Search Results (15)

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas with a significant impact on short- and medium-term climate forcing, and its atmospheric concentration has been increasing rapidly in recent decades. This study aims to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric methane concentrations between 2019 and 2025, focusing on comparisons between regions characterized by high and low emission intensities. Level-3 XCH₄ data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite were used, which were aggregated into seasonal and annual composites. High-emission regions, such as the Mekong Delta, Nile Delta, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Central Thailand, Lake Victoria Basin, and Eastern Arkansas, were contrasted with low-emission areas including Patagonia, the Mongolian Steppe, Northern Scandinavia, the Australian Outback, the Sahara Desert, and the Canadian Shield. The results show that high-emission regions exhibit substantially higher seasonal amplitude in XCH₄ concentrations, with an average seasonal variation of approximately 30.00 ppb, compared to 17.39 ppb in low-emission regions. Methane concentrations generally peaked at the end of the year (Q4) and reached their lowest levels during the first half of the year (Q1 or Q2), particularly in agriculturally dominated regions. Principal component and cluster analyses further confirmed a strong spatial differentiation between high- and low-emission regions based on both temporal trends and seasonal behavior. These findings demonstrate the potential of satellite remote sensing to monitor regional methane dynamics and highlight the need for targeted mitigation strategies in major agricultural and wetland zones. Full article

This study integrates morphometric analysis, remote sensing, and GIS with the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to identify high potential groundwater recharge areas in Wadi Abadi, Egyptian Eastern Desert, supporting sustainable water resource management. Groundwater recharge primarily comes from rainfall and Nile River water, particularly for Quaternary aquifers. The analysis focused on the Quaternary and Nubian Sandstone aquifers, evaluating 16 influencing parameters, including elevation, slope, rainfall, lithology, soil type, and land use/land cover (LULC). The drainage network was derived from a 30 m-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM). ArcGIS 10.8 was used to classify the basin into 13 sub-basins, with layers reclassified and weighted using a raster calculator. The groundwater potential map revealed that 24.95% and 29.87% of the area fall into very low and moderate potential categories, respectively, while low, high, and very high potential zones account for 18.62%, 17.65%, and 8.91%. Data from 41 observation wells were used to verify the potential groundwater resources. In this study, the ROC curve was applied to assess the accuracy of the GWPZ models generated through different methods. The validation results indicated that approximately 87% of the wells corresponded accurately with the designated zones on the GWPZ map, confirming its reliability. Over-pumping in the southwest has significantly lowered water levels in the Quaternary aquifer. This study provides a systematic approach for identifying groundwater recharge zones, offering insights that can support resource allocation, well placement, and aquifer sustainability in arid regions. This study also underscores the importance of recharge assessment for shallow aquifers, even in hyper-arid environments. Full article

The Qena basin (16,000 km²) represents one of the largest dry valleys located in the arid Eastern Desert of Egypt. Groundwater resources in this watershed are scarce due to limited recharge from annual precipitation. Hydrogeochemistry and environmentally stable isotopes were utilized to determine the main sources of recharge and geochemical processes affecting groundwater quality. The studied basin comprises three main groundwater aquifers: the Quaternary aquifer, the Post-Nubian aquifer (PNA) of the Paleocene-Eocene age, and the Nubian Sandstone aquifer (NSA) of the Lower Cretaceous age. Groundwater types vary from fresh to brackish groundwater. The groundwater salinity of the Quaternary aquifer ranges from 426 to 9975 mg/L with an average of 3191 mg/L, the PNA’s groundwater salinity ranges from 1134 to 6969 mg/L with an average of 3760 mg/L, and the NSA’s groundwater salinity ranges from 1663 to 1737 mg/L with an average of 1692 mg/L. The NSA’s groundwater is relatively depleted of stable isotopes’ signatures (ranges: δ¹⁸O from −9‰ to −4.81‰; δ²H from −71‰ to −33.22‰), whereas the Quaternary aquifer’s groundwater is relatively enriched (ranges: δ¹⁸O from −5.51 to +4.70‰; δ²H from −40.87 to +37.10‰). Geochemical and isotopic investigations reveal that the NSA groundwater is a paleo-water recharged in a cooler climate. In contrast, the upstream Quaternary groundwater receives considerable recharge from recent meteoric water and upward leakage from the artesian NSA. The downstream Quaternary aquifer in the delta of the Qena basin is composed of original groundwater mixed with recharge from the River Nile. Isotopic analysis confirms that the PNA’s groundwater recharge (ranges: δ¹⁸O from −5.90 to −0.10; δ²H −58.21 to −7.10‰) mainly originates from upward leakage from the NSA under the artesian condition and seepage from the upper unconfined Quaternary aquifer. NETPATH geochemical model results show that water–rock interaction, evaporation, and mixing are the main geochemical and physical processes controlling the groundwater quality. NSA groundwater has a significant regional extension and salinity suitable for use in expanding agricultural projects; it should be well managed for sustainable development. Full article

