Search Results (673)

In the context of low carbon, achieving accurate forecasting of electrical energy is critical for power management with the continuous development of power systems. For the sake of improving the performance of load forecasting, an improved MNet-Atten electric vehicle charging load forecasting based on composite decomposition and the evolutionary predator–prey and strategy model is proposed. In this light, through the data decomposition theory, each subsequence is processed using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and filters out high-frequency white noise by using singular value decomposition based on matrix operation, which improves the anti-interference ability and computational efficiency of the model. In the model construction stage, the MNet-Atten prediction model is developed and constructed. The convolution module is used to mine the local dependencies of the sequences, and the long term and short-term features of the data are extracted through the loop and loop skip modules to improve the predictability of the data itself. Furthermore, the evolutionary predator and prey strategy is used to iteratively optimize the learning rate of the MNet-Atten for improving the forecasting performance and convergence speed of the model. The autoregressive module is used to enhance the ability of the neural network to identify linear features and improve the prediction performance of the model. Increasing temporal attention to give more weight to important features for global and local linkage capture. Additionally, the electric vehicle charging load data in a certain region, as an example, is verified, and the average value of 30 running times of the combined model proposed is 117.3231 s, and the correlation coefficient PCC of the CEEMD-SVD-EPPS-MNet-Atten model is closer to 1. Furthermore, the CEEMD-SVD-EPPS-MNet-Atten model has the lowest MAPE, RMSE, and PCC. The results show that the model in this paper can better extract the characteristics of the data, improve the modeling efficiency, and have a high data prediction accuracy. Full article

The preservation of bridge infrastructure has become increasingly critical as aging assets face accelerated deterioration due to climate change, environmental loading, and operational stressors. This issue is particularly pronounced in regions with limited maintenance budgets, where delayed interventions compound structural vulnerabilities. Although traditional bridge inspections generate detailed condition ratings, these are often viewed as isolated snapshots rather than part of a continuous structural health timeline, limiting their predictive value. To overcome this, recent studies have employed various Artificial Intelligence (AI) models. However, these models are often restricted by fixed input sizes and specific report formats, making them less adaptable to the variability of real-world data. Thus, this study introduces a Transformer architecture inspired by Natural Language Processing (NLP), treating condition ratings, and other features as tokens within temporally ordered inspection “sentences” spanning 1993–2024. Due to the self-attention mechanism, the model effectively captures long-range dependencies in patterns, enhancing forecasting accuracy. Empirical results demonstrate 96.88% accuracy for short-term prediction and 86.97% across seven years, surpassing the performance of comparable time-series models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs). Ultimately, this approach enables a data-driven paradigm for structural health monitoring, enabling bridges to “speak” through inspection data and empowering engineers to “listen” with enhanced precision. Full article

Forecasting electricity consumption is one of the most important scientific and practical tasks in the field of electric power engineering. The forecast accuracy directly impacts the operational efficiency of the entire power system and the performance of electricity markets. This paper proposes algorithms for source data preprocessing and tuning XGBoost models to obtain the most accurate forecast profiles. The initial data included hourly electricity consumption volumes and meteorological conditions in the power system of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period from 2013 to 2025. The novelty of the study lies in defining and justifying the optimal model training period and developing a new evaluation metric for assessing model efficiency—financial losses in Balancing Energy Market operations. It was shown that the optimal depth of the training dataset is 10 years. It was also demonstrated that the use of traditional metrics (MAE, MAPE, MSE, etc.) as loss functions during training does not always yield the most effective model for market conditions. The MAPE, MAE, and financial loss values for the most accurate model, evaluated on validation data from the first 5 months of 2025, were 1.411%, 38.487 MWh, and 16,726,062 RUR, respectively. Meanwhile, the metrics for the most commercially effective model were 1.464%, 39.912 MWh, and 15,961,596 RUR, respectively. Full article

Forecasting national energy demand is challenging under climate variability and macroeconomic uncertainty. We assess whether hybrid Prophet–(Q)LSTM models that integrate climate and economic predictors improve long-horizon forecasts for The Netherlands. This study covers 2010–2024 and uses data from ENTSO-E (hourly load), KNMI and Copernicus/ERA5 (weather and climate indices), Statistics Netherlands (CBS), and the World Bank (macroeconomic and commodity series). We evaluate Prophet–LSTM and Prophet–QLSTM, each with and without stacking via XGBoost, under rolling-origin cross-validation; feature choice is guided by Bayesian optimisation. Stacking provides the largest and most consistent accuracy gains across horizons. The quantum-inspired variant performs on par with the classical ensemble while using a smaller recurrent core, indicating value as a complementary learner. Substantively, short-run variation is dominated by weather and calendar effects, whereas selected commodity and activity indicators stabilise longer-range baselines; combining both domains improves robustness to regime shifts. In sustainability terms, improved long-horizon accuracy supports renewable integration, resource adequacy, and lower curtailment by strengthening seasonal planning and demand-response scheduling. The pipeline demonstrates the feasibility of integrating quantum-inspired components into national planning workflows, using The Netherlands as a case study, while acknowledging simulator constraints and compute costs. Full article

