Search Results (76)

Using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to observe slow ground deformation can be challenging due to many sources of error, with tropospheric phase delay and unwrapping errors being the most significant. While analytical methods, weather models, and data exist to mitigate tropospheric error, most of these techniques are unsuitable for all InSAR applications (e.g., complex tropospheric mixing in the tropics) or are deficient in spatial or temporal resolution. Likewise, there are methods for removing the unwrapping error, but they cannot resolve the true phase when there is a high prevalence (>40%) of unwrapping error in a set of interferograms. Applying tropospheric delay removal techniques is unnecessary for C-band Sentinel-1 InSAR time series studies, and the effect of unwrapping error can be minimized if the full dataset is utilized. We demonstrate that using interferograms with long temporal baselines (800 days to 1600 days) but very short perpendicular baselines (<5 m) (LTSPB) can lower the velocity detection threshold to 2 mm y⁻¹ to 3 mm y⁻¹ for long-term coherent permanent scatterers. The LTSPB interferograms can measure slow deformation rates because the expected differential phases are larger than those of small baselines and potentially exceed the typical noise amplitude while also reducing the sensitivity of the time series estimation to the noise sources. The method takes advantage of the Sentinel-1 mission length (2016 to present), which, for most regions, can yield up to 300 interferograms that meet the LTSPB baseline criteria. We demonstrate that low velocity detection can be achieved by comparing the expected LTSPB differential phase measurements to synthetic tests and tropospheric delay from the Global Navigation Satellite System. We then characterize the slow (~3 mm/y) ground deformation of the Socorro Magma Body, New Mexico, and the Tampa Bay Area using LTSPB InSAR analysis. The method we describe has implications for simplifying the InSAR time series processing chain and enhancing the velocity detection threshold. Full article

The monsoon is regarded as a key system influencing tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Western North Pacific (WNP). However, the relationship between WNP TC frequency (TCF) and the monsoon across different timescales remains incompletely understood. This study explores the interannual-scale relationship between WNP TCF and the WNP summer monsoon over the period 1982–2020. We found that the interannual variation in basin-scale TCF is dominated by dynamic factors, particularly lower troposphere vorticity and middle troposphere ascending motion, which are driven by the WNP summer monsoon. Enhanced monsoonal precipitation over the WNP intensifies convective heating, which acts as a diabatic heat source and triggers a Rossby wave response to the west. This response generates anomalous lower troposphere cyclonic circulation and ascending motion in the main TC development region. In turn, the strengthened WNP summer monsoon circulation further amplifies precipitation, establishing positive feedback between atmospheric circulation and convection. This mechanism establishes dynamic conditions favorable for TC genesis, thereby dominating the basin-scale interannual variation in TCF. Full article

Paleoclimate records have long documented the existence of multicentury hydroclimate anomalies in the Altiplano of South America. However, the causes and mechanisms of these extended events are still unknown. Here, we present a climate modeling experiment that explores the oceanic drivers and atmospheric mechanisms conducive to long-term precipitation variability in the southern Altiplano (18–25° S; 70–65 W; >3500 masl). We performed a series of 100-year-long idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured to repeat annually the oceanic and atmospheric forcing leading to the exceptionally humid austral summers of 1983/1984 and 2011/2012. The aim of these cyclical experiments was to evaluate if these specific conditions can sustain a century-long pluvial event in the Altiplano. Unlike the annual forcing, long-term negative precipitation trends are observed in the simulations, suggesting that the drivers of 1983/1984 and 2011/2012 wet summers are unable to generate a century-scale pluvial event. Our results show that an intensification of the anticyclonic circulation along with cold surface air anomalies in the southwestern Atlantic progressively reinforce the lower and upper troposphere features that prevent moisture transport towards the Altiplano. Prolonged drying is also observed under persistent La Niña conditions, which contradicts the well-known relationship between precipitation and ENSO at interannual timescales. Contrasting the hydroclimate responses between the Altiplano and the tropical Andes result from a sustained northward migration of the Atlantic trade winds, providing a useful analog for explaining the divergences in the Holocene records. This experiment suggests that the drivers of century-scale hydroclimate events in the Altiplano were more diverse than previously thought and shows how climate modeling can be used to test paleoclimate hypotheses, emphasizing the necessity of combining proxy data and numerical models to improve our understanding of past climates. Full article

