct characteristics of its evolving climate and the anticipated and actual consequences of the phenomenon in the times ahead. A region’s climate has a significant impact on how water is managed and used, mostly in the primary sector, and both the distribution of ecosystem types and the amount and spreading of species on Earth. As a result, the environment and agricultural practices are affected by climate, so evaluating both distribution and evolution is extremely pertinent. Towards this aim, the climate distribution and evolution in the São Francisco River basin (SFRB) is assessed in three periods (1970–2000, 1981–2022) in the past and 2041–2060 in the future from an ensemble of GCMs under two SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The Köppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification system is analyzed, and climate change impacts are inferred for this watershed located in central-eastern Brazil, covering an area equivalent to 8% of the country. Results predict the disappearance of the hot summer (Csa) and warm summer (Csb) Mediterranean climates, and a reduction/increase in the tropical savanna with dry winter (Aw)/dry summer (As). A striking increase in the semi-arid hot (BSh-steppe) climate is predicted with a higher percentage (10%) under SSP5-8.5. The source and the mouth of SFRB are projected to endure the major impacts of climate change that are followed by a predicted increase/decrease in temperature/precipitation. Future freshwater resource availability and quality for human use will all be impacted. Consequences on ecosystems, agricultural, and socioeconomic sectors within the SFRB might deepen the current contrasts between regions, urban and rural areas, and even between population groups, thus translating, to a greater extent, the inequality that still characterizes Brazilian society. Maps depicting land use and cover changes in SFRB from 1985 to 2022 highlight tendencies such as urbanization, agricultural expansion, deforestation, and changes in shrubland and water bodies. Urban areas fluctuated slightly, while cropland significantly increased from 33.57% to 45.45% and forest areas decreased from 3.88% to 3.50%. Socioeconomic data reveals disparities among municipalities: 74.46% with medium Human Development Index (HDI), 0.59% with very high HDI, and 9.11% with low HDI. Most municipalities have a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita below US$6000. Population distribution maps show a predominance of small to medium-sized urban and rural communities, reflecting the basin’s dispersed demographic and economic profile. To achieve sustainable adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts in SFRB, it is imperative that integrated measures be conducted with the cooperation of stakeholders, the local population, and decision-makers. Full article

Previous studies suggested that spring precipitation over the tropical western Pacific Ocean can influence the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To identify crucial precipitation patterns for post-spring ENSO evolution, a singular value decomposition (SVD) method was applied to spring precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and three precipitation and ENSO types were obtained with each highlighting precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) or western north Pacific (WNP). High MC spring precipitation corresponds to the slow decay of a multi-year La Niña event. Low MC spring precipitation is associated with a rapid El Niño-to-La Niña transition. High WNP spring precipitation is related to positive north Pacific meridional mode and induces the El Niño initiation. Among the three ENSO types, ocean current and heat content behave differently. Based on these spring precipitation and oceanic factors, a statistical model was established aimed at predicting winter ENSO state. Compared to a full dynamical model, this model exhibits higher prediction skills in the winter ENSO phase and amplitude for the period of 1980–2022. The explained total variance of the winter Niño-3.4 index increases from 43% to 75%, while the root-mean-squared error decreases from 0.82 °C to 0.53 °C. The practical utility and limitations of this model are also discussed. Full article

Plant spring phenology in grasslands distributed in the Northern Hemisphere is highly responsive to climate warming. The growth of plants is intricately influenced by not only air temperature but also precipitation and soil factors, both of which exhibit spatial variation. Given the critical impact of the plant growth season on the livelihood of husbandry communities in grasslands, it becomes imperative to comprehend regional-scale spatial variation in the response of plant spring phenology to climate warming and the effects of precipitation and soil factors on such variation. This understanding is beneficial for region-specific phenology predictions in husbandry communities. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern of the correlation coefficient between the start date of the plant growth season (SOS) and the average winter–spring air temperature (WST) of Inner Mongolia grassland from 2003 to 2019. Subsequently, we analyzed the importance of 13 precipitation and soil factors for the correlation between SOS and average WST using a random forest model and analyzed the interactive effect of the important factors on the SOS using linear mixing models (LMMs). Based on these, we established SOS models using data from pastoral areas within different types of grassland. The percentage of areas with a negative correlation between SOS and average WST in meadow and typical grasslands was higher than that in desert grasslands. Results from the random forest model highlighted the significance of snow cover days (SCD), soil organic carbon (SOC), and soil nitrogen content (SNC) as influential factors affecting the correlation between SOS and average WST. Meadow grasslands exhibited significantly higher levels of SCD, SOC, and SNC compared to typical and desert grasslands. The LMMs indicated that the interaction of grassland type and the average WST and SCD can effectively explain the variation in SOS. The multiple linear models that incorporated both average WST and SCD proved to be better than models utilizing WST or SCD alone in predicting SOS. These findings indicate that the spatial patterns of precipitation and soil factors are closely associated with the spatial variation in the response of SOS to climate warming in Inner Mongolia grassland. Moreover, the average WST and SCD, when considered jointly, can be used to predict plant spring phenology in husbandry communities. Full article