Groundwater is a vital water resource for economic, agricultural, and domestic purposes in arid regions. To reduce water scarcity in arid regions, recently, remote sensing and GIS techniques have been successfully applied to predict areas with prospective water resources. Thus, this study attempted to spatially reveal groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) and to conduct change detection on the desert fringes of Wadi Asyuti, a defunct tributary of Egypt’s Nile basin in eastern Sahara. Eleven influential groundwater factors generated from remote sensing imagery, and geological, hydrological, and climatic conditions were combined after giving a weight to each factor through a GIS-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) coupled with the weighted overlay technique (WOT). The results revealed six distinctive zones with scores ranging from very low (10.59%) to excellent (3.03%). Thirty-three productive groundwater wells, Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) coherence change detection (CCD), a land use map derived from Sentinel-2, and the delineated flooding zone derived from Landsat-8 data were used to validate the delineated zones. The GWPZs indicated that 48% of the collected wells can be classified as consistent to excellent. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and image classification were applied to the multi-temporal Landsat series and Sentinel-2 along with the InSAR CCD data derived from Sentinel-1 images to reveal dramatic changes in land use/land cover (LU/LC) in terms of agricultural and other anthropogenic activities in the structurally downstream area, which is the most promising area for future developments. Overall, the integration of radar and multispectral data through the GIS technique has the ability to provide valuable information about water resources in arid regions. Thus, the tested model is a promising technique, and such information is extremely significant for the guidance of planners and decision makers in the area of sustainable development. Full article

The adverse impact of climate change on different regionally important sectors such as agriculture and hydropower is a serious concern and is currently at the epicentre of global interest. Despite the extensive efforts to project the future climate and assess its potential impact, it is surrounded by uncertainties. This study aimed to assess climate models’ performance and associated uncertainties in rainfall projection over the eastern Nile basin, Ethiopia. Seventeen climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and their four ensemble models were evaluated in terms of their historical prediction performance (1986–2005) and future simulation skill (2006–2016) at rainfall station (point location), grid-scale (0.44° × 0.44°) and basin scale. Station-based and spatially interpolated observed rainfall data were used as a reference during climate model performance evaluation. In addition, CRU data was used as an alternative reference data to check the effect of the reference data source on the climate models evaluation process. As the results showed, climate models have a large discrepancy in their projected rainfall and hence prior evaluation of their performance is necessary. For instance, the bias in historical mean annual rainfall averaged over the basin ranges from +760 mm (wet bias) to −582 mm (dry bias). The spatial pattern correlation (r) of climate models output and observed rainfall ranges from −0.1 to 0.7. The ensemble formed with selected (performance-based) member models outperforms the widely used multi-model ensemble in most of the evaluation metrics. This showed the need for reconsidering the widely used multi-model approach in most climate model-based studies. The use of CRU data as a reference resulted in a change in the magnitude of climate model bias. To conclude, each climate model has a certain degree of uncertainty in the rainfall projection, which potentially affects the studies on climate change and its impact (e.g., on water resources). Therefore, climate-related studies have to consider uncertainties in climate projections, which will help end-users (decision-makers) at least to be aware of the potential range of deviation in the future projected outcomes of interest. Full article

Bean leaf beetles (Ootheca spp.) (Insecta: Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) are one of Africa’s most destructive pests of common bean and other leguminous crops. The beetles are widely distributed in Africa where they are estimated to cause annual crop yield losses of 116,400 tons of crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite their importance, little is known about the distribution, relative abundance and damage caused by bean leaf beetles in Uganda. As a result, the development of effective management methods has been hampered. We conducted surveys in six key Ugandan agro-ecological zones to determine the species distribution and relative abundance of bean leaf beetles. Findings indicate that leaf beetles belonging to 12 genera are present, including members of the genera Afrophthalma Medvedev, 1980, Buphonella Jacoby, 1903, Chrysochrus Chevrolat in Dejean, 1836, Diacantha Dejean, 1845, Exosoma Jacoby, 1903, Lamprocopa Hincks, 1949, Lema Fabricius, 1798, Nisotra Baly, 1864, Neobarombiella Bolz and Wagner, 2012, Ootheca Dejean, 1935, Parasbecesta Laboissière, 1940, and Plagiodera Dejean, 1835. We identified only three species belonging to the genus Ootheca: O. mutabilis, O. proteus, and O. orientalis. Seventy percent of all the beetles collected were O. mutabilis and these were present in all agro-ecological zones studied. The Northern Moist Farmlands (21.9%), West Nile Farmlands (12.9%), Central Wooded Savanna (4.4%) and Southern and Eastern Lake Kyoga Basin (1.4%) were the only agro-ecological zones where O. proteus was found. Only one specimen of O. orientalis was found at a single site in the Central Wooded Savanna. The Northern Moist Farmlands had a significantly (p < 0.05) higher bean leaf beetle density than the West Nile Farmlands and Southwestern Highlands. Similarly, the Northern Moist Farmlands had the highest beetle foliar damage per plant (1.15 ± 0.05), while the Southwestern Highlands had the lowest (0.03 ± 0.02). We provide the first information on Ootheca species distribution, abundance and damage in Uganda. Our findings provide a foundation for assessing the importance of Ootheca spp. as common bean pests in Uganda. Full article