Significant upwelling in the equatorial ocean influences complex ocean–atmosphere interactions and contributes to diurnal variations in the lower troposphere. This study compares the temperature and relative humidity data from radiosonde observations over the tropical Indian Ocean with those from the ERA5, highlighting the underestimation of the diurnal variations in the ERA5. Radiosonde measurements were conducted at 3 h intervals for approximately 24 h, from 31 May to 1 June 2023, to investigate the diurnal variations in the lower troposphere at two fixed locations: (1) 65°E and 8°S in the upwelling region (Station 8) from 28 to 29 May 2023, and (2) 65°E and 4°S outside the upwelling region (Station 4). The radiosonde observations reveal pronounced diurnal variations in temperature and relative humidity between 950 and 650 hPa. The maximum diurnal range (maximum minus minimum) for temperature is observed above 800 hPa, with Station 8 exhibiting 4.7 °C and Station 4 exhibiting 2.7 °C. For relative humidity, Station 8 shows a diurnal range of 84%, while at Station 4, notable variations are observed only below 650 hPa, reaching 76%. However, the ERA5 underestimates the diurnal variations both within and outside the upwelling region. This underestimation is particularly evident between 850 and 750 hPa and is more pronounced within the upwelling region, where the diurnal range is larger. The diurnal ranges calculated from the ERA5 for 2004–2023 suggest that the reanalysis dataset exhibits limitations in capturing diurnal variations, particularly over the upwelling region. This report highlights the need for more in situ observations of the atmospheric variables to better represent diurnal variations in the tropical Indian Ocean. Full article

Cyclone Mocha, classified as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS), followed an unusual northeastward trajectory while exhibiting a well-defined eyewall structure. It experienced rapid intensification (RI) before making landfall along the Myanmar coast. It caused heavy rainfall (~90 mm) and gusty winds (~115 knots) over the coastal regions of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries, such as the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. The factors responsible for the RI of the cyclone in lower latitudes, such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), vertical wind shear (VWS), and mid-tropospheric moisture content, are studied using the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST and National Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Unified Model (NCUM) global analysis. The results show that SST and TCHP values of 30 °C and 100 (KJ cm⁻²) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) favored cyclogenesis. However, a VWS (ms⁻¹) and relative humidity (RH; %) within the range of 10 ms⁻¹ and >70% also provided a conducive environment for the low-pressure system to transform into the ESCS category. The physical mechanism of RI and recurvature of the Mocha cyclone have been investigated using forecast products and compared with Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) satellite observations. The key results indicate that a dry air intrusion associated with a series of troughs and ridges at a 500 hPa level due to the western disturbance (WD) during that time was very active over the northern part of India and adjoining Pakistan, which brought north-westerlies at the 200 hPa level. The existence of troughs at 500 and 200 hPa levels are significantly associated with a Rossby wave pattern over the mid-latitude that creates the baroclinic zone and favorable for the recurvature and RI of Mocha cyclone clearly represented in the NCUM analysis. Moreover the Q-vector analysis and steering flow (SF) emphasize the vertical motion and recurvature of the Mocha cyclone so as to move in a northeast direction, and this has been reasonably well represented by the NCUM model analysis and the 24, 7-, and 120 h forecasts. Additionally, a quantitative assessment of the system indicates that the model forecasts of TC tracks have an error of 50, 70, and 100 km in 24, 72, and 120 h lead times. Thus, this case study underscores the capability of the NCUM model in representing the physical mechanisms behind the recurving and RI over the BoB. Full article

