Search Results (37)

Despite global efforts to address climate change, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are still on the rise. While carbon dioxide is essential for life on Earth, its increasing concentration due to human activities poses severe environmental and health risks. Therefore, accurately and efficiently predicting CO₂ emissions is essential. Hence, this research delves deeply into the prediction of CO₂ emissions by examining various deep learning models utilizing time series data to identify carbon dioxide levels in Oman. First, four important production materials of Oman (oil, gas, cement, and flaring), which have a great impact on CO₂ emissions, were selected. Then, the time series related to the release of CO₂ was collected from 1964 to 2022. After data collection, preprocessing was performed, in which outliers were removed and corrected, and data that had not been measured were completed using interpolation. Then, by dividing the data into two sections, education (1946–2004) and test (2022–2005) and creating scenarios, predictions were made. By creating four scenarios and modeling with two independent GRU and LSTM models and a hybrid LSTM-GRU model, annual carbon was predicted for Oman. The results were evaluated with three criteria: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient (r). The evaluations showed that the hybrid LSTM-GRU model with an error of 2.104 tons has the best performance compared to the rest of the models. By identifying key contributors to carbon footprints, these models can guide targeted interventions to reduce emissions. They can highlight the impact of industrial activities on per capita emissions, enabling policymakers to design more effective strategies. Therefore, in order to reduce pollution and increase the productivity of factories, using an advanced hybrid model, it is possible to identify the carbon footprint and make accurate predictions for different countries. Full article

Efficient traffic management in urban areas represents a key challenge for modern cities, particularly in the context of sustainable development and reducing negative environmental impacts. This paper explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in optimizing urban traffic through a combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and predictive analytics. The focus is on simulating the traffic network in Belgrade (Serbia, Europe), where RL algorithms, such as Deep Q-Learning and Proximal Policy Optimization, are used for dynamic traffic signal control. The model optimized traffic signal operations at intersections with high traffic volumes using real-time data from IoT sensors, computer vision-enabled cameras, third-party mobile usage data and connected vehicles. In addition, implemented predictive analytics leverage time series models (LSTM, ARIMA) and graph neural networks (GNNs) to anticipate traffic congestion and bottlenecks, enabling initiative-taking decision-making. Special attention is given to challenges such as data transmission delays, system scalability, and ethical implications, with proposed solutions including edge computing and distributed RL models. Results of the simulation demonstrate significant advantages of AI application in 370 traffic signal control devices installed in fixed timing systems and adaptive timing signal systems, including an average reduction in waiting times by 33%, resulting in a 16% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and improved safety in intersections (measured by an average reduction in the number of traffic accidents). A limitation of this paper is that it does not offer a simulation of the system’s adaptability to temporary traffic surges during mass events or severe weather conditions. The key finding is that integrating AI into an urban traffic network that consists of fixed-timing traffic lights represents a sustainable approach to improving urban quality of life in large cities like Belgrade and achieving smart city objectives. Full article

The imperative of decarbonization in maritime shipping is underscored by the sector’s sizeable contribution to worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. ShipNetSim, an open-source multi-ship simulator created in this study, combines state-of-the-art hydrodynamic modeling, dynamic ship-following techniques, real-time environmental data, and cybersecurity threat simulation to quantify and evaluate marine fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. ShipNetSim uses well-validated approaches, such as the Holtrop resistance and B-Series propeller analysis with a ship-following model inspired by traffic flow theory, augmented with a novel module simulating cyber threats (e.g., GPS spoofing) to evaluate operational efficiency and resilience. In a case study simulation of the journey of an S175 container vessel from Savannah to Algeciras, the simulator estimated the total fuel consumption to be 478 tons of heavy fuel oil and approximately 1495 tons of CO₂ emissions for a trip of 7 days and 15 h within 13.1% of reported operational estimates. A twelve-month sensitivity analysis revealed a marginal 1.5% range of fuel consumption variation, demonstrating limiting variability for different environmental conditions. ShipNetSim not only yields realistic predictions of energy consumption and emissions but is also demonstrated to be a credible framework for the evaluation of operational scenarios—including speed adjustment, optimized routing, and alternative fuel strategies—that directly contribute to reducing the marine carbon footprint. This capability supports industry stakeholders and policymakers in achieving compliance with global decarbonization targets, such as those established by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Full article

