Search Results (20,381)

Exchange rate volatility has intensified in recent decades, yet its systematic implications for banking-sector stability remain contested. This study investigates whether exchange rate volatility constitutes a meaningful source of financial fragility using a global panel of 103 countries over the period 2000–2021. Financial stability is proxied by the banking-sector Z-score, while exchange rate volatility is estimated using a EGARCH-based framework to capture time-varying uncertainty. To address cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and endogeneity, the analysis employs Driscoll–Kraay fixed effects, two-step system GMM, and quantile regressions. The results reveal that exchange rate volatility exerts a statistically and economically significant negative effect on banking stability, reducing Z-scores across countries and income groups. The findings remain robust across alternative specifications and estimators. Bank-level fundamentals—capitalisation, liquidity, and credit—enhance stability, whereas higher non-performing loans and risk exposure amplify fragility. Macroeconomic conditions also matter, with stronger growth, institutional quality and external balances supporting resilience, while inflation, economic policy uncertainty and expansionary government spending weaken stability. By integrating time-varying volatility modelling with dynamic panel techniques in a large cross-country setting, this study provides new global evidence that exchange rate volatility is not merely a macroeconomic fluctuation but a structural source of banking-sector risk. The findings carry important implications for macroprudential policy, foreign-exchange management, and coordinated monetary–fiscal responses aimed at safeguarding financial stability in open economies. Full article

Volatile halogenated hydrocarbons (VHHs) are critical air toxic pollutants, with some ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) strictly regulated by the Montreal Protocol. However, current understanding of the pollution characteristics, sources, and health risks of atmospheric VHHs in Southwest China remains insufficient. This study performed field observations of atmospheric VHHs in summer in Mianyang, a medium-sized industrial city in the Sichuan Basin. Freon-12 (563 ± 20 ppt) and Freon-11 (264 ± 15 ppt) were the most abundant chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs); chloromethane (785 ± 261 ppt) and methylene chloride (563 ± 505 ppt) dominated among VSLSs. The mean concentration of regulated ODSs (1037 ± 33 pptv) was notably lower than unregulated very short-lived chlorinated substances (1887 ± 745 pptv), reflecting effective ODSs phase-out locally, yet enhancements relative to Northern Hemisphere background implied potential leakage from residual tanks. Methylene chloride and trichloroethylene concentrations exceeded global background levels by over 10 times, indicating strong anthropogenic industrial influences. Phased-out CFCs displayed negligible diurnal variation due to stringent emission controls, whereas unregulated VSLSs exhibited a distinct U-shaped diurnal cycle, with peaks driven by morning boundary layer dynamics and evening accumulation. Positive matrix factorization revealed that industrial sources, including electronic solvents (28.6%), industrial processes (27.8%), and solvent usage (23.7%), accounted for 80.1% of total VHHs. The total carcinogenic risk (2.3 × 10⁻⁵) surpassed the acceptable threshold (1 × 10⁻⁶), dominated by 1,2-dichloroethane, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and 1,2-dichloropropane. All individual compounds exhibited mean hazard quotients (HQs) below the non-carcinogenic risk threshold. The cumulative hazard index reached 1.5, suggesting combined non-carcinogenic risks to the local population. These results support VHHs health risk management and ODSs control in Southwest Chinese industrial cities. Full article

Wildfires release volatile phenolic compounds (VPs) that can be absorbed by grapevines, potentially resulting in “smoke taint” in wines. This has emerged as a prominent issue for the global wine industry due to negative impact on wine quality and subsequent financial losses. Since effective vineyard mitigation strategies remain limited, this study evaluated the efficacy of different materials applied to grapes to reduce the absorption of smoke marker compounds under simulated wildfire conditions. Twelve materials were applied to individual Cabernet Sauvignon clusters close to harvest. Treated vines were exposed to intentional smoke using a purpose-built tent. Grapes from treated vines, as well as smoke-exposed and non-exposed controls, were harvested at commercial maturity. The results showed a strong stratification of VPs within the tent and in the grapes. Glycosylation began within hours of smoke exposure, with significant increases in almost all glycosylated compounds within 4 hours compared to non-smoked controls. Some materials reduced VP uptake relative to untreated controls (kaolin, charcoal, and two commercial coating formulations—GM3E and GMB6), whereas others increased the absorption of smoke-derived compounds (Parka and wipe-out). These findings highlight that those protective treatments may have variable and sometimes counterproductive effects on smoke compound uptake. Full article

