Search Results (6,194)

Soil erosion is largely driven by climate change and land use dynamics. The objective of this study is to assess the dynamic variation in erosion under the combined effects of precipitation and land use change in the Tigrigra watershed, located in the mountainous region of the Middle Atlas. The RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) model is used in the methodological approach to estimate soil loss based on various parameters such as precipitation, soil, topography, land cover, and conservation practices. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing tools are essential for applying this method. In addition, the CA-Markov model (cellular automata), which models and predicts land use changes over time, is used to project future land cover scenarios that influence soil erosion dynamics. The research focuses on four previous periods (1991–2000, 2001–2010, 2011–2015, and 2016–2023), as well as a future period (2024–2050), considering two climate scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5. Precipitation data from local weather stations and the CMIP5 climate model were used to calculate the R factor (precipitation erosivity). Land cover analysis was performed using Landsat satellite images (30 m resolution) integrated into the CA-Markov model to calculate the C factor (land cover management). The results show that erosion has gradually decreased over both past and future periods, mainly due to variations in precipitation and vegetation cover. It should be noted that the period from 1991–2000 to 2016–2023 shows higher erosion compared to the future periods, with a maximum value of 17.83 t/ha/year recorded between 1991 and 2000. For the future period 2024–2050, a continuous decrease in erosion is observed under both scenarios, with an average value of 15.30 t/ha/year for the RCP2.6 scenario and 15.86 t/ha/year for the RCP4.5 scenario, with erosion remaining slightly higher under RCP4.5. Overall, erosion decreases across both historical (1991–2023) and projected (2024–2050) periods due to reduced rainfall erosivity. The northern part of the basin is particularly prone to erosion due to the low vegetation cover. The results indicate that areas susceptible to erosion require conservation measures to reduce soil loss. Implementing sustainable agricultural practices is crucial for maintaining long-term soil health and preventing degradation. However, some limitations of the study, such as the lack of data on conservation practices and daily precipitation, might affect the overall robustness of the findings. Full article

This study evaluated the water supply and regulation of the San Pedro River basin, located in the municipality of Puerto Libertador (Córdoba, Colombia), under climate change scenarios, using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI-2 algorithm, based on observed streamflow series and sensitive hydrological parameters. Observed and satellite climate data, CHIRPS for precipitation and ERA5-Land for temperature, radiation, humidity, and wind, were employed. Climatic data were integrated along with spatial information on soils, land use, and topography, allowing for an adequate representation of the basin’s heterogeneity. The model showed acceptable performance (NSE > 0.6; PBIAS < ±15%), reproducing the seasonal variability and the average flow behavior. Climate projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, derived from the MIROC5 model (CMIP5), indicated a slight decrease in mean streamflow and an increase in interannual variability for the period 2040–2070, suggesting a potential reduction in surface water availability and natural hydrological regulation by mid-century. The Water Regulation Index (WRI) exhibited a downward trend in most sub-basins, particularly in areas affected by forest loss and agricultural expansion. The WRI showed a downward trend in most sub-basins, especially those with loss of forest cover and a predominance of agricultural uses. These findings provide basin-specific evidence on how climate change and land-use pressures may jointly affect hydrological regulation in tropical Andean–Caribbean basins. These results highlight the usefulness of the SWAT model as a decision-support tool for integrated water resources management in the San Pedro River basin and similar tropical Andean–Caribbean catchments, supporting basin-scale climate adaptation planning. They also emphasize the importance of conserving headwater ecosystems and forest cover to sustain hydrological regulation, reduce vulnerability to flow extremes, and enhance long-term regional water security. Full article

Understanding how avian assemblages respond to seasonal dynamics within urban land-cover structure is crucial for biodiversity conservation in rapidly urbanizing environments. Here, we investigated seasonal variation in avian dietary and foraging location guilds in central Taizhou City, China. Field surveys were conducted using the line transect method from April to November 2024. We assessed seasonal changes in community composition and the relationships between bird guilds and land cover types using multi-response permutation procedure (MRPP), non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), and fourth-corner analysis. Bird community composition exhibited significant seasonal variations (MRPP, p < 0.05), with NMDS ordination showing a clear seasonal separation. Foraging location guilds exhibited more pronounced seasonal fluctuations in individual abundance than the dietary guilds. The Shannon diversity index for dietary guilds peaked in spring, followed by summer and autumn, whereas foraging location guilds exhibited higher diversity in summer and autumn. Fourth-corner analysis identified significant associations between guilds and land cover types, with foraging location guilds demonstrating stronger and more consistent responses to habitat structure than dietary guilds. Together, these results indicate that in urban landscapes, the spatial arrangement of habitats may shape avian foraging behavior more strongly than food availability alone, highlighting the need to integrate both structural and resource-based habitat features into urban planning and conservation. Full article

