Search Results (361)

The systems in nature are rarely isolated and there are different influences that can perturb their states. Dynamic noise in physiological systems can cause fluctuations and changes on different levels, often leading to qualitative transitions. In this study, we explore how to detect and extract the physiological noise, in terms of dynamic noise, from measurements of biological oscillatory systems. Moreover, because the biological systems can often have deterministic time-varying dynamics, we have considered how to detect the dynamic physiological noise while at the same time following the time-variability of the deterministic part. To achieve this, we use dynamical Bayesian inference for modeling stochastic differential equations that describe the phase dynamics of interacting oscillators. We apply this methodological framework on cardio-respiratory signals in which the breathing of the subjects varies in a predefined manner, including free spontaneous, sine, ramped and aperiodic breathing patterns. The statistical results showed significant difference in the physiological noise for the respiration dynamics in relation to different breathing patterns. The effect from the perturbed breathing was not translated through the interactions on the dynamic noise of the cardiac dynamics. The fruitful cardio-respiratory application demonstrated the potential of the methodological framework for applications to other physiological systems more generally. Full article

A pinning boundary control strategy that can achieve the exponentially clustered synchronization of a specific class of complex networks is developed. Firstly, the studied model captures the essential features of networks, including spatial dependence, stochastic switching, noise perturbation, and time delays. Secondly, the proposed control algorithm can save the implementation cost and overcome environmental constraint by acting on the boundary of a few nodes. Thirdly, an average state related to the directed topology of the nodes in the same cluster is calculated as the target network. Finally, nonlinear simulations show that the proposed controller can solve the cluster synchronization of a directed coupled reaction–diffusion neural network with Markovian switching, stochastic noise and time delay. Full article

A novel stochastic finite element model updating method based on multi-point sensitivities is proposed to improve the reproduction and prediction ability of finite element models for experimental data. Drawing upon the theory of small perturbations, this approach employs the sensitivity matrix in conjunction with the probability distribution of responses evaluated at multiple parameter points to determine the probability density associated with each parameter point and to estimate the statistical properties of the parameters. To achieve this objective, principal component analysis is employed to unify the dimensionality of the parameters and the responses; the least squares method was used to estimate the characteristics of the parameters. The reliability and validity of this method were confirmed through experimentation with a 3-degree-of-freedom spring-mass system and an aerospace thermal insulation structure. A comparison of this method with classical methods reveals significant advantages in terms of robustness across varying computational scales. Notably, it attains superior accuracy with smaller sample sizes while maintaining precision comparable to conventional methods with large samples. Consequently, this characteristic confers upon the method a distinct advantage in scenarios where the costs of finite element computation are prohibitively high. Full article

This work presents the design of passivity based non-fragile retarded sampled data control (NFRSDC) for the wind energy system using permanent magnet synchronous generator. At first, the proposed system is characterized in terms of non-linear dynamical equations, which is later expressed in terms of linear sub-systems via fuzzy membership functions using the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy approach. After that, a more applicative NFRSDC is proposed along with the delay involved during signal transmission as well as randomly occurring controller gain perturbations (ROCGPs). Here, the ROCGPs are modeled accordingly using stochastic variable which obeys the certain Bernoulli distribution sequences. Folowing that, an appropriate Lyapunov–Krasovskii functionals are constructed to obtain the sufficient conditions in the form of linear matrix inequalities. These obtained conditions are then used to ensure the global asymptotic stability of the given system with the exogenous disturbances. Finally, numerical simulations are performed using MATLAB/Simulink and the obtained results have clearly demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed controller. Full article