With the large-scale development of smart grids and the integration of renewable energy, the operational complexity and load volatility of power systems have increased significantly, placing higher demands on the accuracy and timeliness of electricity load forecasting. However, existing methods struggle to capture the nonlinear and volatile characteristics of load sequences, often exhibiting insufficient fitting and poor generalization in peak and abrupt change scenarios. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a deep learning model named CGA-LoadNet, which integrates a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), gated recurrent units (GRUs), and a self-attention mechanism. The model is capable of simultaneously extracting local temporal features and long-term dependencies. To validate its effectiveness, we conducted experiments on a publicly available electricity load dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that CGA-LoadNet significantly outperforms baseline models, achieving the best performance on key metrics with an $R^2$ of 0.993, RMSE of 18.44, MAE of 13.94, and MAPE of 1.72, thereby confirming the effectiveness and practical potential of its architectural design. Overall, CGA-LoadNet more accurately fits actual load curves, particularly in complex regions, such as load peaks and abrupt changes, providing an efficient and robust solution for short-term load forecasting in smart grid scenarios. Full article

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is essential for efficient energy management, grid reliability, and cost optimization. This study presents a comprehensive comparison of five supervised learning models—Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), a hybrid (CNN-LSTM) architecture, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)—using multivariate data from the Greek electricity market between 2015 and 2024. The dataset incorporates hourly load, temperature, humidity, and holiday indicators. Extensive preprocessing was applied, including K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) imputation, time-based feature extraction, and normalization. Models were trained using a 70:20:10 train–validation–test split and evaluated with standard performance metrics: MAE, MSE, RMSE, NRMSE, MAPE, and $R^2$. The experimental findings show that LightGBM beat deep learning (DL) models on all evaluation metrics and had the best MAE (69.12 MW), RMSE (101.67 MW), and MAPE (1.20%) and the highest $R^2$ (0.9942) for the test set. It also outperformed models in the literature and operational forecasts conducted in the real world by ENTSO-E. Though LSTM performed well, particularly in long-term dependency capturing, it performed a bit worse in high-variance periods. CNN, GRU, and hybrid models demonstrated moderate results, but they tended to underfit or overfit in some circumstances. These findings highlight the efficacy of LightGBM in structured time-series forecasting tasks, offering a scalable and interpretable alternative to DL models. This study supports its potential for real-world deployment in smart/distribution grid applications and provides valuable insights into the trade-offs between accuracy, complexity, and generalization in load forecasting models. Full article

Accurate very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) is critical to ensure a secure operation of power systems under increasing uncertainty due to renewables. This study proposes an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-based VSTLF model that incorporates day-ahead load forecasts (DALF) results and load variation features. DALF results provide trend information for the target time, while load variation, the difference in historical electric load, captures residual patterns. The load reconstitution method is also adapted to mitigate the forecasting uncertainty caused by behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic (PV) generation. Input features for the proposed VSTLF model are selected using Kendall’s tau correlation coefficient and a feature importance score to remove irrelevant variables. A case study with real data from the Korean power system confirms the proposed model’s high forecasting accuracy and robustness. Full article

Most electric energy consumption in the building sector is provided by fossil fuels, leading to high greenhouse gas emissions. However, the increasing need for sustainable infrastructure has triggered a significant trend toward smart buildings, which enable optimal and efficient resource usage. In this context, accurate mid-term energy load forecasting is crucial for energy management. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model obtained through the combination of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches designed to enhance forecasting accuracy at an hourly granularity. The hybrid two-layer architecture first investigates the model’s performance individually, such as decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), FireNet, and long short-term memory (LSTM), and then combines them to leverage their complementary strengths in a two-layer hybrid design. The performance of these models is assessed on smart building energy datasets with weather data, and their accuracy is measured through performance metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and R-squared ($R^2$). The collected results show that the XGBoost outperformed other ML models. However, the hybrid model obtained by combining FireNet and XGBoost models delivers the highest overall accuracy for the performance parameters. These findings highlight the effectiveness of hybrid models in terms of prediction accuracy. This research contributes to reliable energy forecasting and supports environmentally sustainable practices. Full article

