Search Results (506)

In July 2024, a major rainfall-induced landslide disaster occurred in Zixing county, Hunan Province, triggering more than 4000 landslides with a total area exceeding 21 km². The scale of this hazard underscores a critical need for long-term stability assessment of the affected slopes. While previous studies have primarily used optical remote sensing to map landslide distributions, quantitative evaluation of post-failure movement dynamics remains limited. This study developed an integrated monitoring framework that combines time-series SBAS-InSAR displacement measurements (using Sentinel-1 data from August 2024 to September 2025) with deep learning-based optical interpretation, rainfall analysis, and geological data. Our approach enables the quantitative, region-scale stability assessment of the Zixing landslide cluster one year after the initial event. Experimental results reveal sustained surface displacement with rates ranging from −30 to 30 mm/year, and localized displacements exceeding 40 mm/year. Notably, over 48% of the mapped landslides are classified as active or critically active, indicating widespread, ongoing instability. Correlation analysis further establishes precipitation as a key driver of accelerated movement. Beyond the Zixing case, this work provides a transferable methodology for assessing long-term post-disaster landslide behavior, offering direct value for regional hazard management and early-warning systems. Full article

In the context of global warming, the prediction of extreme precipitation events faces great challenges, especially the ensemble forecast of convective-scale heavy precipitation. Taking the heavy rainstorm in Zhengzhou on 20 July 2021 as an example, this paper aims to explore the performance of the convective-scale ensemble forecasting system based on the local breeding model cultivation method (LBGM) in extreme precipitation forecasting, and reveal the key physical mechanisms affecting the quality of forecasting. The traditional scoring (TS, Bias), neighborhood FSS and Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) methods were used to systematically evaluate the precipitation forecast, and the superior and inferior forecast members were diagnosed and analyzed by combining physical quantities such as isentropy vortex, relative vorticity, and water vapor flux divergence. The results show that: (1) the LBGM-EPS system can better capture the spatial distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation, which is better than the single deterministic forecast; (2) The CRA method is better than the traditional score in describing the spatial structure and intensity of precipitation, and can effectively identify the good and bad members of the forecast. (3) The reason why the dominant forecast members perform better is that the simulation of the dynamic-thermal structure of the mesoscale convective vortex is more reasonable, especially the coupling mechanism of the downward transmission of the high-level vortex and the convergence of water vapor at the lower level is better. The preliminary application of convective-scale ensemble forecasting based on the LBGM in this study has reference value for improving the prediction ability of extreme precipitation. Full article

Forest fires pose a severe threat to ecosystems and human safety in the mountainous Liangshan Prefecture, China. To enhance early warning capabilities, this study constructs a fire risk prediction model by combining FY-4A satellite data, historical fire records, and terrain data. Through principal component analysis and multicollinearity diagnostics, critical factors including topography, vegetation indices (NDVI, NDII7), and a moisture index (TVDI) were selected for a logistic regression model. The model successfully identifies key risk drivers, with vegetation moisture content (NDII7) being the most influential. Validation shows the model achieves an AUC of 0.77 and a prediction accuracy of 71.5%, confirming its effectiveness. This work demonstrates the utility of China’s FY-4 satellite for operational forest fire risk forecasting, providing a methodological basis for improved disaster prevention. Full article

In the Yingjiang area of western Yunnan, precipitation is high throughout the year, making it one of the regions with the highest annual precipitation in mainland China. Extreme rainfall in this region often triggers severe flooding, yet the key mechanism of water vapor transport underlying abnormally heavy precipitation remains unclear. This study used automatic weather station observations of precipitation, the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data to analyze, for the first time, large-scale water vapor transport, precipitation mechanisms, and the primary water vapor sources and their contributions in this region. The results show the following: In the Yingjiang area, the water vapor sources at all height levels in summer are dominated by the southwest monsoon water vapor transport pathways, such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, with their total contributions to specific humidity and water vapor flux exceeding 70%. This indicates that low-latitude sea areas such as the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea serve as key moisture source regions for Yingjiang in the global water vapor cycle. Water vapor transport over the windward slope causes strong low-level convergence and high-level divergence phenomena, and the suction effect leads to strong upward motion near the 850 hPa level. The pseudo-equivalent potential temperature isolines tilt along the mountain slope, maintaining an unstable stratification characterized by warm, humid lower layers and cold, dry upper layers, providing favorable thermal conditions for precipitation. In addition, in the summer of 2020, abnormally high southwest seasonal wind and air transport, combined with strong low-level convergence and high-level divergence of the vertical circulation structure, were key factors causing the abnormally high precipitation. This study provides an important reference for the prediction of extreme precipitation and the early warning of rainstorm disasters in the southwest monsoon region in the context of global climate change. Full article