This study investigates the impact of oil prices and exchange rates on the manufacturing output of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan using data from the period 2000 to 2023, within the framework of the ARDL model. In the Kazakhstani economy, approximately 60% of SMEs operate in the wholesale and retail trade sectors, a factor that has been taken into consideration in interpreting the effects of macroeconomic variables on SME output. The results of the long-run analysis reveal that the exchange rate has a significant and strong positive effect on SME manufacturing output. Although oil prices do not directly exert a statistically significant influence on production output, the study identifies an indirect effect of oil revenues on SME output via the exchange rate channel. In the short-run findings, both exchange rates and oil prices are found to have significant effects on production output; in particular, oil prices exhibit a positive impact in the short term, which partially reverses in subsequent periods. The error correction term indicates a rapid adjustment back to equilibrium in the long run. These results highlight the high sensitivity of SME production performance in Kazakhstan to exchange rate fluctuations and underscore the indirect influence of oil prices through exchange rate movements. The study recommends enhancing the financial resilience of SMEs, minimizing exchange rate risks, and closely monitoring changes in energy prices. Furthermore, it suggests the development of policies aimed at promoting SMEs’ involvement in foreign currency-generating activities, as well as protecting enterprises in the wholesale and retail sectors against price volatility. In this context, the study makes a valuable contribution by providing a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of macroeconomic variables on SME manufacturing output. Full article

This study investigates the roles gold and the US dollar play as safe-haven, hedging, or diversifier assets relating to six important financial stock market indices: the S&P 500, FTSE 100, Hang Seng, CAC 40 (Paris), Shanghai Composite Index, and Nikkei 225. This paper applies the bivariate dynamic copula technique and the DCC-GARCH econometric advanced methods from January 2013 to July 2024 by focusing on four serious market crashes: the Chinese stock market meltdown (2015–2016), the trade war between the US and China (2018–2020), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (2022–2024). The results show that the US dollar displays reliable hedging and safe-haven characteristics with strong evidence mainly for its role as a safe-haven asset against the FTSE 100, Hang Seng, and S&P 500. Our findings support the idea that the US dollar serves consistently as a safe-haven asset. In contrast, gold showcased a twofold function, serving as a hedge for the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 during crisis times and acting as a diversifier for the CAC 40 and the Shanghai Composite Index in times of market stability. This dynamic was specifically noticeable in the COVID-19 period, when gold’s hedging properties were outstanding and its role as a diversifier became more pronounced in the Paris and Shanghai markets. Our results suggest that the consistent reliability of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset combined with gold’s dual role presents a compelling argument for including both in well-diversified portfolios. This strategy enables investors to mitigate risk and safeguard their wealth, especially during periods of financial market volatility. Full article

The rapid expansion of renewable energy has raised the demand for accurate, long-term wind power forecasting. However, wind power series are strongly affected by meteorological factors and exhibit pronounced volatility, making long-term prediction challenging. To model these characteristics more comprehensively, we propose STFNet, a dual-branch neural architecture that integrates time-domain and frequency-domain modeling. STFNet contains two key modules: (1) an MLFE module, which explicitly captures lag effects and non-stationary transitions through parallel multi-scale convolutions and a difference-convolution branch and further enhances multivariate dependency learning via cross-variable interaction modeling, and (2) an FGFE module, which applies DCT to capture long-cycle trends and uses a learnable low-pass filter for noise suppression. Experiments on two real-world wind farm datasets (LY and HG) show that STFNet consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving average MSE reductions of 15.9–26.6% while maintaining a high computational efficiency. Ablation studies further confirm the effectiveness of each module, indicating the strong practical potential of STFNet for wind farm operation and management. Full article