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources, driven by carbon neutrality goals, has intensified load variability, thereby making very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) more challenging. Accurate VSTLF is essential for the reliable and economical real-time operation of power systems. This study proposes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based VSTLF model designed to predict nationwide power system load, including renewable generation over a six-hour horizon with 15 min intervals. The model employs a reconstituted load approach that incorporates photovoltaic (PV) generation effects and computes representative weather variables across the country. Furthermore, the most informative input features are selected through a combination of correlation analyses. To further enhance input sequences, pseudo-trend components are generated using a Kalman filter-based predictor and integrated into the model input. The Kalman filter-based pseudo-trend produced an MAPE of 1.724%, and its inclusion in the proposed model reduced the forecasting error (MAPE) by 0.834 percentage points. Consequently, the final model achieved an MAPE of 0.890%, which is under 1% of the 94,929 MW nationwide peak load. Full article

This study combines an experimental semi-physical simulation model of an electric propulsion tugboat with four different neural networks to create a real-time simulation model for forecasting total power loads with small samples. The results of repeated experiments demonstrate that the BP neural network effectively forecasts the power load. Subsequently, addressing the limitations of traditional BP neural networks, an optimization approach employing an enhanced particle swarm algorithm and attention mechanism was developed, thereby improving the model’s prediction accuracy and robustness. The experiment shows that the improved prediction model achieves an R² value of 97.42%, demonstrating its effectiveness in forecasting changes in the short-term power load of ships as parameters change. In actual operation, ships can allocate power reasonably and in a timely manner according to the load forecast results, thereby improving the efficiency of the power grid. Full article

Ice loads continue to pose challenges to the structural safety of offshore wind turbines (OWTs), while the rapid development of offshore wind power in cold regions is enabling the deployment of OWTs in deeper waters. To accurately simulate the dynamic response of an OWT under combined ice–wind loading, this paper proposes a Discrete Element Method–Wind Turbine Integrated Analysis (DEM-WTIA) framework. The framework can synchronously simulate discontinuous ice-crushing processes and aeroelastic–structural dynamic responses through a holistic turbine model that incorporates rotor dynamics and control systems. To address the issue of insufficient prediction accuracy for dynamic responses, we introduced a multivariate time series forecasting method that integrates a secondary decomposition strategy with a hybrid prediction model. First, we developed a parallel signal processing mechanism, termed Adaptive Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Improved Singular Spectrum Analysis (CEEMDAN-ISSA), which achieves adaptive denoising via permutation entropy-driven dynamic window optimization and multi-feature fusion-based anomaly detection, yielding a noise suppression rate of 76.4%. Furthermore, we propose the F-Transformer prediction model, which incorporates a Frequency-Enhanced Channel Attention Mechanism (FECAM). By integrating the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) into the Transformer architecture, the F-Transformer mines hidden features in the frequency domain, capturing potential periodicities in discontinuous data. Experimental results demonstrate that signals processed by ISSA exhibit increased signal-to-noise ratios and enhanced fidelity. The F-Transformer achieves a maximum reduction of 31.86% in mean squared error compared to the standard Transformer and maintains a coefficient of determination (R²) above 0.91 under multi-condition coupled testing. By combining adaptive decomposition and frequency-domain enhancement techniques, this framework provides a precise and highly adaptable ultra-short-term response forecasting tool for the safe operation and maintenance of offshore wind power in cold regions. Full article

With the transition of the energy structure and the continuous development of smart grids, short-term user-side load forecasting plays a key role in fine power dispatch and efficient system operation. However, existing parameter optimization methods lack multi-dimensional and physically interpretable fitness evaluation. They also fail to fully exploit frequency-domain features of decomposed modal components. These limitations reduce model accuracy and robustness in complex scenarios. To address this issue, this paper proposes a short-term user-side load forecasting method based on the MCPO-VMD-FDFE decomposition-enhanced framework. Firstly, a multi-dimensional fitness function is designed using indicators such as modal energy entropy and energy concentration. The Crested Porcupine Optimizer with Multidimensional Fitness Function (MCPO) algorithm is applied in VMD (Variational Mode Decomposition) to optimize the number of decomposition modes (K) and the penalty factor (α), thereby improving decomposition quality. Secondly, each IMF component obtained from VMD is analyzed by FFT. Key frequency components are selectively enhanced based on adaptive thresholds and weight coefficients to improve feature expression. Finally, a multi-scale convolution module is added to the PatchTST model to enhance its ability to capture local and multi-scale temporal features. The enhanced IMF components are fed into the improved model for prediction, and the final output is obtained by aggregating the results of all components. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves the best performance on user-side load datasets for weekdays, Saturdays, and Sundays. The RMSE is reduced by 45.65% overall, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed approach in short-term user-side load forecasting tasks. Full article