Urban flood information enables managers to rapidly synthesize comprehensive flood event profiles, serving as critical evidence for flood control decision making. Compared with traditional methods, public data offer unprecedented spatiotemporal granularity due to its high volume, multidimensionality, and real-time nature. In this paper, we investigated public data’s usefulness and generalizability of spatial feature differences using multi-source social media data as an entry point. We selected rainstorm events that occurred in three cities located in the North China Plain, the Southeast Coastal Region, and the Western Region of China, with vastly different developmental statuses in 2023. Then, multi-platform data from the events were collected and analyzed through crawling and topic mining. The results indicate that: (1) social media data from different sources are complementary to each other and can collectively extract plenty of neglected waterlogging points to supplement official data, with a supplementary rate reaching 171% on average; and (2) social media data has significant value in spatial characterization, which means that its availability remains constant despite geographical differences and can self-adapt to local geography, inhabitant profiles and social development levels. To address the issues of limited available data and essential information lacking during the analysis process, we propose recommendations for data processing and city managers to enhance the scientific value of social media data utilized in practice. Full article

Geostationary atmospheric motion vectors (e.g., FY4A AMVs) are routine mid-upper atmospheric observations used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, yet their complex spatiotemporal errors and assimilation limitations, i.e., high-temporal/coarse-spatial data and large-scale-adjustment/direct-assimilation scheme, leave unclear impacts of AMVs assimilation on nowcasting forecasts. To this end, a Nudging-Forced–3DVar scheme (NFV) is designed within a multi-scale (i.e., 12, 4, and 1 km) regional NWP framework to exploit AMVs characteristics; ablation experiments for the Zhengzhou “7.20” rainstorm isolate Nudging and 3DVar impacts on assimilation and nowcasting. Results show the following: (1) large-scale Nudging and high-resolution 3DVar both improve mid-upper analyses, with the former ingesting more observations; (2) Nudging retains large-scale background updates but yields significant misses, whereas 3DVar intensifies rainfall extremes yet blurs fine structures; (3) NFV merges its strengths, modulating deep convection through upper-level systems and markedly improving rainfall spatiotemporal patterns. Therefore, NFV is recommended for the FY4A AMVs’ future numerical nowcasting, which provides useful guidance for the regional application of geostationary 3D winds. Full article

This study presents a four-year (2021–2024) radar-based analysis of warm cloud (non-glaciated) dynamics across northern Thailand, specifically characterizing their properties, kinematics, and occurrence. Utilizing high-resolution S-band dual-polarization weather radar data, a total of 20,493 warm cloud events were tracked and analyzed, with identification based on a maximum reflectivity (≥35 dBZ) and a cloud top height below the seasonal 0 °C isotherm. Occurrence exhibited a profound seasonal disparity, with the rainy season (82.68% of events) dominating due to the influence of the moist Southwest Monsoon (SWM), while the spatial distribution confirmed that convective initiation is exclusively concentrated over mountainous terrain, underscoring orographic lifting as the essential mechanical trigger. Regarding properties, while vertical development and mass are greater in the warm seasons, microphysical intensity and Duration (mean ~26 min) remain highly uniform, suggesting a constrained, efficient warm rain process. In kinematics, clouds move fastest in winter (mean WSPD ~18.38 km/h), yet pervasive directional chaos (SD > 112°) highlights the strong influence of terrain-induced local circulations. In conclusion, while topography dictates where warm clouds form, the monsoon dictates when and how robustly they develop, creating intense, short-lived events that pose significant operational constraints for localized precipitation enhancement strategies. Full article

Rainstorm floods constitute one of the major natural hazards threatening the safe and stable operation of power grid facilities. Constructing a rapid and accurate prediction model is of great significance in order to enhance the disaster prevention capacity of the power grid. This study proposes a rapid prediction model for urban rainstorm flood targeting power grid facilities based on deep learning. The model utilizes computational results of high-precision mechanism models as data-driven input and adopts a dual-branch prediction architecture of space and time: the spatial prediction module employs a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and the temporal prediction module integrates convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and attention mechanism (ATT). The constructed water dynamics model of the right bank of Liangshui River in Fengtai District of Beijing has been verified to be reliable in the simulation of the July 2023 (“23·7”) extreme rainstorm event in Beijing (the July 2023 event), which provides high-quality training and validation data for the deep learning-based surrogate model (SM model). Compared with traditional high-precision mechanism models, the SM model shows distinctive advantages: the R² value of the overall inundation water depth prediction of the spatial prediction module reaches 0.9939, and the average absolute error of water depth is 0.013 m; the R² values of temporal water depth processes prediction at all substations made by the temporal prediction module are all higher than 0.92. Only by inputting rainfall data can the water depth at power grid facilities be output within seconds, providing an effective tool for rapid assessment of flood risks to power grid facilities. In a word, the main contribution of this study lies in the proposal of the SM model driven by the high-precision mechanism model. This model, through a dual-branch module in both space and time, has achieved second-level high-precision prediction from rainfall input to water depth output in scenarios where the power grid is at risk of flooding for the first time, providing an expandable method for real-time simulation of complex physical processes. Full article