Model simulation plays a significant role in the water resources cycle, and the simulation accuracy of models is the key to predicting regional water resources. In this research, the Qianhe tributary at the Weihe River basin in Western China was selected as the study area. The tributary was divided into 29 sub-basins and 308 hydrological response units according to the spatial raster data and attribute data of the hydrology, meteorology, topography, land use, and soil types. On this basis, a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model for runoff simulation and evaluation of this region was established. A sensitivity test and parameter calibration were then executed on 15 parameters involved with surface runoff, soil flow, and shallow underground runoff. The simulation results demonstrate a calibration and verification error of 3.06–10.08%, with very small uncertainties throughout the simulation, whereas they exhibit relatively large errors in the simulation of the dry period (winter) but, in contrast, quite small errors in the rainy period (summer). In addition, the simulated runoff with a low value is overestimated. When the annual, monthly, and daily runoff are 4–13.5 m³/s, 4–69.8 m³/s, and 40–189.3 m³/s, respectively, the relative error is smaller, and the simulation results are more accurate. The sensitive parameters predominantly affecting the runoff simulation of the basin include soil evaporation compensation, runoff curve coefficient, vegetation transpiration compensation, and saturated hydraulic conductivity in this region. In the case of hypothetical land use change scenarios, we observe a great reduction in simulated runoff in arable land, woodland, and grassland, while we observe an increment in construction and residential land and wasteland. The annual and monthly runoff are increased by above 54.5%. With the increase in cultivated land and forestland, the annual and monthly runoff decrease by 24.6% and 6.8%, respectively. In the case of hypothetical scenarios under 24 climate combinations, if the precipitation remains unchanged, the increase and decrease in temperature by 1 °C leads to a decline and increment of runoff by −0.72% and 5.91%, respectively. With regard to the simulation for the future under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, downscaling was employed to predict the runoff trend of the future. In short, this study provides a method for runoff inversion and water resources prediction in small mountainous watersheds lacking hydrological and meteorological observation stations. Full article

The evaluation of weather forecast accuracy is of major interest in decision making in almost every sector of the economy and in civil protection. To this, a detailed assessment of Bologna Limited-Area Model (BOLAM) seven days fine grid 3 h predictions is made for precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed over a large lowland agricultural area of a Mediterranean-type climate, characterized by hot summers and rainy moderate winters (plain of Arta, NW Greece). Timeseries that cover a four-year period (2016–2019) from seven agro-meteorological stations located at the study area are used to run a range of contingency and accuracy measures as well as Taylor diagrams, and the results are thoroughly discussed. The overall results showed that the model failed to comply with the precipitation regime throughout the study area, while the results were mediocre for wind speed. Considering relative humidity, the results revealed acceptable performance and good correlation between the model output and the observed values, for the early days of forecast. Only in air temperature, the forecasts exhibited very good performance. Discussion is made on the ability of the model to predict major rainfall events and to estimate water budget components as rainfall and reference evapotranspiration. The need for skilled weather forecasts from improved versions of the examined model that may incorporate post-processing techniques to improve predictions or from other forecasting services is underlined. Full article

We propose the methodology of building the process-driven models for medium-term forecasting of spring floods (including catastrophic ones) in the mountainous areas, the hydrological analysis of which is usually much more complicated in contrast to plains. Our methodology is based on system analytical modeling of complex hydrological processes in 34 river basins of the Altai-Sayan mountain country. Consideration of 13 types of landscapes as autonomous hydrological subsystems influencing rivers’ runoff (1951–2020) allowed us to develop the universal predictive model for the most dangerous April monthly runoff (with ice motion), which is applicable to any river basin. The input factors of the model are the average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for the current autumn–winter period, as well as the data on the basin landscape structure and relief calculated by GIS tools. The established universal dependences of hydrological runoffs on meteorological factors are quite complex and formed under influence of solar radiation and physical–hydrological patterns of melting snow cover, moistening, freezing, and thawing of soils. The model shows the greatest sensitivity of April floods to the landscape composition of river basins (49% of common flood variance), then to autumn precipitation (9%), winter precipitation (3%), and finally, to winter air temperature (0.7%). When it is applied to individual river basins, the forecast quality is very good, with the Nesh–Sutcliffe coefficient NSE = 0.77. In terms of the accuracy of process-driven predictive hydrological models for the mountainous areas, the designed model demonstrates high-class performance. Full article

A winter precipitation-type prediction is a challenging problem due to the complexity in the physical mechanisms and computability in numerical modeling. In this study, we introduce a new method of precipitation-type prediction based on the machine learning approach LightGBM. The precipitation-type records of the in situ observations collected from 32 national weather stations in northern China during 1997–2018 are used as the labels. The features are selected from the conventional meteorological data of the corresponding hourly reanalysis data ERA5. The evaluation results of the model performance reflect that randomly sampled validation data will lead to an illusion of a better model performance. Extreme climate background conditions will reduce the prediction accuracy of the predictive model. A feature importance analysis illustrates that the features of the surrounding area with a –12 h offset time have a higher impact on the ground precipitation types. The exploration of the predictability of our model reveals the feasibility of using the analysis data to predict future precipitation types. We use the ECMWF precipitation-type (ECPT) forecast products as the benchmark to compare with our machine learning precipitation-type (MLPT) predictions. The overall accuracy (ACC) and Heidke skill score (HSS) of the MLPT are 0.83 and 0.69, respectively, which are considerably higher than the 0.78 and 0.59 of the ECPT. For stations at elevations below 800 m, the overall performance of the MLPT is even better. Full article

