Search Results (23,668)

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of residential energy systems and microgrids, as reliable short-term predictions enable improved energy scheduling, demand management, and operational planning in distributed energy environments. In this study, one-hour-ahead forecasting of residential PV power generation is investigated using real-world data collected from multiple households within an Irish energy community. Several deep-learning architectures, including long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural networks (CNN), CNN–LSTM hybrid networks, and attention-based LSTM models, are evaluated and compared with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) statistical model. A sliding-window approach is employed to transform the PV time series into a supervised learning problem. To ensure statistical robustness, deep-learning models are evaluated using a multi-run framework, and results are reported as mean ± standard deviation based on MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R² metrics across multiple households. The results indicate that deep-learning models achieve consistently strong forecasting performance, with GRU frequently providing the most reliable predictions across several households. For instance, in House 5, GRU achieved an RMSE of 142.02 ± 1.87 W and an R² of 0.694 ± 0.008, while in Houses 11 and 13 it attained R² values of 0.837 ± 0.002 and 0.835 0.08, respectively. However, performance varied across households, reflecting the influence of data variability and generation patterns on model effectiveness. In comparison, the SARIMA model demonstrated competitive performance and, in certain cases, outperformed deep-learning models. For example, in House 4, it achieved the lowest RMSE of 90.68 W and the highest R² of 0.709. Overall, these findings highlight that while deep-learning models offer greater adaptability and stability, statistical models remain effective for more regular PV generation patterns. Consequently, the study emphasizes the importance of evaluating forecasting models under realistic household-level conditions and demonstrates that both deep-learning and statistical approaches can provide short-term PV forecasting. Full article

Against the background of deepening “dual carbon” goals and the continuously tightening policies of the national carbon market, the carbon asset risks faced by thermal power enterprises have shifted from short-term compliance cost fluctuations to medium- and long-term systemic risks. Managing these risks effectively is essential for ensuring the financial viability of thermal power operations during the low-carbon transition, thereby supporting the long-term sustainability of the energy sector. This study constructs a risk management framework for carbon assets in thermal power enterprises based on the LSTM model and option portfolios. First, the multi-dimensional characteristics of medium- and long-term carbon asset risks are systematically identified at the policy, market, and enterprise levels. Second, a dual-layer LSTM model with Dropout regularization is employed to simulate medium- and long-term carbon prices. The prediction results indicate a moderate upward trend in future carbon prices, with the fluctuation range gradually narrowing. On this basis, a combined hedging strategy of “core call options + auxiliary put options” is designed, capping the maximum procurement cost at 72.63 CNY/ton and covering over 90% of the risk of carbon price increases. Monte Carlo simulations and rolling window backtesting, conducted using operational data from a thermal power enterprise to validate the framework, verify the effectiveness and robustness of the strategy. The study shows that, through the integration of accurate LSTM predictions and proactive option hedging, thermal power enterprises can transform their carbon asset management from passive compliance to active value creation, thereby enhancing their operational sustainability and resilience during the energy transition. Full article

Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for the stability of modern power systems. However, current probabilistic forecasting frameworks often encounter a fundamental conflict between the computational efficiency required for high-dimensional meteorological pattern matching and the physical consistency of the resulting probability distributions. Existing methods frequently fail to maintain the logical monotonicity of quantiles or overlook the fine-grained temporal correlations in massive historical datasets. To address these critical gaps, this research develops a comprehensive framework that synergizes a hierarchical similarity filtering mechanism with a structurally constrained non-crossing quantile regression model. First, the target sample is partitioned into several weather segments, and a new two-stage high-similarity weather pattern matching method is developed to screen multiple sets of historical samples that are highly similar to the target weather pattern. Second, a deep learning model for probabilistic wind power quantile forecasting is proposed, which incorporates historical data augmentation. The model utilizes an attention mechanism to extract the correlation between the target and historical segments, while an improved non-crossing quantile regression model is adopted to ensure the validity of the output quantiles. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through case studies using real-world data from an actual wind farm. Full article

Against the backdrop of accelerating low-carbon transformation in the global energy system and decarbonization in the transportation sector, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles has intensified grid load imbalances and highlighted challenges in integrating intermittent renewable energy generation. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology has emerged as a key solution to these challenges. This paper systematically traces the global evolution of V2G technology from conceptualization to large-scale deployment, focusing on localized practices in China’s scaled V2G applications. It dissects the logic behind policy evolution, identifies three distinct Chinese V2G models—centralized, distributed, and battery-swapping—and validates the practical outcomes of representative pilot projects. Research reveals three core constraints hindering China’s large-scale V2G adoption: the absence of battery capacity degradation management mechanisms, fragmented standardization systems, and rigid market mechanisms. Based on this, the paper proposes recommendations for scaling V2G in China across three dimensions: power battery second-life utilization, standardization system construction, and market mechanism optimization. Furthermore, aligning with the global demand for large-scale V2G implementation, this paper proactively proposes innovative market models. These include establishing a coordinated trading mechanism between green power and V2G, developing a digitally driven distributed trust and transaction system, and exploring financialization and risk hedging models for battery assets. These concepts provide theoretical foundations and decision-making references for achieving high-quality, large-scale V2G applications worldwide. Full article

