Search Results (43)

This study investigates the predictive performance of financial indicators in forecasting stock prices within the automotive sector using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In light of the growing complexity of global financial markets and the increasing demand for automated, data-driven forecasting models, this research aims to identify those financial ratios that most accurately reflect price dynamics in this specific industry. The model incorporates four widely used financial indicators, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), and profit margin (PM), as inputs. The analysis is based on real financial and market data from automotive companies, and model performance was assessed using RMSE, nRMSE, and confidence intervals. The results indicate that the full model, including all four indicators, achieved the highest accuracy and prediction stability, while the exclusion of ROA or ROE significantly deteriorated model performance. These findings challenge the weak-form efficiency hypothesis and underscore the relevance of firm-level fundamentals in stock price formation. This study’s sector-specific approach highlights the importance of tailoring predictive models to industry characteristics, offering implications for both financial modeling and investment strategies. Future research directions include expanding the indicator set, increasing the sample size, and testing the model across additional industry domains. Full article

As global climate change intensifies and carbon emission policies become increasingly stringent, carbon risk has emerged as a crucial factor influencing corporate operations and financial markets. Based on data from A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the pricing mechanism of carbon risk in the Chinese capital market and explores how different corporate signaling behaviors affect the carbon risk premium. The findings reveal the following: (1) Carbon risk exhibits a significant positive premium (annualized at about 1.33% per standard deviation), which remains robust over longer time windows and after replacing the measurement variables. (2) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon risk premium is not significant in high-energy-consuming industries or before the signing of the Paris Agreement, possibly due to changes in investor expectations and increased green awareness. Additionally, a significant difference in the carbon risk premium exists between brown and green stocks, reflecting a “labeling effect” of green attributes. (3) Issuing green bonds, as an active corporate signaling behavior, effectively mitigates the carbon risk premium, indicating that market investors highly recognize and favor firms that actively convey green signals. (4) A “greenwashing” indicator constructed from textual analysis of environmental information disclosure suggests that greenwashing leads to a mispricing of the carbon risk premium. Companies that issue false green signals—publicly committing to environmental protection but failing to implement corresponding emission reduction measures—may mislead investors and create adverse selection problems. Finally, this paper provides recommendations for corporate carbon risk management and policy formulation, offering insights for both research and practice in the field. Full article

This study analyzes the economic impacts of integrating floating offshore wind farms with a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The idea is to replace the use of natural gas for power supply with an offshore wind farm, considering the effects of carbon pricing. Results show that wind integration reduces emissions by 23% to 76%, depending on the installed capacity. However, higher wind capacity increases total system costs, initial investment, electricity and operational expenses. The Brazilian carbon credit market adversely impacts existing FPSO units as a result of the compulsory carbon trading costs necessary to mitigate their emissions. In contrast, wind-integrated scenarios benefited from carbon pricing, improving financial indicators such as payback period and Return on Investment. Wind shares of 30% and 70% yielded the best financial results for carbon prices between 10 and 50 United States Dollars per ton, with higher penalties further improving viability. These findings elucidate the significance of carbon pricing in mitigating emissions and enhancing the economic feasibility of offshore wind farms within the context of the Brazilian national FPSO decarbonization strategy. Full article

Aims: To describe and analyze trends in the utilization, spending, and average per prescription price of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in the US Medicaid population. Methods: Using the publicly available national outpatient Medicaid State Drug Utilization Data, a retrospective, descriptive trend analysis was conducted on DMARDs from 1991 to 2022. Annual prescription counts and reimbursement amounts were calculated for nonbiologic and biologic DMARDs. Average per prescription price and Market share competition were calculated and analyzed for DMARDs. Results: Medicaid utilization of nonbiologic peaked in 2021 with 884,000 while biologic DMARDs with 688,000 prescriptions. In 2022, biologic utilization took the lead and exceed nonbiologic with 1.5 million prescriptions. Over the last 32 years, biologics captured 94% of Medicaid expenditures toward DMARDs, of which, 56% was toward adalimumab alone. On the other hand, spending on conventional DMARDs accounted for 33% while 67% accounted toward Janus Kinase Inhibitors. Biologic DMARDs average prices increased from around $800 to around $6000. However, the average adalimumab price increased 12-fold from around $1200 in 2003 to over $15,000 in 2021. Medicaid spending toward adalimumab increased by 179%. Conclusions: The substantial increase of DMARDs utilization and expenditure contributed significant burden to Medicaid budget. Introducing biosimilars into the market in the past few years is eroding the market share for several established biologics. Further cost-containment policies may be necessary for costly DMARD pharmacotherapy. Full article