Data uncertainty and limited model generalization remain critical bottlenecks in large-scale remote sensing of soil salinization. Although the integration of multi-source data has improved predictive potential, conventional deterministic feature selection methods often overlook stochastic noise inherent in environmental variables, leading to models that overfit spurious correlations rather than learning stable physical signals. To address this limitation, this study proposes a Bootstrap–Boruta feature stability assessment framework that shifts feature selection from deterministic “feature importance” ranking to probabilistic “feature stability” evaluation, explicitly accounting for uncertainty induced by data perturbations. The proposed framework is evaluated by integrating stability-driven feature sets with multiple machine learning models, including a Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) optimized using the Red-billed Blue Magpie Optimization (RBMO) algorithm as a representative optimization strategy. Using the Minqin Lake region as a case study, the results demonstrate that the stability-based framework effectively filters unstable noise features, reduces systematic estimation bias, and improves predictive robustness across different modeling approaches. Among the tested models, the RBMO-optimized BPNN achieved the highest accuracy. Under a rigorous bootstrap validation framework, the quality-controlled ensemble model yielded a robust mean R² of 0.657 ± 0.05 and an RMSE of 1.957 ± 0.289 dS/m. The framework further identifies eleven physically robust predictors, confirming the dominant diagnostic role of shortwave infrared (SWIR) indices in arid saline environments. Spatial mapping based on these stable features reveals that 30.7% of the study area is affected by varying degrees of soil salinization. Overall, this study provides a mechanism-driven, promising, within-region framework that enhances the reliability of remote-sensing-based soil salinity inversion under heterogeneous environmental conditions. Full article

Stochastically forced nonlinear wave systems are commonly associated with complex dynamical behavior, although little is known about the general interaction of nonlinear dispersion, irrational forcing frequencies, and multiplicative noise. To fill this gap, we consider a generalized stochastic SIdV equation and examine the effects of deterministic and stochastic influences on the long-term behavior of the equation. The PDE was modeled using a stochastic traveling-wave transformation that simplifies it into a planar system, which was studied using Darboux-seeded constructions, Poincaré maps, bifurcation patterns, Lyapunov exponents, recurrence plots, and sensitivity diagnostics. We discovered that natural, implicit, and unique seeds produce highly diverse transformed wave fields exhibiting both irrational and golden-ratio forcing, controlling the transition from quasi-periodicity to chaos. Stochastic perturbation is demonstrated to suppress as well as to amplify chaotic states, based on noise levels, altering attractor geometry, predictability, and multistability. Meanwhile, OGY control is demonstrated to be able to stabilize chosen unstable periodic orbits of the double-well regime. A stochastic bifurcation analysis was performed with respect to noise strength $\sigma$, revealing that the attractor structure of the system remains robust under stochastic excitation, with noise inducing only bounded fluctuations rather than qualitative dynamical transitions within the investigated parameter regime. These findings demonstrate that the emergence, deformation, and controllability of complex oscillatory patterns of stochastic nonlinear wave models are jointly controlled by nonlinear structure, external forcing, and noise. Full article

Empirical debates about a “crisis of trust” highlight long-lived pockets of high trust and deep distrust in institutions, as well as abrupt, shock-induced shifts between the two. We propose a probabilistic model in which such phenomena emerge endogenously from social learning on hierarchical networks. Starting from a discrete model on a directed acyclic graph, where each agent makes a binary adoption decision about a single assertion, we derive an effective influence kernel that maps individual priors to stationary adoption probabilities. A continuum limit along hierarchical depth yields a degenerate, non-conservative logistic–diffusion equation for the adoption probability $u(x,t)$, in which diffusion is modulated by $(1-u)$ and increases the integral of u rather than preserving it. To account for micro-level uncertainty, we perturb these dynamics by multiplicative Stratonovich noise with amplitude proportional to $u(1-u)$, strongest in internally polarised layers and vanishing at consensus. At the level of a single depth layer, Stratonovich–Itô conversion and Fokker–Planck analysis show that the noise induces an effective double-well potential with two robust stochastic phases, $u\approx 0$ and $u\approx 1$, corresponding to persistent distrust and trust. Coupled along depth, this local bistability and degenerate diffusion generate extended domains of trust and distrust separated by fronts, as well as rare, Kramers-type transitions between them. We also formulate the associated stochastic partial differential equation in Martin–Siggia–Rose–Janssen–De Dominicis form, providing a field-theoretic basis for future large-deviation and data-informed analyses of trust landscapes in hierarchical societies. Full article

The increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves across Southern Europe pose growing challenges to the performance and profitability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This study quantifies the impact of elevated ambient temperatures on three large-scale PV power plants located in distinct Portuguese climatic zones: Amareleja, Alcoutim, and Tábua. Using 15 years of hourly meteorological data from PVGIS (2009–2023), five temperature models—NOCT, Faiman, PVSyst, NOCT (SAM), and Sandia—were implemented to estimate cell temperature and corresponding PV output under reference and elevated temperature conditions (+2 °C and +5 °C). A three-fold sensitivity analysis assessed (i) the influence of module parameters (temperature coefficient and NOCT), (ii) the effect of stochastic, non-uniform temperature perturbations mimicking realistic heat waves, and (iii) the impact of the selected PV performance model by comparing the simplified linear temperature-corrected approach with the one-diode and three-parameter (1D + 3P) model. Results show that a uniform +2 °C rise reduces annual energy yield by 0.74% and a +5 °C rise by 1.85%, while stochastic perturbations slightly amplify these losses to 0.80% and 2.01%. The 1D + 3P model predicts stronger nonlinear effects, with reductions of −2.42% and −6.06%. Although modest at plant scale, such impacts could translate into annual national revenue losses exceeding 10 million EUR, considering Portugal’s 6.32 GW installed PV capacity. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for realistic temperature dynamics and model uncertainty when assessing PV performance under a warming climate. Full article

Background: Glioblastoma (GBM) is among the most aggressive and morphologically heterogeneous brain tumors. Beyond static imaging biomarkers, its structural organization can be viewed as a nonlinear dynamical system. Characterizing morphodynamic attractors within such a system may reveal latent stability patterns of morphological change and potential indicators of morphodynamic organization. Methods: We analyzed 494 subjects from the multi-institutional BraTS 2020 dataset using a fully automated computational pipeline. Each multimodal MRI volume was encoded into a 16-dimensional latent space using a 3D convolutional autoencoder. Synthetic morphological trajectories, generated through bidirectional growth–shrinkage transformations of tumor masks, enabled training of a contraction-regularized Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) to model continuous-time latent morphodynamics. Morphological complexity was quantified using fractal dimension (DF), and local dynamical stability was measured via a Lyapunov-like exponent (λ). Robustness analyses assessed the stability of DF–λ regimes under multi-scale perturbations, synthetic-order reversal (directionality; sign-aware comparison) and stochastic noise, including cross-generator generalization against a time-shuffled negative control. Results: The DF–λ morphodynamic phase map revealed three characteristic regimes: (1) stable morphodynamics (λ < 0), associated with compact, smoother boundaries; (2) metastable dynamics (λ ≈ 0), reflecting weakly stable or transitional behavior; and (3) unstable or chaotic dynamics (λ > 0), associated with divergent latent trajectories. Latent-space flow fields exhibited contraction-induced attractor-like basins and smoothly diverging directions. Kernel-density estimation of DF–λ distributions revealed a prominent population cluster within the metastable regime, characterized by moderate-to-high geometric irregularity (DF ≈ 1.85–2.00) and near-neutral dynamical stability (λ ≈ −0.02 to +0.01). Exploratory clinical overlays showed that fractal dimension exhibited a modest negative association with survival, whereas λ did not correlate with clinical outcome, suggesting that the two descriptors capture complementary and clinically distinct aspects of tumor morphology. Conclusions: Glioblastoma morphology can be represented as a continuous dynamical process within a learned latent manifold. Combining Neural ODE–based dynamics, fractal morphometry, and Lyapunov stability provides a principled framework for dynamic radiomics, offering interpretable morphodynamic descriptors that bridge fractal geometry, nonlinear dynamics, and deep learning. Because BraTS is cross-sectional and the synthetic step index does not represent biological time, any clinical interpretation is hypothesis-generating; validation in longitudinal and covariate-rich cohorts is required before prognostic or treatment-monitoring use. The resulting DF–λ morphodynamic map provides a hypothesis-generating morphodynamic representation that should be evaluated in covariate-rich and longitudinal cohorts before any prognostic or treatment-monitoring use. Full article