To explicitly illustrate the relationship between heliostat field optimization and power generation, a coupled model was established in Simulink. By optimizing the geometric layout of the heliostat field, the solar heat collection efficiency can be significantly improved, thereby increasing the thermal input to the system. The optimized heliostat field design can convert solar energy into thermal energy more efficiently and transfer it to the steam generator through the molten salt loop, thereby driving power generation in the Rankine cycle. In this process, the Rankine cycle is responsible for converting the thermal energy supplied by the molten salt loop into mechanical work and ultimately into electrical power output. At the same time, real meteorological data from a commercial heliostat field were introduced, and annual power generation simulations demonstrated that the integrated modeling of the heliostat field, thermal storage, and power block based on actual meteorological boundary conditions and system parameters can effectively reflect the power generation performance of a commercial tower solar thermal power plant. Meanwhile, research on heliostat field optimization should further evolve from identifying general patterns toward parameter design and overall system performance improvement. For molten-salt tower solar thermal power plants, key design variables such as receiver tower height, receiver dimensions, heliostat dimensions, and heliostat field spacing parameters affect not only the annual average optical efficiency of the heliostat field and the thermal power output of the receiver, but also the annual power generation of the entire plant. By integrating SOLARPILOT 1.5.2 and SAM 2025.4.16, the design variables were systematically analyzed to investigate their effects on the annual average optical efficiency of the heliostat field, the number of heliostats, the receiver output power, and the annual power generation, and the reasonable value ranges of the heliostat field parameters were determined accordingly. The established Rankine cycle power block model was then coupled with the parameter optimization results to carry out a secondary optimization of the initial heliostat field. Through the above study, the aim is to realize a shift from single-objective geometric optimization of the heliostat field to comprehensive optimization oriented toward annual plant power generation performance and scenario adaptability, thereby providing a basis for scheme design and parameter selection of molten-salt tower solar thermal power plants. For external validation, the annual generation predicted for the Delingha 50 MW commercial plant was 142.15 GWh, corresponding to a relative deviation of 2.64% from the published design value of 146 GWh. This indicates that the coupled framework can reasonably capture the integrated response of the heliostat field, thermal storage system, and power block at the plant level. The model is therefore suitable for generation-oriented parameter screening and preliminary design of tower molten-salt CSP plants, while detailed component-level transient design still requires higher-fidelity engineering models. Full article

Combining Response Surface Methodology (RSM) with Central Composite Design (CCD) is a powerful statistical approach to optimizing materials in energy storage systems. This study presents an open-source Python (v3.8+) framework that replicates and validates the RSM-based optimization of NiCo₂S₄–graphene supercapattery materials. We validated the framework by replicating a 20-experiment CCD analyzing graphene/NCS ratios, hydrothermal time, and S/Ni molar ratios. Advanced optimization using the Differential Evolution algorithm was integrated to efficiently solve the high-dimensional response surface space. The model explained 97.16% of the variance, and comprehensive diagnostic tests confirmed the assumptions of normality and residual independence. This approach provides an open-source methodology that supports reproducible and scalable data-driven material design and facilitates transparent computational materials science studies. Full article

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is critical for modern power systems, energy management, and grid planning. Yet virtually all existing forecasting models employ stationary activation functions that apply identical nonlinear mappings regardless of temporal context—a fundamental mismatch with real-world load data, which exhibits strongly regime-dependent dynamics such as summer demand peaks, winter heating patterns, and overnight low-load periods. We address this gap by proposing TC-KAN (Time-Conditioned Kolmogorov–Arnold Network), the first forecasting architecture to augment KAN activation functions with position-aware coefficient parameterisation. The core innovation replaces the static polynomial coefficients in standard KAN activations with position-conditioned coefficients produced by a lightweight positional-embedding MLP, providing additional learnable capacity beyond standard KAN while adding negligible parameter overhead. TC-KAN further integrates a dual-pathway processing block—combining depthwise convolution for local temporal pattern extraction with the time-conditioned KAN layer for enhanced nonlinear transformation—within a channel-independent framework with Reversible Instance Normalisation. Experiments were conducted on four standard ETT benchmark datasets and the high-dimensional Weather dataset. TC-KAN achieves superior or competitive accuracy in most configurations while requiring merely 51K parameters—approximately 40% of DLinear and ∼100× fewer than iTransformer. On ETTh2, TC-KAN reduces the mean squared error by up to 61.4% over DLinear, and matches the current state-of-the-art iTransformer on ETTm2 at a fraction of the computational cost. This extreme parameter reduction circumvents the steep memory bottlenecks endemic to massive Transformer models, positioning TC-KAN as a highly practical architecture tailored precisely for resource-constrained edge deployments—such as on-device load forecasting inside smart grid sensors and industrial IoT controllers. Full article