This study has made significant findings in A-share market data processing and portfolio management. Firstly, by adopting the Lasso method and CPCA framework, we effectively addressed the problem of multicollinearity among feature indicators, with the Lasso method demonstrating superior performance in handling this issue, thus providing a new method for financial data processing. Secondly, Deep Feedforward Neural Networks (DFN) exhibited exceptional performance in portfolio management, significantly outperforming other evaluated machine learning methods, and achieving high levels of out-of-sample performance and Sharpe ratios. Additionally, we consistently identified price changes, earnings per share, net assets per share, and excess returns as key factors influencing predictive signals. Finally, this study combined the Lasso method with DFN, providing a new perspective and methodological support for asset pricing measurement in the financial field. Full article

Household food waste accounts for a significant share of total food waste. In 2022, around 1.05 billion tons of food waste were generated—60% of which came from households. In the EU, households generate 54% of the total food waste. In Italy, according to a former diary study, avoidable household food waste accounts for 529.9 g per capita per week. Building on this data, this study assesses the monetary value of food waste at the household level in 6 provinces across the country, considering the prices of food items recorded by the Italian Observatory of market prices. Moreover, the environmental impacts of household food waste (greenhouse gas emissions, water consumed, and land used) were investigated based on existing data from well-grounded scientific literature. The results show that the monetary value of food waste ranges from EUR 357.43 to EUR 404.62 per household per year, corresponding to 5–7% of the average household expenditure for food. The environmental impacts per household per year account for 149 kgCO₂eq, which contributes to climate change. In addition, household food waste is responsible for 303,498 L of water consumed and 1426 m² of land used. The results of this study can be integrated into National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), to integrate food waste reduction into energy savings and greenhouse gas mitigation strategies. Full article

Shared market opinions and beliefs by market participants generate a set of constraints that mediate information through a not-so-unstable system of expected target prices. Price trajectories, within these sets of constraints, confirm or disprove the likelihood of participant expectations and cannot, de facto, be considered permutable, as literature has shown, since their inner structure is dynamically affected by their own progress, suggesting per se the presence of both heat and cycles. This study described and discussed how trajectories are built using different alphabets and suggests that prices follow an ergodic course within structurally similar tessellation classes. It is reported that the courses of price moves are self-similar due to their a priori structure, and they do not need to be complete in order to create the conditions, in resembling conditions, for the appearance of the well-known and commonly used Fibonacci ratios between price trajectories. To date, financial models and engineering are mostly based on the mathematics of randomness. If these theoretical findings need empirical validation, such a potential infrastructure of ratios would suggest the possibility for a superstructure to exist, in other words, the emergence of exploitable patterns. Full article

Poland is one of the leading milk producers in the EU, being the fifth largest after countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands. From Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004 up to 2022, Polish milk production experienced dynamic development. In this, there occurred a strong decline in the number of dairy farms (by −78%) and the number of cows (by −21%), an increase in dairy herd size (3.5 times) and increase in milk production (+60%) and milk yield per cow (by +62%). These were among the highest growth dynamics among the analysed countries. As a result of this significant transformation, Poland maintained an important position in milk exports, with a 31% export share in production in 2022. The scale of milk production was the basic factor determining the efficiency and competitiveness of dairy farms in Poland. Milk yield, farmland productivity, labour productivity, milk price, and the Corrected Competitiveness Index (based on labour and land opportunity costs) all showed a positive relationship with cow herd size on the farm. Milk production is highly uncompetitive for smaller farms (<15 cows). Despite substantial public support, the smaller farms, where subsidies equal up to 47% of total production value, could not earn sufficient income to cover the cost of capital, risk, and management in 2008, and even more so in 2021. This is because the farm income is too small to cover the extremely high opportunity cost of labour. The larger farms (with 30 cows and more) are competitive and responsible for the majority (~60–70%) of milk produced and delivered to the market. The most challenging from the sectoral policy point of view are medium farms (10–29 cows), whose share in production and deliveries is still important. To survive as economically viable units, these farms have to increase in scale and improve productivity. Otherwise, they will be gradually supplanted by larger farms. Full article

