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Search Results (142)

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15 pages, 6454 KiB  
Article
xLSTM-Based Urban Traffic Flow Prediction for Intelligent Transportation Governance
by Chung-I Huang, Jih-Sheng Chang, Jun-Wei Hsieh, Jyh-Horng Wu and Wen-Yi Chang
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(14), 7859; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15147859 - 14 Jul 2025
Viewed by 251
Abstract
Urban traffic congestion poses persistent challenges to mobility, public safety, and governance efficiency in metropolitan areas. This study proposes an intelligent traffic flow forecasting framework based on an extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) model, specifically designed for real-time congestion prediction and proactive police [...] Read more.
Urban traffic congestion poses persistent challenges to mobility, public safety, and governance efficiency in metropolitan areas. This study proposes an intelligent traffic flow forecasting framework based on an extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) model, specifically designed for real-time congestion prediction and proactive police dispatch support. Utilizing a real-world dataset collected from over 300 vehicle detector (VD) sensors, the proposed model integrates vehicle volume, speed, and lane occupancy data at five-minute intervals. Methodologically, the xLSTM model incorporates matrix-based memory cells and exponential gating mechanisms to enhance spatio-temporal learning capabilities. Model performance is evaluated using multiple metrics, including congestion classification accuracy, F1-score, MAE, RMSE, and inference latency. The xLSTM model achieves a congestion prediction accuracy of 87.3%, an F1-score of 0.882, and an average inference latency of 41.2 milliseconds—outperforming baseline LSTM, GRU, and Transformer-based models in both accuracy and speed. These results validate the system’s suitability for real-time deployment in police control centers, where timely prediction of traffic congestion enables anticipatory patrol allocation and dynamic signal adjustment. By bridging AI-driven forecasting with public safety operations, this research contributes a validated and scalable approach to intelligent transportation governance, enhancing the responsiveness of urban mobility systems and advancing smart city initiatives. Full article
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24 pages, 3062 KiB  
Article
Sustainable IoT-Enabled Parking Management: A Multiagent Simulation Framework for Smart Urban Mobility
by Ibrahim Mutambik
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6382; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146382 - 11 Jul 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 293
Abstract
The efficient management of urban parking systems has emerged as a pivotal issue in today’s smart cities, where increasing vehicle populations strain limited parking infrastructure and challenge sustainable urban mobility. Aligned with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the strategic [...] Read more.
The efficient management of urban parking systems has emerged as a pivotal issue in today’s smart cities, where increasing vehicle populations strain limited parking infrastructure and challenge sustainable urban mobility. Aligned with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the strategic goals of smart city planning, this study presents a sustainability-driven, multiagent simulation-based framework to model, analyze, and optimize smart parking dynamics in congested urban settings. The system architecture integrates ground-level IoT sensors installed in parking spaces, enabling real-time occupancy detection and communication with a centralized system using low-power wide-area communication protocols (LPWAN). This study introduces an intelligent parking guidance mechanism that dynamically directs drivers to the nearest available slots based on location, historical traffic flow, and predicted availability. To manage real-time data flow, the framework incorporates message queuing telemetry transport (MQTT) protocols and edge processing units for low-latency updates. A predictive algorithm, combining spatial data, usage patterns, and time-series forecasting, supports decision-making for future slot allocation and dynamic pricing policies. Field simulations, calibrated with sensor data in a representative high-density urban district, assess system performance under peak and off-peak conditions. A comparative evaluation against traditional first-come-first-served and static parking systems highlights significant gains: average parking search time is reduced by 42%, vehicular congestion near parking zones declines by 35%, and emissions from circling vehicles drop by 27%. The system also improves user satisfaction by enabling mobile app-based reservation and payment options. These findings contribute to broader sustainability goals by supporting efficient land use, reducing environmental impacts, and enhancing urban livability—key dimensions emphasized in sustainable smart city strategies. The proposed framework offers a scalable, interdisciplinary solution for urban planners and policymakers striving to design inclusive, resilient, and environmentally responsible urban mobility systems. Full article
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40 pages, 886 KiB  
Article
Machine Learning in Smart Buildings: A Review of Methods, Challenges, and Future Trends
by Fatema El Husseini, Hassan N. Noura, Ola Salman and Khaled Chahine
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(14), 7682; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15147682 - 9 Jul 2025
Viewed by 377
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a transformative force in smart building management due to its ability to significantly enhance energy efficiency and promote sustainability within the built environment. This review examines the pivotal role of ML in optimizing building operations through the [...] Read more.
Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a transformative force in smart building management due to its ability to significantly enhance energy efficiency and promote sustainability within the built environment. This review examines the pivotal role of ML in optimizing building operations through the application of predictive analytics and sophisticated automated control systems. It explores the diverse applications of ML techniques in critical areas such as energy forecasting, non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM), and predictive maintenance. A thorough analysis then identifies key challenges that impede widespread adoption, including issues related to data quality, privacy concerns, system integration complexities, and scalability limitations. Conversely, the review highlights promising emerging opportunities in advanced analytics, the seamless integration of renewable energy sources, and the convergence with the Internet of Things (IoT). Illustrative case studies underscore the tangible benefits of ML implementation, demonstrating substantial energy savings ranging from 15% to 40%. Future trends indicate a clear trajectory towards the development of highly autonomous building management systems and the widespread adoption of occupant-centric designs. Full article
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20 pages, 1581 KiB  
Article
Smart Building Recommendations with LLMs: A Semantic Comparison Approach
by Ioannis Papaioannou, Christos Korkas and Elias Kosmatopoulos
Buildings 2025, 15(13), 2303; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings15132303 - 30 Jun 2025
Viewed by 417
Abstract
The increasing need for sustainable energy management in smart buildings calls for cost-effective solutions that balance energy efficiency and occupant comfort. This article presents a Large Language Model (LLM)-based recommendation system capable of generating proactive, context-aware suggestions from dynamic building conditions. The system [...] Read more.
The increasing need for sustainable energy management in smart buildings calls for cost-effective solutions that balance energy efficiency and occupant comfort. This article presents a Large Language Model (LLM)-based recommendation system capable of generating proactive, context-aware suggestions from dynamic building conditions. The system was trained on a combination of real-world data and Sinergym simulations, capturing inputs such as weather conditions, forecasts, energy usage, electricity prices, and detailed zone parameters. Five models were fine-tuned and evaluated: GPT-2-Small, GPT-2-Medium, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, and GPT-4. To enhance evaluation precision, a novel metric, the Zone-Aware Semantic Reward (ZASR), was developed, combining Sentence-BERT with zone-level scoring and complemented by F1-Score metrics. While GPT-4 demonstrated strong performance with minimal data, its high inference cost limits scalability. In contrast, open-access models like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, and GPT-2-Medium required larger datasets but matched or exceeded GPT-4’s performance at significantly lower cost. The system demonstrated adaptability across diverse building types, supported by heterogeneous datasets and parameter normalization. Importantly, the system was also deployed in a real-world multi-zone residential building in Thessaloniki, Greece. During a two-week operational period under near-identical weather and occupancy conditions, the model-assisted recommendations contributed to an estimated 10% reduction in electricity consumption, showcasing the practical potential of LLM-based recommendations in live building environments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Building Energy, Physics, Environment, and Systems)
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19 pages, 583 KiB  
Review
Analyzing Patterns and Predictive Models of Energy and Water Consumption in Schools
by Hana Begić Juričić and Hrvoje Krstić
Sustainability 2025, 17(12), 5514; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125514 - 15 Jun 2025
Viewed by 417
Abstract
Schools are major consumers of energy and water, significantly influencing environmental sustainability and operational budgets. This study presents a comprehensive review of global trends in energy and water consumption in school buildings, identifying key factors that shape usage patterns, such as the geographic [...] Read more.
Schools are major consumers of energy and water, significantly influencing environmental sustainability and operational budgets. This study presents a comprehensive review of global trends in energy and water consumption in school buildings, identifying key factors that shape usage patterns, such as the geographic location, climate, building characteristics, and occupancy levels. A particular focus is placed on the role of predictive models in enhancing resource efficiency. The review found that energy consumption in schools varies widely, with heating, lighting, and cooling systems being the primary contributors. In contrast, research on water consumption—especially predictive modeling—is notably scarce, with no studies found that focused specifically on school buildings. This highlights a critical gap in the literature. This study evaluated the existing predictive approaches, including regression analyses, machine learning algorithms, and statistical models, which offer valuable tools for forecasting consumption and guiding targeted efficiency interventions. The findings underscore the urgent need for data-driven strategies to support sustainable resource management in educational facilities. Full article
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19 pages, 1546 KiB  
Article
Model for Determining Parking Demand Using Simulation-Based Pricing
by Hrvoje Pavlek, Marko Slavulj, Božidar Ivanković and Luka Vidan
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(12), 6603; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15126603 - 12 Jun 2025
Viewed by 406
Abstract
Urban traffic management faces significant challenges in balancing parking supply with user demand. This study introduces a novel parking demand model that integrates simulation-based pricing with elasticity functions derived from revealed preference data, segmented across predefined user categories, such as short-term visitors (e.g., [...] Read more.