Geoarchaeological information presented here pertains to a subsidiary Nile channel that once flowed west of the main Sebennitic distributary and discharged its water and sediments at Egypt’s then north-central deltaic coast. Periodical paleoclimatic episodes during the later Middle and Upper Holocene included decreased rainfall and increased aridity that reduced the Nile’s flow levels and thus likely disrupted nautical transport and anthropogenic activity along this channel. Such changes in this deltaic sector, positioned adjacent to the Levantine Basin in the Eastern Mediterranean, can be attributed to climatic shifts triggered as far as the North Atlantic to the west, and African highland source areas of the Egyptian Nile to the south. Of special interest in a study core recovered along the channel are several sediment sequences without anthropogenic material that are interbedded between strata comprising numerous potsherds. The former are interpreted here as markers of increased regional aridity and reduced Nile flow which could have periodically disrupted the regional distribution of goods and nautical activities. Such times occurred ~5000 years B.P., ~4200–4000 years B.P., ~3200–2800 years B.P., ~2300–2200 years B.P., and more recently. Periods comparable to these are also identified by altered proportions of pollen, isotopic and compositional components in different radiocarbon-dated Holocene cores recovered elsewhere in the Nile delta, the Levantine region to the east and north of Egypt, and in the Faiyum depression south of the delta. Full article

The Nile River stretches from south to north throughout the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Northeast Africa. Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile originates, has begun the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will be used to generate electricity. However, the impact of the GERD on land deformation caused by significant water relocation has not been rigorously considered in the scientific research. In this study, we develop a novel approach for predicting large-scale land deformation induced by the construction of the GERD reservoir. We also investigate the limitations of using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE-FO) mission to detect GERD-induced land deformation. We simulated three land deformation scenarios related to filling the expected reservoir volume, 70 km³, using 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios. The results indicated: (i) trends in downward vertical displacement estimated at −17.79 ± 0.02, −8.90 ± 0.09, and −5.94 ± 0.05 mm/year, for the 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios, respectively; (ii) the western (eastern) parts of the GERD reservoir are estimated to move toward the reservoir’s center by +0.98 ± 0.01 (−0.98 ± 0.01), +0.48 ± 0.00 (−0.48 ± 0.00), and +0.33 ± 0.00 (−0.33 ± 0.00) mm/year, under the 5-, 10- and 15-year filling strategies, respectively; (iii) the northern part of the GERD reservoir is moving southward by +1.28 ± 0.02, +0.64 ± 0.01, and +0.43 ± 0.00 mm/year, while the southern part is moving northward by −3.75 ± 0.04, −1.87 ± 0.02, and −1.25 ± 0.01 mm/year, during the three examined scenarios, respectively; and (iv) the GRACE-FO mission can only detect 15% of the large-scale land deformation produced by the GERD reservoir. Methods and results demonstrated in this study provide insights into possible impacts of reservoir impoundment on land surface deformation, which can be adopted into the GERD project or similar future dam construction plans. Full article