This study examined the relationship between the board characteristics and stock performance of commercial banks. Our analysis is based on a sample of 65 banks across 10 MENA countries and their quantitative data extracted between 2013 and 2022. This research employed pooled OLS, and fixed and random effect regression to confirm the association between board size, board independence, number of board meetings, and CEO duality with stock performance measured by the bank’s share price and market-to-book ratio. Further, several control variables were utilized such as the bank’s capital adequacy, profitability, and size. The empirical findings reveal that board independence positively affects the bank stock performance while the board size shows a negative relationship. This suggests that banks with fewer board members and high independence levels have their shares outperforming others. However, we found that having frequent board meetings per year and separate roles for the CEO and chairman have no impact on bank stock performance. Moreover, the findings indicate that the bank’s capital adequacy, size, and profitability have a positive effect on the stock performance. To test the robustness of our analysis, we implemented a one-limit Tobit model, which enables lower-bound censoring, and obtained similar findings thus confirming our hypotheses. From a practical perspective, our findings highlight the importance of the board size and the directors’ independence to MENA regulators and policymakers in an effort to implement an effective corporate governance system. Specifically, MENA banks are advised to decrease the number of board members, and this should reduce the number of annual board meetings which, in turn, should maximize performance. Full article

This study examines the profitability and reliability of a virtual power plant (VPP) with the existence of a diesel genset (DG) in the day-ahead (DA) and intra-day (ID) power markets. The study’s unique contribution lies in integrating the VPP system with non-spinning reserve DG while limiting the DG operation via minimum running time and maximum number of switching times (on/off) per day. This contribution decreases the renewables’ uncertainty and increases the VPP’s reliability. Moreover, the study proposes an optimization model as a decision-making support tool for power market participants to choose the most profitable short-term market. The proposed model suggests choosing the DA market in 62% of time (from 579 days) based on estimated VPP power supply, and market prices. Even though there is uncertainty about VPP power supply and market prices, the division between the plan and actual profits is 1.8 × 10⁶ Japanese yen [JPY] per day on average. The share of surplus power sold from the mentioned gap is 5.5%, which implies the opportunity cost of inaccurate weather forecasting. The results also show that the reliability of the VPP system in the presence of a DG increases from 64.9% to 66.2% for 14 h and mitigates the loss of power load by 1.3%. Full article

To reduce aviation’s climatic impact, there are international, regional and national policies in place and under development. The most firm policy measure to reduce net CO₂ emissions from aviation is ReFuelEU Aviation, requiring 70% of fuel tanked in the EU to be net CO₂-free in 2050. Considering the technological options available, expected improvements in airline operational efficiency and aircraft efficiency, as well as considering behavioral factors that influence aviation travel demand, a path for the complete decarbonization of the Dutch aviation market is provided. The path implies increasing the share of CO₂-free energy carriers to 100% in 2050 for all departing and arriving flights. Methodologically, first, the aggregate ticket price increase as a result of this policy is estimated. Second, demand price elasticity factors are applied to the price increase to estimate the impact of complete decarbonization on the number of passengers carried by the Dutch aviation sector in 2050. The findings outline that a shift to exclusively CO₂-free energy carriers will result in a 15% reduction in the number of passengers in 2050 compared to the market development under ReFuelEU Aviation obligations. The Dutch aviation sector will still grow from 81 million passengers in 2019 to between 98 and 138 million in 2050, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than before 2019. The expected sustainable energy requirements will be 171 PJ per year in 2050, with a likely range between 146 and 206 PJ, representing no substantial change from the 2019 level of 166 PJ. Full article