Urban traffic management faces significant challenges in balancing parking supply with user demand. This study introduces a novel parking demand model that integrates simulation-based pricing with elasticity functions derived from revealed preference data, segmented across predefined user categories, such as short-term visitors (e.g., shoppers) and monthly subscribers (e.g., commuters). Unlike previous models, this approach does not rely on survey-based inputs and explicitly accounts for both natural and chaotic demand behaviors, thereby improving forecasting accuracy under oversaturated conditions. The model supports sustainable parking management by optimizing space availability, while simultaneously increasing occupancy and enhancing revenue generation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Urban Mobility)
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24 pages, 6049 KiB  
Article
Bayesian Optimized of CNN-M-LSTM for Thermal Comfort Prediction and Load Forecasting in Commercial Buildings
by Chi Nghiep Le, Stefan Stojcevski, Tan Ngoc Dinh, Arangarajan Vinayagam, Alex Stojcevski and Jaideep Chandran
Designs 2025, 9(3), 69; https://doi.org/10.3390/designs9030069 - 4 Jun 2025
Viewed by 1229
Abstract
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for 60% of the energy consumption in commercial buildings. Each year, millions of dollars are spent on electricity bills by commercial building operators. To address this energy consumption challenge, a predictive model named Bayesian optimisation [...] Read more.
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for 60% of the energy consumption in commercial buildings. Each year, millions of dollars are spent on electricity bills by commercial building operators. To address this energy consumption challenge, a predictive model named Bayesian optimisation Convolution Neural Network Multivariate Long Short-term Memory (BO CNN-M-LSTM) is introduced in this research. The proposed model is designed to perform load forecasting, optimizing energy usage in commercial buildings. The CNN block extracts local features, whereas the M-LSTM captures temporal dependencies. The hyperparameter fine tuning framework applied Bayesian optimization to enhance output prediction by modifying model properties with data characteristics. Moreover, to improve occupant well-being in commercial buildings, the thermal comfort adaptive model developed by de Dear and Brager was applied to ambient temperature in the preprocessing stage. As a result, across all four datasets, the BO CNN-M-LSTM consistently outperformed other models, achieving an 8% improvement in mean percentage absolute error (MAPE), 2% in normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and 2% in R2 score.This indicates the consistent performance of BO CNN-M-LSTM under varying environmental factors, highlight the model robustness and adaptability. Hence, the BO CNN-M-LSTM model is a highly effective predictive load forecasting tool for commercial building HVAC systems. Full article
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16 pages, 40466 KiB  
Article
Hybrid Neural Network Approach with Physical Constraints for Predicting the Potential Occupancy Set of Surrounding Vehicles
by Bin Sun, Shichun Yang, Jiayi Lu, Yu Wang, Xinjie Feng and Yaoguang Cao
Math. Comput. Appl. 2025, 30(3), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/mca30030056 - 15 May 2025
Viewed by 538
Abstract
The reliable and uncertainty-aware prediction of surrounding vehicles remains a key challenge in autonomous driving. However, existing methods often struggle to quantify and incorporate uncertainty effectively. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid architecture that combines a data-driven neural trajectory predictor with [...] Read more.
The reliable and uncertainty-aware prediction of surrounding vehicles remains a key challenge in autonomous driving. However, existing methods often struggle to quantify and incorporate uncertainty effectively. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid architecture that combines a data-driven neural trajectory predictor with physically grounded constraints to forecast future vehicle occupancy. Specifically, the physical constraints are derived from vehicle kinematic principles and embedded into the network as additional loss terms during training. This integration ensures that predicted trajectories conform to feasible and physically realistic motion boundaries. Furthermore, a mixture density network (MDN) is employed to estimate predictive uncertainty, transforming deterministic trajectory predictions into spatial probability distributions. This enables a probabilistic occupancy representation, offering a richer and more informative description of the potential future positions of surrounding vehicles. The proposed model is trained and evaluated on the Aerial Dataset for China’s Congested Highways and Expressways (AD4CHE), which contains representative driving scenarios in China. Experimental results demonstrate that the model achieves strong fitting performance while maintaining high physical plausibility in its predictions. Full article
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25 pages, 2082 KiB  
Article
Optimizing Space Heating in Buildings: A Deep Learning Approach for Energy Efficiency
by Fernando Almeida, Mauro Castelli, Nadine Corte-Real and Luca Manzoni
Energies 2025, 18(10), 2471; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18102471 - 12 May 2025
Viewed by 507
Abstract
Building energy management is crucial in reducing energy consumption and maintaining occupant comfort, especially in heating systems. However, achieving optimal space heating efficiency while maintaining consistent comfort presents significant challenges. Traditional methods often fail to balance energy consumption with thermal comfort, especially across [...] Read more.
