Search Results (131)

As a form of long-term asset allocation, pension fund investment necessitates accurate estimation of both asset returns and associated risks over extended time horizons. However, long-term asset returns are significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, whereas variance-based risk measures cannot account for the directional nature of deviations from expected returns. To address these issues, we propose a novel CVaR-based Black–Litterman model incorporating macroeconomic cycle views (CVaR-BL-MCV) for optimal asset allocation of pension funds. This approach integrates macroeconomic cycle dynamics to quantify their impact on asset returns and utilizes Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a coherent measure of downside risk. We employ a Markov-switching model to identify and forecast the phases of economic and monetary cycles. By analyzing the economic cycle with PMI and CPI, economic conditions are categorized into three distinct phases: stable, transitional, and overheating. Similarly, by analyzing the monetary cycle with M2 and SHIBOR, monetary conditions are classified into expansionary and contractionary phases. Based on historical asset return data across these cycles, view matrices are constructed for each cycle state. CVaR is used as the risk measure, and the posterior distribution of the Black–Litterman (BL) model is derived via generalized least squares (GLS), thereby extending the traditional BL framework to a CVaR-based approach. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CVaR-BL-MCV model outperforms the benchmark models. When the risk aversion coefficient is 1, 1.5, and 3, the Sharpe ratio of pension asset allocation using the CVaR-BL-MCV model is 21.7%, 18.4%, and 20.5% higher than that of the benchmark models, respectively. Moreover, the BL model incorporating CVaR improves the Sharpe ratio of pension asset allocation by an average of 19.7%, while the BL model with MCV achieves an average improvement of 14.4%. Full article

Funded pensions have become a key focus in strategies to ensure supplementary income during retirement. This paper explores two distinct approaches for estimating replacement rates: a deep learning model and a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Using synthetic datasets for training, the deep learning model delivered accurate replacement rate predictions when benchmarked against exact solutions. On the other hand, the FIS approach, which leverages expert insights and practical experience, produced encouraging results but revealed opportunities for refining the definitions of intervals and linguistic categories. To bridge the strengths of both approaches, we introduce a conceptual integration using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), providing a multi-criteria decision-support framework that combines predictive accuracy from neural networks with the interpretability of fuzzy systems. The findings emphasize the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) methods, including neural networks and fuzzy logic, in advancing pension planning. While these techniques remain underutilized in this area, they hold significant promise for developing decision-support systems, particularly in big data contexts. Such systems can offer initial replacement rate estimates, serving as valuable inputs for experts during the decision-making process. Additionally, the paper suggests future research into multi-criteria decision analysis to improve decision-making within multi-pillar pension frameworks. Full article

This paper develops a dynamic asset allocation strategy for defined contribution pension funds using a stochastic control framework under the Heston stochastic volatility model. By solving the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman partial differential equation, we derive optimal equity allocations that adapt to changing market volatility and investor risk aversion using a constant relative risk aversion utility function (parameter $\gamma$). The strategy increases equity exposure during stable periods and reduces it during volatile regimes, capturing both myopic and intertemporal hedging demands. We test the model using historical U.S. data from 2006 to 2025 and benchmark its performance against a traditional static 60/40 stock–bond portfolio, as well as rule-based strategies such as volatility targeting and constant proportion portfolio insurance. Our results show that with moderate risk aversion, the dynamic strategy achieves long-term wealth comparable to the 60/40 benchmark while substantially reducing drawdown risk. As risk aversion increases, drawdown risk is further reduced and risk-adjusted returns remain competitive. Although higher aversion yields lower final wealth, certainty-equivalent returns are highest at moderate aversion levels. These results demonstrate that volatility responsive dynamic policies grounded in realistic stochastic volatility modeling can substantially enhance downside protection and risk-adjusted utility, especially for long-horizon, risk-averse pension participants. Full article

