Search Results (385)

This study investigates changes in Near-Surface Air Temperature (NSAT) over the South African region using weather station data, reanalysis products, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. It is shown that, based on ERA5 reanalysis, the average NSAT increase in the region (45–10° S, 0–50° E) for the period 1940–2023 was 0.11 ± 0.04 °C. Weak multi-decadal changes in NSAT were observed from 1940 to the mid-1970s, followed by a rapid warming trend starting in the mid-1970s. Weather station data generally confirm these results, although they exhibit considerable inter-station variability. An ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models also reproduces these multi-decadal NSAT change characteristics. Specifically, the average model-simulated NSAT values for the region increased by 0.63 ± 0.12 °C between the periods 1940–1969 and 1994–2023. Based on the results of the comparison between weather station observations, reanalysis, and models, we utilize projections of NSAT changes from the analyzed ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models until the end of the 21st century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. These projections indicate that the average NSAT of the South African region will increase between 1994–2023 and 2070–2099 by 0.92 ± 0.36 °C under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, by 1.73 ± 0.44 °C under SSP2-4.5, by 2.52 ± 0.50 °C under SSP3-7.0, and by 3.17 ± 0.68 °C under SSP5-8.5. Between 1994–2023 and 2025–2054, the increase in average NSAT for the studied region, considering inter-model spread, will be 0.49–1.15 °C, depending on the SSP scenario. Furthermore, climate warming in South Africa, both in the next 30 years and by the end of the 21st century, is projected to occur according to all 33 CMIP6 models under all considered SSP scenarios. The main spatial feature of this warming is a more significant increase in NSAT over the landmass of the studied region compared to its surrounding waters, due to the stabilizing role of the ocean. Full article

The environmental impact of milk production, particularly its share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is a topic under investigation in various parts of the world. This paper presents an overview of current knowledge on the carbon footprint (CF) of milk production at the farm level, with a particular focus on technological, environmental and organisational factors affecting emission levels. The analysis is based on a review of, inter alia, 46 peer-reviewed publications and 11 environmental reports, legal acts and databases concerning the CF in different regions and under various production systems. This study identifies the main sources of emissions, including enteric fermentation, manure management, and the production and use of feed and fertiliser. It also demonstrates the significant variability of the CF values, which range, on average, from 0.78 to 3.20 kg CO₂ eq kg⁻¹ of milk, determined by the farm scale, nutritional strategies, local environmental and economic determinants, and the methodology applied. Moreover, this study stresses that higher production efficiency and integrated farm management could reduce the CF per milk unit, with further intensification having, however, diminishing effects. The application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methods is essential for a reliable assessment and comparison of the CF between systems. Ultimately, an effective CF reduction requires a comprehensive approach that combines improved nutritional practices, efficient use of resources, and implementation of technological innovations adjusted to regional and farm-specific determinants. The solutions presented in this paper may serve as guidelines for practitioners and decision-makers with regard to reducing GHG emissions. Full article

Our study aimed to identify the overall and cluster-specific characteristics of Czech beef cattle breeding systems. We used data from an online survey to ascertain farmers’ preferences in breeding objectives. Considering various evaluation criteria and clustering approaches in 41 farms, three beef systems were defined according to herd size, management, marketing, breeding strategies and structures, and farmer age. Breeding values and performance were jointly used as the primary information in all three systems. Cow temperament and calf viability, maternal fertility and longevity, and animal health were found to be the most important traits. Cluster 1 represents pure-breeding farms that specialize in producing breeding animals. Farms in clusters 2 and 3 combined pure- and crossbreeding strategies with production, which was partially (cluster 2) and fully (cluster 3) diversified for all beef categories. Farms also prioritized calving performance and calf growth (clusters 1 and 2) and exterior traits (cluster 3). Production type scores significantly (p < 0.05) differed in clusters 3 (4.12) and 2 (3.25). The proportion of production, functional, and exterior trait categories was 12:37:51, with low variability among clusters (±1 to 2 percentage points). The inter-cluster comparison showed that specific characteristics were compatible with certain breeding goal trait preferences. Full article

