Search Results (35)

This study empirically examines the impact of the Areas subject to permission of transaction (ASPLT) implemented by Seoul City on local real estate markets. Focusing on the case of the Seoul International District (MICE project area), where the regulated area (the geo-graphical districts subject to ASPLT) was initially designated, lifted, and later re-imposed, the analysis employs a modified repeat sales Difference-in-Differences (DID) methodology to assess its policy effect on housing price stabilization. The results indicate that the regulated areas experienced more subdued transaction volumes and price increases compared to non-regulated areas, suggesting the policy was effective in curbing short-term speculative demand. Additionally, neighboring areas exhibited signs of spillover effects due to displaced investment interest. The findings highlight both the utility and limitations of localized real estate controls and offer empirical insights for future policy design. Full article

Peri-urbanization in rapidly growing cities of the Global South is increasingly driven not only by demographic growth but by escalating inner-city land and housing prices that push households and developers toward peripheral zones. Bangalore exemplifies this transition, where housing affordability pressures, speculative real estate investment, and weak land governance interact to transform agricultural landscapes into fragmented built-up clusters. Using satellite imagery (1991–2024), census data, and GIS-based land-use classification, this study quantifies peri-urban expansion across eight clusters in the Bangalore Metropolitan Region. The results show rapid built-up growth, agricultural land decline, and increasing spatial fragmentation, reflecting processes of extended urbanization beyond formal city boundaries. These transformations produce environmental stress, infrastructure deficits, and socio-spatial inequalities. The paper situates Bangalore within planetary urbanization debates and argues that peri-urban sustainability depends on land market regulation, spatial planning capacity, and data-driven governance. Full article

There has been substantial debate regarding the consequences of overtourism in cities. Scholars have also examined variables that are directly and indirectly related to tourism, including demography, urban rehabilitation and requalification, gentrification, speculation in the real estate market, the influence of digital booking platforms, and the expansion of short-term rental (STR) accommodation. This research seeks to develop a clearer spatial understanding of this last one. By analyzing their distribution, density (maximum occupancy), and clustering and by employing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this article will propose methodologies to better visualize spatial patterns, providing different perspectives of the city of Lisbon and its most tourism-intensive parishes. The article finds that STRs in Lisbon have expanded rapidly, concentrating overwhelmingly in six historic parishes where STR supply and maximum occupancy now exceed resident populations and housing availability. GIS analysis reveals intense clustering in central neighborhoods—especially Alfama—indicating significant tourism pressure and signs of overtourism. These spatial patterns correlate with depopulation and rising housing costs. The study concludes that STR are now a decisive factor in urban imbalance and that detailed spatial analysis is essential for regulating tourism, defining carrying-capacity thresholds, and developing more sustainable, socially just urban planning policies. Full article

Soaring housing prices worldwide are compromising housing affordability, potentially leading to significant economic, social, and health repercussions. Understanding the price discovery process within the real estate market is therefore crucial for policymakers. While the relationship between land and housing prices in urban residential markets has been widely examined in the literature, the results are often context-specific, leaving the question of whether the land market leads the housing market or vice versa open to debate. Saudi Arabia, with its rapidly growing real estate market, evolving demographics and urbanization trends, and transformative regulatory reforms, presents a compelling context for revisiting the land–housing nexus. This study examines the long-term relationship between land and housing markets and investigates the short-term price dynamics with the ultimate goal of understanding the price formation in the housing market. The study dataset comprises quarterly time-series price indices published by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) in Saudi, representing the nation-wide price movements of residential lands and villas from 2014Q1 to 2025Q1. The study employs the Johansen cointegration method and the Granger causality testing. The results of cointegration analysis confirm a significant long-run equilibrium relationship between the two markets, while the error correction model reveals that both land and housing prices adjust to restore this equilibrium. Granger causality test results show a unidirectional relationship, where land prices predict future housing prices, consistent with the neoclassical rent theory. These findings reinforce the long-term, intrinsic link between land and housing markets observed in prior studies. The dynamics in the Saudi market are likely shaped by rapid urbanization that intensified speculation in the land market, and also the prevalence of self-building enabled by government-supported financing. This study underscores the importance of striking a delicate balance between supply and demand side policies in the real estate market while monitoring the impact of these policies on housing affordability. Full article

A multitude of studies have extensively examined strategies for achieving sustainable development in the real estate market. As the pivotal component of land economy, the real estate market plays a crucial role in ensuring its sound operation. However, it is currently undergoing significant adjustments and grappling with rampant speculative activities, resulting in an alarming bubble. By scrutinizing the speculative motivations of different entities, we present a novel perspective on mitigating speculation. Our analysis reveals that digital inclusive finance effectively curbs residents’ and enterprises’ speculative behavior, as evidenced by diminished prevention motivation and investment substitution motivation. Utilizing data from 280 cities, this study measures real estate market speculation by establishing a model that the volatility of the housing market turnover, as a proportion of GDP, deviates from the actual housing demand transactions based on economic fundamentals. Furthermore, it investigates the relationship between digital inclusive finance and real estate market speculation, along with its spatial effects. The findings indicate that digital inclusive finance significantly curbs real estate market speculation and has a negative spatial spillover effect. This research provides a novel model and perspective for exploring real estate market speculation while positively impacting sustainable development within the real estate market. Full article

