Search Results (149)

Urban expansion has a profound impact on both society and the environment. In this study, VOSviewer 1.6.16 and CiteSpace 6.3.R1 were used to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 2987 articles published during the period of 1992–2022 from the Web of Science database in order to identify the research hotspots and trends of urban expansion and its driving factors. The number of articles significantly increased during the period of 1992–2022. The spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of urban expansion, urban growth models and simulations, and the impacts of urban expansion were the main research topics. The rate of urban expansion showed regional differences. Socioeconomic factors, political and institutional factors, natural factors, path effects, and proximity effects were the main driving factors. Urban expansion promoted economic growth, occupied cultivated land, and affected ecological environments. Big data and deep learning techniques were recently applied due to advancements in information techniques. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, the number of studies on environmental impacts and spatial planning regulations has increased. Some political and institutional factors, such as subsidies, taxation, spatial planning, new development strategies, regulation policies, and economic industries, had controversial or unknown impacts. Further research on these factors and their mechanisms is needed. A limitation of this study is that articles which were not indexed, were not included in bibliometric analysis. Further studies can review these articles and conduct comparative research to capture the diversity. Full article

Objectives: We introduce the conceptual framework for the Adversarial Claim Robustness Diagnostics (ACRD) protocol, a novel tool for assessing how factual claims withstand ideological distortion. Methods: Based on semantics, adversarial collaboration, and the devil’s advocate approach, we develop a three-phase evaluation process combining baseline evaluations, adversarial speaker reframing, and dynamic AI calibration along with quantified robustness scoring. We introduce the Claim Robustness Index that constitutes our final validity scoring measure. Results: We model the evaluation of claims by ideologically opposed groups as a strategic game with a Bayesian-Nash equilibrium to infer the normative behavior of evaluators after the reframing phase. The ACRD addresses shortcomings in traditional fact-checking approaches and employs large language models to simulate counterfactual attributions while mitigating potential biases. Conclusions: The framework’s ability to identify boundary conditions of persuasive validity across polarized groups can be tested across important societal and political debates ranging from climate change issues to trade policy discourses. Full article

The management of public health projects in a BANI (brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible) environment, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, presents unprecedented challenges due to fragile systems, heightened uncertainty, and complex socio-political dynamics. This study proposes an AI-driven framework to enhance the resilience and effectiveness of public health interventions under such conditions. By integrating a coupled SEIR–Infodemic–Panicdemic Model with war-specific factors, we simulate the interplay of infectious disease spread, misinformation dissemination, and panic dynamics over 1500 days in a Ukrainian city (Kharkiv). The model incorporates time-varying parameters to account for population displacement, healthcare disruptions, and periodic war events, reflecting the evolving conflict context. Sensitivity and risk–opportunity analyses reveal that disease transmission, misinformation, and infrastructure damage significantly exacerbate epidemic peaks, while AI-enabled interventions, such as fact-checking, mental health support, and infrastructure recovery, offer substantial mitigation potential. Qualitative assessments identify technical, organisational, ethical, regulatory, and military risks, alongside opportunities for predictive analytics, automation, and equitable healthcare access. Quantitative simulations demonstrate that risks, like increased displacement, can amplify infectious peaks by up to 28.3%, whereas opportunities, like enhanced fact-checking, can reduce misinformation by 18.2%. These findings provide a roadmap for leveraging AI to navigate BANI environments, offering actionable insights for public health practitioners in Ukraine and other crisis settings. The study underscores AI’s transformative role in fostering adaptive, data-driven strategies to achieve sustainable health outcomes amidst volatility and uncertainty. Full article

The control of ventilation systems is often performed by automatic algorithms which often do not consider the future evolution of the system in its control politics. Digital twins allow system forecasting for a more sophisticated control. This paper explores a novel methodology to create a Machine Learning (ML) model for the predictive control of a ventilation system combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with Artificial Intelligence (AI). This predictive model was created to forecast the temperature and humidity evolution of a ventilated room to be implemented in a digital twin for better unsupervised control strategies. To replicate the full range of annual conditions, a series of CFD simulations were configured and executed based on seasonal data collected by sensors positioned inside and outside the room. These simulations generated a dataset used to develop the predictive model, which was based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) with fully connected layers. The model’s performance was evaluated, yielding final average absolute errors of 0.34 degrees Kelvin for temperature and 2.2 percentage points for relative humidity. The presented results highlight the potential of this methodology to create AI-driven digital twins for the control of room ventilation. Full article