Entrepreneurship is recognised globally as the vehicle for economic development and poverty eradication, yet in developing economies, it is not receiving the support it deserves. Based on the institutional framework, this study explores its role in fostering the development of an entrepreneurial mindset in Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe. Being grounded in the interpretivist research philosophy and following an inductive qualitative research design, the study adopted a case study strategy. Data were collected through in- depth interviews with 12 participants, purposively selected from industry leaders and entrepreneurs. Thematic analysis was used to inductively generate contextual insights from the interaction between the regulatory, socio-economic, and cultural pillars of the institutional framework and individual capabilities. The findings show that entrepreneurship development in Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe, is influenced to a greater extent by the institutional framework, which is characterised by economic volatility, infrastructure gaps, and evolving regulatory demands. The formal institutional framework was noted to confer legitimacy while, at the same time, imposing obligations on institutions; informal institutional frameworks rooted in communal values, social capital, and professional bodies helped fill gaps in the formal framework. The study also demonstrates that entrepreneurial mindset development is an integrated output of continuous learning, strategic networking, and individual capability. In reinforcing the normative dimensions of institutional theory, it was noted that entrepreneurs do not only have profit-maximisation goals but also long-term sustainability and survival targets. The study contributes to scarce empirical research on the nexus between institutional framework and entrepreneurship development in emerging economies. The findings reinforce the need for an integrated approach that streamlines the regulatory process, strengthens infrastructure, supports capacity building, and recognises the role of the informal institutional network in enhancing entrepreneurship development. Even though the qualitative, cross-sectional design limits the generalizability of the study’s findings, the study offers insights into fostering entrepreneurship development in emerging markets. Full article

A study was conducted to evaluate the effect of neutral detergent fiber (NDF) levels of calf starter and weaning time on growth, rumen fermentation characteristics, serum metabolites, and rumen microbial diversity of Holstein calves. A total of 24 newly born male Holstein calves were randomly distributed to four groups in a completely randomized design with a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of NDF levels (14% and 24%) and weaning time (d 44 and d 54). There was no interaction between starter NDF levels and weaning time for any trait except rumen acetic acid in the immediate post-weaning phase (p = 0.013). Starter NDF levels had no effect on growth, feed intake, and hay intake. Late-weaned calves had greater (p = 0.050) weight gain in the pre-weaning phase whereas, early-weaned calves showed greater weight gain (p = 0.004) and starter intake (p = 0.004) in the post-weaning phase although overall weight gain, and starter and hay intakes were not affected by weaning time. Rumen pH, ammonia nitrogen, and most volatile fatty acids remained unaffected by starter NDF levels and weaning except isobutyric acid which was greater in calves fed 24% NDF starter (p = 0.001) in the immediate post-weaning and isovaleric acid which was greater in early-weaned calves (p = 0.044) at the end of experiment. Serum metabolites were largely affected (p < 0.05) by starter NDF levels and weaning time in the pre-weaning phase only. Alpha diversity of rumen microbes was greater and chaotic in 14% NDF starter group (early- and late-weaned) in the pre-weaning phase which converged in the immediate post-weaning phase and diverged on starter NDF basis at the end of experiment. Microbial ecology at phylum and genus levels composition were greatly driven by starter NDF levels in the pre-weaning phase, by weaning time in the immediate post-weaning phase, and two distinct bifurcated microbial ecologies based on starter NDF levels appeared at the end of experiment. In conclusion, the comparable growth with distinct microbial diversity but largely in favor of 24% NDF starter suggests that calves can be subjected to early weaning with 24% starter NDF levels for smooth transition from liquid to solid feed in Holstein calves. Full article

Uncertainties in generation and dynamic load behavior provide new problems for radial distribution systems (RDS) caused by the growing integration of renewable distributed generators (RDGs), including solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind turbines (WTs), as well as electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS). This article offers a thorough techno-economic evaluation of how to best distribute RDG resources (solar PV, wind, and EVCS) inside a 28-bus distribution test system in India, taking into account generation volatility due to the seasons. Optimization of installation and operating costs, enhancing voltage stability, and decreasing active power loss are done all at once using a new Catch Fish Optimization Algorithm (CFOA). Integrating beta and Weibull distributions, respectively, into the probabilistic modeling of solar irradiance and wind speed allows for economic analysis to adhere to recognized approaches from contemporary multi-objective optimization frameworks. The simulation findings confirm that the proposed CFOA-based placement method improves economic efficiency, decreases energy loss, and increases system performance. Full article