Steam traps are essential for industrial systems, ensuring steam quality and energy efficiency by removing condensate and preventing steam leakage. However, their failure results in energy loss, operational disruptions, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a novel predictive maintenance system for steam traps that integrates statistical time series features and transformer encoder–decoder models for fault diagnosis and visualization. The proposed system combines IoT sensor data, operational parameters, open data (e.g., weather information and public holiday calendars), machine learning, and two-dimensional diagnostic projection to improve reliability and interpretability. Experiments were conducted in two industrial plants: an aluminum processing plant and a food manufacturing plant, and the system achieved superior defect detection accuracy and diagnostic reliability compared to existing methods. The transformer-based model outperformed traditional methods, including random forest, gradient boosting, and variational autoencoder, in classification and clustering. The system also demonstrated an average 6.92% reduction in thermal energy across both sites, highlighting its potential to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. This research highlights the transformative impact of AI-based predictive maintenance technologies in industrial operations and provides a framework for sustainable manufacturing practices. Full article

The automotive industry faces continuing challenges with regard to advancing sustainability and reducing energy consumption and vehicle emissions. South Africa accounts for half of the total CO₂ emissions in Africa and is the world’s 12th-largest CO₂ emitter. In this study, we aimed to develop a model combining autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMAs) with long short-term memory (LSTM) to determine the best fit for prediction using the lowest root mean square error configuration and enhance energy consumption in automotive component manufacturing. The ARIMA model dissects time-series data into the components of level, trend, and seasonality, while the automatic ARIMA function refines the model parameters. Simultaneously, utilizing historical data, the LSTM model uses specific algorithms to predict future electricity generation and carbon emissions for the automotive component’s manufacturing sector. According to our results, the predicted variables’ interdependence revealed an enhancement in energy intensity for vehicle body part products equal to 29%, a cumulative energy savings of 7.22%, and an increase in energy efficiency equal to 16.25%. Our model’s predictive fitness holds significant potential for allowing automotive component manufacturers to make informed economic and technical decisions toward the development of low-carbon products. Critically, improved energy efficiency in automotive component manufacturing activities is critical for lowering energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, sustainable transportation, and production costs. Full article

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) serves as the cornerstone of European climate policy, providing a critical mechanism for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Accurate forecasting of the carbon allowance prices within the market is essential for policymakers, enterprises, and investors. To address the need for interval-valued time series modeling and forecasting in the carbon market, this paper proposes a Transformer-based multi-task learning framework that integrates online news and search engine data information to forecast interval-valued EU carbon allowance futures prices. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves superior predictive accuracy for short-term forecasting and remains robust under high market volatility and economic policy uncertainty compared to single-task learning benchmarks. Furthermore, ablation experiments indicate that incorporating news sentiment intensity and search index effectively enhances the framework’s predictive performance. Interpretability analysis highlights the critical role of specific temporal factors, while the time-varying variable importance analysis further underscores the influence of carbon allowance close prices and key energy market variables and also recognizes the contributions of news sentiment. In summary, this study provides valuable insights for policy management, risk hedging, and portfolio decision-making related to interval-valued EU carbon prices and offers a robust forecasting tool for carbon market prediction. Full article

As an important part of industrial production, the optimization of circulating water systems is of great significance for improving energy efficiency and reducing operating costs. However, traditional optimization methods lack real-time and dynamic adjustment capabilities and often cannot fully cope with the complex and changeable industrial environment and energy demands. Advances in computer technology can enable people to use machine learning models to process information and data and ultimately help simplify simulation and optimization. In this paper, the circulating water system of a Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit is optimized and evaluated based on process simulation and machine learning, adopting 284 sets of industrial operating data. The cooler network of the system is modified from a parallel structure to a series mode, and the effect is clarified using the ASPEN HYSYS software V12. Meanwhile, the fan power of the cooling tower is predicted by employing an optimized Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) model, and the influence of the parallel-to-series transformation on the fan power is discussed. It is shown that the computer modeling results are in coincidence with the industrial data. Converting the parallel design to a series arrangement of the cooler network can significantly decrease the water consumption, with a reduction of 11%. The fan power of the cooling tower is also reduced by 8% after the optimization. Considering the changes in both water consumption and fan power, the saved total economic cost is 8.65%, and the decreased gas emission is 2142.06 kg/h. By building the optimization prediction system, the real-time sequencing and monitoring of equipment parameters are realized, which saves costs and improves process safety. Full article