From a traditional point of view, the growth of a tropical cyclone (TC) requires that the vertical wind shear (VWS) should be weak. However, Typhoon Rammasun (2014) underwent a rapid intensification (RI) even in the presence of a strong VWS background. This study investigates the counterintuive phenomenon, using the multiscale window transform (MWT) and the theory of canonical transfer. For the first time, the diagnostic results show that the strong VWS provided additional available potential energy (APE) to the mid-to-upper troposphere through baroclinic instability. This APE was converted into kinetic energy (KE) via buoyancy conversion and transported to the lower troposphere by pressure gradient, increasing the lower-troposphere wind speed. The strong VWS facilitated the RI in two main ways. First, it was via baroclinic instability. Strong VWS facilitated the transfer of APE from the background flow window to the typhoon scale window, supplying additional APE to the mid-to-upper troposphere, hence enhancing the warm-core structure. Second, the VWS direction shifted from an east-west orientation to a north-south orientation. This directional change put the typhoon’s vertical alignment from a westward tilt back to a straighter one. This effectively suppressed the destructive effects of the asymmetric circulation, and promoted the conversion of APE into KE via buoyancy conversion, hence contributed to the RI. Full article

This study explores how the variation of Gravity Waves (GWs) is modified and intensified during tropical cyclones using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data. GWs play a vital role in understanding tropical cyclone dynamics due to their connection with energy and momentum transfer in the atmosphere. Different issues related to six tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal from 2019 to 2022, spanning different intensities and seasonal conditions, are analyzed. Using temperature and pressure data across 37 vertical levels, several variables like perturbation temperature and potential energy $E_p$ profiles associated with GWs are computed. Spatial temperature distributions and $E_p$ exhibit spiral formations resembling cyclone structures with significant altitude-dependent variations. Temperature signatures are observed at altitudes between 1.4 km and 5.8 km, with Pressure Levels (PLs) of 850 hPa and 500 hPa, respectively, varying by season and intensity, while $E_p$ signatures are prominent between 15.25 km and and 20.77 km, with PLs of 125 hPa and PL 50 hPa, respectively, peaking at 16.58 km and PL 100 hPa for most cyclones, except Cyclone Fani, which peaked at 18.72 km with a PL of 70 hPa. $E_p$ values range from 10 to 25 J/kg, reflecting strong GW–cyclone interactions. These findings highlight the influence of cyclone intensity, seasonality, and atmospheric dynamics on GW behavior, enhancing the understanding of energy transfer processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Full article

To evaluate the contributions of different forcings to the temperature and atmospheric composition changes between 1980 and 2020, we exploited the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3. The study examined ozone content and atmospheric temperature response to (1) ozone-depleting substances; (2) greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean surface temperature, and sea ice coverage; (3) solar irradiance; and (4) stratospheric aerosol loading and, separately, (5) greenhouse gas concentrations, (6) ocean surface temperature and sea ice coverage, and (7) NO_x surface emissions. To evaluate the impacts of specific factors, we performed model runs driven by each factor (1–7) variability as well as a reference experiment that accounted for the influence of all factors simultaneously. We identified the relative contribution of different factors to the evolution of the temperature and ozone content of the lower troposphere and stratosphere from 1980 to 2020. The model results were in good agreement with the reanalyses (MERRA2 and ERA5). We showed that stratospheric ozone depletion before the Montreal Protocol introduction and partial recovery after that were chiefly driven by ODS. Stratospheric aerosol from major volcanic eruptions caused only short-term (up to 5 years) ozone decline. Increased greenhouse gas emissions dominate the ongoing long-term stratospheric cooling as well as tropospheric and surface warming. Solar irradiance contributed to short-term fluctuations but had a minimal long-term impact. Furthermore, our analysis of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere underscores the complex interplay of solar radiation with volcanic, oceanic, and atmospheric factors, revealing significant altitudinal distributions of temperature and ozone responses to solar activity. Our findings advocate further innovative methodologies to take into account the nonlinearity of the atmospheric processes. Full article