Aerosol microphysical and optical properties play a crucial role in cloud microphysics, precipitation physics, and flood formation over areas characterized by complex monsoon regimes. This research presents a multi-source data integration approach to analyzing the spatio-temporal interaction between precipitation, aerosols, and flooding in the state of Kerala, incorporating an air mass trajectory analysis to examine its potential contribution to flooding. The results show that the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) values were high in the coastal districts (>0.8) in the La Niña year (2021) but low in the El Niño year (2015). On the precipitation side, 2018 and 2021 were both years with a high degree of anomalies, resulting in heavy rainfall that led to widespread flooding in the Thrissur district, among others. The trajectory analysis revealed that the Indian Ocean controls the precipitation during the southwest monsoon and the pre-monsoon. The post-monsoon precipitation is mainly sourced from the Arabian Peninsula and Arabian Sea, transferring marine aerosols along with desert aerosols. The overall study shows that the variability in aerosols and precipitation is more subject to change by the meteorological dynamics, as well as influenced by the regional changes in land use and land cover, causing fluxes in the land–atmosphere interactions. In conclusion, the present study highlights the possible interactive functions of atmospheric dynamics and anthropogenic land use modifications in generating a flood hazard. It provides essential information for land management policies and disaster risk reduction. Full article

Globally, grasslands, savannas, and wetlands are degrading rapidly and increasingly being replaced by woody vegetation. Woody Plant Encroachment (WPE) disrupts natural landscapes and has significant consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and key ecosystem services. This review synthesizes findings from 159 peer-reviewed studies identified through a PRISMA-guided systematic literature review to evaluate the drivers of WPE, its ecological impacts, and the remote sensing (RS) approaches used to monitor it. The drivers of WPE are multifaceted, involving interactions among climate variability, topographic and edaphic conditions, hydrological change, land use transitions, and altered fire and grazing regimes, while its impacts are similarly diverse, influencing land cover structure, water and nutrient cycles, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and broader implications for ecosystem resilience. Over the past two decades, RS has become central to WPE monitoring, with studies employing classification techniques, spectral mixture analysis, object-based image analysis, change detection, thresholding, landscape pattern and fragmentation metrics, and increasingly, machine learning and deep learning methods. Looking forward, emerging advances such as multi-sensor fusion (optical– synthetic aperture radar (SAR), Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–hyperspectral), cloud-based platforms including Google Earth Engine, Microsoft Planetary Computer, and Digital Earth, and geospatial foundation models offer new opportunities for scalable, automated, and long-term monitoring. Despite these innovations, challenges remain in detecting early-stage encroachment, subcanopy woody growth, and species-specific patterns across heterogeneous landscapes. Key knowledge gaps highlighted in this review include the need for long-term monitoring frameworks, improved socio-ecological integration, species- and ecosystem-specific RS approaches, better utilization of SAR, and broader adoption of analysis-ready data and open-source platforms. Addressing these gaps will enable more effective, context-specific strategies to monitor, manage, and mitigate WPE in rapidly changing environments. Full article

Wildfires are part of terrestrial ecosystem processes; however, their frequency and intensity have recently increased due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. Geospatial data are essential for analyzing land cover changes at high spatial resolution, making the development of tools that use this information to detect burned areas particularly important, especially in regions of high ecological value. This study aimed to detect burned areas within the Iztaccíhuatl–Popocatépetl Protected Natural Area in central Mexico using a logistic regression model based on spectral variables such as NDVI, RBRc, and SWIR2 derived from Sentinel-2 imagery. The agreement between observed and classified data yielded Kappa coefficients and overall accuracy values of 0.79. Model performance varied with probability threshold: low thresholds achieved higher metrics, while high thresholds produced a more conservative delineation that was spatially more coherent with the reference polygons, prioritizing pixels with higher probability of being affected and generating maps more consistent with actual burned areas. Overall, the model performed well in detecting burned areas, providing a useful tool for fire monitoring. However, it is recommended to conduct analyses by vegetation type to increase model accuracy, as phenological variability associated with vegetation types can influence spectral responses and reduce precision. Full article

