Search Results (423)

The genus Dysosma, a group of perennial herbaceous plants with significant medicinal value and a relatively narrow ecological niche, is potentially at risk due to the combined pressures of habitat degradation and climate change. As their habitats continue to degrade, all species of this genus have been included in the National Key Protected Wild Plants List (Category II). Investigating the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Dysosma resources is vital for their sustainable utilization. In this study, the potential distribution dynamics of seven Dysosma species under current and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) were quantified using 534 occurrence points and 25 environmental variables in a MaxEnt model, accompanied by the ecological niche overlap index (Schoener’s D), dynamic metrics (relative change rate [RCR], change intensity [CI], stability index [SI], spatial displacement rate [SDR]), and centroid migration analysis. The results indicated that (1) areas of high habitat suitability were consistently concentrated in the mountainous and hilly regions of southwestern Guizhou, Chongqing, and Hubei, with the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) and the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2) being identified as the primary driving factors. (2) The future suitable habitat areas remained highly stable overall (SI > 97.89%), though dynamic changes varied across scenarios. Under SSP126, only slight fluctuations were observed, with an average CI of approximately 3.78% and RCR ranging from −0.46% to 1.97%. Under the SSP245 scenario, suitable habitat areas showed a continuous, slight expansion (RCR = 0.45% to 1.54%), whereas under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, a typical “mid-term expansion–late-term contraction” pattern was observed, with RCR shifting from positive (1.32%, 1.44%) to negative (−0.92%). The SI reached its lowest value of 97.89% in the late term, and the spatial displacement rate increased, signaling a reorganization of the distribution pattern. (3) High ecological niche differentiation was observed within the genus, with the highest overlap index being only 0.562, and approximately one-third of species pairs exhibiting completely non-overlapping niches. (4) Dysosma tsayuensis, a niche-specialist species, exhibited a distribution that was highly dependent on the annual mean ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB, contribution rate 52.9%), displaying an adaptation strategy markedly different from that of conservative species. (5) Centroid analysis indicated that, although the overall centroid remained stable in Guizhou, the presence of niche-specialist species under the high-emission SSP585 scenario resulted in migration paths opposite to those observed under other scenarios. The findings reveal the potential vulnerability and differential response patterns of Dysosma species under rapid climate warming, thereby providing a scientific basis for targeted conservation, in situ and ex situ conservation strategies, and population restoration. Full article

Based on niche theory, this study pioneered the application of the niche state-role model, suitability model, subgroup model, and overlap model in evaluating small-town communities, integrating both their endowment attributes and relational attributes. Taking Pingshan County, Hebei Province, China, as a case study, it revealed the evolution patterns of suburban small-town communities from 2000 to 2020. The results indicated significant changes in the comprehensive niche indices and rankings of small-town communities, though top-ranking towns remained relatively stable. Niche indices varied from dimensions, primarily manifesting a binary opposition between natural and humanistic factors. The overall suitability of small-town communities showed little change, but internal disparities gradually narrowed. The niche subgroups of small-town communities displayed a gradient distribution pattern: ecological functions significantly strengthened in the west of the county; population and economy functions continuously intensified in southeastern towns; while central-region towns maintained intermediate levels. Regarding niche overlap based on population and economy flows, the overall competitive intensity of small-town communities weakened, but competition among central region towns intensified. Regarding niche overlap based on ecology flows, the overall competitive intensity strengthened, with particularly notable changes in the central and eastern regions. Moreover, the spatial evolution of county-level small towns exhibited scale-dependent differences: while the macro-scale pattern remained relatively stable, the micro-scale pattern underwent significant changes, with the driving force gradually shifting from local endowments to factor flows. Full article