Current land surface temperature (LST) products, estimated by sensors on board satellites, show a trade-off between their spatial and temporal resolution. If the spatial resolution is high (i.e., around 100 m), the LST product is delivered every 2 weeks, and for those LST products estimated daily, its spatial resolution is 1 km. Current spatial and temporal resolutions are not adequate for disciplines such as high-precision agriculture, urban decision making, and planning how to mitigate the overheating of cities, for which LST maps at 50–100 m resolution every few days are desirable. This situation has led to the development of disaggregation techniques in order to enhance the spatial resolution of daily LST products. Unfortunately, disaggregation techniques are usually complex since they rely on a number of external inputs and computer resources and are difficult to apply in practice. To our knowledge, there are only two operative downscaled 10 m LST products available to the end user, which are implemented in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) tool. They are the Daily Ten-ST-GEE and LST-downscaling-GEE systems. This study provides a critical benchmark by performing the first direct intercomparison and rigorous in situ validation of these two operative GEE systems. The validation, conducted with reference temperature data from dedicated field campaigns over contrasting agricultural sites in Spain, showed a good correlation of both methods with a R² of 0.74 for Daily Ten-ST-GEE and 0.94 for LST-downscaling-GEE, but the poor results of the first method in a highly heterogeneous site (RMSE of 5.8 K) make the second method the most suitable (RMSE of 3.6 K) for obtaining high-spatiotemporal-resolution LST maps. Full article

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of the hydrological cycle. The eddy covariance data at 40 flux stations in different climatic regions in China were used to evaluate the accuracy of five reanalysis actual ET datasets (ERA5, ERA5-LAND, GLDAS-2.1, MERRA-2, TerraClimate) and four remote sensing estimation ET datasets (ETMonitor, GLEAM4.2a, PML_V2, SiTHv2), which are widely used by the hydrometeorological and climatological communities, in terms of the root mean square error, Pearson correlation coefficient, mean absolute deviation, and Taylor skill score. The results show that remote sensing products outperform reanalysis datasets. Among them, ETMonitor has the highest accuracy, followed by PML_V2 and SiTHv2. TerraClimate and MERRA-2 have the least agreement with the observations at flux sites across nearly all evaluation metrics. All products can capture the seasonality of ET in China, but underestimate ET in northwest China and overestimate ET in southern China throughout the year. We tried to merge three optimal data products (ETMonitor, PML_V2, and SiTHv2) using the triple collocation analysis method to improve the ET estimation, but the results showed that the improvement by the data fusion approach is marginal. The estimation of the multi-year average evapotranspiration during the period from 2001 to 2020 ranges from 397.8 mm/year (GLEAM4.2a) to 504.8 mm/year (ERA5-Land) in China. From 2001 to 2020, annual evapotranspiration in China generally increased, but with varying rates across different products. MERRA-2 showed the largest annual increase rate (3.71 mm/year), while SiTHv2 had the smallest (0.17 mm/year). There are no significant changes in the seasonality of ET by most ET products from 2001 to 2020, except for PML_V2 and SiTHv2, which indicate an increase in seasonality in terms of the evapotranspiration concentration index. This ET intercomparison addresses a key knowledge gap in terrestrial water flux quantification, aiding climate and hydrological research. Full article

Perforation erosion is one of the critical factors influencing the effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing and the productivity of oil and gas wells. This study developed a mathematical model for perforation erosion based on the field experimental data and theoretical analysis. This model comprehensively considers the effects of the rate of change in perforation diameter and the flow coefficient. Through field experiments, the values of the perforation diameter correlation coefficient (α) and the flow coefficient correlation coefficient (β) were determined. The wear behavior of perforations under high-pressure sand-carrying fluid conditions was thoroughly investigated, and the primary factors influencing perforation erosion were systematically analyzed. The results indicate that perforation erosion under high-pressure sand-carrying fluid conditions undergoes two distinct stages: the roundness erosion stage, characterized by a sharp pressure drop (greater than 30%) and the diameter erosion stage, marked by a gradual pressure decline (less than 5%), ultimately forming a trumpet-shaped perforation channel. The study further revealed that larger proppants cause significantly severe erosion than smaller proppants, resulting in 18.19% greater perforation diameter enlargement. In comparison tests, ceramic proppants produced 16.87% more diameter expansion than quartz sand under identical erosion conditions. Innovatively, this study proposes a “limited entry and temporary plugging” synergistic composite process. The timing of temporary plugging and the selection criteria for diverter size were clarified and optimized by determining the critical perforation friction for limited-entry failure based on inter-cluster stress differences. Field applications demonstrate that the optimized approach reduces erosion rates by 35–50%, improves fracture uniformity to over 80%, and increases single-well productivity by 18–25%. This research provides a quantitative basis and practical guidance for optimizing fracturing operation parameters, offering significant insights for enhancing the efficiency and productivity of hydraulic fracturing in oil and gas wells. Full article