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR. Full article

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction remains a major operational challenge. Using multiple satellite datasets and a state-of-the-art reanalysis dataset, this study identifies developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the western North Pacific from June to November of 2000–2019 and conducts composite analyses of their water vapor budget components and relevant dynamic–thermodynamic parameters in the Lagrangian framework following three-day disturbance tracks. Both groups of disturbances have a similar initial 850 hPa synoptic-scale relative vorticity, while the water vapor budget of developing disturbances exhibits distinct stage-wise evolution characteristics from non-developing cases. Three days prior to TC genesis, developing cases are already associated with significantly higher total precipitable water (TPW), vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC), and precipitation, of which TPW is the most important parameter to differentiate two groups of disturbances. One day later, all the water vapor budget components (i.e., TPW, VIMFC, precipitation, and evaporation) strengthened, linked with the enhancement of the mid-to lower-tropospheric vortices. A negative radial gradient of evaporation occurs, suggesting the beginning of the wind−evaporation feedback. On the day prior to TC genesis, the water vapor budget components, as well as the mid-to lower-tropospheric vortices, continue to intensify, eventually leading to TC genesis. By contrast, non-developing disturbances are associated with a drier environment and weaker VIMFC, precipitation, and evaporation during the three-day evolution. All these factors are not favorable for the intensification of the mid-to lower-tropospheric vortices; thus, the disturbances fail to upgrade to TCs. The results may shed light on TC genesis prediction. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause severe wind and rain hazards. Unusual TC tracks and their extreme precipitation forecasts have become two difficult problems faced by conventional models of primitive equations. The case study in this paper finds that the numerical computation of the climatological component in conventional models restricts the prediction of unusual TC tracks. The climatological component should be a forcing quantity, not a predictor in the numerical integration of all models. Anomaly-based variable models can overcome the bottleneck of forecast time length or the one-week forecasting barrier, which is limited to less than one week for conventional models. The challenge in extreme precipitation forecasting is how to physically get the vertical velocity. The anomalous moisture stress modulus (AMSM), as an indicator of heavy rainfall presented in this paper, considers the two conditions associated with vertical velocity and anomalous specific humidity in the lower troposphere. Vertical velocity is produced by the orthogonal collision of horizontal anomalous airflows. Full article

This study presented an analysis of the geometric and optical properties of cirrus clouds with data produced by Compact Cloud-Aerosol Lidar (ComCAL) over Koror, Palau (7.3°N, 134.5°E), in the Tropical Western Pacific region. The lidar measurement dataset covers April 2018 to May 2019 and includes data collected during March, July and August 2022. The results show that cirrus clouds occur approximately 47.9% of the lidar sampling time, predominantly between altitudes of 15 and 18 km. Seasonal variations in cirrus top height closely align with those of the cold point tropopause. Most cirrus clouds exhibit low cloud optical depth (COD < 0.1), with an annual mean depolarization ratio of 31 ± 19%. Convective-forming cirrus clouds during the summer monsoon season exhibit a larger size by notably lower values in terms of color ratio. Extremely thin cirrus clouds (COD < 0.005) constituting 1.6% of total cirrus occurrences are frequently observed at 1–2 km above the cold point, particularly during winter and summer, suggesting significant stratosphere–troposphere exchange. The coldest and highest tropopause over Palau is persistent during winter, and related to the pathway of tropospheric air entering the stratosphere through the cold trap. In summer, the extremely thin cirrus above the cold point is likely correlated with equatorial Kelvin waves induced by western Pacific monsoon convection. Full article

