Search Results (24)

As China commits to reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, accurately predicting the provincial carbon peak year is vital for designing effective, region-specific policies. This study proposes an integrated approach based on extended STIRPAT and GA-BiLSTM models to predict China’s provincial carbon peak year. First, based on panel data across 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2023, we construct a multidimensional indicator system that encompasses socioeconomic factors, energy consumption dynamics, and technological innovation using the extended STIRPAT model, which explains 87.42% of the variation in carbon emissions. Second, to improve prediction accuracy, a hybrid model combining GA-optimized BiLSTM networks is proposed, capturing temporal dynamics and optimizing parameters to address issues like overfitting. The GA-BiLSTM model achieves an R² of 0.9415, significantly outperforming benchmark models with lower error metrics. Third, based on the model constructed above, the peak years are projected for baseline, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios. In the low-carbon scenario, 19 provinces are projected to peak before 2030, which is 8 more than in the baseline scenario. Meanwhile, under the high-carbon scenario, some provinces such as Jiangsu and Hebei may fail to peak by 2040. Finally, based on the predicted carbon peak year, provinces are categorized into four pathways—early, recent, later, and non-peaking—to provide targeted policy recommendations. This integrated framework significantly enhances prediction precision and captures regional disparities, enabling tailored decarbonization strategies that support China’s dual carbon goals of balancing economic growth with environmental protection. The approach provides critical insights for region-specific low-carbon transitions and advances sustainable climate policy modeling. Full article

The Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China presents a critical conflict between industrial development and ecological conservation. It functions as a key hub for water management, energy production, and shipping, while also serving as a vital zone for ecological and environmental protection. Focusing on Zigui County, this study developed a 16-indicator evaluation system integrating geological, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. It utilized the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), coefficient of variation (CV), and the Real-Coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm-Projection Pursuit (RAGA-PP) model for evaluation, the latter of which optimizes the projection direction and utilizes PP to transform high-dimensional data into a low-dimensional space, thereby obtaining the values of the projection indices. The findings indicate the following: (1) The RAGA-PP model outperforms conventional AHP-CV methods in assessing Zigui County’s eco-geological environment, showing superior accuracy (higher Moran’s I) and spatial consistency. (2) Hotspot analysis confirms these results, revealing distinct spatial patterns. (3) From 2000 to 2020, “bad” quality areas decreased from 17.31% to 12.33%, while “moderate” or “better” zones expanded. (4) This improvement reflects favorable natural conditions and reduced human impacts. These trends underscore the effectiveness of China’s ecological civilization policies, which have prioritized sustainable development through targeted environmental governance, afforestation initiatives, and stringent regulations on industrial activities. Full article

Heilongjiang Province, as China’s principal gateway for Russian timber imports, faces structural inefficiencies in the localization of wood-processing enterprises—characterized by ecological sensitivity, resource–industry mismatches, and uneven spatial distribution. To address these challenges, this study proposes a two-stage site selection framework that integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with an enhanced Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). The model aims to reconcile ecological protection with industrial efficiency by identifying optimal facility locations that minimize environmental impact, reduce construction and logistics costs, and enhance service coverage. Using spatially resolved multi-source datasets—including forest resource distribution, transportation networks, ecological redlines, and socioeconomic indicators—the GIS-based suitability analysis (Stage I) identified 16 candidate zones. Subsequently, a multi-objective optimization model (Stage II) was applied to minimize carbon intensity and cost while maximizing service accessibility. The improved NSGA-II algorithm achieved convergence within 700 iterations, generating 124 Pareto-optimal solutions and enabling a 23.7% reduction in transport-related CO₂ emissions. Beyond carbon mitigation, the model spatializes policy constraints and economic trade-offs into actionable infrastructure plans, contributing to regional sustainability goals and transboundary industrial coordination with Russia. It further demonstrates methodological generalizability for siting logistics-intensive and policy-sensitive facilities in other forestry-based economies. While the model does not yet account for temporal dynamics or agent behaviors, it provides a robust foundation for informed planning under China’s dual-carbon strategy and offers replicable insights for the global forest products supply chain. Full article