Canopy-forming algae play an important role in coastal ecosystems because these species are highly productive and provide habitats and shelter for numerous marine organisms. Sargassum is the main genus of canopy-forming algae in the western North Pacific, but despite the importance of their ecological role, studies on the changes in their distribution are still scarce. Based on the present distribution of four Sargassum species, this study predicted the geographic distribution of future habitats (2030s, 2060s, and 2090s) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The environmental variables predicted from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) had different impacts depending on the species, with current velocity and water temperature showing high contributions in all four species. According to the projections, three Sargassum species (S. horneri, S. macrocarpum, and S. patens) are expected to maintain a higher habitat suitability index (HSI) and suitable habitat (MAXENT ≥ 0.4) through the 2090s under the SSP1-1.9 scenario. However, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the HSI of the species is projected to gradually decrease in the southern coastal waters of the Korean peninsula and increase in the East Sea (North Korea), with these results intensifying under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the other hand, S. piluliferum was found to increase its HSI and habitat under the highest emission scenarios. All Sargassum species are predicted to shift northward from 0.8° N to 3.8° N by the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Although many marine protected areas exist off the coasts of South Korea and Japan, suitable Sargassum habitats were found to be located within protected reserves between 47.1% and 61.2%, depending on the scenario. These findings on Sargassum provide distributional predictions for ecological conservation strategies and provide new evidence for the need for climate change efforts. Full article

Currently, the performance of sea ice thickness (SIT) data retrieved from multisource satellite products in the Arctic seasonal ice zones remains unclear. This study presented the spatiotemporal intercomparison and evaluation of satellite data, including the latest versions of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), CryoSat-2, combined CryoSat-2 and SMOS (CS2SMOS), and Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2), specifically focusing on area with mean SIT below 0.5 m. Five evaluation datasets were used. During 2010–2023, SMOS had the smallest mean SIT, with CryoSat-2 showing the largest mean SIT. During 2018–2023, with the inclusion of ICESat-2, SMOS still showed the smallest mean SIT. CryoSat-2 exhibited the largest mean SIT, followed by ICESat-2, CS2SMOS ranked third. Evaluation results indicated that four satellite products generally underestimated SIT. In two periods, SMOS consistently exhibited the weakest performance, which showed a large gap from what was expected in previous studies. In contrast, CS2SMOS demonstrated the highest alignment with five evaluation datasets during 2010–2023, indicating the best overall performance. During 2018–2023, ICESat-2 exhibited the best overall performance with two evaluation datasets. This study refreshes previous knowledge about SMOS in the seasonal ice zones and contributes to further improvements in SIT retrieval. Full article

The Maltese Islands, situated at the centre of the Mediterranean basin, are recognised as a climate change hotspot. This study utilises projected changes in temperature and precipitation derived from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and analyses outputs from six coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs). Through statistical and spatial analysis, the study demonstrates that climate change will have significant adverse effects on Maltese agriculture. Regardless of the RCP scenario considered, projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature and a decline in precipitation, exacerbating aridity and intensifying heat stress. These changes are expected to reduce soil moisture availability and challenge traditional agricultural practices. The study identifies the Western District as a relatively more favourable area for crop cultivation due to its comparatively lower temperatures, whereas the Northern and South Eastern peripheries are projected to experience more severe heat stress. Adaptation strategies, including the selection of heat-tolerant crop varieties such as Tetyda and Finezja, optimised water management techniques, and intercropping practices, are proposed to enhance agricultural resilience. This study is among the few comprehensive assessments of bioclimatic and physical factors affecting Maltese agriculture and highlights the urgent need for targeted adaptation measures to safeguard food production in the region. Full article

An efficient estimator can reduce both bias and mean squared error to provide more accurate results by using the transformation strategy. In this paper, an enhanced class of ratio–product types of estimators is introduced, which employs the transformation technique by linearly combining two robust measures, the trimean and decile mean, and five non-conventional measures, the range, inter-quartile range, mid-range, quartile average, and quartile deviation, on auxiliary variables with a simple random sampling method to estimate the finite population median. This transformation approach improves efficiency and enables estimators to manage data variability better. Using these estimators, we investigate their bias and mean squared error up to the first order of approximation. A comparison of the proposed estimators and existing methods is conducted through five simulated populations generated through different suitable distributions and three real datasets. By improving the precision and efficiency of median estimation, the proposed estimators ensure accurate and reliable results. Comparing the new estimators to traditional estimators, the findings show superior performance for new estimators in terms of mean squared errors (MSEs). Full article