The sustainability of resources and ecological integrity are significantly influenced by land use and land cover change (LULCC) dynamics, particularly in ecotonal semi-arid regions where biome transitions are highly sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance and climatic variability. This study aims to assess historical LULCC dynamics and spatial reconfiguration across nine classes (grassland, shrubland, wetlands, forestland, waterbodies, farmed land, built-up land, bare land, and mines/quarries) in the C5 Secondary Drainage Region of South Africa over the three periods 1990–2014, 2014–2022, and 1990–2022. Using the South African National Land Cover datasets and the TerrSet liberaGIS v20.03 Land Change Modeller, this research applied post-classification comparison, transition matrices, asymmetric gain–loss metrics, and patch-based landscape analysis to quantify the magnitude, direction, source–sink dynamics, and spatial reconfiguration of LULCC. Results showed that between 1990 and 2014, Shrubland expanded markedly (+49.1%), primarily at the expense of Grassland, Wetlands, and Bare land, indicating bush encroachment and hydrological stress. From 2014 to 2022, the trend reversed as Grassland increased substantially (+261.2%) while Shrubland declined sharply (−99.3%). Forestland also regenerated extensively (+186%) along riparian corridors, and Waterbodies expanded more than fivefold (+384.6 km²). Over the long period between 1990 and 2022, Built-up land (+30.6%), Cultivated land (+16%), Forestland (+140%), Grassland (+94.4%), and Waterbodies (+25.6%) increased, while Bare land (−58.1%), Mines and Quarries (−56.1%), Shrubland (−98.9%), and Wetlands (−82.5%) decreased. Asymmetric analysis revealed strongly directional transitions, with early Grassland-to-Shrubland conversion likely driven by grazing pressure, fire suppression, and climate variability, followed by a later Shrubland-to-Grassland reversal consistent with fire, herbivory, and ecotonal climate sensitivity. LULC dynamics in the C5 catchment show class-specific spatial reconfiguration, declining landscape diversity (SHDI 1.3 → 0.9; SIDI 0.7 → 0.43), and patch metrics indicating urban and cultivated fragmentation, shrubland loss, and grassland consolidation. Based on these quantified trajectories, we recommend targeted catchment-scale land management, shrubland restoration, and monitoring of anthropogenic hotspots to support ecosystem services, hydrological stability, and sustainable land use in ecotonal regions. Full article

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the combined effects of progressive urbanization and changes in precipitation patterns (PPs) on the urban water cycle. The primary objective was to evaluate historical (1940–2024) and projected (to 2060) changes in total annual surface runoff (TSR) and retention capacity (RC) in the highly urbanized catchment of the Dłubnia River in Cracow, Poland. Simulations were performed using the EPA SWMM hydrodynamic model, supported by digitized historical land-use maps and long-term meteorological records. The results demonstrate that the dominant driver of the observed 6.4-fold increase in TSR and 6.8-fold loss of retention capacity (LRC) over the study period was the progressive increase in impervious surfaces. Although inter-annual variability in the amount and structure of annual precipitation (AP) strongly correlates with annual TSR (r = 0.97), its contribution to the long-term upward trend in TSR is marginal (r = 0.19). Land use and land cover change (LULC) exhibits an extremely strong correlation with the long-term TSR trend (r = 0.998). The study also highlights the high effectiveness of nature-based solutions (NbSs), particularly bioretention cells (BCs)/rain gardens, in mitigating the adverse hydrological effects of excessive surface sealing. Implementation of BCs covering just 3–4% of the total drained roof and road area is sufficient to fully offset the projected combined negative impacts of further urbanization and climate change (CC) in scope Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projections on catchment retention capacity by 2060. These findings position strategically targeted, relatively small-scale bioretention as one of the most effective and feasible urban adaptation measures in mature, densely developed cities. Full article