Air pollution risk significantly impacts social and economic systems. Given the critical role of the pension system in socioeconomic stability, it is crucial to explore the impact of air pollution on pension contributions. Utilizing panel data from eight Chinese provinces between 2014 and 2024, this study quantifies the impact of Particulate Matter (PM_2.5) on pension contributions and explores its nonlinear and lagged effects through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (FRDD) coupled with double machine learning (DML) techniques. Through the application of the FRDD, we found that pension contributions are significantly reduced when the PM_2.5 concentration exceeds the standard annual threshold of 35 $\mu g/m^3$, and the effects differ between the Urban Employees Basic Pension Insurance (UEBPI) and the Urban and Rural Residents’ Pension Scheme (URRPS). Further, the DML approach validated these findings and suggested that a complex hysteresis response mechanism exists in relation to air pollution. Additionally, it indicated that when PM_2.5 concentrations do not exceed the threshold, this similarly has a negative effect on pension contributions. These findings emphasize the need for policymakers and pension fund managers to integrate environmental considerations into pension sustainability strategies to increase resilience to ongoing environmental risks. Full article

This article presents a transparent and replicable framework to assess the net worth of public pension systems within the broader context of fiscal sustainability and public sector balance sheets. Using Spain as a case study, it transforms Eurostat’s Table 29 data into an actuarial balance sheet and income statement, applying the Swedish open group (SOG) approach. The analysis shows that Spain’s pension system faces a significant funding shortfall, with assets covering only 72% of its liabilities. The proposed method enhances fiscal transparency and provides policymakers with a practical tool to evaluate and improve long-term pension sustainability across different institutional contexts. Full article

This paper proposes a mathematical model based on modified geometric progressions for supplementary retirement planning. Unlike traditional annuity models that assume fixed contributions and withdrawals, the proposed method incorporates inflation-indexed contributions and withdrawals. This allows for accurate simulations aligned with real-world financial behavior. The model has practical applicability in pension fund policy, personal financial planning tools, and governmental simulations. A case study is developed, demonstrating that with a 3% annual geometric annuity and a 0.5% monthly interest rate, an initial deposit of R$ 767.67 over 25 years results in a monthly retirement income of R$ 3049.19 for 30 years, with preserved purchasing power. The model offers a practical and realistic tool for individual retirement planning and paves the way for future applications in both public and private pension systems. Full article

This study aimed to analyze whether formal managers’ qualifications explain the Brazilian pension funds’ disclosure level. It started from the assumption of information asymmetry between stakeholders. We also recognize that the problems related to asymmetry in companies participating in the capital market, commonly pointed out in the literature, would not behave in the same way in pension funds. Other factors explain the disclosure in these organizations, like the qualification of managers. We calculated the disclosure level for each of the 209 Brazilian pension funds that made up the sample. We analyzed the dates using multiple linear and logistic regression as a robustness test. The results indicated that the formal qualification of managers, characterized by master’s and or doctoral degrees, has a positive relationship with the level of disclosure of pension funds, indicating that the greater the formal qualification of the manager, the greater the level of disclosure. Thus, this study shows insights that the explanations about company disclosure given in the literature, especially its effect on market value, are not necessarily the same in pension funds, which are explained by other factors, such as the qualification of managers. The results can contribute to regulatory bodies to formulate new rules that favor the capability of managers, in addition to identifying the information demanded by stakeholders, allowing for an increase in the level of disclosure and a reduction in information asymmetry, as well as the improvement of governance practices. Full article

Financial stability analysis requires volatility modeling, especially in emerging nations where pension fund systems are very vulnerable to macrofinancial risks. In order to examine the volatility dynamics of Romania’s private pension system, this study uses daily net asset value (NAV) data from 2012 to 2024 to evaluate four GARCH-type models: standard GARCH (sGARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH), Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle GARCH (GJR-GARCH), and component GARCH (C-GARCH). The analysis includes domestic and international equity indices (BET, STOXX), government bond yields (ROMGB 10Y, ROMANI 5Y), short-term interbank rates (ROBOR ON), and exchange rate fluctuations (RON/EUR). Current findings indicate that EGARCH captures asymmetric fluctuations in pension fund performance, where positive shocks generate larger increases in volatility than negative ones, highlighting an atypical asymmetry pattern. Furthermore, the stabilizing effects of government bonds are overshadowed by stock market behavior, which becomes the primary driver of risk. Fluctuations in exchange rates further increase volatility, especially in markets vulnerable to external disturbances. The findings offer empirical evidence for the necessity of more cautious risk management approaches and highlight the importance of regulatory oversight in maintaining market confidence. The study underscores the importance of customized allocation frameworks that reduce vulnerability to disruptive events while maintaining prospects for sustained growth. This new dataset contributes to enhancing the comprehension of pension fund volatility within the context of emerging markets. These insights can assist managers and policymakers seeking to fortify retirement outcomes. Full article