In this study, we investigated the current and future potential distribution of three parasitoid species of Drosophila suzukii, which represent promising candidates for the biological control of this pest: Leptopilina japonica (Hymenoptera, Figitidae), Pachycrepoideus vindemmiae (Hymenoptera, Pteromalidae), and Trichopria drosophilae (Hymenoptera, Diapriidae). To this end, we employed Ecological Niche Modeling using the Random Forest algorithm and climatic data from WorldClim v. 2.1 under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), analyzing the spatial overlap between the pest and its natural enemies. The results indicate that the parasitoids exhibit distinct geographic distributions, although most species show higher suitability for temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Species such as T. drosophilae and L. japonica stand out for their broad distribution and high overlap with the pest, whereas P. vindemmiae and display more restrictive climatic ranges and lower control efficiency. With ongoing climate change, all parasitoids tend to migrate toward higher latitudes, with significant range contractions in tropical regions. Thus, our results demonstrate the usefulness of Ecological Niche Modeling in the selection of biological control agents by considering host-specific preferences and environmental requirements in the development of management strategies adapted to future scenarios. Full article

The Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) are the only members of the subgenus of the Tetradacus of Bactrocera. They share nearly identical morphological characteristics and occupy highly overlapping ecological niches, specifically harming citrus crops and causing substantial damage to citrus production in China. To determine the suitable habitat of the two pests and how the citrus coverage affects this distribution. This study employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of B. minax and B. tsuneonis under current and future climate scenarios, using species occurrence data and key environmental variables. The result indicate that the MaxEnt model performed well, with an area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.969. The citrus distribution index, precipitation of driest month (BIO 14), min temperature of coldest month (BIO 6), and elevation were identified as the primary environmental factors affecting their PGDs. The PGDs for these pests are mainly concentrated in southern China, where citrus is extensively cultivated. Guizhou and Hunan identified as the most significant high-suitability habitat. The projected distribution of B. minax and B. tsuneonis show minimal changes under the future climate conditions estimated by the MaxENT model. However, under global warming scenarios, their PGDs are projected to gradually shrink, although eastern Sichuan remains at high risk of invasion by B. tsuneonis. Prevention, quarantine, and control measures for B. tsuneonis require continued attention. The findings of this study offer a more robust theoretical basis for the targeted monitoring and control of B. minax and B. tsuneonis in China. Full article

Bidens pilosa L. is a cosmopolitan and invasive weed that strongly impacts agricultural systems in tropical regions. In Veracruz, Mexico, its presence extends mainly across mid-elevation zones where coffee, maize, and sugarcane are cultivated. This study characterized the bioclimatic and edaphic determinants of B. pilosa distribution using 581 georeferenced occurrences combined with 19 bioclimatic variables, elevation, and soil data. A Maxent model revealed the highest habitat suitability (0.65–1.0) in the central mountainous region between 800 and 1500 m.a.s.l., particularly under temperate–humid climates (Cfa, Cfb) and Acrisol–Leptosol soils. Principal component and redundancy analyses showed that annual precipitation (BIO12), precipitation of the driest month (BIO14), and temperature seasonality (BIO4) explained 74.7% of the total environmental variance. Cluster analysis identified four distinct ecological groups, confirming broad ecological plasticity. These findings indicate that B. pilosa is not randomly distributed but structured along climatic and soil gradients, with precipitation and elevation as major determinants of its ecological niche. Understanding these relationships provides a quantitative framework for predicting its expansion under future climate scenarios and for designing targeted management strategies in tropical agroecosystems. Full article

Conventional tourism planning in ecologically fragile regions often adopts a reductionist perspective, failing to address the synergistic spatial interactions between ecological conservation, resource utilization, and infrastructure. To bridge this gap, this study develops a multi-constraint synergistic assessment framework for the dry-hot valley of Lujiang Dam (LJD) in China. Grounded in the understanding of rural tourism as a complex adaptive system, the framework innovatively integrates the InVEST model, kernel density estimation, and cumulative cost-distance algorithms to identify Natural Spatial Suitability for Tourism Development (NSSTD). Key findings include (1) pronounced spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, with high-quality zones in the west/southeast requiring strict conservation; (2) a “barbell-shaped” clustering of natural/cultural resources at the valley’s northern and southern extremities, highly congruent with ethnic settlements; and (3) a “concentric layered” accessibility pattern where 88.08% of resources are within a 90 min drive. Crucially, the spatial overlay analysis revealed that NSSTD (54.74 km²) emerges not from single high-value zones but from areas of synergy, such as those with medium habitat quality coupled with high resource endowment and accessibility. These results provide a scientifically robust, spatially explicit layer for China’s “Multi-plan Integration” territorial spatial planning. They enable differentiated strategies—channeling development to southern corridors, implementing niche tourism in northern “structural hole” villages, and enforcing conservation in western habitats—thereby offering a replicable methodology to balance ecological integrity with sustainable rural development. Full article