Objectives: To assess the comparative budget and health impact of lower-dose dabigatran versus reduced doses of apixaban and rivaroxaban in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients eligible for a lower-/reduced-dose due to individual patient characteristics in the Netherlands. Methods: A budget impact model was developed in accordance with ISPOR guidelines. A 3-year-time horizon was considered, and analyses were conducted from a Dutch healthcare payer’s perspective. The model applies published data to local AF-epidemiology, allowing calculations to estimate clinical events (strokes and haemorrhages) and costs. The analyses were based on real-world outcomes from patients with AF receiving a first direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) prescription for low-dose dabigatran (110 mg) and a reduced dose of apixaban (2.5 mg) or rivaroxaban (15 mg). Two situations of switching treatments from one to another DOAC were modelled: switching from apixaban to dabigatran and from rivaroxaban to dabigatran. Base case results were given as savings per 100 patient-year, per total Dutch population, and events avoided. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the uncertainty around epidemiological and event costs input data. Scenario analyses were performed to estimate the effect of different market shares and potential price reductions due to future patent expiry for the total real-world population from the Netherlands. Results: The 3-years outcomes of switching patients eligible for a lower-/reduced-dose due to individual patient characteristics from apixaban or rivaroxaban to dabigatran resulted in cost savings estimated at €157 or €72 thousand per 100 patient-years, respectively, or €146 million per total Dutch population. Looking into the clinical events, dabigatran reflected the lowest number of mortalities, ischemic strokes, major bleeding, non-major bleeding, and haemorrhagic stroke compared to apixaban and rivaroxaban. The sensitivity analysis consistently reflected cost savings, with the ischeamic stroke events having the biggest impact. Accounting for the Dutch situation, both scenarios showed total savings ranging from €45 to €229 million over 3 years. Conclusions: Switching eligible AF-patients from reduced-dose apixaban or rivaroxaban to lower-dose dabigatran has the potential to reduce healthcare payer’s budget expenditures and provide health gains. Cost savings can potentially be further enhanced by market share adjustments and further price reductions. Full article

Introduction: Multiple myeloma (MM) is the most common plasma cell tumor type. In late 2015, the FDA approved three new medications for MM. These medications were ixazomib, daratumumab, and elotuzumab. However, their utilization, reimbursement, and price in the Medicaid program have not been analyzed before. Methods: A retrospective drug utilization study using the national Medicaid pharmacy claims data from 2016 to 2022 in the US. The primary metrics of analysis were utilization (number of prescriptions), reimbursement (total spending), and price (reimbursement per prescription). Results: The overall Medicaid utilization of MM medications increased from 1671 prescriptions in 2016 to 34,583 prescriptions in 2022 (1970% increase). Moreover, the overall Medicaid reimbursement for the new MM medications increased from USD 9,250,000 in 2016 to over USD 214,449,000 in 2022 (2218% increase). Daratumumab had much higher utilization, reimbursement, and market shares than its competitors. Ixazomib was the most expensive medication compared to daratumumab and elotuzumab. Conclusion: The results of this study demonstrate that CMS utilization and spending on MM medications have significantly grown since 2016. Daratumumab has by far the highest utilization, spending, and market share. The utilization of and spending on specific pharmaceuticals are clearly impacted by policy and clinical guideline recommendations. Full article

The prosperity of e-commerce has made more and more businesses willing to enter the e-commerce market, which has also brought a series of strategic collaboration between firms. This study considers game models with and without collaboration between the platform and the retailer. An e-commerce platform has relative logistics service sharing advantages while the retailer has relative procurement advantages. We formulated a multichannel supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and two retailers to explore the feasibility of the above strategic collaboration model. We utilized the Stackelberg game and Nash game approaches to obtain equilibrium solutions under both cooperative and noncooperative scenarios. Through a further analysis, we determined the impacts of the logistics sensitivity, the cost of the unit logistics service effort, the price of shared logistics service per unit, and the price competition intensity on optimal prices, the logistics service efforts, and the profits. Moreover, the collaborative exchange of advantages between the platform and the retailer needs to consider the interests of participating manufacturers in the game. Our extension suggests all three firms should actively promote deeper collaboration. Full article

This study seeks to determine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences investment decisions and the market value of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. This study examines investment and operational data from 249 energy and petroleum companies between 2015 and 2020 and macroeconomic variables such as EPU. This study investigates the moderating effects of EPU on investments in fixed and intangible assets and its effect on Tobin’s Q and the market price per share. The outcomes demonstrate that EPU reduces the costs of both tangible and intangible assets for businesses. In addition, companies with a higher Tobin’s Q and market price per share are more impacted by uncertain corporate investment policies. However, financial leverage is negatively correlated with share price and positively correlated with earnings per share and earnings per unit. Tobin’s Q positively correlates with financial leverage, indicating that firms that raise capital through debt are more likely to create value for investors. The research indicates that market-dependent enterprises are more susceptible to the unpredictability of monetary policy. According to this study, consistent application and open communication of economic policies are likely to increase the efficacy of company investments, resulting in more effective resource allocation and business decision-making. Full article