Land resources are fundamental to regional economic development and ecological protection. As a critical tool for the scientific allocation of land resources, land suitability evaluation plays a pivotal role in achieving sustainable development goals. This study integrates the MaxEnt model with regional planning to conduct a multi-period evaluation of the construction land suitability in the Turpan–Hami region, aiming to elucidate the distribution patterns of suitability and their driving mechanisms across different historical periods. By synthesizing natural geographic and socioeconomic data, a comprehensive suitability evaluation framework was developed, enabling a multi-temporal analysis of construction land suitability from 2000 to 2023. The results revealed a clear trend of optimization in construction land suitability within the Turpan–Hami region, characterized by the continuous expansion of highly suitable areas and a significant reduction in unsuitable areas, with the regional suitability distribution becoming increasingly balanced over time. The population density, GDP, and road density were identified as the primary drivers of suitability distribution, with the population density exerting the most substantial influence. Among the natural environmental factors, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imposed significant constraints on the land suitability, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas. This study innovatively applied the MaxEnt model to the evaluation of construction land suitability, integrating it with regional planning to comprehensively assess the spatial distribution and dynamic changes in land suitability in the Turpan–Hami region. Furthermore, this research aligns closely with policy frameworks, fully considering the impacts of ecological and agricultural protection constraints within regional planning policies on the suitability distribution, and it explores optimized land use strategies under policy guidance. The findings provide a robust scientific foundation for the efficient allocation of land resources and the enhancement of ecological protection in the Turpan–Hami region. Full article

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are a central issue in the conflict between economic development and environmental protection. Optimizing land use to balance development and conservation plays a crucial role in reducing carbon emissions. The transfer of development rights (TDR), as an emerging market-based policy tool, can effectively achieve a “win-win” situation between development and conservation. However, its empirical impact on carbon emission reduction remains insufficiently explored. This study focuses on the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China. It constructs four scenarios—nature, development, protection, and TDR—using the PLUS model. These scenarios are combined with 2030 projections of energy consumption and socio-economic development generated by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and evaluated using the carbon emission factor method. The results indicate that both urban–rural and cross-regional transfers of construction land rights positively contribute to reducing carbon emissions, and their combination yields the most significant benefits. The TDR scenario can protect the ecological environment while effectively controlling the scale of construction space. With a carbon emission level of 77.9 million tonnes, it serves as a rational choice for regional land use. This study contributes to advancing both the theory and practice of low-carbon land use and plays a significant role in optimizing land resource allocation and reducing carbon emissions. Full article

REDD+ is a UN-backed framework aimed at reducing carbon emissions in developing countries through sustainable forest management and the protection and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. These are key goals for the international community to achieve climate change mitigation through forestry. REDD+ programs deliver carbon, environmentally based, and social benefits through incentives provided to local societies. This study focuses on a quantitative assessment of the REDD+ framework from the perspective of localized socio-economic shifts. The drivers–pressures–state–impact and partial least squares–structural equation models were employed to evaluate impacts of socio-economic change on multiple REDD+ benefits and their influential factors in the tropical rainforests of Xishuangbanna, China. The results revealed that land-use changes form essential and complex links between socio-economic and eco-environmental changes. Socio-economic shifts in the recent twenty years in Xishuangbanna impacted carbon emissions mainly through land-use change (impact coefficient = 0.909), which was nearly three times the impact of land-use change on environmental degradation (0.322) and more than twice its impact on social benefits (0.363). Such unbalanced impacts suggest a need to optimize local policies through contextualized measures in a way that effectively addresses livelihood improvements, enhancing carbon storage and environmental services to achieve REDD+ targets in the tropical rainforests of China. Full article