Climate change exacerbates the vulnerability of relict forests. However, plant taxa may buffer extinction risk through range shifts that track suitable habitats or through adjustments in their ecological niches, either via phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation to prevailing environmental regimes. In addition to these biological responses, the risks associated with climate change can also be mitigated through forest management practices and conservation strategies, including assisted migration. We used presence–absence data from Abies pinsapo Boiss. and environmental variables to describe the past and current natural distribution of the species by using species distribution models (SDMs). Then, we characterized future patterns of habitat suitability and identified potential areas for ecosystem restoration and assisted migration. The models predict a 77% loss of suitable habitat by 2060 and up to 99% by 2100 yet highlight climatically suitable areas outside the species’ current range—particularly in the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park and Sierras de Cazorla, Segura y Las Villas Natural Park. These results provide spatially explicit guidance for restoration and assisted migration strategies. Our findings demonstrate the need for proactive conservation planning and show that SDMs can help identify climate refugia for long-term species persistence. Full article

Pohlia cruda (Hedw.) Lindb. is a cryophilous moss species with a boreo-arctic montane distribution. As global temperatures continue to rise, high-mountain plant species are increasingly forced to migrate to higher elevations to remain within their ecological and physiological tolerance limits. In this study, we applied ensemble species-distribution modeling (SDM) to evaluate the future niche availability of P. cruda in Italy under two greenhouse gas-emission scenarios and two time periods (2050 and 2090). Projections under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) indicate a habitat loss ranging from −24.1% to −46.7%, whereas predictions under the very high emission of greenhouse gases (SSP5-8.5) suggest even greater losses, between −28.1% and −59.9%. These findings point to a substantial reduction, fragmentation, and potential disappearance of suitable habitats for P. cruda in the coming decades. This study represents a pioneering application of bryophyte-distribution modeling for the territory of Italy and provides a foundation for integrating such approaches into conservation decisions aimed at preserving biodiversity. Full article

Ecosystems worldwide are being influenced by climate change in complex ways, leading to profound impacts on biodiversity. While these shifts may constrain the adaptive capacity of some species, they may simultaneously promote the expansion of others, including certain rodents. The Funambulus pennantii (five-striped northern palm squirrel) and Funambulus palmarum (three-striped palm squirrel) demonstrate exceptional adaptability across diverse habitats from rural plantations to densely populated urban areas. Their close association with humans ranges from causing crop damage to becoming urban nuisances, leading to their broad classification as agricultural pests. Hence, this study utilizes ensemble species distribution models to identify the climatic niches of these two species and delineate overlapping suitable habitats within agricultural zones in current and different future climate scenarios. The ensemble model identified 215,748 km² of suitable habitat for F. pennantii and 39,578 km² for F. palmarum under current climatic conditions in India. The future projections indicate habitat increases of about 20.6% for F. pennantii and 48.1% for F. palmarum. The agricultural overlap is also projected to rise by up to 45% and 48%, respectively, compared with present overlaps of 215,595 km² and 39,073 km². The most substantial expansions are projected in the Gangetic Plains, Central Highlands, and parts of the Western and Eastern Ghats and Deccan Plateau. These findings suggest that both species possess high resilience to environmental change and may pose increasing risks to agriculture in a warming climate. The study underscores the need for proactive, ecologically sustainable management strategies to mitigate potential human–squirrel interactions and agricultural losses, offering a foundation for targeted regional interventions. Full article