Some actinobacterial species have been reported to improve plant growth due to their roles as biostimulants and biological control agents. In this study, the effect of actinobacterial isolate 27, obtained from the rhizospheric soil of melon plants and identified as Streptomyces calvus, was evaluated on the growth of Arabidopsis thaliana and tomato plants. In Arabidopsis, in vitro assays showed that after seven days of interaction, isolate 27 increased fresh weight by 1.4-, 1.5-, and 2.3-fold and lateral root number by 1.7-, 1.3-, and 2.5-fold under physical contact and split-plate systems (MS and ISP2 media), respectively, compared with non-inoculated plants. An increased β-glucuronidase (GUS, encoded by the uidA gene) signal was observed in primary and lateral roots of the Arabidopsis DR5::uidA reporter line during both interaction types, suggesting the activation of auxin-responsive pathways. In addition, isolate 27 rescued the rhd6 (root hair defective 6) mutant phenotype, restoring root hair formation. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis revealed that isolate 27 emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including an alcohol and several sesquiterpenes, and that this profile changed during interaction with Arabidopsis plantlets. In soil-based pot assays, inoculation with isolate 27 significantly enhanced the development of Arabidopsis plants after 23 days, both when applied alone and in co-inoculation with Trichoderma atroviride. Furthermore, isolate 27 stimulated tomato plant growth, leading to significant increases in fresh and dry biomass, as well as shoot and root lengths after 28 days. Overall, these results demonstrate that S. calvus isolate 27 promotes plant growth and development through the production of bioactive compounds that modulate plant growth pathways, including hormonal responses, highlighting its potential as a bioinoculant for sustainable and productive agricultural systems. Full article

This study aimed to evaluate the aromatic potential of four new Monastrell-derived white grapevine genotypes (MC180, MC69, MT103, MV67) compared with Verdejo over four consecutive seasons (2020–2023), with particular emphasis on both free and glycosidically bound volatile compounds. This approach provided novel insight into the aromatic composition of emerging cultivars under warm climate conditions and their potential suitability for future viticultural use. Free and glycosidically bound volatile compounds were extracted and analyzed using Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). Differences in aroma profiles were observed among genotypes and seasons. MV67 and MC69 showed higher levels of monoterpenes and volatile phenols, suggesting enhanced floral and complex aromatic potential. Seasonal effects strongly influenced C6 compounds and norisoprenoids, highlighting the importance of climatic conditions in shaping grape aroma. Multifactorial analysis revealed that season had the greatest impact on most compound families, although genotype and its interaction with season were also significant. These results demonstrate that genotype–environment interactions play a key role in determining aromatic composition. The elevated levels of aroma precursors, particularly glycosidically bound compounds, indicate promising enological potential for producing fresh, aromatic white wines. Therefore, these new cultivars represent suitable alternatives for white wine production in warm climates. Full article