Accurately assessing collapse risks of high-elevation, concealed rock mass blocks within the steep cliffs of Bijiashan, Three Gorges Reservoir Area, is challenging. This study employed a multidimensional approach—integrating airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), the transient electromagnetic method (TEM), close-range photogrammetry, horizontal drilling, and borehole optical imaging—to characterize the rock mass structure of the WD1 cliff belt and delineate 52 individual blocks. Stability analysis incorporated stereographic projection for macro-scale assessment and employed mechanical models specific to three primary failure modes (toppling, sliding, falling). Finite element strength reduction quantified the stress–strain response of a representative block under natural and rainstorm conditions. Particle Flow Code (PFC) simulated dynamic instability of the exceptionally large block W1-37. Results indicate the WD1 rock mass is highly fractured, with base sections prone to weakness. Toppling failure dominates (90.4%). Under rainstorm conditions, the average Factor of Safety (FOS) decreased by 14.7%, and 73.1% of the blocks that were stable under natural conditions were destabilized—specifically transitioning to marginally stable or substable states—often triggering chain-reaction instability characterized by “crack propagation—base buckling”. W1-37 exhibited staged failure under rainstorm: “strain localization at fissure tips—penetration of basal cracks—overturning of the upper rock mass”. Its frontal rock reached a peak sliding velocity of 15.17 m/s, indicative of base-breaking toppling. The integrated “multi-technology survey—multi-method evaluation—multi-scale simulation” framework provides a quantitative basis for risk assessment of rock mass disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and offers a technical paradigm for similar high-steep canyon regions. Full article

With the rapid development of the Internet of Things (IOT), 5G, and modern power systems, demand-side loads are becoming increasingly observable and remotely controllable, which enables demand-side flexibility to participate more actively in grid dispatch and emergency support. Under extreme rainstorm conditions, however, component failure risk rises and the availability and dispatchability of demand-side flexibility can change rapidly. This paper proposes a risk-aware emergency regulation framework that translates rainstorm information into actionable multi-load aggregation decisions for urban power systems. First, demand-side resources are quantified using four response attributes, including response speed, response capacity, maximum response duration, and response reliability, to enable a consistent characterization of heterogeneous flexibility. Second, a backpropagation (BP) neural network is trained on long-term real-world meteorological observations and corresponding reliability outcomes to estimate regional- or line-level fault probabilities from four rainstorm drivers: wind speed, rainfall intensity, lightning warning level, and ambient temperature. The inferred probabilities are mapped onto the IEEE 30-bus benchmark to identify high-risk areas or lines and define spatial priorities for emergency response. Third, guided by these risk signals, a two-level coordination model is formulated for a load aggregator (LA) to schedule building air conditioning loads, distributed photovoltaics, and electric vehicles through incentive-based participation, and the resulting optimization problem is solved using an adaptive genetic algorithm. Case studies verify that the proposed strategy can coordinate heterogeneous resources to meet emergency regulation requirements and improve the aggregator–user economic trade-off compared with single-resource participation. The proposed method provides a practical pathway for risk-informed emergency regulation under rainstorm conditions. Full article

This study investigates rainstorm-induced highway subgrade slope collapses in the coastal areas of Southeast China. By integrating the seepage–stress coupled finite element method with the strength reduction method, we simulate the entire process of seepage, deformation, and slope collapse under rainstorm conditions, analyzing the variation in the stability factor. The key findings are as follows: (1) During rainstorms, water infiltration increases soil saturation and pore water pressure, while reducing matrix suction and soil shear strength, leading to soil softening. (2) The toe of the subgrade slope first undergoes plastic deformation under rainstorms, which develops upward, and finally the plastic zone connects completely, causing collapse. The simulated landslide surface is consistent with the actual one, revealing the collapse mechanism of the subgrade slope. Additionally, the simulated displacement at the slope toe when the plastic zone connects provides valuable insights for setting warning thresholds in landslide monitoring. (3) The stability factor of the subgrade slope in the case study decreased from 1.24 before the rainstorm to 0.985 after the rainstorm, indicating a transition from a stable state to an unstable state. (4) Parameter analysis shows that heavy downpour or downpour will cause the case subgrade slope to enter an unstable state. The longer the rainfall duration, the lower the stability factor. Analysis of soil parameters indicates that strength parameters, internal friction angle, and effective cohesion exert a significant influence on slope stability, whereas deformation parameters, elastic modulus, and Poisson’s ratio have a negligible effect. Slope collapse can be timely forecasted by predicting the stability factor. Full article