With the rapid development of industrial automation and intelligence, the consumption of resources and the environmental impact of production processes cannot today be ignored. Today, natural gas, as a commonly used energy source, produces significantly lower emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from combustion than coal and oil, and can be further purified to remove the small amount of impurities it contains, such as sulphur compounds. Therefore, purified natural gas (hereinafter referred to as purified gas), as a clean energy source, plays an important role in realising sustainable development. At the same time, It becomes more and more important to dispatch purified gas resources reasonably and accurately, and the paramount factor is that the load of purified gas needs to be predicted accurately. Therefore, this paper proposes a Transformer–GRU-based hourly prediction model for purified gas. The model uses the Transformer model for data fusion and feature extraction, and then combines the time series processing capability of the Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) model to capture long-term dependencies and short-term dynamic changes in time series data. In this paper, the purified gas load data of Chongqing Municipality in 2020 was first preprocessed, and then divided into daily and hourly load datasets according to the measurement step. Meanwhile, considering the influence of temperature factor, the experimental dataset is subdivided according to whether it includes temperature data or not, and then the Transformer–GRU model was built for prediction, respectively. The results show that, compared with the Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network (DA-RNN) and the Transformer and GRU models alone, the Transformer–GRU model exhibits good performance in terms of the coefficient of determination, the average absolute percentage error, and mean square error, which can well meet the requirement of hourly prediction accuracy and has greater application value. Full article

The accurate prediction of gas emissions has important guiding significance for the prevention and control of gas disasters in order to further improve the prediction accuracy of gas emissions in the mining face. According to the absolute gas emission monitoring data of the 1417 working face in a coal mine in Shaanxi Province, a GA-VMD-SSA-LSTM gas emission prediction model (GVSL) based on genetic algorithm (GA)-optimized variational mode decomposition (VMD) and sparrow search algorithm (SSA)-optimized long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed. Firstly, a VMD evaluation standard for evaluating the amount of decomposition loss is proposed. Under this standard, the GA is used to find the optimal parameters of the VMD. Then, the SSA is used to optimize the key parameters of the LSTM to establish a GVSL prediction model. The model predicts each component and finally superimposes the prediction results for each component to obtain the final gas emission result. The results show that the accuracy of the evaluation indexes of the GVSL model and VMD-LSTM model, as well as the SSA-LSTM model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, are compared and analyzed horizontally and vertically under three scenarios with prediction sets of 121,94 and 57 groups. The GVSL model has the best prediction effect, and its fitting degree R2 values are 0.95, 0.96, and 0.99, which confirms the effectiveness of the proposed GVSL model for the time series prediction of gas emission in the mining face. Full article

Nitrogen oxides (NOxs) are some of the most important hazardous air pollutants from industry. In China, the annual NOx emission in the waste gas of industrial sources is about 8.957 million tons, while power plants remain the largest anthropogenic source of NOx emissions, and the precise control of NOx in power plants is crucial. However, due to inherent issues with measurement and pipelines in coal-fired power plants, there is typically a delay of about three minutes in NOx measurements, bringing mismatch between its control and measurement. Measuring delays in NOx from power plants can lead to excessive ammonia injection or failure to meet environmental standards for NOx emissions. To address the issue of NOx measurement delays, this study introduced a hybrid boosting model suitable for on-site implementation. The model could serve as a feedforward signal in SCR control, compensating for NOx measurement delays and enabling precise ammonia injection for accurate denitrification in power plants. The model combines generation mechanism and data-driven approaches, enhancing its prediction accuracy through the categorization of time-series data into linear, nonlinear, and exogenous regression components. In this study, a time-based method was proposed for analyzing the correlations between variables in denitration systems and NOx concentrations. This study also introduced a new evaluation indicator, part of R² (PR2), which focused on the prediction effect at turning points. Finally, the proposed model was applied to actual data from a 330 MW power plant, showing excellent predictive accuracy, particularly for one-minute forecasts. For 3 min prediction, compared to predictions made by ARIMA, the R-squared (R²) and PR2 were increased by 3.6% and 30.6%, respectively, and the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were decreased by 9.4% and 9.1%, respectively. These results confirmed the accuracy and applicability of the integrated model for on-site implementation as a 3 min advanced prediction soft sensor in power plants. Full article

