Search Results (1,778)

Droughts are increasingly threatening ecological balance, agricultural productivity, and socio-economic resilience—especially in semi-arid regions like the Inner Mongolia segment of China’s Yellow River Basin. This study presents a hybrid drought forecasting framework integrating machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models with high-resolution historical and downscaled future climate data. TerraClimate observations (1985–2014) and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections (2030–2050) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were utilized to develop and evaluate the models. Among the tested ML algorithms, Random Forest (RF) demonstrated the best trade-off between accuracy and interpretability and was selected for feature importance analysis. The top-ranked predictors—precipitation, solar radiation, and maximum temperature—were used to train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The LSTM outperformed all ML models, achieving high predictive skill (R² = 0.766, CC = 0.880, RMSE = 0.885). Scenario-based projections revealed increasing drought severity and variability under SSP5-8.5, with mean PDSI values dropping below −3 after 2040 and deepening toward −4 by 2049. The high-emission scenario also exhibited broader uncertainty bands and amplified interannual anomalies. These findings highlight the value of hybrid AI–climate modeling approaches in capturing complex drought dynamics and supporting anticipatory water resource planning in vulnerable dryland environments. Full article

Climate change research is increasingly important in regions vulnerable to extreme hydrometeorological events like droughts, which pose significant socio-economic and environmental challenges. This study examines future variability of meteorological drought in northernmost South America using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and precipitation projections from CMIP6 models. We first evaluated model performance by comparing historical simulations with observational data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset for 1981–2014. Among the models, CNRM-CM6-1-HR was selected for its superior accuracy, demonstrated by the lowest errors and highest correlation with observed data—specifically, a correlation coefficient of 0.60, a normalized root mean square error of 1.08, and a mean absolute error of 61.37 mm/month. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, projections show decreased rainfall during the wet months in the western Perijá mountains, with reductions of 3% to 26% between 2025 and 2100. Conversely, the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta is expected to see increases of up to 33% under SSP1-2.6. During dry months, northern Colombia and Venezuela—particularly coastal lowlands—are projected to experience rainfall decreases of 10% to 17% under SSP1-2.6 and 13% to 20% under SSP5-8.5. These areas are likely to face severe drought conditions in the mid and late 21st century. These findings are essential for guiding water resource management, enabling adaptive strategies, and informing policies to mitigate drought impacts in the region. Full article

Global climate change and rapid urbanization have intensified urban heat risks, particularly in cities such as Jinan that face pronounced heat-related environmental challenges. This study takes Jinan’s main urban area as a case example, integrating the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) framework with the Hazard–Exposure–Vulnerability–Adaptability (HEVA) model to develop multi-temporal heat risk maps. The results indicate the following: (1) High-risk zones are primarily concentrated in the densely built urban core, whereas low-risk areas are mostly located in peripheral green spaces, water bodies, and forested regions. (2) Heat risk shows clear diurnal patterns, peaking between noon and early afternoon and expanding outward from the city center. (3) LCZ6 (open low-rise), despite its theoretical advantage for ventilation, exhibits unexpectedly high levels of heat hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. (4) SHAP-based analysis identifies land surface temperature (LST), floor area ratio (FAR), impervious surface area ratio (ISA), housing value, building coverage ratio (BCR), and the distribution of cooling facilities as the most influential drivers of heat risk. These findings offer a scientific foundation for developing multi-scale, climate-resilient urban planning strategies in Jinan and hold significant practical value for improving urban resilience to extreme heat events. Full article

As climate variability intensifies, its impacts are increasingly visible through disrupted agricultural systems and rising food insecurity, especially in climate-sensitive regions. This study explores the complex relationships between environmental stressors, such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and soil degradation, with food insecurity outcomes in selected districts of Uttarakhand, India. Using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, this study analyzes 19 stressors affecting the food supply chain and identifies the nine most influential factors. An Environmental Stressor Index (ESI) is constructed, integrating climatic, hydrological, and land-use dimensions. The ESI is applied to three districts—Rudraprayag, Udham Singh Nagar, and Almora—to assess their vulnerability. The results suggest that Rudraprayag faces high exposure to climate extremes (heatwaves, floods, and droughts) but benefits from a relatively stronger infrastructure. Udham Singh Nagar exhibits the highest overall vulnerability, driven by water stress, air pollution, and salinity, whereas Almora remains relatively less exposed, apart from moderate drought and connectivity stress. Simulations based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate increasing stress across all regions, with Udham Singh Nagar consistently identified as the most vulnerable. Rudraprayag experiences increased stress under the RCP 8.5 scenario, while Almora is the least vulnerable, though still at risk from drought and pest outbreaks. By incorporating crop yield models into the ESI framework, this study advances a systems-level tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change. This research holds global relevance, as food supply chains in climate-sensitive regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America face similar compound stressors. Its novelty lies in integrating a Fuzzy DEMATEL-based Environmental Stressor Index with crop yield modeling. The findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed food system planning and policies that integrate environmental and social vulnerabilities. Full article