Despite regional warming, fire activity is decreasing in the Mediterranean region, blurring the well-established relationship between climate and wildfires. Here, we analyzed this relationship by focusing on the fire severity component of the fire regime. We determined the temporal trends of several climate, fire activity, and fire severity variables and the relationship of the latter two to the first in West-Central Spain (30,000 km²) for a 33 year period (1985 to 2017). Annually, fire variables at summer season were number of fires, burned area, fire size and fire severity (calculated using the relativized burn ratio (RBR) from Landsat satellite images). Fire severity was estimated for the whole area and for each of the main land use/land cover (LULC) types. Finally, the climate variables were maximum temperature, precipitation, and water deficit for all seasons (winter, spring, summer, and fall). Trends in those variables were assessed using the Mann–Kendal test, and the relationship between climate and fire variables was ascertained using autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) models. Main results indicated that number of fires and burned areas decreased, whereas drought conditions increased. Wildfires tended to burn preferentially in treeless areas, with conifer forests burning less frequently, and shrublands burning more so. Median RBR increased, as well as low (P₅) and high (P₉₀) percentiles. The percentage of burned areas at low severity decreased. All LULC types tended to burn at higher fire severities over time. The decreasing fire activity, but with increasing fire severity, coincides with rising maximum temperatures and drought (lower precipitation and higher water deficit). The temporal dynamics of fire activity and severity were well explained and predicted by spring and summer climate variables. Thus, while fire activity decreased, fire severity increased, driven by a more severe climate that was consistent with regional warming. Full article

Climate conditions can significantly alter the vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in many of Earth’s ecosystems, although specifics of NPP–climate condition interactions, especially time-lag responses on seasonal scales, remain unclear in ecologically sensitive forest–grassland ecotones. Based on the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and meteorological datasets, we analyzed the relationship between NPP and precipitation, temperature, and drought during the growing season (April–August), considering the time-lag effect (0–5 months) at the seasonal scale in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, China from 2000 to 2018. The results revealed a delayed NPP response to precipitation and drought throughout the growing season. In April, the precipitation in the 4 months before (i.e., the winter of the previous year) explained the variation in NPP. In August, the NPP in some areas was influenced by the preceding 1~2 months of drought. The time-lag effect varied with vegetation type and soil texture at different spatial patterns. Compared to grass and crop, broadleaf forest and meadow exhibited a longer legacy of precipitation during the growing season. The length of the time-lag effects of drought on NPP increased with increasing soil clay content during the growing season. The interaction of vegetation types and soil textures can explain 37% of the change in the time-lag effect of the NPP response to PPT on spatial pattern. Our findings suggested that preceding precipitation influences vegetation growth at the early stages of growth, while preceding drought influences vegetation growth in the later stages of growth. The spatial pattern of the time lag was significantly influenced by interaction between vegetation type and soil texture factors. This study highlights the importance of considering the time-lag effects of climate conditions and underlying drivers in further improving the prediction accuracy of NPP and carbon sinks in temperate semiarid forest–grassland ecotones. Full article

Temperature and precipitation are considered to be the most important indicators affecting the green-up date. Sensitivity of the green-up date to temperature and precipitation is considered to be one of the key indicators to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. We selected the main grassland types for analysis, including temperate steppe, temperate meadow steppe, upland meadow, and lowland meadow. This study investigates the variation in key meteorological indicators (daily maximum temperature (T_max), daily minimum temperature (T_min), and precipitation) between 2001 and 2018. We then examined the partial correlation and sensitivity of green-up date (GUD) to T_max, T_min, and precipitation. Our analysis indicated that the average GUD across the whole area was DOY 113. The mean GUD trend was −3.1 days/decade and the 25% region advanced significantly. T_max and T_min mainly showed a decreasing trend in winter (p > 0.05). In spring, T_max mainly showed an increasing trend (p > 0.05) and T_min a decreasing trend (p > 0.05). Precipitation showed no significant (p > 0.05) change trend and the trend range was ±10 mm/decade. For temperate steppe, the increase in T_min in March promotes green-up (27.3%, the proportion of significant pixels), with a sensitivity of −0.17 days/°C. In addition, precipitation in April also promotes green-up (21.7%), with a sensitivity of −0.32 days/mm. The GUDs of temperate meadow steppe (73.9%), lowland meadow (65.9%), and upland meadow (22.1%) were mainly affected by T_min in March, with sensitivities of −0.15 days/°C, −0.13 days/°C, and −0.14 days/°C, respectively. The results of this study reveal the response of vegetation to climate warming and contribute to improving the prediction of ecological changes as temperatures increase in the future. Full article