Pension funds’ growth highlights the need to emphasize fiduciary duty and investment sustainability, considering the current and future participants’ interests (priority stakeholders) and systemic risk reduction (environmental, social, economic, and governance effects). Therefore, this study builds sustainability indicators based on the interests of pension fund stakeholders. The methodology comprised five stages: the first consisted of analyzing Annual Information Reports to create a preliminary list of indicators; the second involved examining specific legislation on pension fund disclosure and identifying mandatory information; the third involved submitting the updated list to experts; and the fourth involved submitting it to priority stakeholders for evaluation and validation. After its updates, the indicators list was evaluated using Principal Component Analysis. All these stages allowed for the triangulation of information and the creation of a final list containing 48 sustainability indicators for pension funds, with information requested by priority stakeholders. This allows regulators to adjust disclosure rules, including those required by stakeholders and good governance practices. It also allows pension funds to identify the indicators required by stakeholders, reducing information asymmetry. The adoption of the list of indicators would promote trust, legitimacy, and sustainability for pension funds. Full article

Pension benefit adjustment is an effective measure to ensure the basic living standards of retirees, improve people’s livelihood, and maintain social harmony and stability. This study uses the entropy weight TOPSIS method to measure and evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of pension benefit adjustment policy in 31 provinces in China from three dimensions of sustainability, guarantee, and fairness. The Dagum Gini coefficient is used to analyze the pension benefit adjustment effects in China’s four major regions and the sources of differences among the three subsystems. Finally, the dynamic evolution of the effect of pension benefit adjustment was analyzed using kernel density estimation. The following conclusions were achieved: (1) Sustainability indicator scores are declining, while guarantee and fairness indicator scores are both on the rise, indicating that provinces are placing greater emphasis on fairness and ensuring the basic living standards of retirees in pension benefit adjustments; (2) The overall variation in the impact of pension benefit adjustments is decreasing, with regional disparities being the primary source of overall variance; (3) Pension benefits in the eastern region have increased significantly, while there are significant variations among provinces in the central and western regions. The adjustment effect for pension benefits in the northeastern region is poor and requires further enhancement. These findings provide valuable policy basis for achieving the sustainability, guarantee, and fairness of pension funds. Full article

The purpose of this article was to examine the level and variability of budgetary expenditures directed to the Agricultural Social Insurance Fund (ASIF) in Poland in the form of subsidies to the Farmers’ Pension Fund in the period 2004–2024, i.e., after Poland’s accession to the European Union (EU). The aim of the study was also to determine the share of subsidies to the farmers’ social insurance fund in the total expenditures of the Polish agricultural budget, as well as the relationship of ASIF expenditures to state budget expenditures and GDP dynamics. The authors attempted to estimate the trend function for these time series and the degree of fit of the equations describing them. The formation of the nominal and real level of budget expenditures on the ASIF in 2004–2024 was evaluated. It was assumed that spending on the ASIF is an element of agricultural policy, realising its redistributive and social objectives, but indirectly also pro-development objectives by supporting generational change in agriculture. The research showed that the real level of spending on ASIF declined during Poland’s EU membership, as did the share of this spending in the total agricultural budget. The subsidy to the social security system also did not follow the changes in GDP and state budget expenditure proportionally, showing much less dynamism over the period studied. This means that budget support for farmers’ social security is losing its importance as an instrument of agricultural policy. It has been shown that the economic and social components of agricultural expenditure have not grown in harmony. The changes in the level of spending on the ASIF in the period 2004–2024 were also analysed in relation to demographic changes, i.e., the number of farmers insured in the ASIF and recipients of agricultural pensions. It has been shown that, despite a significant decrease in the number of farmers receiving pensions from the ASIF, there remains a large disparity between the average pension benefits of farmers and those of the general social insurance system (Social Insurance Institution—SII). The reduction in this disparity is not served by a real reduction in subsidies to the ASIF. Full article