Global warming is modifying precipitation patterns, and hence increasing the hazards of severe and extended rainstorms. Addressing the gap in integrating economic and environmental assessments into urban stormwater management—a key challenge in urban water resource analysis—this study utilizes the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and SUSTAIN model to identify and evaluate low-impact development (LID) stormwater management strategies, assessing their impacts on runoff volume, peak flow reduction, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and suspended solids (SS) across four planning scenarios under five rainfall recurrence intervals, culminating in a cost–benefit analysis to ascertain the optimal scenario. The reduction rates for COD and SS varied from 41.85% to 87.11% across different scenarios, with Scenario Three (RM03) demonstrating the highest efficacy in pollutant management. (The four labels RM01–RM04 are used throughout the text to represent the four scenarios) Implementing the best plan may result in a reduction of yearly carbon emissions of 189.70 metric tons, with emissions from the operational load of the drainage network and COD pollution treatment potentially decreasing by 2.44% and 2.06%, respectively, indicating an overall annual reduction of 85.46%. This approach not only mitigates urban rainwater and flooding issues but also prevents resource wastage, optimizes resource utilization and benefits, offers a scientific foundation for urban construction and planning, and serves as a reference for sponge city development in other regions. Full article

With the accelerating pace of urbanization, cities are increasingly affected by rainstorm and flood disasters, which pose severe threats to the safety of residents’ lives and property. Existing models are increasingly inadequate in meeting the accuracy requirements for flood simulation in highly urbanized regions. Thus, it is urgent to develop a new method for flood inundation simulation based on high-resolution urban hydrological units. The novelty of the model lies in the novel structure of the high-resolution Urban Hydrological Units model (HRGM), which replaces coarse sub-catchments with a fine-grained network of urban hydrological units. The primary innovation is the node-based coupling strategy, in which the HRGM provides precise overflow hydrographs at drainage inlets as point sources for LISFLOOD-FP, rather than relying on diffuse runoff inputs from larger areas. In this paper, a high-resolution hydraulic model (HRGM) based on urban hydrological units coupled with a 2D hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) was constructed and successfully applied in the Chebeichong watershed. Results show that the model’s simulations align well with observed data, achieving a Nash efficiency coefficient above 0.8 under typical rainfall events. Compared with the SWMM model, the simulation results of HRGM were significantly improved and more consistent with measured results. Taking the rainstorm event on 10 August 2021 as an example, the Nash coefficient increased from 0.7 to 0.85, while the peak flow error decreased markedly from 15.8% to 3.1%. It should be emphasized that urban waterlogging distribution is not continuous but appears as patchy, discontinuous, and fragmented patterns due to the segmentation and blocking effects of roads and buildings in urban areas. The framework presented in this study shows potential for application in other regions requiring flood risk assessment at urban agglomeration scales, offering a valuable reference for advancing flood prediction methodologies and disaster mitigation strategies. Full article

Climate change brings significant challenges to developing countries whose primary livelihood is agriculture. Farmers are directly perceiving and being affected by climate change, and their correct perception of climate change is critical for choosing effective adaptation strategies. The purpose of this paper is to examine farmers’ perceptions of climate change and to analyze the factors that affect the accuracy of their perception. Taking Aohan Banner, Inner Mongolia, China, as a study area, we surveyed 630 farmers and 42 experts in 2021, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate change was measured by comparing it with meteorological data. Farmers and experts then ranked the impact of 12 meteorological disasters. Finally, the factors affecting farmers’ correct perceptions of climate change were analyzed by ordinal logistic regression. We determined the following: (1) Most farmers’ perceptions of temperature is that it is increasing, while their perception of precipitation is that it is decreasing, consistent with the meteorological data and most expert views. (2) Most farmers’ perceptions of wind speed is that it has increased, which is contrary to the meteorological data and most expert views. (3) Farmers’ perceptions of the impact degree of meteorological disasters is drought, then frost, and then rainstorms. This impact degree is different from expert opinions, but the perception of drought is the same, in that drought is considered to be the most severe meteorological disaster affecting farmers. (4) The years of farming, agricultural income, access to information via the Internet and television, and concern about climate change are positively correlated with farmers’ correct perceptions of climate change. Based on our research, we suggest the following: (1) Take measures to deal with drought disasters, such as the rational development and use of water resources, adoption of water-saving measures, and cultivation of drought-resistant and cold-resistant herbs. (2) Improve farmers’ knowledge level through agricultural technology and climate knowledge education. (3) Strengthen the promotion and exchange of climate information. Full article