Urbanization is growing at a rapid pace, and this is being reflected in the rising energy consumption from fossil fuels, which is contributing significantly to greenhouse gas impacts and carbon emissions (CE). Aiming at the problems of the time delay, inconsistency, uneven spatial coverage scale, and low precision of the current regional carbon emissions from energy consumption accounting statistics, this study builds a precise model for estimating the carbon emissions from regional energy consumption and analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics. Firstly, in order to estimate the carbon emissions resulting from energy consumption, a fixed effects model was built using data on province energy consumption and NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime lighting data. Secondly, the PRD urban agglomeration was selected as the case study area to estimate the carbon emissions from 2012 to 2020 and predict the carbon emissions from 2021 to 2023. Then, their multi-scale spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed through trends and hotspots. Lastly, the influence factors of CE from 2012 to 2020 were examined with the OLS, GWR, GTWR, and MGWR models, as well as a ridge regression to enhance the MGWR model. The findings indicate that, from 2012 to 2020, the carbon emissions in the PRD urban agglomeration were characterized by the non-equilibrium feature of “high in the middle and low at both ends”; from 2021 to 2023, the central and eastern regions saw the majority of its high carbon emission areas, the east saw the region with the highest rate of growth, the east and the periphery of the high value area were home to the area of medium values, while the southern, central, and northern regions were home to the low value areas; carbon emissions were positively impacted by population, economics, land area, and energy, and they were negatively impacted by science, technology, and environmental factors. This study could provide technical support for the long-term time-series monitoring and remote sensing inversion of the carbon emissions from energy consumption in large-scale, complex urban agglomerations. Full article

Addressing common challenges such as limited indicators, poor adaptability, and imprecise modeling in gas pre-warning systems for driving faces, this study proposes a hybrid predictive and pre-warning model grounded in time-series analysis. The aim is to tackle the effects of broad application across diverse mines and insufficient data on warning accuracy. Firstly, we introduce an adaptive normalization (AN) model for standardizing gas sequence data, prioritizing recent information to better capture the time-series characteristics of gas readings. Coupled with the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model, AN demonstrates superior forecasting performance compared to other standardization techniques. Next, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used for feature extraction, guiding the selection of the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) order. Minimal decomposition errors validate the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, enhancements to the transformer framework are made to manage non-linearities, overcome gradient vanishing, and effectively analyze long time-series sequences. To boost versatility across different mining scenarios, the Optuna framework facilitates multiparameter optimization, with xgbRegressor employed for accurate error assessment. Predictive outputs are benchmarked against Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), GRU, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), where the hybrid model achieves an R-squared value of 0.980975 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.000149, highlighting its top performance. To cope with data scarcity, bootstrapping is applied to estimate the confidence intervals of the hybrid model. Dimensional analysis aids in creating real-time, relative gas emission metrics, while persistent anomaly detection monitors sudden time-series spikes, enabling unsupervised early alerts for gas bursts. This model demonstrates strong predictive prowess and effective pre-warning capabilities, offering technological reinforcement for advancing intelligent coal mine operations. Full article

The relationship between estimating traffic flow and evaluating pollutant emissions lies in understanding how vehicular traffic patterns affect air quality. Traffic flow estimation is a complex field that involves a variety of analytical techniques to understand, predict, and manage the flow of vehicles on road networks. Different types of analyses commonly employed in this area are statistical analysis (e.g., descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, time series analysis), mathematical modeling (macroscopic models, microscopic models, mesoscopic models), computational methods (e.g., simulation modeling, machine learning, and AI techniques), geospatial analysis (e.g., geographic information systems (GISs), spatial data analysis), network analysis (e.g., graph theory and network flow models). In sensor network setups, the strategic placement of sensors is crucial, primarily due to the challenges posed by limited energy supplies, restricted storage capabilities, and the demands on processing and communication, all of which significantly impact maintenance costs and hardware limitations. To mitigate the burden on processing and communication, it is essential to deploy a limited number of sensors strategically. In practical applications, achieving an optimal layout of physical sensors (i.e., placing sensors within the network in such a way as to meet a specific optimality criterion, such as identifying the minimum number of sensors required to ensure the ability to design reliable state observers capable of reconstructing the network’s state based on the available data) is essential for the accurate monitoring of large-scale systems, including traffic flow or the distribution networks of water and gas. In the context of traffic systems, addressing the challenge of full link flow observability, that is, the ability to accurately monitor and assess the flow of entities (i.e., vehicles) across all the links or pathways within a network, entails selecting the smallest number of traffic sensors from a larger set to install. The goal is to choose a subset of p sensors, which may include redundancies, from a pool of $n>>p$ potential sensors. This is conducted to maintain the structural observability of the entire traffic network. This concept pertains to deducing the complete internal state (traffic volume on each road link in the network) from external outputs and inputs (measurements from sensors). The traditional concept of system observability serves as a criterion for sensor placement. This article presents the development of a simulated annealing heuristic to address the selection problem. The selected sensors are then applied to construct a Luenberger observer, a mathematical construct used in control theory to accurately estimate the internal state of a dynamic system based on its inputs and outputs. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, and a performance analysis using a digital twin of a transport network, designed using the Aimsun Next software, are also carried out to assess traffic flow and associated pollutant emissions. In particular, we examine a traffic network comprising 21 roads. We address the sensor selection problem by identifying an optimal set of six sensors, which facilitates the design of a Luenberger observer. This observer enables the reconstruction of traffic flow across the network with minimal estimation error. Furthermore, by integrating this observer with data from the Aimsun Next software, we assess the pollutant emissions related to traffic flow. The results indicate a high accuracy in estimating pollutant levels. Full article