Building energy management is crucial in reducing energy consumption and maintaining occupant comfort, especially in heating systems. However, achieving optimal space heating efficiency while maintaining consistent comfort presents significant challenges. Traditional methods often fail to balance energy consumption with thermal comfort, especially across multiple zones in buildings with varying operational demands. This study investigates the role of deep learning models in optimizing space heating while maintaining thermal comfort across multiple building zones. It aims to enhance heating efficiency by developing predictive models for building temperature and heating consumption, evaluating the effectiveness of different deep learning architectures, and analyzing the impact of model-driven heating optimization on energy savings and occupant comfort. To address this challenge, this study employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Transformer models to forecast area temperatures and predict space heating consumption. The proposed methodology leverages historical building temperature data, weather station measurements such as atmospheric pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and solar radiation, along with other weather parameters, to develop accurate and reliable predictions. A two-stage deep learning process is utilized: first, temperature predictions are generated for different building zones, and second, these predictions are used to estimate global heating consumption. This study also employs grid search and cross-validation to optimize the model configurations and custom loss functions to ensure energy efficiency and occupant comfort. Results demonstrate that the Long Short-Term Memory and Transformer models outperform the Gated Recurrent Unit regarding heating reduction, with a 20.95% and 20.69% decrease, respectively, compared to actual consumption. This study contributes significantly to energy management by providing a deep learning-driven framework that enhances energy efficiency while maintaining thermal comfort across different building areas, thereby supporting sustainable and intelligent building operations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section F5: Artificial Intelligence and Smart Energy)
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25 pages, 7617 KiB  
Article
Optimization of Hydronic Heating System in a Commercial Building: Application of Predictive Control with Limited Data
by Rana Loubani, Didier Defer, Ola Alhaj-Hasan and Julien Chamoin
Energies 2025, 18(9), 2260; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18092260 - 29 Apr 2025
Viewed by 428
Abstract
Optimizing building equipment control is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency. This article presents a predictive control applied to a commercial building heated by a hydronic system, comparing its performance to a traditional heating curve-based strategy. The approach is developed and validated using TRNSYS18 [...] Read more.
Optimizing building equipment control is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency. This article presents a predictive control applied to a commercial building heated by a hydronic system, comparing its performance to a traditional heating curve-based strategy. The approach is developed and validated using TRNSYS18 modeling, which allows for comparison of the control methods under the same weather boundary conditions. The proposed strategy balances energy consumption and indoor thermal comfort. It aims to optimize the control of the secondary heating circuit’s water setpoint temperature, so it is not the boiler supply water temperature that is optimized, but rather the temperature of the water that feeds the radiators. Limited data poses challenges for capturing system dynamics, addressed through a black-box approach combining two machine learning models: an artificial neural network predicts indoor temperature, while a support vector machine estimates gas consumption. Incorporating weather forecasts, occupancy scenarios, and comfort requirements, a genetic algorithm identifies optimal hourly setpoints. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating sufficiently accurate models for this type of application using limited data. It offers a simplified and efficient optimization approach to heat control in such buildings. The case study results show energy savings up to 30% compared to a traditional control method. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimizing Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort in Building)
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19 pages, 2579 KiB  
Article
Predicting Workplace Hazard, Stress and Burnout Among Public Health Inspectors: An AI-Driven Analysis in the Context of Climate Change
by Ioannis Adamopoulos, Antonios Valamontes, Panagiotis Tsirkas and George Dounias
Eur. J. Investig. Health Psychol. Educ. 2025, 15(5), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/ejihpe15050065 - 22 Apr 2025
Viewed by 1106
Abstract
The increasing severity of climate-related workplace hazards challenges occupational health and safety, particularly for Public Health and Safety Inspectors. Exposure to extreme temperatures, air pollution, and high-risk environments heightens immediate physical threats and long-term burnout. This study employs Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven predictive analytics [...] Read more.