Ancient wheats can be understood as dynamic populations of historically cultivated wheat, which, unlike modern varieties, have not been developed through organised genetic improvement programmes, but rather through traditional farmer selection and local adaptation over centuries. Recently, ancient wheats have enjoyed renewed popularity, particularly in Italy, due to their wide genetic diversity and the significant role of wheat and its derivatives (e.g., bread, pasta, and baked goods) in the country’s culinary and cultural heritage. However, information on the characteristics of Italian ancient wheats remains limited and fragmented. Therefore, this review aims to collect, organise and compare the available evidence on the historical, agronomic, economic and sustainability parameters of ancient wheats, in order to provide an overall assessment of these varieties. The results showed that 34 Italian ancient wheats were studied, mainly from Tuscany and Sicily. With plant heights of up to 180 cm and yields of 1.4–4.8 t/ha, ancient wheats are characterised by greater height but lower productivity compared to modern wheats. They demonstrate good adaptability to poor soils and climatic stress, natural competitiveness with weeds and potential resistance to pathogens, rendering them suitable for sustainable, low-input agricultural systems. Furthermore, ancient wheat flours cost more than twice as much as commercial flours, with average prices of €3.00–5.10/kg, mainly due to artisanal production methods and belonging to short or niche supply chains. Finally, considerable variability in test weight (TW) and thousand kernel weight (TKW) could negatively affect flour or semolina yields. In conclusion, despite their low productivity, ancient wheats could offer significant opportunities in terms of environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation, proving to be a strategic resource for more resilient and sustainable agriculture. Full article

Phoracantha semipunctata is a global quarantine pest, which is fatal to various tree species of the Eucalyptus. Currently, this pest has landed and colonized Guangdong province, China. Previously, there was very limited research information on P. semipunctata in China, which basically describes the taxonomic status. Field investigations found that the climatic ecological niche of the pest is continuing to expand. With global warming and the globalization of trade, signs of expansion may intensify the spread. In order to prevent any further spread of P. semipunctata, it is important to clarify its geographic distribution in China. In this study, the algorithm Random Forests was used to project the potential geographic distribution of P. semipunctata in China currently and in the future. Our results showed that temperature seasonality (Bio4) and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) are key environmental factors limiting the current distribution of P. semipunctata in China. Currently, P. semipunctata has been found in Guangdong province, colonizing in the triangle zone composed of Zhanjiang City, Qingyuan City, and Jieyang City, with the projected potential suitable distribution area of 50.88 × 10⁴ km². Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable distribution area is projected to increase, from Fujian province toward the north to Guangxi province toward the north. Building on these results, we predicted the potential future spread pattern of P. semipunctata and developed priority measures for its management. These findings provide a theoretical basis for designing effective quarantine and control strategies against P. semipunctata. Full article

Trifolium repens L. is a protein-rich, versatile Leguminous lawn plant that is widely distributed across global temperate and subtropical regions. As an invasive species originating in Europe, its distribution in China extends from Xinjiang in the West to Taiwan and the Yangtze River Delta in the East, and is widespread throughout Northeast and Central China. However, in recent years, the distribution pattern of T. repens has become increasingly patchy and irregular. Therefore, unraveling the potential distribution and key environmental drivers of T. repens is critical for understanding its ecological role. This study utilized current species distribution data of T. repens and employed the MaxEnt model to simulate its potentially suitable niches across present and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in China. This study identified Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) and Bio14 (precipitation of driest month) as the key drivers shaping the distribution of T. repens. Its current suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in the coastal, central, and Taiwan regions of China. Under future climates, these areas are projected to contract overall and shift toward lower latitudes and higher longitudes, with substantial suitable areas remaining only in the Eastern, Southern, and Taiwan regions. This study quantitatively assessed the ecological niche breadth of T. repens and its future spatial distribution under climate change, thereby laying a theoretical foundation for describing the ecological characteristics of this invasive species, conducting monitoring, and implementing further invasion risk management. Full article

