Search Results (172)

This study investigates volatility spillovers from the stock markets of the United States, Germany, China, and Japan to the UK stock market using daily data from major benchmark indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, DAX, Shanghai Composite, and Nikkei 225) and Brent crude oil prices. Using a novel two-stage bootstrap framework, we first model time-varying conditional volatilities with GARCH-family models and compare them with long-memory FIGARCH specifications to account for persistent volatility dynamics. These volatilities are then incorporated into a VAR-X model, treating Brent crude oil price volatility as an endogenous or exogenous variable in robustness checks. To overcome limitations of traditional VARs, bootstrap-corrected GIRFs are employed to trace dynamic, order-invariant impacts across key sub-periods: the global financial crisis, Brexit, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war. We also benchmark our results against the Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index and conduct rigorous out-of-sample forecasting and Value-at-Risk backtesting. Results reveal heterogeneous spillovers: US and German shocks trigger strong, immediate, and persistent UK market volatility, reflecting deep integration; Chinese shocks are delayed and gradual, while Japanese shocks are muted or short-lived. Spillover intensity is time-varying, peaking during global crises. Our model outperforms standard benchmarks in out-of-sample volatility forecasting and risk management applications. The study offers critical insights for investors seeking international diversification and for policymakers aiming to manage systemic risk in an interconnected global financial system. Full article

Using a quantile–frequency connectedness framework, this study analyzes the regime-contingent and horizon-specific transmission of shocks among AI assets, FinTech markets, and Blue Economy financial instruments. The empirical results reveal a distinctly asymmetric connectedness structure, whereby high-frequency spillovers intensify in upper-quantile states associated with liquidity stress and sentiment-driven trading, while low-frequency connectedness remains comparatively muted, thereby preserving cross-segment diversification potential. AI assets emerge as dominant net transmitters in short-horizon dynamics, reflecting rapid innovation cycles and speculative adjustments. FinTech markets exhibit stabilizing properties under median regimes but transition into net propagation roles when risk conditions escalate. Blue finance instruments act as conditional net absorbers, attenuating volatility originating from digital innovation-driven markets, particularly during adverse market states. By decomposing spillover intensities across quantiles and spectral bands, the analysis highlights a structural differentiation between innovation-sensitive digital assets and the comparatively stable behavior of blue-themed financial assets. These findings advance the understanding of nonlinear dependence, asymmetric contagion, and state-dependent co-movements in emerging financial ecosystems. The results provide actionable insights for systemic-risk measurement, cross-market shock diagnostics, and multi-asset portfolio construction in an increasingly interconnected global financial system. Full article

According to the Australasian Society for Developmental Paediatrics, experiential learning and outdoor play contain elements of risk, bravery, uncertainty, exploration, personal challenge, and adventure. These attributes are fundamental to a child’s growth, development, and wellbeing, and yet, in contemporary society, outdoor experiences have significantly declined. This scoping review explores the benefits and affordances of nature-based risky play and adventure education across early childhood and adolescence, asking what developmental opportunities emerge when children and adolescents engage in meaningful outdoor challenges. Adopting a benefit–risk approach where safety is “as safe as necessary” rather than “as safe as possible,” the review identifies common elements across developmental stages. A scoping review following PRISMA-ScR guidelines synthesised empirical studies (2015–2025). Our review included 40 empirical studies from a total of 5218 references, using diverse methodologies conducted predominantly in Western nations. All 40 studies reported positive associations across multiple developmental domains. Eight key themes developed: resilience and confidence, wellbeing, physical skills, autonomy and agency, nature connectedness, quality play provision, and educator influence. Authentic child agency and autonomy functioned as critical mechanisms through which benefits are realised across early childhood and school-aged populations. Key benefits included enhanced mental health, social competence, and anxiety prevention. Implementation barriers persist, including parental anxiety, institutional liability concerns, and cultural risk aversion. Evidence overwhelmingly supports nature-based risky play and outdoor adventure education as beneficial for child and adolescent development. Translation into practice remains limited by stakeholder attitudes and systemic barriers. Future research should prioritise longitudinal studies, cross-cultural investigation, and equity-focused approaches addressing disparities in access to positive risk-taking. Full article