This study evaluated the effects of Nypa fruticans fruit pellet supplementation combined with different CP levels on rumen fermentation characteristics and CH₄ production using an in vitro gas production technique. A 3 × 4 factorial arrangement was used, consisting of three CP levels (12, 14, and 16%) and four levels of Nypa fruticans fruit pellet supplementation (0, 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5% of substrate dry matter), with incubation run included as a random effect in the statistical model. Rumen fluid from Thai native beef cattle was incubated under anaerobic conditions. Gas production kinetics, ruminal pH, ammonia–nitrogen (NH₃–N), protozoal populations, digestibility, volatile fatty acids (VFA), and CH₄ production were determined. Significant interactions between CP level and Nypa fruticans fruit pellet supplementation were observed for gas production kinetics. Ruminal pH was influenced by CP level at 24 h, while NH₃–N increased with higher CP levels but decreased with increasing supplementation. Protozoal populations were reduced by Nypa fruticans fruit pellets. Methane production was affected by CP level, Nypa fruticans fruit pellet supplementation, and their interaction. A clearer reduction was observed at 24 h, particularly at higher supplementation levels. At 24 h of incubation, total VFA, propionate, and butyrate concentrations increased with supplementation, whereas no clear effects were observed at 12 h. In vitro dry matter digestibility was affected at 24 h (p < 0.05), but no effect was observed at 48 h, while organic matter digestibility remained unchanged. In conclusion, Nypa fruticans fruit pellets, in combination with CP level, modified rumen fermentation patterns and were associated with lower CH₄ production under in vitro conditions, without negatively affecting digestibility. These findings suggest potential for further in vivo evaluation. Full article

This study proposes a novel dual-role weighting framework for dry port location selection, bridging the gap between commercial logistics efficiency and strategic disaster resilience. Designed to establish a new theoretical evaluation paradigm, the research utilizes the Fuzzy Rough SWARA (FR-SWARA) method and a 12-person expert panel to weigh a comprehensive set of 31 criteria under high-dimensional uncertainty. The findings reveal a decisive hierarchical shift, where spatial and infrastructure-related dimensions significantly outweigh traditional cost considerations. This empirical evidence substantiates the transition from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘Just-in-Case’ logistics architectures. Ultimately, the study reconceptualizes the dry port as a ‘strategic stabilizer’—a critical infrastructure node that absorbs systemic shocks and maintains supply chain continuity during diverse crises, including natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed weighting framework offers a robust theoretical roadmap for policy and managerial decision-making in volatile geographies. Full article

We introduce the Normalising Flow GARCH (NF-GARCH), a two-stage hybrid framework that enhances traditional GARCH models by replacing restrictive parametric innovation distributions with learned densities via normalising flows. Our approach preserves the interpretability of standard variance dynamics while addressing the common issue of innovation misspecification. In the first stage, we estimate standard GARCH variants (sGARCH, TGARCH, and gjrGARCH) to extract standardised residuals. In the second stage, a Masked Autoregressive Flow learns the underlying residual distribution, with samples from the flow subsequently driving the GARCH recursion for out-of-sample forecasting. Evaluated on 13 daily financial series (six FX pairs and seven equities), NF-GARCH demonstrates systematic, statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for skewed-t baselines. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests confirm superior performance specifically for gjrGARCH-sstd and sGARCH-sstd specifications. While the framework offers enhanced flexibility and generative realism, we observe that computational overhead is increased, and the log-variance specification of eGARCH exhibits instability when paired with flow-based innovations. These results suggest that while NF-GARCH effectively captures empirical tail behaviour in univariate settings, future research should explore conditional flow architectures and multivariate extensions to account for time-varying innovation shapes. For risk management, gains are most relevant where skewed-t baselines are used and where closer residual realism supports scenario analysis; effect sizes remain modest relative to model risk and implementation cost. Full article

Butterflies locate host sites using plant volatiles, while larval frass cues induce avoidance. This study investigated the olfactory responses of adult Papilio polytes to nine shared plant and frass volatiles across 1 × 10³ to 1 × 10⁶ ng load doses using electroantennography (EAG) and Y-tube olfactometer assays. EAG responses were significantly influenced by chemical composition, dose, and sex, as well as all their interactions. In contrast, behavioral choices were significantly driven only by chemical composition and its interaction with dose. Although females exhibited higher peripheral sensitivity than males, this physiological sexual dimorphism did not result in significant behavioral differences. Linalool, citronellal, and geraniol were identified as the most potent elicitors. While their single forms and binary blends elicited attraction or neutrality, the ternary mixture significantly repelled both sexes. These results demonstrate that VOC blend composition determines the direction of behavioral responses, with linalool playing a pivotal role in the transition from attraction to avoidance. These findings highlight the importance of shared plant–frass VOCs in host selection by oligophagous insects and provide a foundation for manipulating P. polytes behavior. Full article