Modern smart cities face increasing pressure to invest in sustainable and reliable energy systems while navigating uncertainties arising from fluctuating market conditions, evolving technology landscapes, and diverse expert opinions. Traditional multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches often fail to fully represent these uncertainties as they typically rely on crisp inputs, lack temporal memory, and do not explicitly account for stochastic variability. To address these limitations, this study introduces a novel Stochastic Fractional Fuzzy Tensor (SFFT)-based Group Decision-Making framework. The proposed approach integrates three dimensions of uncertainty within a unified mathematical structure: fuzzy representation of subjective expert assessments, fractional temporal operators (Caputo derivative, $\alpha =0.85$) to model the influence of historical evaluations, and stochastic diffusion terms ($\sigma =0.05$) to capture real-world volatility. A complete decision algorithm is developed and applied to a realistic smart city renewable energy selection problem involving six alternatives and six criteria evaluated by three experts. The SFFT-based evaluation identified Geothermal Energy as the optimal choice with a score of 0.798, followed by Offshore Wind (0.722) and Waste-to-Hydrogen (0.713). Comparative evaluation against benchmark MCDM methods—TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), VIKOR (VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje), and WSM (Weighted Sum Model)—demonstrates that the SFFT approach yields more robust and stable rankings, particularly under uncertainty and model perturbations. Extensive sensitivity analysis confirms high resilience of the top-ranked alternative, with Geothermal retaining the first position in 82.4% of 5000 Monte Carlo simulations under simultaneous variations in weights, memory parameter ($\alpha \in [0.25,0.95]$), and noise intensity ($\sigma \in [0.01,0.10]$). This research provides a realistic, mathematically grounded, and decision-maker-friendly tool for strategic planning in uncertain, dynamic urban environments, with strong potential for deployment in wider engineering, management, and policy applications. Full article

This paper develops a unified synchronization framework for octonion-valued fractional-order neural networks (FOOVNNs) subject to mixed delays, Lévy disturbances, and topology switching. A fractional sliding surface is constructed by combining $I^{1-\mu }{e}_g$ with integral terms in powers of $|e_g|$. The controller includes a nonsingular term $-{\rho }_{2g}{s}_g^{c_2}\mathrm{sign}\left(s_g\right)$, a disturbance-compensation term $-{\widehat{\theta }}_g\mathrm{sign}\left(s_g\right)$, and a delay-feedback term $-{\lambda }_g{e}_g(t-\tau )$, while dimension-aware adaptive laws ${\phantom{,}}^C{D}_t^{\mu }{\rho }_g=k_{1g}N{\parallel s_g\parallel }^{c_2}$ and ${\phantom{,}}^C{D}_t^{\mu }{\widehat{\theta }}_g=k_{2g}N\parallel s_g\parallel$ ensure scalability with network size. Fixed-time convergence is established via a fractional stochastic Lyapunov method, and predefined-time convergence follows by a time-scaling of the control channel. Markovian switching is treated through a mode-dependent Lyapunov construction and linear matrix inequality (LMI) conditions; non-Gaussian perturbations are handled using fractional Itô tools. The architecture admits observer-based variants and is implementation-friendly. Numerical results corroborate the theory: (i) Two-Node Baseline: The fixed-time design drives ${\parallel e\left(t\right)\parallel }_1$ to $\mathcal{O}\left({10}^{-4}\right)$ by $t\approx 0.94\mathrm{s}$, while the predefined-time variant meets a user-set $T_p=0.5\mathrm{s}$ with convergence at $t\approx 0.42\mathrm{s}$. (ii) Eight-Node Scalability: Sliding surfaces settle in an $\mathcal{O}\left(1\right)$ band, and adaptive parameter means saturate well below their ceilings. (iii) Hyperspectral (Synthetic): Reconstruction under Lévy contamination achieves a competitive PSNR consistent with hypercomplex modeling and fractional learning. (iv) Switching Robustness: under four modes and twelve random switches, the error satisfies ${max}_t{\parallel e\left(t\right)\parallel }_1\le 0.15$. The results support octonion-valued, fractionally damped controllers as practical, scalable mechanisms for robust synchronization under non-Gaussian noise, delays, and time-varying topologies. Full article