Analyzing and monitoring land use/cover (LULC) changes is critical for improving regional ecosystem service functions and developing strategies for long-term socio-economic development. Exploring future changes in land use and carbon storage under different scenarios is important for optimizing regional ecosystem service functions and formulating sustainable socio-economic development policies. In the present work, we evaluate LULC changes and carbon storage changes in the Rapid Urbanization Area (RUA) of Weihai City from 2000 to 2020 using satellite images. Using five Landsat images, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the LULC changes were measured, using a supervised classification algorithm of the neural net and the intensity analysis techniques in GIS. The Landsat images from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were categorized into five main land use categories in the researched region: urban areas, woodlands, cultivated areas, bare soil, and water bodies. Our results reveal that urban areas, woodlands, and bare soil increased by about 129.63 km² (13.29%), 53.07 km² (5.44%), and 40.99 km² (4.2%) from 2000 to 2020, respectively. On the contrary, the cultivated areas decreased by 218.35 km² (22.36%) and the water bodies decreased by 5.44 km² (0.56%). To summarize, the conversion of cultivated areas into urban areas has been the most significant transformation in the RUA during the period 2000–2020. Regarding carbon storage, in the study area, it decreased by 14.92 × 10⁴ t from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, according to the prediction of the LULC changes for 2030 by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, the cultivated areas and carbon storage will continue to decline. The slow increase in woodland brings good ecological benefits. But the sharp reduction in the per capita cultivated areas will bring environmental and socio-economic problems to the RUA. Therefore, it is time to strengthen the implementation of cultivated area protection policy. Monitoring and managing LULC changes are critical for establishing relationships between policy choices, regulatory measures, and future LULC operations, especially because many potential concerns remain in the RUA territories. Full article

The sustainable utilization of cultivated land is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring food security and achieving sustainable socioeconomic development. This study employed a dataset to evaluate sustainable land use and utilized a combination of multi-factor comprehensive evaluation models, structural equation modeling, geographically weighted regression, and Pearson correlation analysis to systematically investigate the overall level, spatial differentiation characteristics, and driving mechanisms of sustainable cultivated land utilization in the Tarim River Basin. Additionally, we compared and tested three spatial interpolation methods using high-resolution data to address the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) and enhance the quality of spatial predictions for cultivated land utilization, ultimately identifying inverse distance weighting (IDW) as the optimal method. The results indicate the following: (1) The level of sustainable cultivated land utilization is moderately high, with an average index of 0.581, exhibiting a “U-shaped” trend from the upper to lower reaches of the Tarim River Basin. The highest levels are found in the Kashgar River–Yarkant River Basin, followed by the Hotan River Basin and the Kaidu–Peacock River Basin, while the mainstream area has the lowest levels. (2) The relationships among various cultivated land environmental systems and sustainability demonstrate distinct response characteristics and spatial differentiation patterns. Cultivated land use and management exert the most significant influence on sustainability, followed by soil quality and water resource systems, with climatic factors having the least impact. The effects of each system reveal inverted “U”, inverted “N”, “U”, and “W” patterns from the lower reaches to the upper reaches, respectively. (3) As the complexity of interactions and integrative mechanisms within the regional cultivated land system increases, the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system also rise, resulting in lower levels of sustainable utilization. (4) Based on the current challenges facing the cultivated land environmental system and the primary mechanisms influencing its sustainability, we propose regulatory measures focused on “suitable consolidation”, “suitable resting”, and “suitable planting”. These findings provide valuable insights for formulating differentiated land protection strategies, policies, and spatial planning initiatives. Full article

The reconstruction of land spatial planning and the increasing severity of carbon emissions pose significant challenges to carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategies. To establish low-carbon and sustainable agricultural spatial planning while achieving dual carbon strategy goals, it is essential to accurately analyze the mechanisms of agricultural spatial transfer and their carbon emission effects, as well as the key factors influencing carbon emissions from agricultural spatial transfer. Therefore, this study, based on land use remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020, proposes a carbon emission accounting system for agricultural space transfer. The carbon emission total from agricultural space transfer in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration over the 20-year period is calculated using the carbon emission coefficient method. Additionally, the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors are analyzed using the standard deviation ellipse method and the geographical detector model. The results indicate that: (1) The agricultural space in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration has increased, with a reduction in living space and an expansion of production space. Among land type conversions, the conversion between cultivated land and forest land has been the most intense. (2) The conversion of agricultural space to grassland and built-up land has been the primary source of net carbon emissions. The carbon emission center has shown a migration path characterized by “eastward movement and southward progression,” with a high-north to low-south distribution pattern. Significant carbon emission differences were observed at different spatial scales. (3) Natural environmental factors dominate the carbon emissions from agricultural space transfer, while socioeconomic and policy factors act as driving forces. Elevation is the primary factor influencing carbon emissions from agricultural space transfer. Interactions between factors generally exhibit nonlinear enhancement, with the interaction between elevation, annual precipitation, and industrial structure showing a strong explanatory power. Notably, the interactions between elevation, average annual precipitation, and industrial structure demonstrate significant explanatory power. These findings highlight the necessity for government action to balance agricultural spatial use with ecological protection and economic development, thereby providing scientific references for optimizing future land spatial structures and formulating regional carbon balance policies. Full article