The study aims to assess future streamflow forecasts in the Godavari basin of India under climate change scenarios. The primary objective of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was to evaluate future streamflow forecasts across different catchments in the Godavari basin, India, with an emphasis on understanding the impacts of climate change. This study employed both conceptual and machine learning models to assess how changing precipitation patterns and temperature variations influence streamflow dynamics. Seven satellite precipitation products CMORPH, Princeton Global Forcing (PGF), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN-CDR) were evaluated in a gridded precipitation evaluation over the Godavari River basin. Results of Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) had a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.806, 0.831, and 56.734 mm/mon, whereas the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission had 0.768, 0.846, and 57.413 mm, respectively. MSWEP had the highest accuracy, the lowest false alarm ratio, and the highest Peirce’s skill score (0.844, 0.571, and 0.462). Correlation and pairwise correlation attribution approaches were used to assess the input parameters, which included a two-day lag of streamflow, maximum and minimum temperatures, and several precipitation datasets (IMD, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, MIROC6, MRI-ESM2-0, and GFDL-ESM4). CMIP6 datasets that had been adjusted for bias were used in the modeling process. R, NSE, RMSE, and R² assessed the model’s effectiveness. RF and M5P performed well when using CMIP6 datasets as input. RF demonstrated adequate performance in testing (0.4 < NSE < 0.50 and 0.5 < R² < 0.6) and extremely good performance in training (0.75 < NSE < 1 and 0.7 < R < 1). Likewise, M5P demonstrated good performance in both training and testing (0.4 < NSE < 0.50 and 0.5 < R² < 0.6). While RF was the best performer for both datasets, Indian Meteorological Department outperformed all CMIP6 datasets in streamflow modeling. Using the Indian Meteorological Department gridded precipitation, RF’s NSE, R, R², and RMSE values during training were 0.95, 0.979, 0.937, and 30.805 m³/s. The test results were 0.681, 0.91, 0.828, and 41.237 m³/s. Additionally, the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model demonstrated consistent performance across both the training and assessment phases, reinforcing the reliability of machine learning approaches in climate-informed hydrological forecasting. This study underscores the significance of incorporating climate change projections into hydrological modeling to enhance water resource management and adaptation strategies in the Godavari basin and similar regions facing climate-induced hydrological shifts. Full article

Asian Mega-Deltas (AMDs) are important food baskets and contribute significantly to global food security. However, these areas are extremely susceptible to the consequences of climate change, such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise, water deficits/surpluses and saltwater intrusion. This study focused on maize crop suitability mapping and yield assessment in two major AMDs: the Ganges Delta, spanning parts of northeast India and Bangladesh, and the Mekong Delta across Vietnam and Cambodia. We investigated the historical climate reanalysis AgERA datasets and climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the periods 2040–2070 and 2070–2100 using PyAEZ-based modeling to estimate maize yields for periods in the near (2050s) and far future (2100s). Province-level yield estimates were validated against statistics reported by the governments of the respective countries. Model performance varied across regions, with R² values ranging from 0.07 to 0.94, MAE from 0.67 t·ha⁻¹ (14.2%) to 1.56 t·ha⁻¹ (20.7%) and RMSE from 0.62 t·ha⁻¹ (14.6%) to 1.74 t·ha⁻¹ (23.1%) in the Ganges Delta, and R² values from 0.23 to 0.85, MAE from 0.37 t·ha⁻¹ (12.8%) to 2.7 t·ha⁻¹ (27.2%) and RMSE from 0.45 t·ha⁻¹ (15.9%) to 1.76 t·ha⁻¹ (30.9%) in the Mekong Delta. The model performed comparatively better in the Indian region of the Ganges Delta than in the Bangladeshi region, where some yield underestimation was observed not accurately capturing the increasing upward trend in reported yields over time. Similarly, yields were underestimated in some provinces of the Mekong Delta since 2008. This may be attributed to improved management practices and the model’s inability to fully capture high-input management systems. There are also limitations related to the downscaling of CMIP6 data; the yield estimated using the downscaled CMIP6 data has small variability under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Despite these limitations, the modeling approach effectively identified vulnerable regions for maize production under future climate scenarios. Additionally, maize crop suitability zones were delineated, providing critical insights for planning and policy design to support climate adaptation in these vulnerable regions. Full article