Raptors, being at top of the food chain, serve as important models to study the impact of changing climate, as they are more vulnerable due to their unique ecology. They are vulnerable to extinction, with 52% species declining population and 18% are threatened globally. The effect of climate change on raptors is poorly studied in the Eastern Himalayan region. The present study offers a complete investigation of climate change effects on the raptors in the northeast region of the Eastern Himalayas, employing ensemble species distribution modeling. The future predictions were employed to model the climate change across two socioeconomic pathways (SSP) i.e. SSP245 and SSP585 for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Specifically, five algorithms were employed for the ensemble model, viz. boosted regression tree (BRT), generalized linear model (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and random forest (RF). The study highlights worrying results, as only 10.5% area of the NE region is presently suitable for Falco severus, 11.4% for the critically endangered Gyps tenuirostris, and a mere 6.9% area is presently suitable for the endangered Haliaeetus leucoryphus. The most influential covariates were precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month, and temperature seasonality. Future projection revealed reduction of 33–41% in suitable habitats for F. severus, G. tenuirostris is expected to lose 53–96% of its suitable habitats, and H. leucoryphus has lost nearly 94–99% of its suitable habitats. Such decline indicates apparent habitat fragmentation, with shrinking habitat patches. Full article

This study pioneers a fully remote sensing-based framework for mapping heatwave susceptibility, integrating the TabTransformer deep learning model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for robust hyperparameter tuning. The central question addressed is whether a fully remote sensing-driven, PSO-optimized TabTransformer can achieve accurate, scalable, and spatially detailed heatwave susceptibility mapping in data-scarce regions such as Central Asia. Utilizing ERA5-derived heatwave evidence and thirteen environmental and socio-economic predictors, the workflow produces high-resolution susceptibility maps spanning five Central Asian countries. Comparative analysis evidences that the PSO-optimized TabTransformer model outperforms the baseline across multiple metrics. On the test set, the optimized model achieved an RMSE of 0.123, MAE of 0.034, and R² of 0.938, outperforming the standalone TabTransformer (RMSE = 0.132, MAE = 0.038, R² = 0.93). Discriminative capacity also improved, with AUROC increasing from 0.933 to 0.940. The PSO-tuned model delivered faster convergence, lower final loss, and more stable accuracy during training and validation. Spatial outputs reveal heightened susceptibility in southern and southwestern sectors—Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, and adjacent lowlands—with statistically significant improvements in spatial precision and class delineation confirmed by Chi-squared, Friedman, and Wilcoxon tests, all with congruent p-values of <0.0001. Feature importance analysis consistently identifies maximum temperature, frequency of hot days, and rainfall as dominant predictors. These advancements validate the potential of data-driven, deep learning approaches for reliable, scalable environmental hazard assessment, crucial for climate adaptation planning in vulnerable regions. Full article

Wild orchids, valued for their beauty and economic importance, are facing the challenges of distribution contraction and range shifts from climate change. The rare Cymbidium cyperifolium (class II in the List of National Key Protected Wild Plants in China, Vulnerable on the China Biodiversity Red List) remains understudied regarding its responses to climate variability. Utilizing an enhanced MaxEnt model, we predicted suitable habitats under diverse climate scenarios, revealing a potential distribution of 52.37 × 10⁴ km², concentrated in eastern Yunnan, western Guangxi, the Guizhou border, and southern Hainan. Cymbidium cyperifolium is sensitive to climate change, and temperature annual range (Bio 7) contributes a significant 77.42% of the distribution probability (i.e., habitat suitability), highlighting temperature’s pivotal influence on its distribution. Although the overall potential distribution area and low-suitability regions in China are predicted to decrease, medium and high-suitability areas are expected to expand. The center of mass of the high-altitude habitat is concentrated in southeastern Yunnan Province, migrating just slightly, yet tending westward and northeastward. Based on these findings, we recommend the expansion of existing protected areas or the establishment of new ones for C. cyperifolium, particularly in eastern Yunnan and western Guangxi. Additionally, our research can serve as a reference for the ex situ conservation of C. cyperifolium and other orchids with similar ecological habits, underscoring the broader implications in biodiversity preservation efforts. Full article