The sustainability of global agricultural produce supply chains is crucial for ensuring global food security, fostering environmental protection, and advancing socio-economic development. This study integrates bibliometric analysis, knowledge mapping, and the ABCDE framework to conduct a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis of 742 relevant articles from the Web of Science core database spanning January 2009 to July 2023. Initially, bibliometric analysis and knowledge mapping reveal the annual progression of research on the sustainability of global agricultural produce supply chains, the collaborative networks among research institutions and authors, and the geographic distribution of research activities worldwide, successfully pinpointing the current research focal points. Subsequently, the ABCDE framework, constructed from the quantitative findings, helps us identify and comprehend the antecedents, barriers and challenges, impacts, and driving forces affecting the sustainability of these supply chains. The study identifies globalization and technological advancement as the primary forces shaping the sustainability of agricultural produce supply chains, despite them also posing challenges such as resource constraints and environmental pressures. Moreover, the application of innovative technologies, the optimization of organizational models, and active stakeholder engagement are key to propelling supply chains toward more sustainable development, exerting a profound impact on society, the environment, and the economy. In conclusion, this study suggests future research directions. The integrated methodology presented offers new perspectives and deep insights into the complexities of sustainable global agricultural produce supply chains, demonstrating its potential to foster knowledge innovation and practical applications, providing valuable insights for academic research and policy formulation in this domain. Full article

This study examines the impact of China’s industrial land approval reform (ILAR) on the provision of subnational services. Utilizing the 2011 pilot reform policy approved by the State Council, we utilize a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) method to determine the reform’s impact on local economic growth and environmental protection. The findings reveal that the reform enhances local economic development and decreases pollution levels. Additionally, the reform significantly decreases land resource misallocation in pilot cities, enhancing productivity. We also find that local governments allocate more land to the tertiary sector through this reform, achieving industrial upgrading. The optimization effects are more pronounced in cities with higher fiscal pressure. Based on these findings, we recommend that policymakers sustain decentralization efforts and consider further incentives for cities under fiscal stress. We fill a gap in the literature by linking land use regulation with subnational service provision, contributing to the understanding of the socioeconomic benefits of decentralization and local government service levels. Full article

National parks play a crucial role in protecting ecosystems and biodiversity while facing challenges in balancing nature conservation and economic development. However, because of the difficulty in the unified simulation of natural protection functions and regional socioeconomic development, there is a lack of integrated prediction research on the comprehensive development pathways of national parks and their surrounding areas. This study adopts the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework that links climate change research with socioeconomic development paths, taking China’s first national park—Sanjiangyuan National Park—region as an example, to conduct research on the synergistic development path of regional socioeconomic development and national parks. The model design includes five typical paths to cover a wide range of socioeconomic development possibilities. These paths are based on different assumptions, including factors such as population growth, economic development, energy use, technological progress, and policy choices. By applying scenario planning methods, optimal development pathways are identified based on environmental, economic, and social priorities. The results show that GDP growth is fastest under the sustainable development and fossil fuel development pathways. By 2050, the population difference under different pathways will approach 100,000, and the GDP gap will be close to CNY 200 billion. This study provides valuable insights for the planning, decision-making, and management of Sanjiangyuan and similar national parks and their surrounding areas, contributing to the promotion of sustainable ecological and economic development of national parks and their regions. Full article