E-polis is a serious digital game designed to gamify sociological surveys studying young people’s political opinions. In this platform game, players navigate a digital world, encountering quests posing sociological questions. Players’ answers shape the city-game world, altering building structures based on their choices. E-polis is a serious game, not a government simulation, aiming to understand players’ behaviors and opinions; thus, we do not train the players but rather understand them and help them visualize their choices in shaping a city’s future. Also, it is noticed that no correct or incorrect answers apply. Moreover, our game utilizes a novel middleware architecture for development, diverging from typical asset-prefab-scene and script segregation. This article presents the data layer of our game’s middleware, specifically focusing on data analysis based on respondents’ gameplay answers. E-polis represents an innovative approach to gamifying sociological research, providing a unique platform for gathering and analyzing data on political opinions among youth and contributing to the broader field of serious games. Full article

This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation along the politically sensitive Iraq–Turkey border within the Duhok Governorate between 2015 and 2024. Utilizing paired remote sensing (RS) and high-end machine learning (ML) methods, forest dynamics were simulated from Sentinel-2 imagery, climate datasets, and topographic variables. Seven ML models were evaluated, and XGBoost consistently outperformed the others, yielding predictive accuracies (R²) of 0.903 (2015), 0.910 (2019), and 0.950 (2024), and a low RMSE (≤0.035). Model interpretability was further improved through the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to estimate variable contributions and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to elucidate complex nonlinear interactions. The results showed distinct temporal shifts; climatic factors (rainfall and temperature) primarily influenced vegetation cover in 2015, whereas anthropogenic drivers such as forest fires (NBR), road construction (RI), and soil exposure (BSI) intensified by 2024, accounting for up to 12% of the observed forest loss. Forest canopy cover decreased significantly, from approximately 630 km² in 2015 to 577 km² in 2024, mainly due to illegal deforestation, road network expansion, and conflict-induced fires. This study highlights the effectiveness of an ML-driven RS analysis for geoinformation needs in geopolitically complex and data-scarce regions. These findings underscore the urgent need for robust, evidence-based conservation policies and demonstrate the utility of interpretable ML techniques for forest management policy optimization, providing a reproducible methodological blueprint for future ecological assessment. Full article

Peer-to-peer overlays define an approach to operating data management platforms, which are robust against censorship attempts from countries or large enterprises. The robustness of such overlays is endangered in the presence of national Internet isolations, such as was the case in recent years during political revolutions. In this paper, we focus on splits and, with stronger emphasis, on the merging of ring-based overlays in the presence of network partitioning in the underlying Internet due to various reasons. We present a new merging algorithm named the Ring Reunion Algorithm and highlight a method for reducing the number of messages in both separated and united overlay states. The algorithm is parallelized for accelerated merging and is able to automatically detect overlay partitioning and start the corresponding merging processes. Through simulations, we evaluate the new Ring Reunion Algorithm in its simple and parallelized forms in comparison to a plain Chord algorithm, the Chord–Zip algorithm, and two versions of the Ring-Unification Algorithm. The evaluation shows that only our parallelized Ring Reunion Algorithm allows the merging of two, three, and more isolated overlay networks in parallel. Our approach quickly merges the overlays, even under churn, and stabilizes the node contacts in the overlay with small traffic overhead. Full article

Water management is a long-standing source of dispute between the riparian states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Recently, these disputes have intensified due to impacts from climate change and Bangalore’s rapid growth to megacity status. Despite well-defined national water governance instruments, competition between state actors and limited access to reliable hydrometric data have led to a fragmented regulatory regime, allowing unchecked exploitation of surface and groundwater resources. Meanwhile, subsidised energy for groundwater pumping incentivises the unsustainable irrigation of high-value, water-intensive crops, resulting in overextraction and harm to aquatic ecosystems. Here, we employ a water–energy–food–environment (WEFE) nexus approach to examine the socio-political, economic, and environmental factors driving unsustainable irrigation practices in the Cauvery River Basin (CRB) of Southern India. Our methodology integrates spatially explicit analysis using digitised irrigation census data, theoretical energy modelling, and crop water demand simulations to assess groundwater use patterns and energy consumption for irrigation and their links with governance and economic growth. We analyse spatio-temporal irrigation patterns across the whole basin (about 85,000 km²) and reveal the correlation between energy access and groundwater extraction. Our study highlights four key findings. First, groundwater pumping during the Rabi (short-rain) season consumes 24 times more energy than during the Kharif (long-rain) season, despite irrigating 40% less land. Second, the increasing depth of borewells, driven by falling water table levels, is a major factor in rising energy consumption. Third, energy input is highest in regions dominated by paddy cultivation. Fourth, water pumping in the Cauvery region accounts for about 16% of India’s agricultural energy use, despite covering only 4% of the country’s net irrigated area. Our study reinforces the existing literature advocating for holistic, catchment-wide planning, aligned with all UN Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