Knowledge of the mechanisms of species coexistence is crucial for biodiversity conservation. The tufted deer (Elaphodus cephalophus), alpine musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster), and Chinese serow (Capricornis milneedwardsii) are all found in alpine ecosystems in Tibet, China. To investigate how these sympatric species achieve stable coexistence, we compared species distribution models and diurnal activity rhythms to analyze their spatial and temporal niche characteristics based on data collected from 186 camera traps set in Changdu prefecture. The results indicate he following: (1) In Changdu, the total area of suitable habitats for tufted deer, alpine musk deer and Chinese serow are 14,968 km², 41,909 km², and 36,954 km², respectively. These areas represent approximately 13.62%, 38.14%, and 33.63% of the study area, respectively. (2) The total overlapping area of suitable habitats between tufted deer and alpine musk deer is 5102 km². The total overlapping area of suitable habitats between tufted deer and Chinese serow is 6483 km². Additionally, the total overlapping area of suitable habitats between alpine musk deer and Chinese serow amounts to 26,869 km². (3) The overlap index for daily activity rhythms between tufted deer and alpine musk deer is 0.88—this difference is statistically significant (p < 0.001). Similarly, the overlap index for daily activity rhythms between tufted deer and Chinese serow is 0.82—also significantly different (p < 0.001). Lastly, the overlap index for daily activity rhythms between alpine musk deer and Chinese serow is 0.76—again showing a significant difference (p < 0.001). The results provide valuable insight into conservation strategies aimed at preserving populations and habitats of tufted deer, alpine musk deer, and Chinese serow while contributing to a deeper understanding of resource partitioning mechanisms as well as population dynamics among coexisting species. Full article

Alexandrium spp., globally recognized as harmful algal bloom (HAB) species, pose severe threats to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and public health. Based on 469 occurrence records and 24 marine environmental variables, this study employed the Biomod2 ensemble modeling framework to predict the potential distribution of Alexandrium spp. under current and future climate scenarios, and to assess the role of key environmental factors and the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat centroid shifts. The results revealed that (1) the ensemble model outperformed single models (AUC = 0.998, TSS = 0.977, Kappa = 0.978), providing higher robustness and reliability in prediction; (2) salinity range (bio18, 19.1%) and mean salinity (bio16, 5.8%) were the dominant factors, while minimum temperature (bio23) also showed strong constraints, indicating that salinity determines “whether persistence is possible,” while temperature influences “whether blooms occur”; (3) under present conditions, high-suitability habitats are concentrated in Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River estuary to the Fujian coast, and parts of Guangdong; (4) climate change is predicted to drive a southward shift of suitable habitats, with the most pronounced expansion under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), leading to the emergence of new high-risk areas in the South China coast and adjacent South China Sea; (5) centroid analysis further indicated a pronounced southward migration under RCP8.5 by 2100, highlighting a regional reconfiguration of ecological risks. Collectively, salinity and temperature are identified as the core drivers shaping the ecological niche of Alexandrium spp., and future warming is likely to exacerbate HAB risks in southern China. This study delineates key prevention regions and proposes a shift from reactive to proactive management strategies, providing scientific support for HAB monitoring and marine ecological security in China’s coastal waters. Full article

Misiones province covers < 1% of Argentina’s land area yet harbors > 50% of the country’s biodiversity, with a significant remnant of Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. Approximately 540,000 ha of this native forest is protected, with the remaining areas facing threats from ongoing land conversion, an expanding road network, and a growing rural population. A prior study incorporated noninvasive data on five carnivores into a multifaceted cost analysis to define the optimal location for a multispecies biological corridor, with the goal of enhancing landscape connectivity among protected areas. Subsequent analyses, with an updated framework, emphasized management strategies that balanced human–wildlife coexistence and habitat needs. Building on these efforts, our study applied ecological niche modeling to data located by conservation detection dogs, with genetics used to confirm species identity, and two land-use scenarios, to predict potential distributions of three game species—lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris), white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu)—that are not only threatened by poaching, road mortality, and habitat loss but also serve as essential prey for carnivores. We assessed the suitability of unique and overlapping vegetation types, within and outside of protected areas, as well as within this multispecies corridor, identifying zones of high conservation concern that underscore the need for integrated planning of predators and prey. These results highlight that ensuring the long-term viability of wildlife across the heterogeneous land-use matrices of Misiones requires going beyond protected areas to promote functional connectivity, restore degraded habitats, and balance human–wildlife needs. Full article