The lower course of the Yellow River is a “hanging river” across the hinterland of China, and the safety of its flood control measures/systems is closely tied to the stability of the nation. Ensuring high-quality, sustainable development of the lower Yellow River floodplain while maintaining flood safety is crucial for the entire Yellow River Basin. Previous studies have primarily focused on the overall development of the Yellow River Basin or the economic–ecological coupling development of cities along the river, often neglecting the flood safety development of the floodplain. This study optimizes the socio-economic–flood-safety–ecological (SFE) system of the typical downstream Landong floodplain within the Yellow River Basin. The system dynamics model (SDM) can simulate the dynamic behavior of SFE systems by constructing mathematical models that incorporate feedback loops and time delays. The primary components include causal loop modules and stock-flow modules. Then, a coupling coordination degree model for the Landong floodplain is established using a comprehensive subjective and objective weighting method, assessing the SFE system’s coordination under five scenarios: inertial development, economic development, environmental protection, flood safety, and sustainable development. The results of historical and validity tests indicate that the SDM can effectively simulate the coupling coordination degree of the SFE system. The study results suggest that the coupling coordination degree increases the most under the sustainable development scenario, indicating that the development of the Landong floodplain should not only focus on socio-economic growth, but should also consider flood safety and ecological concerns. In addition, comprehensive regulation from socio-economic, flood safety, and ecological environment indicators are necessary to achieve high-quality, coordinated development. This study has significant implications for policy formulation and management to achieve high-quality and sustainable development in the downstream floodplain of the Yellow River. Full article

Carbon storage (C-storage) is a critical indicator of ecosystem services, and it plays a vital role in maintaining ecological balance and driving sustainability. Its assessment provides essential insights for enhancing environmental protection, optimizing land use, and formulating policies that support long-term ecological and economic sustainability. Previous research on C-storage in the Yellow River Basin has mainly concentrated on the spatiotemporal fluctuations of C-storage and the investigation of natural influencing factors. However, research combining human activity factors to explore the influences on C-storage is limited. In this paper, based on the assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of C-storage in the region along the Middle and Lower Yellow River (MLYR), the influences of anthropogenic and natural factors on C-storage were explored from the perspective of sustainable development. The findings reflected the relationship between socio-economic activities and the ecological environment from a sustainable development perspective, providing important scientific evidence for the formulation of sustainability policies in the region. We noticed the proportion of arable land was the highest, reaching 40%. The increase of construction land because of the fast urbanization mainly came from arable land and grassland. During the past 15 years, the cumulative loss of C-storage was 71.17 × 10⁶ t. The high-value of C-storage was primarily situated in hilly areas, and the area of C-storage hotspots was shrinking. The aggregation effect of low-value C-storage was strengthening, while that of high-value C-storage was weakening. The dominant factors (q > 0.5) influencing the spatiotemporal variation of C-storage in the region along the Middle Yellow River (MYR) were temperature and precipitation, while the primary factor in the region along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) was temperature. Overall, meteorological factors were the main determinants across the entire study area. Additionally, compared to the MYR, anthropogenic factors had a smaller impact on the spatiotemporal evolution of C-storage in the LYR, but their influence has been increasing over time. Full article

The municipal solid waste (MSW) remains a great challenge in most cities of developing countries, as the majority of the generated waste is either not collected or is dumped in open uncontrolled non-engineered landfill sites, creating significant pollution due to the leakage of landfill leachate in the surrounding environment. In developing countries, a complete transition to a zero-landfill scenario is less likely to happen in the near future due to various socio-economic challenges. Therefore, the existing landfills in developing countries need holistic waste management thinking with more efforts on waste to energy conversions. This study highlights the challenges with existing MSW management practices of Curitiba, Brazil, and suggests some holistic and sustainable landfill management techniques. This is accomplished through the (i) identification of the suitable sites for setting up transfer stations (TSs), (ii) route optimization for MSW transportation, and (iii) analysis of the life expectancy of the existing landfill with waste valorization techniques for enhancing circularity of MSW of the city. The study has identified six potential TSs, making use of various geological criteria and constraints as suggested by the United States Environmental Protection Agency using GIS-based spatial analysis, which could save fuel cost of approximately 1.5 million Brazilian Real (BRL) per year for the solid waste transportation (from the source to the landfill site). This research has also made a value addition in this specific field with the preparation of a digitized road network map of the study region. Further, the sensitivity-based scenario analysis highlights that the lifespan of the existing landfill (until 2030) might be extended to 2058 if the city achieves the targeted recycling rate of 85% compared with the current rate of 23%. The results would be useful for policy-makers to adopt the crucial MSW scenario to achieve a circular economy in the waste management of the city of Curitiba. Full article