This study examines the effects of climate change on maize production in Romania between 2003 and 2024, focusing on yield dynamics, regional disparities, and economic losses. Maize, a key crop in Romanian agriculture, has become increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly droughts, which remain the most frequent risk. The analysis highlights a marked decline in maize yields and cultivated area in recent years, strongly correlated with severe droughts in 2020, 2022, and 2024. The results show that western and northern counties display greater resilience, while southeastern regions face significant yield losses. The economic impact is substantial, with losses exceeding EUR 1 billion. These findings underscore the systemic nature of climate-related risks and call for region-specific adaptation strategies, expanded irrigation infrastructure, and index-based insurance schemes to strengthen resilience and ensure sustainable maize production under changing climatic conditions. Full article

This paper presents the development of a high-resolution composite index to monitor and quantify climate-related risks across Italy. The country’s complex climatic variability, extensive coastline, and low insurance penetration highlight the urgent need for robust, locally calibrated tools to bridge the climate protection gap. Building on the methodological framework of existing actuarial climate indices, previously adapted for France and the Iberian Peninsula, the index integrates six standardised indicators capturing warm and cool temperature extremes, heavy precipitation intensity, dry spell duration, high wind frequency, and sea level change. It leverages hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data and monthly sea level observations from tide gauges. Results show a clear upward trend in climate anomalies, with regional and seasonal differentiation. Among all components, sea level is most strongly correlated with the composite index, underscoring Italy’s vulnerability to marine-related risks. Comparative analysis with European indices confirms both the robustness and specificity of the Italian exposure profile, reinforcing the need for tailored risk metrics. The index can support innovative risk transfer mechanisms, including climate-related insurance, regulatory stress testing, and resilience planning. Combining scientific rigour with operational relevance, it offers a consistent, transparent, and policy-relevant tool for managing climate risk in Italy and contributing to harmonised European frameworks. Full article

In the Mediterranean basin, olive cultivation occupies the largest share of agricultural land, due to the region’s favorable soil and climatic conditions. However, the intensification of farming systems has had negative environmental impacts, for which diversified approaches such as agroforestry offer a potential solution. The objective of the present study was to determine the growth of barley, triticale, and pea as cover crops, as well as the respective intercrops in olive orchards and their productivity. The results showed that the intercropping of pea with barley and triticale had the highest yields in dry biomass compared to the other treatments, while barley monoculture recorded the highest yield in terms of grain. The findings demonstrated that intercropping enhances resource-use efficiency, particularly in terms of land productivity, Radiation-Use Efficiency, and Water-Use Efficiency. However, competitive dynamics varied significantly between species and across years, with pea often exhibiting dominance in biomass production, while cereals showed trade-offs in seed yield components due to shading and interspecific competition. These findings can be used for sustainable intensification strategies, ensuring higher productivity while minimizing external inputs in climate-vulnerable regions. Full article

Riparian zones, located at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic systems, are among the most dynamic and ecologically valuable landscapes. These transitional areas play a pivotal role in maintaining environmental health by supporting biodiversity, regulating hydrological processes, filtering pollutants, and stabilizing streambanks. At the core of these functions lie the unique characteristics of riparian soils, which result from complex interactions between water dynamics, sedimentation, vegetation, and microbial activity. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the origin, structure, and functioning of riparian soils, with particular attention being paid to their physical, chemical, and biological properties and how these properties are shaped by periodic flooding and vegetation patterns. Special emphasis is placed on Mediterranean riparian environments, where marked seasonality, alternating wet–dry cycles, and increasing climate variability enhance both the importance and fragility of riparian systems. A bibliographic study, covering 25 years (2000–2025), was carried out through Scopus and Web of Science. The results highlight that riparian areas are key for carbon sequestration, nutrient retention, and ecosystem connectivity in water-limited regions, yet they are increasingly threatened by land use change, water abstraction, pollution, and biological invasions. Climate change exacerbates these pressures, altering hydrological regimes and reducing soil resilience. Conservation requires integrated strategies that maintain hydrological connectivity, promote native vegetation, and limit anthropogenic impacts. Preserving riparian soils is therefore fundamental to sustain ecosystem services, improve water quality, and enhance landscape resilience in vulnerable Mediterranean contexts. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the energy systems in eight Eastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia—focusing on their energy transition, security of supply, decarbonisation, and energy efficiency. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering techniques, we identify three different energy profiles: countries dependent on fossil fuels (e.g., Poland, Bulgaria), countries with a balanced mix of nuclear and fossil fuels (e.g., the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary), and countries focusing mainly on renewables (e.g., Slovenia, Croatia). The sectoral analysis shows that industry and transport are the main drivers of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, and the challenges and policy priorities of decarbonisation are determined. Regression modelling shows that dependence on fossil fuels strongly influences the use of renewable energy and electricity consumption patterns, while national differences in per capita electricity consumption are influenced by socio-economic and political factors that go beyond the energy structure. The Decarbonisation Level Index (DLI) indicator shows that Bulgaria and the Czech Republic achieve a high degree of self-sufficiency in domestic energy, while Hungary and Slovakia are the most dependent on imports. A typology based on energy intensity and import dependency categorises Romania as resilient, several countries as balanced, and Hungary, Slovakia, and Croatia as vulnerable. The projected investments up to 2030 indicate an annual increase in clean energy production of around 123–138 TWh through the expansion of nuclear energy, the development of renewable energy, the phasing out of coal, and the improvement of energy efficiency, which could reduce CO₂ emissions across the region by around 119–143 million tons per year. The policy recommendations emphasise the accelerated phase-out of coal, supported by just transition measures, the use of nuclear energy as a stable backbone, the expansion of renewables and energy storage, and a focus on the electrification of transport and industry. The study emphasises the significant influence of European Union (EU) policies—such as the “Clean Energy for All Europeans” and “Fit for 55” packages—on the design of national strategies through regulatory frameworks, financing, and market mechanisms. This analysis provides important insights into the heterogeneity of Eastern European energy systems and supports the design of customised, coordinated policy measures to achieve a sustainable, secure, and climate-resilient energy transition in the region. Full article