Aging is a progressive functional decline driven by complex genetic, epigenetic, environmental, and stochastic interactions that traditional linear models struggle to capture. Using human single-cell RNA-seq data from the multi-tissue AgeAnno dataset, we fine-tuned scGPT, a large transcriptomic model, to predict chronological age groups, achieving high classification accuracy. To identify genes influencing age predictions, we systematically perturbed individual genes in silico and quantified their effects, classifying them as pro- or anti-aging candidates. Our results demonstrate that scGPT does capture age-related dependencies in single-cell data and can be utilized to discover novel candidate gene perturbations—potential targets to be validated as anti-aging interventions. Full article

Accurate real-time prediction of labor productivity is crucial for the successful management of construction projects. However, it remains a significant challenge due to the dynamic and uncertain nature of construction environments. Existing models, while valuable for planning and post-analysis, often rely on historical data and static assumptions, rendering them inadequate for providing actionable, real-time insights during construction. This study addresses this gap by suggesting a novel hybrid AI-stochastic framework that integrates a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with Markov Chain modeling for dynamic productivity forecasting in repetitive construction activities. The LSTM component captures complex, long-term temporal dependencies in productivity data, while the Markov Chain models probabilistic state transitions (Low, Medium, High productivity) to account for inherent volatility and uncertainty. A key innovation is the use of a Bayesian-adjusted Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) to mitigate the “cold start” problem in new projects with limited initial data. The framework was rigorously validated across four distinct case studies, demonstrating robust performance with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values predominantly in the “Good” range (10–20%) for both the training and test datasets. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis further revealed the model’s stability under data perturbations, though performance varied with project characteristics. By enabling more efficient resource utilization and reducing project delays, the proposed framework contributes directly to sustainable construction practices. The model’s ability to provide accurate real-time predictions helps minimize material waste, reduce unnecessary labor costs, optimize equipment usage, and decrease the overall environmental impact of construction projects. Full article

We introduce an ultra-compact, single-neuron-per-class end-to-end readout for binary classification of noisy, image-encoded sensor time series. The approach compares a linear single-unit perceptron (E2E-MLP-1) with a resonate-and-fire (RAF) neuron (E2E-RAF-1), which merges feature selection and decision-making in a single block. Beyond empirical evaluation, we provide a mathematical analysis of the RAF readout: starting from its subthreshold ordinary differential equation, we derive the transfer function $H\left(\mathrm{j}\omega \right)$, characterize the frequency response, and relate the output signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to ${\left|H\left(\mathrm{j}\omega \right)\right|}^2$ and the noise power spectral density $S_n\left(\omega \right)\propto {\omega }^{\alpha }$ (brown, pink, and blue noise). We present a stable discrete-time implementation compatible with surrogate gradient training and discuss the associated stability constraints. As a case study, we classify walk-in-place (WIP) in a virtual reality (VR) environment, a vision-based motion encoding (72 × 56 grayscale) derived from 3D trajectories, comprising 44,084 samples from 15 participants. On clean data, both single-neuron-per-class models approach ceiling accuracy. At the same time, under colored noise, the RAF readout yields consistent gains (typically +5–8% absolute accuracy at medium/high perturbations), indicative of intrinsic band-selective filtering induced by resonance. With ∼8 k parameters and sub-2 ms inference on commodity graphical processing units (GPUs), the RAF readout provides a mathematically grounded, robust, and efficient alternative for stochastic signal processing across domains, with virtual reality locomotion used here as an illustrative validation. Full article

This paper considers the pricing of a subscription service in a heterogeneous market with consumers having different discount rates. We show that in the case of a non-zero enrollment/cancellation cost, solutions of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation naturally contain an equivalent of the well-known Preisach operator, a fundamental model of hysteresis in engineering applications. Singular perturbation expansions are used to approximate the optimal solution, assuming that enrollment/cancellation costs are small, relative to the total subscription cost. As a case study, we consider and compare markets with one and two consumers. Full article