The increasing severity of climate-related workplace hazards challenges occupational health and safety, particularly for Public Health and Safety Inspectors. Exposure to extreme temperatures, air pollution, and high-risk environments heightens immediate physical threats and long-term burnout. This study employs Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven predictive analytics and secondary data analysis to assess hazards and forecast burnout risks. Machine learning models, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost 3.0), Random Forest, Autoencoders, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs), achieved 85–90% accuracy in hazard prediction, reducing workplace incidents by 35% over six months. Burnout risk analysis identified key predictors: physical hazard exposure (β = 0.76, p < 0.01), extended work hours (>10 h/day, +40% risk), and inadequate training (β = 0.68, p < 0.05). Adaptive workload scheduling and fatigue monitoring reduced burnout prevalence by 28%. Real-time environmental data improved hazard detection, while Natural Language Processing (NLP)-based text mining identified stress-related indicators in worker reports. The results demonstrate AI’s effectiveness in workplace safety, predicting, classifying, and mitigating risks. Reinforcement learning-based adaptive monitoring optimizes workforce well-being. Expanding predictive-driven occupational health frameworks to broader industries could enhance safety protocols, ensuring proactive risk mitigation. Future applications include integrating biometric wearables and real-time physiological monitoring to improve predictive accuracy and strengthen occupational resilience. Full article
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20 pages, 9853 KiB  
Article
Impact of the Urban Environment on the Thermal Performance and Environmental Quality of Residential Buildings: A Case Study in Athens
by Maria Kolokotroni, May Zune, Petra Gratton, Thet Paing Tun, Ilia Christantoni and Dimitra Tsakanika
Energies 2025, 18(8), 2062; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18082062 - 17 Apr 2025
Viewed by 422
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the urban context on the energy performance of a residential building in Athens. Current and future weather files were modified to consider the urban heat island, the overshadowing of adjacent buildings, and the modification of wind speed [...] Read more.
This paper examines the impact of the urban context on the energy performance of a residential building in Athens. Current and future weather files were modified to consider the urban heat island, the overshadowing of adjacent buildings, and the modification of wind speed due to the effects of urban canyons. Dynamic thermal simulations were carried out using the modified weather files. The results indicate that there was a change in heating and cooling demand in comparison to using typical weather files; heating was reduced, but cooling was increased with a total increase in energy demand. There was variation due to height, while overshadowing impacts energy demand significantly. The modified weather analysis also indicates that there are periods in the year that cooling and heating are negligible. During these periods, passive strategies can be used to maintain good internal air quality if occupants are informed how to use their windows and shading devices according to prevailing weather conditions. A method of achieving this occupant-centric operation of the building is described, and the results of an intervention study are discussed. It shows that internal environmental quality can be improved by occupant actions based on forecast weather conditions to direct them. Full article
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35 pages, 3509 KiB  
Review
Energy Management Systems in Higher Education Institutions’ Buildings
by Enrique C. Quispe, Miguel Viveros Mira, Mauricio Chamorro Díaz, Rosaura Castrillón Mendoza and Juan R. Vidal Medina
Energies 2025, 18(7), 1810; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18071810 - 3 Apr 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1591
Abstract
This study reviews the methods used to implement energy management systems (EnMS) in higher education institutions (HEIs) and their impact on improving energy performance considering their relationship with the requirements for an EnMS according to ISO 50001. From 2310 articles, 136 articles and [...] Read more.