Accurate and efficient short-term load forecasting is crucial for the secure and stable operation and scheduling of power grids. Addressing the inability of traditional Transformer-based prediction models to capture symmetric correlations between different feature sequences and their susceptibility to multi-scale feature influences, this paper proposes a short-term power distribution network load forecasting model based on an enhanced Komodo Mlipir Algorithm (KMA)—Multivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (MVMD)-Crossformer. Initially, the KMA is enhanced with chaotic mapping and temporal variation inertia weighting, which strengthens the symmetric exploration of the solution space. This enhanced KMA is integrated into the parameter optimization of the MVMD algorithm, facilitating the decomposition of distribution network load sequences into multiple Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) components with symmetric periodic characteristics across different time scales. Subsequently, the Multi-variable Rapid Maximum Information Coefficient (MVRapidMIC) algorithm is employed to extract features with strong symmetric correlations to the load from weather and date characteristics, reducing redundancy while preserving key symmetric associations. Finally, a power distribution network short-term load forecasting model based on the Crossformer is constructed. Through the symmetric Dimension Segmentation (DSW) embedding layer and the Two-Stage Attention (TSA) mechanism layer with bidirectional symmetric correlation capture, the model effectively captures symmetric dependencies between different feature sequences, leading to the final load prediction outcome. Experimental results on the real power distribution network dataset show that: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the proposed model is as low as 14.7597 MW, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is 13.9728 MW, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reaches 4.89%, and the coefficient of determination (R²) is as high as 0.9942. Full article

With the advancement of new power system construction, thermostatically controlled loads represented by regional air conditioning systems are being extensively integrated into the grid, leading to a surge in the number of user nodes. This large-scale integration of new loads creates challenges for the grid, as the resulting load data exhibits strong periodicity and randomness over time. These characteristics are influenced by factors like temperature and user behavior. At the same time, spatially adjacent nodes show similarities and clustering in electricity usage. This creates complex spatiotemporal coupling features. These complex spatiotemporal characteristics challenge traditional forecasting methods. Their high model complexity and numerous parameters often lead to overfitting or the curse of dimensionality, which hinders both prediction accuracy and efficiency. To address this issue, this paper proposes a load forecasting method based on spatiotemporal partitioning and collaborative cross-regional attention. First, a spatiotemporal similarity matrix is constructed using the Shape Dynamic Time Warping (ShapeDTW) algorithm and an adaptive Gaussian kernel function based on the Haversine distance. Spectral clustering combined with the Gap Statistic criterion is then applied to adaptively determine the optimal number of partitions, dividing all load nodes in the power grid into several sub-regions with homogeneous spatiotemporal characteristics. Second, for each sub-region, a local Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network (STGCN) model is built. By integrating gated temporal convolution with spatial feature extraction, the model accurately captures the spatiotemporal evolution patterns within each sub-region. On this basis, a cross-regional attention mechanism is designed to dynamically learn the correlation weights among sub-regions, enabling collaborative fusion of global features. Finally, the proposed method is evaluated on a multi-node load dataset. The effectiveness of the approach is validated through comparative experiments and ablation studies (that is, by removing key components of the model to evaluate their contribution to the overall performance). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves excellent performance in short-term load forecasting tasks across multiple nodes. Full article

This work proposes a design technique to facilitate the design and optimization of a highperformance power amplifier (PA) in an automated manner. The proposed optimizationoriented strategy consists of the implementation of four deep neural networks (DNNs), sequentially. Firstly, a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM)-based DNN is trained based on the X-parameters for which the hyperparameters are optimized through the multi-objective ant lion optimizer (MOALO) algorithm. This step is significant since it conforms to the hidden-layer construction of DNNs that will be trained in the following steps. Afterward, a generative adversarial network (GAN) is employed for forecasting the load–pull contours on the Smith chart, such as gate and drain impedances that are employed for the topology construction of the PA. In the third phase, the classification the BiLSTM-based DNN is trained for the employed high-electron-mobility transistor (HEMT), leading to the selection of the optimal configuration of the PA. Finally, a regression BiLSTMbased DNN is executed, leading to optimizing the PA in terms of power gain, efficiency, and output power by predicting the optimal design parameters. The proposed method is fully automated and leads to generating a valid PA configuration for the determined transistor model with much more precision in comparison with long short-term memory (LSTM)-based networks. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, it is employed for designing and optimizing a PA operating from 1.8 GHz up to 2.2 GHz at 40 dBm output power. Full article