The leaf area index (LAI) is a crucial parameter for climate change research, agricultural management, and ecosystem monitoring. Despite extensive use of remote sensing data to estimate the LAI, comprehensive evaluations of product consistency and uncertainty remain limited. This study evaluated the uncertainties of four LAI products—GLASS, MCD15A2H, VNP15A2H, and CLMS—across diverse land cover types in the Heihe River Basin through two triple collocation approaches, innovatively. Each approach, respectively, focused on achieving more precise temporal characteristics and spatial characteristics of product uncertainties. The results indicate that all products generally met the Global Climate Observing System’s precision requirement (±0.5) for most biomes during the growing season. When comparing monthly uncertainties within grid cells, GLASS demonstrates superior performance, particularly in grasslands and croplands, whereas CLMS exhibits a slightly weaker ability to represent the spatial distribution of the LAI, especially in regions with high LAI values. When time series data are used to analyze the seasonal uncertainties of the products, MCD15A2H and VNP15A2H show more pronounced distortions, indicating their limited capability in capturing the temporal dynamics of the LAI. Correlation analyses revealed strong product agreement in regions with a low LAI, but discrepancies increased during the growing season and in heterogeneous land covers like croplands. These findings provide critical insights into the reliability of LAI products, offering a robust reference for validating their performance and ensuring their alignment with user requirements across diverse applications. The study highlights the importance of addressing spatial and temporal variability in uncertainties to improve the practical utility of LAI datasets in ecological and climate-related research. Full article

The mechatronic design approach to robotics deploys, inter alia, widely available mechanical design engineering tools that, together with standard production techniques, allow the accurate quantification of the system’s mass properties. While this enables the synthesis of model-based centralized controllers, friction still limits the achievable dynamic performances, as its prediction at the design stage is hampered by complex dependencies on loads, temperature, wear, and lubrication. Further uncertainties affecting mechatronic devices stem from the actuation systems, whose parameters are specified by the manufacturer with relatively loose accuracy. These challenges are addressed here through a method based on MEMS IMUs for the real-time estimation of both friction effects and uncertain actuator parameters. The resulting model, inclusive of the frictionless dynamics, is applied in a closed loop to improve the control performance. An experimental comparison with decentralized and non-adaptive regulators highlights severalfold reductions in tracking errors; the ability to track temperature-dependent friction variations is also shown. From this work, it may be concluded that the use of MEMS sensors, together with identification and adaptive control algorithms, sensibly increases the dynamic performance of robotic systems. The real-time properties of the method also enable future investigations into topics such as MEMS-based diagnostics and predictive maintenance. Full article

Pollutants information can be retrieved from visible (VIS) and ultraviolet (UV) diffuse solar spectra exploiting Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments. In May 2021, the Italian research institute CNR-ISAC acquired and deployed a MAX-DOAS system SkySpec-2D. It is located in the “Giorgio Fea” observatory in San Pietro Capofiume (SPC), in the middle of the Po Valley, where it has constantly acquired zenith and off-axis diffuse solar spectra since the 1st October 2021. This work presents the retrieved tropospheric NO₂ and aerosol extinction profiles (and their columns) derived from the MAX-DOAS measurements using the newly developed DEAP retrieval code. The code has been validated both using synthetic differential Slant Column Densities (dSCDs) from the Fiducial Reference Measurements for Ground-Based DOAS Air-Quality Observations (FRM4DOAS) project and real measured data. For this purpose, DEAP results are compared with the ones obtained with three state-of-the-art retrieval codes. In addition, an inter-comparison with satellite products from Sentinel-5P TROPOMI, for the tropospheric NO₂ Vertical Column Densities (VCDs), and MODIS-MAIAC for the tropospheric Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), is performed. We find a bias of −0.6 × 10¹⁵ molec/cm² with a standard deviation of 1.8 × 10¹⁵ molec/cm² with respect to Sentinel-5P TROPOMI for NO₂ tropospheric VCDs and of 0.04 ± 0.08 for AOD with respect to MODIS-MAIAC data. The retrieved data show that the SPC measurement site is representative of the background pollution conditions of the Po Valley. For this reason, it is a good candidate for satellite validation and scientific studies over the Po Valley. Full article