Internal thermal load fluctuations and variations in occupant density affect the performance of Hybrid Geothermal Heat Pump (HGHP) systems. Traditional control strategies cannot provide the rapid adjustments needed to operate efficiently in real time and can be inefficient, leading to increased energy consumption and reduced thermal comfort. A data-driven fuzzy logic control framework is developed in this paper to dynamically adjust the performance of an HGHP system in real time as a function of occupancy and environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and humidity differences). The controller analyzes input data related to real-time outdoor ambient conditions like temperature, humidity and occupied spaces; a real-time flow sensor attached to the occupants of the building (a count of the number of occupants currently in each occupied space); and the coefficient of performance (COP) of the HGHP system, and uses the analysis to generate a “smart” control decision for the following device types: variable speed drive (VSD), fan number, operating modes, system control and valve positions. The controller also controls the overall system. The model was developed and simulated in MATLAB Simulink^®, with realistic system parameters, and validated and calibrated using operational data from an HGHP system at a university, based on operating conditions. The simulation results indicate that our fuzzy controller achieves higher energy efficiency for thermal comfort than traditional thermostat-based controls, with COP improvements ranging from 7.36% to 11.76% and power consumption reductions between 4.13% and 8.55% across various occupancy scenarios. The improved COP also demonstrates the device’s responsiveness and effectiveness, even under frequent changes in occupancy patterns (dynamic occupancy), making it suitable for use in automated climate control systems in modern buildings. Full article

The large-scale grid integration of photovoltaic systems, accompanied by extensive power electronic equipment, exacerbates the risk of sub-synchronous oscillation (SSO) and poses a serious threat to the safe and stable operation of modern power systems. To address the limitation that traditional additional damping controllers rely on accurate mathematical models of the system, this paper applies model-free adaptive control (MFAC) to suppress sub-synchronous oscillation in photovoltaic systems. The proposed method requires no prior identification of the plant model and achieves adaptive control by online estimation of pseudo-partial derivatives using only system input-output data, with parameters optimized by particle swarm optimization. Simulation results show that the proposed controller can effectively shorten the settling time and suppress oscillations However, for oscillations induced by different mechanisms, it still has the limitation of requiring parameter re-optimization. This approach provides a new model-free technical pathway for sub-synchronous oscillation mitigation in grid-connected photovoltaic systems. Full article

This paper addresses the problem of robust identification of gross errors affecting both measurements and network parameters in power system state estimation. The study is conducted within a steady-state framework and focuses on improving bad data identification in the presence of modeling and measurement uncertainties, explicitly accounting for the limited observability of gross errors. Building on an Extended Weighted Least Squares (EWLS) estimator and a theoretically refined eigenvalue-based clustering of dominant error components, a novel Bayesian identification framework is introduced. The proposed Bayesian approach assigns probabilities to competing gross error models, including scenarios involving multiple simultaneous errors, given the observed clusters of dominant errors. This probabilistic formulation enables a systematic and quantitative decision-making process for identifying the most likely sources of gross errors, extending existing deterministic or heuristic approaches. The methodology is evaluated through numerical simulations on the IEEE-14 bus test system, considering several gross error scenarios and significant parameter uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian framework enhances the interpretability and discriminative capability of gross error identification, highlighting its potential for robust bad data identification in power system state estimation. Full article

Accurately determining digging resistance during bucket–soil interaction is crucial for optimizing excavator working devices and power systems. To address measurement difficulties, a numerical simulation model based on the arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) method was established and verified through excavation tests. Through orthogonal experiments, the influence of excavation parameters was studied, and the optimal compound digging trajectory was determined. The results show that increasing the excavation angle from 36° to 48° decreases the X-direction resistance and moment by 39.48% and 38.85%, respectively, though specific energy consumption (SE) increases. Additionally, optimizing arm movement speed reduces the X-direction resistance and moment. While ensuring the bucket load factor is suitable, reducing arm speed and a horizontal soil push during compound excavation effectively decreases SE. Finally, the optimal balance of digging resistance and SE can be achieved with a 300 mm bucket hydraulic cylinder displacement, a 1.5 s interval for initial arm and bucket movements, and an arm-to-bucket speed ratio of 5.5 for hydraulic cylinders. Full article