This study assesses the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) on wood-consuming mills in coastal Georgia, a major forestry state in the southern United States. To assess the vulnerability of wood-consuming mills in coastal Georgia, two potential wood procurement zones are defined: areas within 40 miles (64.4 km) and 64 miles (103 km) of the radius of each wood-consuming mill. The projected SLR scenarios of 2 ft (0.61 m) and 6 ft (1.83 m)—approximating intermediate and high-end conditions for coastal Georgia, respectively—are then overlaid onto the procurement zones of each mill to calculate the percentage of procurement area lost to the inundation. Our findings indicate that a 2 ft rise would have a minimal impact on wood supply for most wood-consuming mills. On the other hand, some facilities in Glynn and Liberty Counties could experience a substantial loss of up to 26% of their wood procurement area under a 6 ft sea level rise with a 40-mile wood procurement zone due to proximity to inundation. A larger procurement radius of 64 miles mitigates this impact, though spatial variability persists. Woody wetlands suffer the highest proportional losses across buffers and scenarios; upland forest types remain mostly intact under 2 ft SLR and display moderate loss under 6 ft. This study emphasizes the significance of accounting for spatially variable climate change impacts when planning for mill resilience. The results inform long-term sustainability strategies for wood-consuming mills in coastal regions of Georgia and beyond. Full article

Agricultural drought, increasingly intensified by climate change, poses a significant threat to food security and water resources in semi-arid regions, including Türkiye’s Konya Closed Basin. This study evaluates six satellite-derived indices—Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Evapotranspiration Condition Index (ETCI), and Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI)—to monitor agricultural drought (2001–2024) and proposes a drought vulnerability map using a novel Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Integrating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), and Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) datasets, the DVI combines these indices with weighted contributions (VHI: 0.27, ETCI: 0.25, SMCI: 0.22, PCI: 0.26) to spatially classify vulnerability. The results highlight severe drought episodes in 2001, 2007, 2008, 2014, 2016, and 2020, with extreme vulnerability concentrated in the southern and central basin, driven by prolonged vegetation stress and soil moisture deficits. The DVI reveals that 38% of the agricultural area in the basin is classified as moderately vulnerable, while 29% is critically vulnerable—comprising 22% under high vulnerability and 7% under extreme vulnerability. The proposed drought vulnerability map offers an actionable framework to support targeted water management strategies and policy interventions in drought-prone agricultural systems. Full article

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events (ECEs) is expected to significantly affect crop yields in the future, threatening regional and global food security. However, uncertainties in yield projections persist due to regional variability, model differences, and scenario assumptions. Leveraging historical agricultural disaster and meteorological data from China (1995–2014), this study employs the vulnerability curve assessment to determine the most appropriate models for assessing crop yields affected by different ECEs (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme low temperature, and extreme wind) across six regions. By integrating multi-model and multi-scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) future climate data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we conducted pooled prediction of the individual and combined impacts of different ECEs on crop yields for the near-term (2020–2040) and mid-term (2041–2060). The median of multi-model prediction of crop yield reductions in China was −16.0% (range: −32.5% to −2.6%), with more severe losses in Northeast, Northwest, and North China, particularly under higher radiative forcing scenarios. Drought is the most destructive of the four types of ECEs. These results will aid decision-makers in identifying high-risk zones for crop yields affected by ECEs and provide a scientific basis for the developing targeted adaptation strategies in various regions. Full article