This study is essential for medium- and long-term land-use management, as land-use patterns directly influence local economic and social development. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques are fundamental tools for analyzing a wide range of geomorphological processes, including relief fragmentation density, relief energy, soil texture, slope gradient, and slope orientation. The present research focuses on the Pesceana river basin in the Southern Carpathians, Romania. It addresses three main objectives: (1) to analyze land-use dynamics derived from CORINE Land Cover (CLC) data between 1990 and 2018, along with the long-term distribution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 2000–2025; (2) to evaluate the basin’s natural potential byintegrating topographic data (contour lines and profiles) with relief fragmentation density, relief energy, vegetation cover, soil texture, slope gradient, aspect, the Stream Power Index (SPI), and the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI); and (3) to assess the spatial distribution of habitat types, characteristic plant associations, and soil properties obtained through field investigations. For the first two research objectives, ArcGIS v. 10.7.2 served as the main tool for geospatial processing. For the third, field data were essential for geolocating soil samples and defining vegetation types across the entire 247 km² area. The spatiotemporal analysis from 1990 to 2018 reveals a landscape in which deciduous forests clearly dominate; they expanded from an initial area of 80 km² in 1990 to over 90 km² in 2012–2018. This increase, together with agricultural expansion, is reflected in the NDVI values after 2000, which show a sharp increase in vegetation density. Interestingly, other categories—such as water bodies, natural grasslands, and industrial areas—barely changed, each consistently representing less than 1 km² throughout the study period. These findings emphasize the importance of land-use/land-cover (LULC) data within the applied GIS model, which enhances the spatial characterization of geomorphological processes—such as vegetation distribution, soil texture, slope morphology, and relief fragmentation density. This integration allows a realistic assessment of the physical–geographic, landscape, and pedological conditions of the river basin. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive geospatial framework for assessing coastal vulnerability and ecosystem service distribution along the Greek coastline, one of the longest and most diverse in Europe. The framework integrates two complementary components: a Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index applied to all identified beach units, and Coastal Flood Risk Indexes focused on low-lying and urbanized coastal segments. Both indices draw on harmonized, open-access European datasets to represent environmental, geomorphological, and socio-economic dimensions of risk. The Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index is developed through a multi-criteria approach that combines indicators of physical erodibility, such as historical shoreline retreat, projected erosion under climate change, offshore wave power, and the cover of seagrass meadows, with socio-economic exposure metrics, including land use composition, population density, and beach-based recreational values. Inclusive accessibility for wheelchair users is also integrated to highlight equity-relevant aspects of coastal services. The Coastal Flood Risk Indexes identify flood-prone areas by simulating inundation through a novel point-based, computationally efficient geospatial method, which propagates water inland from coastal entry points using Extreme Sea Level (ESL) projections for future scenarios, overcoming the limitations of static ‘bathtub’ approaches. Together, the indices offer a spatially explicit, scalable framework to inform coastal zone management, climate adaptation planning, and the prioritization of nature-based solutions. By integrating vulnerability mapping with ecosystem service valuation, the framework supports evidence-based decision-making while aligning with key European policy goals for resilience and sustainable coastal development. Full article

The West Liaohe River Basin, a core arid region in Northeast China, faces a significant evaporation–precipitation imbalance and exhibits fragmented land systems, epitomized by the Horqin Sandy Land. Integrating three decades of land use/land cover (LULC) data with meteorological, ecological, and socioeconomic variables, we employed obstacle diagnosis and structural equation modeling (SEM) to elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of LULC transformations. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Land use exhibited a spatially heterogeneous pattern, with forests, shrubs, and grasslands predominantly concentrated in the northwest and southwest. (2) Vegetation coverage significantly increased from 53.15% in 1990 to 61.32% in 2020, whereas cropland and sandy land areas declined. While the overall basin landscape underwent a marked increase in fragmentation. (3) Human activities were the dominant contributor of LULC changes, particularly for cropland conversion, with key determinants such as population and GDP showing negative path coefficients of −0.59 and −0.77, respectively. Climate change was a secondary contributor, with precipitation exerting a strong positive path coefficient (0.63) that was particularly pronounced during the conversion of grassland to forest. These findings offer a scientific basis for land management, ecological restoration strategies, and water resource utilization in the basin. Full article

In recent years, human activities have impacted surface water and groundwater and their interactions with natural water bodies. Lake Cuitzeo is one of Mexico’s most important water bodies but has significantly reduced its flooded area in recent years. Previous studies did not explicitly evaluate the combined effects of hydrological variables on lake dynamics, limiting the understanding of how basin-scale processes influence lake-level. The objective of this study is to evaluate the change in spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological variables under climatic and anthropogenic stress in the Lake Cuitzeo endorheic basin. The proposed methodology uses the SWAT model to analyze at the basin scale, land use and land cover changes, and trends in precipitation and their effect on hydrological processes. Consequently, groundwater flow interactions were assessed for the first time for the Cuitzeo Lake Basin using an automatically coupled SWAT-MODFLOW (v3, 2019), despite limited observational data. A statistically significant change in mean precipitation was detected beginning in 2015, with a decrease of 10.22% compared to the 1973–2014 mean. Land use and land cover changes between 1997 and 2013 resulted in a 26.20% increase in surface runoff. In contrast, estimated evapotranspiration decreased by 1.77%, potentially associated with the reduction in forest cover. As a combined effect of decreased precipitation and land use and land cover change, groundwater percolation declined by 6.34%. Overall, the combined effects of climatic variables and anthropogenic activities have altered lake–aquifer interaction. Full article