We show that financial integration in emerging Asia is state-dependent in the sense that cross-market linkages vary systematically across regimes of global uncertainty and market stress. Focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, this study combines a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP–VAR) with a GARCH–MIDAS volatility model to link short-run transmission to long-run behavioural effects. We construct a regional investor-sentiment (IS) index from Google search data on five macro-financial topics using principal component analysis and analyse it together with global benchmarks (MSCI EM, S&P 500), gold, clean-energy equities, and macro-uncertainty indicators. The TVP–VAR maps dynamic spillovers among the ASEAN-5 and external nodes, while the GARCH–MIDAS relates the slow component of variance to investor attention. The evidence indicates that connectedness tightens in stress regimes, with global benchmarks and policy uncertainty acting as transmitters and ASEAN equities absorbing incoming shocks. In the volatility block, the Google-based IS factor exerts a negative and economically meaningful influence on the long-run component over and above global uncertainty, supporting the view that attention and uncertainty function as complementary channels of risk propagation. The integrated framework is parsimonious and replicable, and it offers actionable insights for regime-aware risk management, policy communication, and the timing of green-finance issuance in emerging markets. Full article

Background: Lifestyle factors often interact in complex ways when influencing chronic disease risk. We aimed to examine the prospective associations between empirically derived real-life lifestyle patterns (LPs) and the incidence of major chronic diseases, and to explore the linearity of the relationships between lifestyle summation scores and disease risk. Methods: We included adults free of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), or type 2 diabetes (T2D) at baseline (2006–2013) from the Dutch Lifelines cohort. LPs and lifestyle summation scores were derived from baseline self-reported data on diet, physical activity, substance use, sleep, stress, and social connectedness, each categorised as healthy, moderately healthy, or unhealthy. Fine–Gray sub-hazard regression models assessed associations between LPs and disease incidence, with natural spline functions used to evaluate linearity in summation scores. Results: Among 114,919 T2D-free, 131,248 cancer-free, 91,777 CRD-free, and 77,645 CVD-free participants, we observed 3114 T2D, 4685 cancer, 4133 CRDs, and 2850 CVD incident cases (median follow-up time: 8 years). Compared to the “Unhealthy” pattern, both the “Healthy-in-a-balanced-way” and “Healthy-but-physically-inactive” patterns were broadly significantly protective. The “Unhealthy-but-no-substance-use” pattern was associated with increased T2D risk (Sub-Hazard Ratio (SHR) = 1.27, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.11–1.47) but reduced cancer risk (SHR = 0.85, 95%CI: 0.74–0.97). The “Unhealthy-but-light-drinking-and-never-smoked” pattern was protective for T2D (SHR = 0.89, 95%CI: 0.79–0.99). Linear associations were observed between lifestyle summation scores and disease risk, except for “healthy lifestyle” scores with T2D and “unhealthy lifestyle” scores with CRDs (non-linear p-value < 0.05). Conclusions: There are potential protective effects of healthy lifestyles on T2D, cancer, CRDs, and CVDs. However, the “Unhealthy but no substance use” demonstrated increased risk on T2D, protective effect on cancer and no significant effect on CRDs or CVDs. The relationship between combined lifestyle factors and NCD risk is complex and partly non-linear, showing diminishing benefits beyond certain thresholds, especially T2D and CRDs. Full article

Gifted students with neurodivergent profiles such as ADHD, autism, or dyslexia demonstrate unique cognitive and learning characteristics that can shape their educational experiences and socio-emotional development. Often referred to as twice-exceptional (2e), these students benefit from environments that recognise their strengths while responding to their diverse learning needs. Understanding the interplay between giftedness and neurodivergence is therefore essential for fostering strengths-based environments to support these students’ overall well-being. This review focuses on 2e students with ADHD, a subgroup within the gifted population who remain underexamined in the current literature. While existing research has emphasised the academic and diagnostic complexities associated with this cohort, limited studies have focused on the socio-emotional factors influencing their development. This systematic view aimed to identify and synthesise findings from existing research on the socio-emotional factors influencing the mental health of gifted students with ADHD. A comprehensive search was conducted across the EBSCO, ProQuest, and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses databases. Following PRISMA guidelines, 10 studies out of 438 met the predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria and were critically appraised using the JBI checklists for qualitative and cross-sectional designs. These 10 papers were categorised based on authorship, title, year of publication, population, study design, theoretical frameworks, key findings, and identified risk or protective factors. The findings indicate that gifted students with ADHD experience distinct challenges in forming and maintaining peer relationships. Additionally, the intersection of giftedness and ADHD is noted as a potential risk factor, rather than a protective factor, for lower self-esteem and social connectedness. The limitations of this review, along with implications for future research and educational practice, are discussed. Full article