Real estate developers typically assess potential projects using feasibility analyses and industry-standard heuristics, which include capital costs, return on costs, and a subjective risk measure. This study explores real estate developers’ decision-making practices in selecting hurdle rates and common feasibility analysis techniques, surveying 225 Australian and New Zealand developers. The main findings are that most developers use specific ‘go/no-go’ hurdle rate mechanisms irrespective of primary real estate type, with the majority using margin on development cost (MDC) or internal rate of return (IRR); the boundaries between traditional speculative development and real estate investment through the use of securitization methods have become blurred; many developers use both quantitative metrics, with qualitative methods and specific structural checks to manage the risks involved; and the two most frequent methods of determining site value prior to acquisition are the residual land value and discounted cash flow methods. Most place a heavy reliance on industry-accepted heuristics and do not have a predetermined process and method for altering or adapting the chosen hurdle rates and benchmarks. This research provides a contribution to property development practice from the Antipodean perspective which until now has been more focused on the UK view, enabling more generalized application internationally. Full article

To understand urbanization across the Global South, it is indispensable to consider situated heterogeneous urban situations shaped by global and local forces and their intersections. In the case of Mexico, the political and economic desire for globalization has extended beyond the great metropolis of Mexico City to mid-size cities triggering the formulation of their own urban strategies to become global. This paper explores the connections between neoliberal public policy, globalization, urban modeling, and socio-territorial sustainability in the territorial binomial of the city of Puebla and the municipality of San Andrés Cholula in the period of 2011–2017 and its current consequences, addressed by the local planning route map, and informed by the Orange Economy-guide of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), using relevant bibliographical sources, mapping, interviews of stakeholders, and fieldwork. The ultimate purpose of the research project described herein is to provide a multi-dimensional analysis of the development of the territorial situation of the Puebla-San Andrés Cholula-urban binomial, and of its current and potential future consequences, offering supporting information for its urban planning. The research results exposed here reveal urban modeling processes informed by the Global North urban globalization theory, development of global cities in the Global South, local socio-territorial dynamics characterized by economic and political interests imprinted in the public policy, and socio-territorial patterns inherited from the colonial past, resulting in socio-economic and racial discrimination, population displacements, real estate speculation, and risking ecological and environmental sustainability. Full article

Urban spatial interaction integrates cities into closely related urban network systems in continuous urban regions. However, it also brings differentiation and has mutual negative impacts between each location. Unbalanced development is one such impacts and needs closely monitoring. The housing vacancy rate (HVR) in a continuous urban region is an important index in the unbalanced development of a continuous urban region since it indicates the uneven distribution of population and investment across cities. This study uses NPP-VIIRS NTL data and Landsat 8 OLT images to estimate HVRs at the district level. Additionally, this study tracks the spatial–temporal dynamics of HVR distributions in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. The comparison between the sampled HVRs and estimated HVRs verifies the effectiveness of the estimated HVRs in identifying dynamic changes in HVRs. This study has found that although overall decreasing HVRs are observed in the PRD, speculations and irrational real estate investment exist in cities on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary and in some isolated districts in other cities. Furthermore, increasing proportions of vacant pixels in most cities indicate rising real estate development, requiring further supervision. This study suggests that more precise data and advanced techniques could help to improve the accuracy of the estimation techniques. Full article

The stability of the real-estate market is crucial to China’s economic development and, in times of crisis, the economy will experience systemic adverse reactions that require appropriate regulation by the state using tax policy tools. Therefore, we analyzed the impact of real-property tax on house prices using panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2020 using an empirical method, i.e., the instrumental variables approach. The empirical results show that each of the previous property-related taxes actually contributed to the increase in house prices and did not have a dampening effect. The newly introduced property tax will lead to a decline in house prices, which will help to alleviate the overheating of real-estate investment and mitigate the real-estate bubble crisis. A rational view of the impact of a property tax on housing prices needs to be taken in the context of factors such as income levels, consumer price levels, loan rates, and Chinese consumer culture. In order to achieve the goal of “no speculation in housing”, we also need to pay attention to the regulating effect of a property tax in combination with many other factors. This study is important for promoting property tax reform, curbing overheated real-estate investment, and promoting healthy economic development. Full article