Investigating the spatial distribution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage is vital for climate change mitigation. However, horizontal spatial analyses often overlook heterogeneity in complex terrains. Here, we focused on the Gonghe Basin on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, where resource exploitation and ecological conservation interact. By using land use and DEM data and integrating the InVEST model, Geoda, and a geographical detector, we showed the altitudinal gradient effect and spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage in the Gonghe Basin from 2000 to 2020 and identified the key factors influencing these patterns. Results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage in the Gonghe Basin exhibited a distinct pattern of “high at mid-elevations, low at both summit and valley” along the elevation gradient. High-value areas were concentrated in the forest–grassland zone between 2800–4400 m, while low-value areas were distributed in the human activity-intensive zone of 2100–2800 m and the alpine desert zone of 4400–5000 m. (2) The synergistic drivers of carbon storage differed markedly across elevation gradients. The low-elevation zone (2100–2800 m) was characterized by strengthened interactions between vegetation cover and precipitation as well as human activity variables, indicating a coupled natural–anthropogenic driving regime. In the mid-elevation zone (2800–4400 m), interactive effects shifted from vegetation–natural factor coupling to enhanced synergy with social factors such as population density. In the high-elevation zone (4400–5000 m), stable long-term interactions between vegetation and temperature predominated, while sensitivity to interactions involving human activity factors increased. (3) Although natural factors remained dominant, the explanatory power of human activity factors—including GDP density, land-use intensity, and grazing intensity—increased over time across all elevation gradients, suggesting progressively stronger human intervention in carbon cycling. (4) Based on these findings, this study proposes a “three belts–three strategies” synergistic governance framework—“regulation and restoration” for the low-elevation belt, “conservation and efficiency enhancement” for the mid-elevation belt, and “monitoring and early warning” for the high-elevation belt—aiming to enhance regional carbon sink capacity and ecological resilience through zone-specific, targeted interventions. These findings offer a scientific basis for reinforcing regional ecological security and improving carbon sink management. Full article

This study explores the potential for afforestation in Portugal that could balance wood and non-wood forest production under future climate change scenarios. The Climate Envelope Models (CEM) approach was employed with three main objectives: (1) to model the current distribution of key Portuguese forest species—eucalypts, maritime pine, umbrella pine, chestnut, and cork oak—based on their suitability for wood and non-wood production; (2) to project their potential distribution for the years 2070 and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2–4.5 (moderate) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions); and (3) to generate integrated species distribution maps identifying both current and future high-suitability zones to support afforestation planning, reflecting climatic compatibility under fixed thresholds. Species’ current CMEs were produced using an additive Boolean model with a set of environmental variables (e.g., temperature-related and precipitation-related, elevation, and soil) specific to each species. Species’ current CEMs were validated using forest inventory data and the official Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of Portugal, and a good agreement was obtained (>99%). By the end of the 21st century, marked reductions in species suitability are projected, especially for chestnut (36%–44%) and maritime pine (25%–35%). Incorporating future suitability projections and preventive silvicultural practices into afforestation planning is therefore essential to ensure climate-resilient and ecologically friendly forest management. Full article

Assessing the dynamics between native forests and exotic tree plantations is key to understanding the drivers of native forest transformation and conservation challenges. We examined these dynamics across four zones in the Los Ríos and Los Lagos regions of southern Chile: the Coastal Range, Central Valley, Andes, and Chiloé. Changes from 2002–2012 and 2012–2022 were analyzed using satellite image classifications and landscape metrics (total area, mean patch size, number of patches, patch density, mean Euclidean nearest-neighbor distance). In both periods, in zones with strong human influence, such as the Coastal Range and Central Valley, native forest area decreased and became more fragmented, whereas exotic tree plantations initially expanded and then declined, resulting in a net increase. Transitions between native forests and exotic plantations showed strong bidirectional substitutions. In less disturbed zones, such as the Andes and Chiloé, native forests expanded in area and connectivity. Overall, native forest cover increased in the Andes (+12.85 km²) and Chiloé. (+6.19 km²) but declined in the Coastal Range (−0.65 km²) and Central Valley (−7.75 km²), whereas exotic plantations showed a net expansion across all zones. These contrasting trajectories underscore the need for reliable monitoring tools to support effective forest management. Full article