Despite the Sahara being one of the most arid regions on Earth, it has experienced rainfall conditions in the past and could hold plentiful groundwater resources. Thus, groundwater is one of the most precious water resources in this region, which suffers from water shortage due to the limited rainfall caused by climatic conditions. This article will assess the knowledge-driven techniques employed to develop a model to integrate the multicriteria derived from geologic, geomorphic, structural, seismic, hydrologic, and remotely sensed data. This model was tested on the defunct Kom Ombo area of Egypt’s Nile river basin in the eastern Sahara, which covers ~28,200 km², to reveal the promising areas of groundwater resources. To optimize the output map, we updated the model by adding the automated depression resulting from a fill-difference approach and seismic activity layers combined with other evidential maps, including slope, topography, geology, drainage density, lineament density, soil characteristics, rainfall, and morphometric characteristics, after assigning a weight for each using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based knowledge-driven approach. The paleochannels and soil characteristics were visualized using Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)/Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data. Several hydromorphic characteristics, sinks/depressions, and sub-basin characteristics were extracted using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. The results revealed that the assessed groundwater potential zones (GPZs) can be arranged into five distinctive groups, depending on their probability for groundwater, namely very low (6.56%), low (22.62%), moderate (30.75%), high (29.71%), and very high (10.34%). The downstream areas and Wadi Garara have very high recharge and storage potential. Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) coherence change detection (CCD) derived from Sentinel-1 data revealed a consistency between areas with high InSAR CCD (low change) that received a plausible amount of surface water and those with very low InSAR CCD values close to 0 (high change). Landsat data validated the areas that received runoff and are of high potentiality. The twenty-nine groundwater well locations overlaid on the GPZs, to assess the predicted model, indicated that about 86.17% of the wells were matched with very good to moderate potential zones. Full article

The study of water balance is considered here as a way to assess the performance of regional climate models and examine model uncertainty and as an approach to understanding regional hydrology, especially interactions between atmospheric and hydrological processes. We studied the atmospheric and terrestrial water balance over the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) region using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The model performance in simulating precipitation and surface air temperature is assessed by comparing the model output with the data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset for precipitation and from the University of Delaware for temperature. The results show that the simulated and observed values correlate well. In terms of water balance, the study region was found to be a sink for moisture, where the atmospheric convergence is negative during most of the time. Most of the precipitation originates from moisture fluxes from outside the domain, and the contribution of local evapotranspiration to precipitation is limited, with small values for the moisture recycling ratios year-round. The atmospheric moisture content does not show significant monthly or annual variation. The results indicate that the terrestrial water storage varies seasonally, with negative fluxes during most of the year, except June, July, and August, when most of the precipitation occurs. Full article

Investigating the trends of hydro-meteorological variables and checking its variability are of great importance for water resources management and development in the River Nile basin. The present study aimed to analyze the rainfall variability and trends in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) over a period from 1953 to 2014. Variability analysis showed that the basin has been suffering from variable rainfall events causing severe droughts and floods over different years. According to precipitation concentration index calculations, the basin had irregular and strong irregular rainfall distribution over the annual and dry seasons, while the basin had a uniform and moderate rainfall distribution during the rainy season and small rainy season. For the total annual rainfall, Mann–Kendall test indicated that, for the eastern central part of the basin, a significant increasing trend of 12.85 mm/year occurred over the studied period, while, for the southwestern part of the basin, a significant decrease of 17.78 mm/year occurred. For the rainy season, a significant increasing trend over the northeastern and eastern central parts of the basin with the magnitude of 3.330–12.625 mm/year occurred. Trend analysis was applied on the monthly averaged rainfall over the whole basin and revealed that July and August are the most contributors of rainfall to the basin with 23.32% and 22.65%. Changing point assessment revealed that at Lake Tana outlet there is a decreasing of the rainfall of 17.7% after 1977 that matched with the trend analysis results. The data and results contained herein provide updated information about the current situation in the UBNB. The results can be used to predict future precipitation and estimate the uncertainty in future precipitation prediction models. Full article

Flash floods are classified among the Earth’s most deadly and destructive natural hazards, particularly in arid regions. Wadi El-Ambagi, one of the largest drainage basins in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, is frequently subjected to severe flash flood damage following intense, short-lived rainstorms. This wadi is home to one of the few road networks which connects the Nile River Valley to the Red Sea Coast. At its outlet lies Quseir, one of the major coastal towns in the area. Quseir is a developing tourism and scuba diving town, and is known for its historical importance as an ancient port; thus, efforts are in place to preserve the town’s heritage. The lack of hydrological and meteorological data in this region necessitates the use of a hydrological modeling approach to predict the spatial extent, depth, and velocity of the flood waters, and hence locate sites at risk of flood inundation. This was accomplished by understanding the characteristics of surface runoff through modeled hydrographs. Here, elevation data were extracted from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and a two-meter digital elevation model (DEM) derived from WorldView-2 stereo pair imagery. The land use/land cover and soil properties were mapped from fused ASTER multispectral and ALOS-PALSAR Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to produce a hybrid image that combines spectral properties and surface roughness, respectively. The results showed that storm events with rainfall intensities of 30 mm and ~60 mm over a two-hour period would generate maximum peak flows of 165 m³ s⁻¹ and 875 m³ s⁻¹ , respectively. The latter peak flow would generate floods with depths of up to 2 m within the town of Quseir. A flood of this magnitude would inundate 217 buildings, 7 km of the highway, and 1.43 km of the railroad in the downstream area of Wadi El-Ambagi. Findings from this work indicate that the integration of remote sensing and hydrological modeling can be a practical and quick approach to predict flash flood hazards in arid regions where data are scarce. Full article