This paper constructs a mathematical model to study China’s urban real estate markets, in which there are different types of demands from house buyers, and housing suppliers adopt the strategy of quality differentiation second-degree price discrimination. Our theoretical result shows that, in China’s case, without government intervention in the housing market, it is almost inevitable that the prices of both housing and the related resources will rocket. To achieve the goal of “houses built for inhabitance”, we put forward a policy scheme to achieve “houses built for inhabitance” in China’s cities from the perspectives of “speculation limitation” and “price control”. We also conduct a numerical analysis to consider the macroeconomic effects of these two policy solutions on the housing market, and we conclude that Chinese authorities should introduce a resale tax in the housing market and learn from Singapore’s experience in housing market regulation. Full article

While the current housing market remains relatively strong, with housing prices setting records, concerns are growing of a potential housing bubble similar to that of 2007–2009; this paper compares the current housing market environment with that of 2007–2009 and concludes that the many of the factors that caused the 2007–2009 crisis do not exist today. Factors associated with subprime mortgages, poor and non-existent underwriting loan requirements, weak regulatory oversight, exaggerated credit ratings, under-capitalization in the banking sector and excessive speculative activity in the housing market have been addressed by regulation, which is aimed at preventing another financial crisis similar to 2007–2009. Equally important, major fundamental factors affecting real estate valuation are providing support for the housing market and housing prices; these factors are impacting both the demand and supply side of the housing market. The factors include the lack of inventories of homes available for sale, the underproduction of housing, decreased household mobility limiting supply and the increase in housing demand from millennials and institutional investors; these fundamental factors were not evident during the 2007–2009 period. Despite a number of indicators signaling a potential topping out and overvaluation of housing prices, the authors conclude that the fundamental factors will limit the extent that the housing market weakens over the next few years. Full article

The increasing expansion of open-pit mining and the drastic transformations of land use in Latin America have led to processes of rural depopulation among traditional inhabitants, causing unsustainability in rural life systems. In the context of profound, worldwide territorial and environmental transformations, it is necessary to anticipate change scenarios and identify territories prone to rural depopulation. The objective of this article is to determine rural depopulation propensities through an exploratory multivariate study of the demographic, social, economic, and environmental conditions of territories where open-pit mining projects are being installed. First, a theoretical model is created using the grounded theory method for the literature review. Subsequently, indicators are analyzed using quantitative methods and geographic information systems. The results show that latent rural depopulation tends to be generated in territories with socio-environmental vulnerability, where advanced mining extractivism makes them prone to future depopulation. Some factors possibly leading to decreased rural population include the reduction of water availability; deforestation and depeasantization, due to urban development; gentrification, due to real estate speculation in providing lodging and food services to the mining project; and drastic changes in land use. Full article

In March 2021, a case of speculation that abused private internal information came to light, which involved a group of public officials from the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH), and has since been labeled the ‘LH Scandal’. In this scandal, land was misappropriated as a means of creating fraudulent values, instead of returning it to marginalized people in real need of residential space. As a result of this, preventive measures for similar cases have become warranted. Consequently, related laws have been passed, but this is only expected to show its effect as a follow-up response, therefore requiring a preemptive response plan. In this paper, we will propose a conceptual framework that can detect speculation that abuses private internal information, enabling a preemptive response, utilizing outlier detection and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) methods. The system is designed to create a database (DB) with private inside real estate information, which is linked to another DB with a list of outlier-detected areas that can potentially indicate speculation, and then the system confirms any speculation by comparing the two DBs accordingly. Once a speculation case is confirmed, the system automatically reports the case to the investigative agency. By using this system, we expect to detect hidden speculation cases already committed, as well as speculation cases in real-time. Ultimately, we hope to protect the original purpose of redevelopment and the construction of new towns (housing/retail mixed-use zones), redistributing available land on behalf of marginalized people, who are lacking in residential space, by raising the utility of land. Full article

This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the Scandinavian countries namely Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over the period from 1980Q1 to 2018Q4 and searches for evidence of bubble migration among those countries. First, we apply the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) on quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios to test for exuberance and episodic bubbles. Subsequently, we examine bubble migration between these markets using the non-parametric model with time-varying coefficients (NPM-TVC) developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016). We find evidence of episodic bubbles in all the Scandinavian real estate markets for the period 1980 to 2018. Our results also indicate that housing bubbles are contagious between these markets during several periods, and the market connection is stronger for geographically neighboring countries. Full article

In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in inflation-linked units from 1994 to 2020. The analysis was based on a second order Markov switching model with the predetermined variables mentioned later, whose parameters were obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm. Then, we built a probability index as early warning indicator for potential imbalances in the real estate price that could put financial market stability at risk. The indicator is important to evaluate economic policy calibrations in time. A main finding was that the real housing price had a non-linear relationship with economic activity and the mortgage interest rate. Therefore, the evolution of the real estate price has been consistent with fundamental macroeconomic variables, even under a high growth regime, with increases above 12% per year. About 92% of housing price variability derived from changing macrofinancial conditions, suggesting a low margin of speculative behavior. Full article