In this study, the multi-year data of meteorology and O₃ from remote sensing and ground observations are applied to characterize the 3-D changes of O₃ in the troposphere over central and eastern China (CEC) induced by the tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical and subtropical ocean regions over Northwest Pacific. The CEC-regional average of near-surface O₃ levels is significantly elevated with 6.0 ppb in the large coverage by the TCs in the subtropical ocean, while the TCs in the tropical ocean alter near-surface O₃ weakly, indicating the latitudinal-located TCs in the subtropical offshore ocean could largely influence the O₃ variations over CEC. The sub-seasonal change with the positive and negative anomalies of near-surface O₃ is induced by the tropical TCs from June to July and from August to October. The peripheral circulation of TCs in the subtropical offshore ocean persistently enhances the O₃ concentrations over CEC during the season of East Asian summer monsoons. The positive O₃ anomalies maintain from the entire troposphere to the lower stratosphere over CEC in the peripheries of subtropical TCs, while the tropical TCs cause the positive O₃ anomalies merely in the lower troposphere. The O₃ transport and accumulation, photochemical production and stratospheric intrusion are climatologically confirmed as the major meteorological mechanisms of TCs affecting the O₃ variations. This study reveals that the downward transport of stratospheric O₃ of TCs in the subtropical ocean exerts a large impact on the atmospheric environment over CEC, while the regional O₃ transport and photochemical productions dominate the lower troposphere over CEC with less impact of stratospheric intrusion from the TCs in the tropical ocean region. These results present the climatology of tropospheric O₃ anomalies in China induced by the TCs over the Northwest Pacific with enhancing our comprehension of the meteorological impact on O₃ variations over the East Asian monsoon region. Full article

By considering the uncertainties in the initial field, model physical processes, and lateral boundary conditions, the Shanghai Weather And Risk Model System-Ensemble Prediction System (SWARMS-EN) is constructed. According to the prediction results of typhoon Muifa (2022), the daily track error of SWARMS-EN within 5 days is 70.6 km, 142.2 km, 129.1 km, 174.5 km, and 203.5 km, respectively. When compared with the Typhoon Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System (TEDAPS) and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in homogeneous conditions, SWARMS-EN performs better than TEDAPS within 72 h and better than GEFS beyond 72 h in track forecasting. This indicates an improvement in forecasting accuracy. The ensemble spread within two days is less than the root mean square error (RMSE), according to an analysis of the relationship between ensemble RMSE and spread, which shows that SWARMS-EN has no apparent systematic bias overall. The system has improved the ensemble RMSE and spread, indicating that it can better represent the uncertainty of the forecast and produce more reliable forecasts. Additionally, SWARMS-EN provides the landfall forecast five days in advance. The ensemble-based analysis suggests that the large-scale circulation is the primary factor contributing to the forecast differences among members, and the strong steering flow provides an indication of the landfalling forecast. The analysis of the ensemble characteristics of the initial field indicates that the initial perturbation between the wind field and the temperature field in the dynamically unstable region (such as near a tropical cyclone) exhibits flow dependence, and the small perturbation shows continuity throughout the entire troposphere. The distribution of ensemble spread and disturbance energy exhibited a reasonable growth stage as the forecast lead time increased. Disturbance internal energy dominated the lower troposphere, while the upper troposphere was mainly characterized by disturbance kinetic energy. Disturbance kinetic energy played a leading role in the evolution process. This conclusion further confirms the importance of paying attention to the initial small perturbations near TC in order to optimize the initial perturbation. Full article

This work investigates the inter-model diversity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s (PDO) impact on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from the historical simulation of twenty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The impact of the PDO is expressed as the TCF difference between the positive and negative PDO phases. The comparison between the models with high PDO skill and low PDO skill shows that the PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific plays an important role in changing the large-scale atmospheric dynamic fields for TC genesis and, thus, the TCF over the WNP. This SST gradient also significantly contributes to the inter-model spread of PDO’s impact on TCF across the 22 CMIP6 models. We, therefore, stress that the PDO-related eastward SST gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific triggers the lower troposphere westerly and eastward extending of the monsoon trough over the WNP. The moistening of the atmosphere and enhancing ascending motion in the mid-troposphere promote convection, leading to the easterly wind anomaly over the upper troposphere, which reduces the vertical wind shear. Those favorable dynamic conditions consistently promote the TC formation over the southeastern part of the Western North Pacific. Our results highlight that PDO could impact the WNP TCF through its associated tropical SST gradient. Full article