Marine diesel engines are essential for safe navigation. By predicting the operating conditions of diesel engines, the performance of marine diesel engines can be improved, failures can be prevented to reduce maintenance costs, and emissions can be controlled to protect the environment. To this end, this paper proposes a hybrid neural network (HNN) prediction model (CNN-BiLSTM-Attention) based on deep learning (DL) for predicting the exhaust gas temperature (EGT) of marine diesel engines. CNN is used to extract features from time-series data, BiLSTM is used to predict the time series through modeling, and Attention is used to improve the accuracy and robustness of fault prediction. Moreover, through comparison experiments with other neural network prediction models, it has been proven that the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention method is more accurate. This article also presents an approach to fault prediction by integrating the Mahalanobia distance and the mathematical model. Based on the Mahalanobia distance between the prediction result and the actual value, the function mapping method combined with the criterion is used to set the alarm value and threshold of the monitoring indicators, and the failure data set is used for experimental verification. The results indicate that the approach presented in this article can accurately realize the operating condition monitoring and fault early warning of marine diesel engines, which provides a new way of thinking for the research of fault early warning and health management of marine diesel engines. Full article

Solar irradiation (Rs) is the electromagnetic radiation energy emitted by the Sun. It plays a crucial role in sustaining life on Earth by providing light, heat, and energy. Furthermore, it serves as a key driver of Earth’s climate and weather systems, influencing the distribution of heat across the planet, shaping global air and ocean currents, and determining weather patterns. Variations in Rs levels have significant implications for climate change and long-term climate trends. Moreover, Rs represents an abundant and renewable energy resource, offering a clean and sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. By harnessing solar energy, we can actively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the utilization of Rs comes with its own challenges that must be addressed. One problem is its variability, which makes it difficult to predict and plan for consistent solar energy generation. Its intermittent nature also poses difficulties in meeting continuous energy demand unless appropriate energy storage or backup systems are in place. Integrating large-scale solar energy systems into existing power grids can present technical challenges. Rs levels are influenced by various factors; understanding these factors is crucial for various applications, such as renewable energy planning, climate modeling, and environmental studies. Overcoming the associated challenges requires advancements in technology and innovative solutions. Measuring and harnessing Rs for various applications can be achieved using various devices; however, the expense and scarcity of measuring equipment pose challenges in accurately assessing and monitoring Rs levels. In order to address this, alternative methods have been developed with which to estimate Rs, including artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) models, like neural networks, kernel algorithms, tree-based models, and ensemble methods. To demonstrate the impact of feature selection methods on Rs predictions, we propose a Multivariate Time Series (MVTS) model using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) with a decision tree (DT), Pearson correlation (Pr), logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting Models (GBM), and a random forest (RF). Our article introduces a novel framework that integrates various models and incorporates overlooked factors. This framework offers a more comprehensive understanding of Recursive Feature Elimination and its integrations with different models in multivariate solar radiation forecasting. Our research delves into unexplored aspects and challenges existing theories related to solar radiation forecasting. Our results show reliable predictions based on essential criteria. The feature ranking may vary depending on the model used, with the RF Regressor algorithm selecting features such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity for specific months. The DT algorithm may yield a slightly different set of selected features. Despite the variations, all of the models exhibit impressive performance, with the LR model demonstrating outstanding performance with low RMSE (0.003) and the highest R2 score (0.002). The other models also show promising results, with RMSE scores ranging from 0.006 to 0.007 and a consistent R2 score of 0.999. Full article