This study employs a quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach to analyze the asymmetric, distribution-dependent, and time-varying spillovers between FinTech indices and traditional financial markets. The results show that spillovers are concentrated in the distribution tails, with FinTech indices exhibiting strong co-movements with equities and Bitcoin under extreme conditions, while linkages with U.S. Treasury bonds are weaker and often inverse. Net connectedness analysis reveals that the S&P 500 and Bitcoin act as the primary transmitters of shocks into FinTech indices, whereas Treasuries generally serve as receivers, except during stress episodes when safe-haven flows or heightened credit risk reverse the direction of spillovers. The dynamic ∆TCI (Difference between the total direct connectedness and the reverse total connectedness) further demonstrates that FinTech indices serve as net transmitters in stable markets but become receivers during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle of 2022–2023, and the FTX-driven crypto collapse. Segmental heterogeneity is also evident: distributed ledger firms are highly sensitive to cryptocurrency dynamics, alternative finance providers respond strongly to both equity and bond markets, and digital payments firms are primarily influenced by equity spillovers. Overall, the findings underscore FinTech’s dual role—transmitting shocks during tranquil periods but amplifying systemic vulnerabilities during crises. For investors, diversification benefits are state-dependent and largely disappear under adverse conditions. For regulators and policymakers, the results highlight the systemic importance of FinTech–equity and crypto–ledger linkages and the need to integrate FinTech exposures into macroprudential surveillance to contain volatility spillovers and safeguard financial stability. Full article

This research investigates the different strategies and the dynamic connectedness among AI, ESG, and brown assets from 19 March 2017 to 19 March 2025. Differentiating between contemporaneous and lagged spillover influences provides a detailed view of how the technology-driven and traditional energy sectors interact under shifting geopolitical and environmental conditions. The results indicate that the AI and ESG markets serve as the primary transmitters of information to traditional energy, particularly under extreme market conditions, including the second Trump administration and the Red Sea tensions. Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the findings document that such developments are catalyzing significant shifts toward AI and ESG markets. The findings demonstrate that integrating AI and sustainability principles enhances energy market stability, reduces systemic risk, and accelerates the transition toward low-carbon, climate-resilient energy futures. Full article

This study examines the diversification and hedging potential of non-conventional assets like cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), FinTech equities (FINXs), and green bonds (QGREENs) against traditional equity benchmarks, namely the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices using daily data from 2016 to 2021. Employing Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR), network connectedness analysis, and the Minimum Connectedness Portfolio (MCoP) approach, the study uncovers dynamic interdependencies among these markets. The results reveal that Bitcoin consistently acts as a net receiver of shocks, providing strong diversification benefits during crisis periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. FinTech assets show moderate resilience, while green bonds primarily serve as shock transmitters with limited hedging ability. Optimal portfolio weights indicate the highest allocation to Bitcoin, followed by FinTech and green assets, supporting their inclusion in diversified portfolios. Overall, the findings underscore Bitcoin’s superior risk-mitigating role and highlight the strategic importance of digital assets in achieving portfolio stability and sustainability in volatile global markets. Full article

Using a time-frequency and quantile connectedness approach, our study examines the complex return spillovers dynamics between BRICS Plus stock markets, the volatility index (VIX), and the global geopolitical risk index (GPRD). By employing advanced models such as TVP-VAR, quantile connectedness, and spectral decomposition, we demonstrate how these markets interact across different market conditions and periods. Our results indicate that the VIX consistently acts as the dominant net transmitter of shocks, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukraine conflict, and the Trump-era U.S.-China trade tensions. In contrast, the GPRD functions predominantly as a net receiver of shocks, indicating its potential role as a hedge during geopolitical crises. BRICS Plus markets exhibit heterogeneous behavior: Brazil, South Africa, and Russia frequently emerge as net transmitters, while China, India, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE primarily act as net receivers. Spillovers are strongest at the extremes of the return distribution and are mainly driven by short-term dynamics, underscoring the importance of high-frequency reactions over persistent long-term effects. These findings highlight the asymmetric, nonlinear, and state-dependent nature of global financial contagion, offering important insights for risk management, asset allocation, and macroprudential policy design in emerging market contexts. Full article

This paper investigates the frequency dynamics of financial and macroeconomic connectedness by measuring tail-risk and uncertainty for two emerging African economies, namely Morocco and Tunisia, over the quarterly period Q2-2010 to Q4-2024. We employ a quantile connectedness approach, which, unlike traditional mean-based methods, leads to capturing asymmetries, tail-risk dependencies, and state-dependent spillovers, and to providing early warning signals of systemic stress and financial uncertainty. Our results reveal a stark divergence between the two stock markets in their roles in transmitting and absorbing shocks. The Moroccan stock market acts as a net transmitter, occasionally driving macroeconomic conditions and propagating uncertainty throughout the system. In contrast, the Tunisian stock market acts as a net receiver, with macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly GDP and money supply. These findings highlight how structural differences in emerging markets affect the transmission of shocks and offer actionable insights for policymakers, regulators, and investors to manage financial risks and uncertainty. Full article