Volatility is a risk indicator for the stock market, and its measurement is important for investors’ decisions; however, few studies have investigated it. Only two systematic reviews focusing on volatility have been identified. In addition, with the advance of artificial intelligence, several machine learning algorithms should be reviewed. This article provides a systematic review of the factors, forecasts and simulations of volatility in the stock market using machine learning (ML) in accordance with PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis) review selection guidelines. From the initial 105 articles that were identified from the Scopus and Web of Science databases, 40 articles met the inclusion criteria and, thus, were included in the review. The findings show that publication trends exhibit a growth in interest in stock market volatility; fifteen factors influence volatility in six categories: news, politics, irrationality, health, economics, and war; twenty-seven prediction models based on ML algorithms, many of them hybrid, have been identified, including recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory, support vector machines, support regression machines, and artificial neural networks; and finally, five hybrid simulation models that combine Monte Carlo simulations with other optimization techniques are identified. In conclusion, the review process shows a movement in volatility studies from classic to ML-based simulations owing to the greater precision obtained by hybrid algorithms. Full article

In Europe and elsewhere in the world, current ambitious decarbonization targets push towards a gradual decommissioning of all fossil-fuel-based dispatchable electrical generation and, at the same time, foster a gradual increase in the penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Moreover, considerations tied to decarbonization as well as to the security of supply, following recent geo-political events, call for a gradual replacement of gas appliances with electricity-based ones. As RES generation is characterized by a variable generation pattern and as the electric carrier is characterized by scarce intrinsic flexibility, and since storage capabilities through electrochemical batteries, as well as demand-side flexibility contributions, remain rather limited, it is quite natural to think of other energy carriers as possible service providers for the electricity system. Gas and heat networks and, in the future, hydrogen networks could provide storage services for the electricity system. This could allow increasing the amount of RES penetration to be managed safely by the electric system without incurring blackouts and avoiding non-economically motivated grid reinforcements to prevent the curtailment of RES generation peaks. What is explained above calls for a new approach, both in electricity network dispatch simulations and in grid-planning studies, which extends the simulation domain to other carriers (i.e., gas, heat, hydrogen) so that a global optimal solution is found. This simulation branch, called multi-energy or multi-carrier, has been gaining momentum in recent years. The present paper aims at describing the most important approaches to static ME modeling by comparing the pros and cons of all of them with a holistic approach. The style of this paper is that of a tutorial aimed at providing some guidance and a few bibliographic references to those who are interested in approaching this theme in the next years. Full article

Can Chat Generative Pre-Trained Transformer or “ChatGPT” and other Large Language Models (LLMs) be used to create challenging and creative assignments for undergraduate students? This article explores the use of ChatGPT as an interview proxy for students. Drawing inspiration from the medical community’s concept of the simulated patient, ChatGPT was employed to act as an imagined proxy for a figure from the world of sports. Students in an undergraduate “Politics of Sport” course conducted interviews with the ChatGPT proxy using questions derived from peer-reviewed academic research. The assignment had two main objectives: to challenge students to engage meaningfully with academic research and apply it to real-world situations by simulating real-world conditions and to help students consider the limitations of ChatGPT when handling real-world scenarios. Despite some issues that arose during the module, student feedback and coursework indicated that this approach was engaging, fun, and creative for students. It is suggested that this method could be effectively applied across various academic disciplines. Full article

This paper explores the dynamics of political competition, resource availability, and conflict through a simulation-based approach. Utilizing agent-based models (ABMs) within an evolutionary game theoretical framework, we investigate how individual behaviors and motivations influence collective outcomes in civil conflicts. Our study builds on the theoretical model developed by Basuchoudhary et al. (2023), which integrates factors such as resource availability, state capacity, and political entrepreneurship to explain the evolution of civil conflict. By simulating boundedly rational agents, we demonstrate how changes in resource availability can alter the nature of civil conflict, leading to different equilibrium outcomes. The findings highlight the importance of understanding individual motivations and adaptive behaviors in predicting the stability and resolution of conflicts. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on the use of agent-based models in evolutionary game theory and provides valuable insights into the complex interactions that drive civil violence. Full article