The optimal management of pension funds has become increasingly critical. As the population ages, the effective management of pension funds is essential for the social security system. The primary goal of this paper is to develop a deterministic nonlinear multi-objective optimization model to determine the contribution rates in a defined contribution pension system. The computational optimization model was implemented using the LINGO language. In the first part of this study, three main scenarios were analyzed considering different inflation rates, focusing on the objective function that minimizes the salary percentages workers pay when saving for a specified period while aiming to achieve a certain number of coverage years. The first scenario assumes that the worker desires an economic quality equivalent to their working life, showing that contribution rates range from 10% to 30% (with a 3% inflation rate). The second scenario posits that the worker only requires 80% of their equivalent salary during retirement, resulting in contribution rates directly proportional to those in scenario 1 (using the same parameters). The third scenario speculates that inflation may reach 7% per year, causing contribution rates to rise significantly from 40% to 80%. Finally, the Pareto front illustrates the trade-off between the contribution rate and the coverage years based on scenario 1 parameters. Full article

This paper introduces a tontine-like annuity fund designed to provide lifelong income to its participants. Initially, each member contributes a lump-sum payment into a trust fund as a joining premium. Participants then receive benefits over time, based on their survival. As members pass away, their share of payouts is redistributed among the survivors, resulting in increased payouts for those remaining. Differing from traditional tontines, which assume a uniform mortality risk, this fund accommodates participants of various ages and allows new members to join during its operation. To accommodate these features, the authors utilize age-structured models (ASMs) to determine fair premiums for new entrants and to analyze the dynamics of benefit distribution. The core objective of this paper is to develop a pension model using ASMs, recognizing its significant potential for adaptation and expansion. The primary mathematical approach employed is the Maximum Principle from optimal control theory, which helps in deriving explicit solutions for the optimal subsidy strategy. Through numerical examples and detailed illustrations, the paper demonstrates that participants who remain in the cohort longer receive greater subsidies. Additionally, the study finds that adverse shocks lead to a smaller population and thus fewer subsidies. Conversely, starting with a larger initial cohort population tends to increase the overall population, resulting in more subsidies. However, higher costs associated with subsidies lead to their reduction. Our analysis reveals the complex interplay of factors influencing the sustainability and effectiveness of the proposed annuity model. Full article

As a new driving force for economic growth, the digital economy has had a profound impact on the labor market. While the existing research has explored the role of the digital economy in job substitution, creation, and polarization effects, the research on the impact on the social insurance fund income is relatively scarce. In view of this, based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020, this paper analyzes the effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the pension income by using the moderated chain intermediary model and random forest regression. The results show that: (1) the employment scale, labor income, industrial structure, and government intervention are the important factors affecting the income of urban pension insurance; (2) the development of the digital economy has a negative impact on the income of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees, and the chain intermediary effect that indirectly affects the employment scale and labor income through promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure has a negative impact on the income of the pension insurance fund. The employment scale and employment income of the industries with high and low substitution rates have a significant impact; (3) government intervention can regulate the negative impact of the digital economy development on the pension fund income. Furthermore, taking the transformation and reform of social security collection and payment institutions in July 2018 as an opportunity, the analysis using the event study method found that the average level of the pension income in the regions where the tax department was fully responsible increased significantly compared with the regions where the social security department collected it. Therefore, in order to maintain the sustainability of the pension fund income and effectively prevent the problem of old-age poverty caused by the “silver wave” and the lack of protection of workers’ rights and interests, institutional innovation should be promoted, the current tax policy should be adjusted, and the inclusiveness and flexibility of the pension security system should be improved. Digital technology should be used to improve the government’s intervention capacity and management level, and promote the positive interaction between the digital economy and the pension insurance system. Full article

The world’s 300 largest pension funds manage assets for more than USD 21 trillion. A strict orientation to environmental, social, and good governance (ESG) in the investment portfolio of pension funds can play a key role in triggering the economy toward a sustainable transition. Can responsible pension plans be an attractive investment opportunity for young people? Since the performance of pension funds depends on the demographic characteristics of investors, other than the financial results of investment portfolios, this study aimed to test the convenience of ESG-oriented pension plans for young contributors aged 20–29 with different risk propensities and attitudes towards sustainability. The analysis was started using accurate data provided by an Italian pension fund, observed from 2012 to 2022. The methods applied were a Monte Carlo simulation of the individual actuarial balances, the expected utility, and the willingness to pay. The results show that ESG-oriented pension funds are convenient for young people who invest in riskier lines. Still, it is sufficient for a light green preference to persuade young contributors to invest in ESG-oriented funds and balanced lines. The results of the study can support pension fund managers in defining and offering appropriate ESG lines suitable for younger investors. Full article