This study reviews the methods used to implement energy management systems (EnMS) in higher education institutions (HEIs) and their impact on improving energy performance considering their relationship with the requirements for an EnMS according to ISO 50001. From 2310 articles, 136 articles and 5 technical reports related to EnMS and energy efficiency were selected and analyzed. A synthesis of the major actions taken by HEIs to enhance their energy performance is presented, including energy management strategies, methods for measuring and estimating consumption, occupant behavior models that influence energy use, barriers to energy efficiency in HEIs buildings, and future challenges. It was found that studies on building energy management systems often do not incorporate an analysis of CO2 emissions reduction. Funding for this research is driven by directives and policies related to energy performance. These results should assist HEIs seeking to implement an EnMS to improve their energy performance and reduce CO2 emissions, thereby contributing to energy security, climate change mitigation, and fostering a new culture of energy use and consumption. It was also found that, although most studies do not explicitly mention the ISO 50001 standard, all of them comply with at least one of its requirements. Additionally, 27% of energy management strategies focus on operational aspects, while 26% involve energy audits, primarily through measurement, estimation, forecasting, energy reviews, and the establishment of an energy baseline (EnBL). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Technologies for Energy-Efficient Buildings)
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17 pages, 2468 KiB  
Article
Real Implementation and Testing of Short-Term Building Load Forecasting: A Comparison of SVR and NARX
by Juan José Hernández, Irati Zapirain, Haritza Camblong, Nora Barroso and Octavian Curea
Energies 2025, 18(7), 1775; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18071775 - 2 Apr 2025
Viewed by 500
Abstract
In self-consumption (SC) configurations, energy management systems (EMSs) are increasingly being implemented to maximise the self-consumption ratio (SCR). Recent studies have demonstrated that prediction-based EMSs significantly enhance decision-making capabilities compared to non-predictive EMSs. This paper presents the design, implementation, and testing on a [...] Read more.
In self-consumption (SC) configurations, energy management systems (EMSs) are increasingly being implemented to maximise the self-consumption ratio (SCR). Recent studies have demonstrated that prediction-based EMSs significantly enhance decision-making capabilities compared to non-predictive EMSs. This paper presents the design, implementation, and testing on a real system of two machine learning (ML)-type predictive models capable of forecasting the electricity consumption of an individual building using a small dataset. A nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) neural network model and a support vector regression (SVR) model were designed and compared. These models predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption using forecasted meteorological data from Meteo Galicia (MG) and building occupancy data, both automatically obtained and pre-processed. In order to compensate for the lack of recurrence of the SVR model, the effect of introducing an additional input, a time vector, was analysed. It is proved that both ML models trained with a small dataset are able to predict the next day’s average hourly power with a mean MAPE below 13.96% and a determination coefficient (R2) greater than 0.78. The model that most accurately predicts the hourly average power of a week is the SVR, which achieves a mean MAPE and R2 of 10.73% and 0.85, respectively. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Renewable Energy Power Forecasting and Integration)
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25 pages, 4434 KiB  
Article
Transforming Building Energy Management: Sparse, Interpretable, and Transparent Hybrid Machine Learning for Probabilistic Classification and Predictive Energy Modelling
by Yiping Meng, Yiming Sun, Sergio Rodriguez and Binxia Xue
Architecture 2025, 5(2), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/architecture5020024 - 31 Mar 2025
Viewed by 702
Abstract
The building sector, responsible for 40% of global energy consumption, faces increasing demands for sustainability and energy efficiency. Accurate energy consumption forecasting is essential to optimise performance and reduce environmental impact. This study introduces a hybrid machine learning framework grounded in Sparse, Interpretable, [...] Read more.
The building sector, responsible for 40% of global energy consumption, faces increasing demands for sustainability and energy efficiency. Accurate energy consumption forecasting is essential to optimise performance and reduce environmental impact. This study introduces a hybrid machine learning framework grounded in Sparse, Interpretable, and Transparent (SIT) modelling to enhance building energy management. Leveraging the REFIT Smart Home Dataset, the framework integrates occupancy pattern analysis, appliance-level energy prediction, and probabilistic uncertainty quantification. The framework clusters occupancy-driven energy usage patterns using K-means and Gaussian Mixture Models, identifying three distinct household profiles: high-energy frequent occupancy, moderate-energy variable occupancy, and low-energy irregular occupancy. A Random Forest classifier is employed to pinpoint key appliances influencing occupancy, with a drop-in accuracy analysis verifying their predictive power. Uncertainty analysis quantifies classification confidence, revealing ambiguous periods linked to irregular appliance usage patterns. Additionally, time-series decomposition and appliance-level predictions are contextualised with seasonal and occupancy dynamics, enhancing interpretability. Comparative evaluations demonstrate the framework’s superior predictive accuracy and transparency over traditional single machine learning models, including Support Vector Machines (SVM) and XGBoost in Matlab 2024b and Python 3.10. By capturing occupancy-driven energy behaviours and accounting for inherent uncertainties, this research provides actionable insights for adaptive energy management. The proposed SIT hybrid model can contribute to sustainable and resilient smart energy systems, paving the way for efficient building energy management strategies. Full article
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