South Africa’s national development plan has outlined aspirations to achieve a sustainable environment. However, the country remains bound for an unsustainable trajectory. Despite this ecological issue, no studies have probed how biomass and coal energy impact ecological quality. In light of this gap, this study inspects the environmental effect of political risk, coal energy, and biomass energy in South Africa. Also, this study integrates economic growth and natural resources into its framework. This study uses the load capacity factor (LC), which is a more aggregate proxy of ecological quality due to its accounting for the demand and supply aspect of the environment. This study uses the dynamic autoregressive distributive lag estimator (ARDL), which is capable of not only providing details of the influence of each determinant on LC in the long and short term but also of capturing the counterfactual shock of positive or negative exogenous variables on the LC. The kernel regularized least squares (KRLS) method is used for a robustness analysis of the dynamic ARDL approach. Furthermore, the findings of the dynamic ARDL simulation estimator disclose the negative impact of economic growth on the LC, thereby contributing to environmental deterioration by 0.552%. Natural resources and coal energy have an adverse impact on the LC, indicating a reduction in environmental sustainability by 0.037% and 0.290%, respectively. Meanwhile, biomass contributes to the LC, thereby promoting ecological quality by 0.421%. Political risk contributes to the reduction in the LC. This research provides pertinent policy considerations for policymakers and governments in South Africa, suggesting that the government of South Africa should invest in biomass energy and sustainable extraction procedures since biomass energy has a vital role in increasing ecological quality. Full article

This review proposes a novel integration of game-theoretical methods—specifically Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT), Stackelberg games, and Bayesian games—with deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to optimize electricity markets. Our approach uniquely addresses the dynamic interactions among power purchasing and generation enterprises, highlighting both theoretical underpinnings and practical applications. We demonstrate how this integrated framework enhances market resilience, informs evidence-based policy-making, and supports renewable energy expansion. By explicitly connecting our findings to regulatory strategies and real-world market scenarios, we underscore the political implications and applicability of our results in diverse global electricity systems. By integrating EGT with advanced methodologies such as DRL, this study develops a comprehensive framework that addresses both the dynamic nature of electricity markets and the strategic adaptability of market participants. This hybrid approach allows for the simulation of complex market scenarios, capturing the nuanced decision-making processes of enterprises under varying conditions of uncertainty and competition. The review systematically evaluates the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of various control policies implemented within electricity markets, including pricing mechanisms, capacity incentives, renewable integration incentives, and regulatory measures aimed at enhancing market competition and transparency. Our analysis underscores the potential of EGT to significantly enhance market resilience, enabling electricity markets to better withstand shocks such as sudden demand fluctuations, supply disruptions, and regulatory changes. Moreover, the integration of EGT with DRL facilitates the promotion of sustainable energy integration by modeling the strategic adoption of renewable energy technologies and optimizing resource allocation. This leads to improved overall market performance, characterized by increased efficiency, reduced costs, and greater sustainability. The findings contribute to the development of robust regulatory frameworks that support competitive and efficient electricity markets in an evolving energy landscape. By leveraging the dynamic and adaptive capabilities of EGT and DRL, policymakers can design regulations that not only address current market challenges but also anticipate and adapt to future developments. This proactive approach is essential for fostering a resilient energy infrastructure capable of accommodating rapid advancements in renewable technologies and shifting consumer demands. Additionally, the review identifies key areas for future research, including the exploration of multi-agent reinforcement learning techniques and the need for empirical studies to validate the theoretical models and simulations discussed. This study provides a comprehensive roadmap for optimizing electricity markets through strategic and policy-driven interventions, bridging the gap between theoretical game-theoretic models and practical market applications. Full article

As climate change intensifies with more frequent and severe flood events, urban areas face increasing challenges to protect population wellbeing. Amid urban development challenges, political uncertainty, and socioeconomic pressures, finding sustainable solutions to enhance urban resilience has become urgent and complex. This article explores the limitations of traditional drainage systems in an urban zone of Bucharest, Romania, and the integration of nature-based solutions for flood mitigation. We compare the existing situation with those simulated in a climate change scenario before and after implementing green solutions. The imperviousness of parking lots was set at 60%, that of green roofs at 65%, and that of parking lots at 85%. A hydraulic model was used for this purpose. The results demonstrate that the current stormwater systems struggle to meet the demands of increasing rainfall intensity and highlight how sustainable strategies can effectively address extreme weather challenges while contributing to the restoration of natural environments within the city. In the case of using ‘gray’ solutions, only 10–20% of the area affected by floods is reduced. In comparison, a combination of gray and green infrastructure achieved an average reduction in peak water levels of 0.76 m. Full article