Major events and external uncertainty shocks have made energy risk connectedness increasingly complex. This paper applies a LASSO-regularized VAR combined with the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness framework (LASSO-VAR-DY) to trace how China’s energy risk spillover effects evolve under major event shocks and to quantify sectoral risk spillover inflows. We then employ a TVP-SV-VAR model to further examine the impulse responses of energy sectors to external uncertainties. The results show that the energy system exhibits a high overall level of risk connectedness with pronounced stage-wise variation and is sensitive to different external uncertainty shocks. Major-event shocks intensify sector-level risk connectedness—the clean-energy sector consistently acts as a net risk receiver. In contrast, other sectors switch between net transmitters and net receivers across shocks. Different major events operate through heterogeneous mechanisms—the COVID-19 pandemic and the official launch of the national carbon market primarily strengthen node-to-node connectedness. In contrast, the Russia-Ukraine conflict chiefly amplifies spillover intensity between nodes. The effects of uncertainty index shocks differ markedly: economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has the most substantial impact, followed by climate policy uncertainty (CPU), while geopolitical risk (GPR) is the weakest. Full article

The rapid integration of FinTech and sustainability-oriented sectors is reshaping financial risk dynamics, particularly in emerging markets such as China. This study investigates tail-dependent spillovers among ten Chinese FinTech and sustainability-linked sectors from 2015–2024 using a factor-purged Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) with generalized forecast error variance decompositions. By isolating idiosyncratic shocks, the framework uncovers how risk creation, transmission, and absorption vary across market states. Results show that (i) FinTech acts as a net transmitter of shocks in adverse (lower-tail) states, amplifying downside risk to clean energy and green innovations; (ii) policy-intensive sectors (environmental and atmospheric governance) switch roles across quantiles, revealing asymmetric regulatory spillovers; and (iii) diversification benefits compress in the tails, with cross-sector linkages intensifying during crises. These findings highlight the importance of quantile-specific stress testing for regulators and the design of state-contingent hedging strategies for portfolio managers. Full article

Background/Objectives: In Japan, the rapid aging of the population has increased the need for strategies to extend healthy life expectancy and prevent care dependency. Social isolation has been identified as a major risk factor for adverse physical and psychological outcomes, but its interaction with psychological resilience factors remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the association between social isolation and the risk of care dependency among community-dwelling older adults, and to investigate whether the sense of coherence (SOC) moderates this relationship. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in City A, Kagawa Prefecture, involving 519 residents aged 65 years or older. Social isolation was assessed using the Japanese version of the Lubben Social Network Scale-6 (LSNS-6), and SOC was measured with a validated three-item scale from the University of Tokyo. The risk of care dependency was evaluated using a 15-item checklist developed by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology. Nutritional status was measured using the Mini Nutritional Assessment–Short Form. Multiple imputation (m = 50) handled missing data. Standardized linear regression analyses estimated main and interaction effects, followed by robustness checks using robust, gamma, and bootstrap analyses. Results: Lower levels of social connectedness were associated with a higher risk of care dependency. A moderating trend of SOC was observed (β = 0.100, p = 0.004), suggesting that the adverse impact of social isolation may be greater among individuals with lower SOC. Conclusions: These findings suggest that SOC may play a potential buffering role mitigating the adverse effects of social isolation. Although the explanatory power of the model was moderate, the observed trends highlight the potential importance of psychosocial resources for preventive care among older adults. Full article

Previous research on financial contagion has mostly looked at volatility spillovers using static or fixed parameter models. These models don’t always take into account how inter-market links change and depend on frequency during big crises. This study fills in that gap by looking at how changes in volatility in the G20 equity markets affected four big global events: the global financial crisis of 2008, the European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. The study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP VAR) framework along with the Baruník-Křehlík frequency domain spillover measure to look at how connectedness changes over short-term (1–5 days) and long-term (5–Inf days) time periods. The results show that systemic connectedness changes a lot during crises. For example, the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) was 24–25 percent during the GFC and EDC, 34 percent during COVID-19, and a huge jump to 60 percent during the Russia-Ukraine war. During the global financial crisis and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US constantly emerged as the largest transmitter. During the European debt crisis, on the other hand, emerging markets like Turkey, South Africa, and Japan acted as net transmitters. During all crisis times, short-term spillovers are the most common. This shows how important high-frequency volatility transmission is. This study is different from others because it uses both time-varying and frequency domain views. This gives us a better idea of how crises change the way global finances are linked. The results are very important for policymakers and investors because they show how important it is to coordinate risk management, improve market safety, and make systemic stress testing better in a global financial world. Full article