The Eastern Nile Basin is facing a number of transboundary issues, including water resources development, and the associated impacts. The Nile Basin, particularly the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered as one of a few international river systems of potential conflicts between riparian countries. The Eastern Nile is characterized by the high dependency of downstream countries on river water generated in upstream countries, with limited or no contribution to the runoff itself. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal scenarios for water resources management in the Eastern Nile with regard to hydropower generation and irrigation development. A hydro-economic optimization model based on Genetic Algorithm has been used to determine the maximum benefits for two scenarios: (i) non-cooperative management of hydraulic infrastructure by the riparian countries (status quo), and (ii) cooperative water resources management among the riparian countries. The hydro-economic model is developed using a Genetic Algorithm and deterministic optimization approach covering all hydraulic infrastructures in the Eastern Nile, existing and planned, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The results show that cooperative management yields an increase in hydro-energy returns for all countries compared to the status quo, with a very high increase in Ethiopian’s returns, as expected. Non-cooperative system management would negatively impact the hydro-energy of Egypt compared to the cooperative management (reduced by 11%), without a significant increase of hydro-energy for Ethiopia. For Sudan, the results show that hydropower generation benefits from the presence of GERD, in both management scenarios. Non-cooperative management of the system, along with the internal trade-off between irrigation and hydropower facilities, would negatively impact irrigation supply in Sudan. The findings support the argument of positive impact of GERD development on the three Eastern Nile riparian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, provided that the three countries agree to manage the system cooperatively. Full article

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate Climatology version 2 [ARC 2.0]). The statistical performance measuring techniques (i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (r), mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), and Bias) were used to evaluate the satellite rainfall products with the corresponding ground observation data at ten independent weather stations. The evaluation was carried out for 1998–2015 at dekadal, monthly, and seasonal time scales. The evaluation results of these satellite-derived rainfall products show there is a good agreement (r > 0.7) of CHIRPS and TARCAT rainfall products with ground observations in majority of the weather stations for all time steps. TARCAT showed a greater correlation coefficient (r > 0.70) in seven weather stations at a dekadal time scale whereas CHIRPS showed a greater correlation coefficient (r > 0.84) in nine weather stations at a monthly time scale. An excellent score of Bias (close to one) and mean error was observed in CHIRPS at dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales in a majority of the stations. TARCAT performed well next to CHIRPS whereas PERSSIAN presented a weak performance under all the criteria. Thus, the CHIRPS rainfall product was selected and used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of meteorological drought in this study. The 3-month Z-Score values were calculated for each grid and used to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of drought. The result shows that the known historic drought years (2014–2015, 2009–2010, 1994–1995 and 1983–1984) were successfully indicated. Moreover, severe drought conditions were observed in the drought prone parts of the basin (i.e., central, eastern and southeastern). Hence, the CHIRPS rainfall product can be used as an alternative source of information in developing the grid-based drought monitoring tools for the basin that could help in developing early warning systems. Full article

Results of numerous evaluation studies indicated that satellite-rainfall products are contaminated with significant systematic and random errors. Therefore, such products may require refinement and correction before being used for hydrologic applications. In the present study, we explore a rainfall-runoff modeling application using the Climate Prediction Center-MORPHing (CMORPH) satellite rainfall product. The study area is the Gilgel Abbay catchment situated at the source basin of the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia, Eastern Africa. Rain gauge networks in such area are typically sparse. We examine different bias correction schemes applied locally to the CMORPH product. These schemes vary in the degree to which spatial and temporal variability in the CMORPH bias fields are accounted for. Three schemes are tested: space and time-invariant, time-variant and spatially invariant, and space and time variant. Bias-corrected CMORPH products were used to calibrate and drive the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model. Applying the space and time-fixed bias correction scheme resulted in slight improvement of the CMORPH-driven runoff simulations, but in some instances caused deterioration. Accounting for temporal variation in the bias reduced the rainfall bias by up to 50%. Additional improvements were observed when both the spatial and temporal variability in the bias was accounted for. The rainfall bias was found to have a pronounced effect on model calibration. The calibrated model parameters changed significantly when using rainfall input from gauges alone, uncorrected, and bias-corrected CMORPH estimates. Changes of up to 81% were obtained for model parameters controlling the stream flow volume. Full article