The large-scale integration of wind energy introduces increased uncertainty and variability in modern power systems, with direct implications for both system design and operation. In addressing similar aspects, energy storage plays a pivotal role as a key source of system flexibility. However, the design and sizing of storage systems remain challenging, especially under conditions of increased uncertainty. In this context, the present study proposes an alternative methodological framework, based on an inverse sizing pathway, i.e., from operations to design. More specifically, the uncertainty embedded in day-ahead forecasting of residual errors, associated with wind power generation and load demand, is currently exploited as a design-relevant signal, while energy storage is treated explicitly as a risk-hedging mechanism. Forecasting residuals spanning a year of operation are incorporated in the problem through probabilistic modeling, leading to the generation of trajectories that correspond to different risk levels and are managed as design scenarios. Regarding the modeling of uncertainties, the study examines two different strategies, namely a global modeling approach and a k-means clustering strategy. Accordingly, by mapping the interplay between storage capacity, uncertainty levels (or risk tolerance), achieved RES shares and system-level costs, we highlight the role of energy storage as a risk-hedging entity rather than merely a means of energy balancing. Our results to that end demonstrate that the achieved shares of RES exhibit increased sensitivity, even within constrained regions of wind power variation, while storage capacity features distinct zones of hedging value and hedging saturation effects emerging beyond certain storage levels. Moreover, evaluation of the two modeling strategies reflects on their complementary character, with the global modeling approach ensuring continuity and the clustering strategy capturing local asymmetries within different operational regimes. In conclusion, the methodology presented in this study bridges the gap between operational forecasting and long-term system design, offering a risk-aware framework for storage sizing, grounded in actual operational signals rather than relying on stationary historical data and relevant scenarios. Full article

The use of millimeter-wave spectrum in fifth-generation (5G) systems is increasing the need for accurate prediction of received power and coverage in real deployment scenarios. In this context, ray tracing (RT) is a promising approach for site-specific analysis, although its reliability depends on how accurately different tools reproduce measurements in complex urban environments. This work presents a comparative assessment at 27 GHz of three RT tools: in-house Exact tool based on Vertical Plane Launching (VPL), Matlab 5G and open-source Sionna RT based on Shooting and Bouncing Rays (SBR). The comparison relies on a large outdoor walk-test campaign, including about 14,725 measurement points collected in a real urban area around a 27 GHz mMIMO base station, using real operator-provided antenna radiation patterns. Measured and simulated power levels are compared using statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and a planning-oriented coverage-rate metric. The results show a reasonable agreement between simulations and measurements, with RMSE and MAE values around 10–12 dB, highlighting tool-specific behaviors related to boundary effects, interaction modeling, and high-power overestimation. This work confirms that RT is a flexible support for 5G preliminary network design, reducing the need for extensive drive tests. Full article

Cloud-based AI systems increasingly rely on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) to handle complex, knowledge-intensive queries. However, query decomposition for multi-hop retrieval—traditionally powered by large language models (LLMs)—incurs significant latency and cost, rendering it impractical for large-scale, cost-sensitive cloud deployments. We propose ToR-Lite, a lightweight, generative LLM-free semantic query decomposition framework designed to enhance multi-hop retrieval efficiency in cloud-based AI systems. ToR-Lite employs a novel Word-Window Splitting algorithm that detects semantic breakpoints via sliding window embeddings, effectively decomposing complex queries without expensive LLM inference. Experiments on the MultiHop-RAG benchmark (n = 2255) demonstrate that ToR-Lite achieves +6.03 pp Hits@10 and +0.89 pp Exact Match improvements over the Baseline, while operating 3.18 times faster than LLM-based Adaptive ToR. Retrieval performance correlates monotonically with decomposition granularity: three sub-query decompositions (#Dq = 3) yields a +7.00 pp Hits@10 improvement, confirming that semantic granularity is a key driver of retrieval performance. Comparison with rule-based Baselines confirms that these gains derive from the precision of semantic boundary detection rather than decomposition quantity alone. ToR-Lite delivers nearly twice the retrieval improvement per unit of computational cost, offering a practical and cost-effective solution for latency-sensitive cloud AI deployments. Full article

This paper presents a real-time digital twin (DT) of the power conversion system used in offshore wind applications. The proposed DT is exploited to identify key electrical parameters of both the permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) and the three-phase boost rectifier and has been developed with a Condition Monitoring (CM)-oriented approach. A Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network is adopted as a real-time digital model (RTDM) to estimate online the PMSG phase resistance and synchronous inductance, as well as the DC-link capacitance at the rectifier output. The network is trained in MATLAB using data generated by a Typhoon HIL 606 emulator, covering both balanced and unbalanced operating conditions and a wide range of parameter variations. The trained GRU is then deployed on the control board and implemented in LabVIEW Real-Time for embedded execution. Experimental tests on a PMSG-based generating unit confirm the effectiveness of the proposed RTDM, achieving low root-mean-square and mean percentage errors in parameter estimation. The results demonstrate that the enhanced neural real-time DT is a promising tool for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of power conversion systems in offshore wind applications. Full article